External validation of a prediction model for estimating fat mass in children and adolescents in 19 countries: individual participant data meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of a UK based prediction model for estimating fat-free mass (and indirectly fat mass) in children and adolescents in non-UK settings. DESIGN: Individual participant data meta-analysis. SETTING: 19 countries. PARTICIPANTS: 5693 children and adolescents (49.7% boys) aged 4 to 15 years with complete data on the predictors included in the UK based model (weight, height, age, sex, and ethnicity) and on the independently assessed outcome measure (fat-free mass determined by deuterium dilution assessment). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome of the UK based prediction model was natural log transformed fat-free mass (lnFFM). Predictive performance statistics of R2, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large, and root mean square error were assessed in each of the 19 countries and then pooled through random effects meta-analysis. Calibration plots were also derived for each country, including flexible calibration curves. RESULTS: The model showed good predictive ability in non-UK populations of children and adolescents, providing R2 values of >75% in all countries and >90% in 11 of the 19 countries, and with good calibration (ie, agreement) of observed and predicted values. Root mean square error values (on fat-free mass scale) were <4 kg in 17 of the 19 settings. Pooled values (95% confidence intervals) of R2, calibration slope, and calibration-in-the-large were 88.7% (85.9% to 91.4%), 0.98 (0.97 to 1.00), and 0.01 (-0.02 to 0.04), respectively. Heterogeneity was evident in the R2 and calibration-in-the-large values across settings, but not in the calibration slope. Model performance did not vary markedly between boys and girls, age, ethnicity, and national income groups. To further improve the accuracy of the predictions, the model equation was recalibrated for the intercept in each setting so that country specific equations are available for future use. CONCLUSION: The UK based prediction model, which is based on readily available measures, provides predictions of childhood fat-free mass, and hence fat mass, in a range of non-UK settings that explain a large proportion of the variability in observed fat-free mass, and exhibit good calibration performance, especially after recalibration of the intercept for each population. The model demonstrates good generalisability in both low-middle income and high income populations of healthy children and adolescents aged 4-15 years.

Economic evaluation of a 100% whey-based partially hydrolyzed infant formula in the prevention of atopic dermatitis among Danish children.

OBJECTIVE: A pharmacoeconomic analysis was undertaken to determine costs, consequences, and cost-effectiveness of a brand of partially hydrolyzed 100%-whey formula manufactured by Nestlé (PHF-W), in the prevention of atopic dermatitis (AD) in 'at risk' Danish children compared to extensively hydrolyzed formula (EHF-Whey or Casein). METHODS: Given the non-significant differences between PHF-W and EHF, the base case analytic approach amounted to a cost-minimization analysis (CMA) reporting the difference in formula acquisition costs over the period of formula consumption for the population of interest. However, sensitivity analyses (SAs) were undertaken to explore applying the nominal efficacy of PHF-W and EHF, thus leading to a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Hence, an economic model based on a 12-month time horizon was developed synthesizing treatment pathways, resource utilization, and costs associated with the treatment of AD in the population of interest. The final economic outcome of the SAs was the incremental cost per avoided case (ICER) defined as the expected cost per avoided case of AD for PHF-W vs EHF, determined from three perspectives: the Ministry of Health (MOH), the family of the subject, and society (SOC). RESULTS: In the base case CMA, savings of DKK 9 M, DKK 20 M, and DKK 29 M were generated for PHF-W vs EHF from the MOH, family, and SOC perspectives. In the sensitivity CEA, PHF-W was dominant over EHF-Whey from all perspectives, while EHF-Casein displayed against PHF-W unattractive ICERs of DKK 315,930, DKK 408,407, and DKK 724,337 from the MOH, family, and SOC perspectives. Probabilistic SAs indicated that PHF-W was 86% likely to be dominant over EHF-Whey, whereas EHF-Casein had no likelihood of dominating PHF-W. CONCLUSION: Under a range of assumptions, this analysis demonstrated the attractiveness of PHF-W vs both types of EHF in the prevention of AD among 'at risk' Danish infants who are not or cannot be exclusively breastfed.

Partially hydrolysed 100% whey-based infant formula and the prevention of atopic dermatitis: comparative pharmacoeconomic analyses.

Clinical trials have demonstrated that the risk of developing atopic dermatitis is reduced when using hydrolysed formulas to feed infants with a documented risk of atopy (i.e. an affected parent and/or sibling)when breastfeeding is not practised. However, little is known about the cost-effectiveness of using hydrolysed formulas. Consequently, economic analyses in 5 European countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Spain and Switzerland) have evaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of a specific brand of 100% whey-based partially hydrolysed infant formula, NAN-HA® (PHF-W) compared with a cow's milk standard formula (SF) in the prevention of atopic dermatitis in at-risk children. This review synthesises the findings of these studies. Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) used a decision-analytic model to determine treatment pathways, resource utilisation and costs associated with the management of atopic dermatitis in healthy at-risk newborns who were not exclusively breastfed. The model had a 12-month horizon and applied reimbursement rates of 60-100% depending on the country. Outcomes were considered from the perspective of the public healthcare system (e.g. the Ministry of Health; MOH), family and society. The final outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per avoided case of atopic dermatitis (ICER) for PHF-W versus SF. A cost-minimisation analysis was also performed to compare PHF-W with extensively hydrolysed formulas (EHF). The base-case CEA produced ICERs per avoided case for PHF-W versus SF of EUR 982-1,343 (MOH perspective), EUR -2,202 to -624 (family perspective) indicating savings, and EUR -1,220 to 719 from the societal perspective. The main costs related to formula (MOH and society) and time loss (family). In the cost-minimisation analysis, PHF-W yielded savings of between EUR 4.3 and 120 million compared with EHF-whey when the latter was used in prevention. In conclusion, PHF-W was cost-effective versus SF in the prevention of atopic dermatitis and cost saving compared with EHF when used in prevention.

Economic evaluation of a 100% whey-based, partially hydrolysed formula in the prevention of atopic dermatitis among French children.

OBJECTIVE: A pharmacoeconomic analysis was performed to determine costs, consequences and cost effectiveness of a partially hydrolysed 100% whey-based infant formula, NAN HA, manufactured by Nestlé S.A, Switzerland (PHF-W) and branded under Nidal Excel HA in France, in the prevention of atopic dermatitis (AD) in 'at risk' children when compared to standard cows' milk formula (SF) in France. METHODS: A decision-analytic economic model depicting AD treatment pathways, as well as resource utilisation and costs associated with the treatment of AD in healthy yet 'at risk' French newborns who cannot be exclusively breastfed was constructed for a 12-month time horizon, including an initial 6 months of intervention with formula consumption. Model inputs were based on the literature, official formularies and expert opinion. The modelled treatment pathways included a dietary management approach (formula change), a medical treatment approach and a combination thereof. The final outcome was the expected cost per avoided case of AD, yielding an incremental cost per avoided case (ICER) of AD when comparing subjects who used PHF-W versus SF. Outcomes were presented from three perspectives: the French Ministry of Health (MOH), the subjects' family and society as a whole. A secondary analysis also compared PHF-W to extensively hydrolysed formula (EHF) in prevention. RESULTS: The number of avoided AD cases by selecting PHF-W over SF was 13,356 cases in a birth cohort of 185,298 'at risk' infants. The base case analysis, at 65% reimbursement, yielded expected ICERs of €1343, € -624 (savings) and €719 from the MOH, family and societal perspectives, respectively. From all three perspectives, the highest cost was attributable to formula. In case of a 35% reimbursement rate for PHF-W, the ICER was €615 from the MOH perspective, while the use of PHF-W was cost neutral at 10% reimbursement. PHF-W was cost-saving against EHF (€98-€116 million savings depending on type of EHF), when this latter was used in prevention. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the model. CONCLUSION: Under a certain range of assumptions, this analysis based on predictive modelling has established the cost effectiveness of PHF-W in the prevention of AD in infants.

Sustainable clinical research, health economic aspects and medical marketing: drivers of product innovation.

Marketing-driven innovation in the field of pediatric nutrition, in particular in the infant formula segment is not sustainable. New benefits of products must be scientifically proven and safety and efficacy of new formulae established in clinical trials. The scientific innovation process of three infant formulae is described. Improvement in protein quality allowed to reduce the protein concentration in whey-based infant formula. Weight gain and BMI of infants fed those formulae corresponds to breastfed infants and is lower than in infants fed traditional formulae with higher protein concentration. A meta-analysis indicates associations between rapid weight gain in infancy and obesity later in life. If infants cannot be exclusively breastfed until 4-6 months of age, feeding low-protein formulae may contribute to positive long-term health outcome with potentially important health economic effects. A partially hydrolyzed whey based formula for prevention of allergic symptoms in children with hereditary risk for allergic diseases was developed more than 25 years ago. The most recent meta-analysis which included 15 randomized clinical trials indicates that the risk of all allergic diseases and atopic dermatitis/eczema is significantly reduced in infants at risk when the partially hydrolyzed formula is fed. The partially hydrolyzed formula had the same protective effect as casein-based high-degree extensively hydrolyzed formula. Because of substantial price differences between the two formulae, feeding the partially hydrolyzed whey formula is cost saving. Hypoallergenic claims can be made in many countries, and international nutrition committees have positively commented the preventive effect of those formulae. Acidified formulae have been widely used during the last decade in replacement feeding programs for infants whose mothers are HIV positive. The formula was innovated by improving whey protein quality and lowering protein concentration. The bacteriostatic properties of the new formula were proven in in vitro tests. Meta-analysis indicated that feeding the formula to immunocompromised infants resulted in growth similar to breastfeeding. The bacteriostatic effects of the acidified formula need to be communicated to health care professionals, but also the risks if replacement feeding is not acceptable, feasible, affordable, sustainable, and safe for mother and infant.