Bayesian pairwise meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes in the presence of non-proportional hazards: A simulation study of flexible parametric, piecewise exponential and fractional polynomial models.

BACKGROUND: Traditionally, meta-analysis of time-to-event outcomes reports a single pooled hazard ratio assuming proportional hazards (PH). For health technology assessment evaluations, hazard ratios are frequently extrapolated across a lifetime horizon. However, when treatment effects vary over time, an assumption of PH is not always valid. The Royston-Parmar (RP), piecewise exponential (PE), and fractional polynomial (FP) models can accommodate non-PH and provide plausible extrapolations of survival curves beyond observed data. METHODS: Simulation study to assess and compare the performance of RP, PE, and FP models in a Bayesian framework estimating restricted mean survival time difference (RMSTD) at 50 years from a pairwise meta-analysis with evidence of non-PH. Individual patient data were generated from a mixture Weibull distribution. Twelve scenarios were considered varying the amount of follow-up data, number of trials in a meta-analysis, non-PH interaction coefficient, and prior distributions. Performance was assessed through bias and mean squared error. Models were applied to a metastatic breast cancer example. RESULTS: FP models performed best when the non-PH interaction coefficient was 0.2. RP models performed best in scenarios with complete follow-up data. PE models performed well on average across all scenarios. In the metastatic breast cancer example, RMSTD at 50-years ranged from -14.6 to 8.48 months. CONCLUSIONS: Synthesis of time-to-event outcomes and estimation of RMSTD in the presence of non-PH can be challenging and computationally intensive. Different approaches make different assumptions regarding extrapolation and sensitivity analyses varying key assumptions are essential to check the robustness of conclusions to different assumptions for the underlying survival function.

Adding a Gene Expression Profile Test to Aid Differential Diagnosis and Treatment in Aggressive Large B-Cell Lymphoma: An Early Exploratory Economic Evaluation.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Adding gene expression profiles (GEPs) to the current diagnostic work-up of aggressive large B-cell lymphomas may lead to the reclassification of patients, treatment changes and improved outcomes. A GEP test is in development using TempO-Seq® technology to distinguish Burkitt lymphoma (BL) and primary mediastinal large B-cell lymphoma (PMBCL) from diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and to classify patients with DLBLC and to predict the benefit of (e.g.) adding bortezomib to R-CHOP therapy (RB-CHOP). This study aims to estimate the potential impact of a GEP test on costs and health outcomes to inform pricing and evidence generation strategies. METHODS: Three decision models were developed comparing diagnostic strategies with and without GEP signatures over a lifetime horizon using a UK health and social care perspective. Inputs were taken from a recent clinical trial, literature and expert opinion. We estimated the maximum price of the test using a threshold of Great Britain Pound (GBP) 30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The estimated maximum threshold price for a combined test to be cost effective is GBP 15,352. At base-case values, the BL signature delivers QALY gains of 0.054 at an additional cost of GBP 275. This results in a net monetary benefit at a threshold of GBP 30,000 per QALY of GBP 1345. For PMBCL, the QALY gain was 0.0011 at a cost saving of GBP 406 and the net monetary benefit was GBP 437. The hazard ratio for the impact of treating BL less intensively must be at least 1.2 for a positive net monetary benefit. For identifying patients with the DLBCL subtype responsive to bortezomib, QALY gain was 0.2465 at a cost saving of GBP 6175, resulting in a net monetary benefit of GBP 13,570. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using 1000 simulations, a testing strategy was superior to a treat all with R-CHOP strategy in 81% of the simulations and with a cost saving in 92% assuming a cost price of zero. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates show that the combined test has a high probability of being cost effective. There is good quality evidence for the benefit of subtyping DLBCL but the evidence on the number of patients reclassified to or from BL and PMBCL and the impact of a more precise diagnosis and the cost of treatment is weak. The developers can use the price estimate to inform a return on investment calculations. Evidence will be required of how well the TempO-Seq® technology performs compared to the testing GEP technology used for subtyping in the recent clinical trial. For BL and PMBCL elements of the test, evidence would be required of the number of patients reclassified and improved costing information would be useful. The diagnostic and therapeutic environment in haematological malignancies is fast moving, which increases the risk for developers of diagnostic tests.

Central Venous Access Devices for the Delivery of Systemic Anticancer Therapy: An Economic Evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: Patients undergoing long-term anticancer therapy typically require one of 3 venous access devices: Hickman-type device (HICK), peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC), or implantable chest wall port (PORT). Recent evidence has shown PORT is safer and improves patient satisfaction. However, PORT did not show improvement in quality-adjusted life-years and was more expensive. Decisions regarding cost-effectiveness in the United Kingdom are typically informed by a cost-per-quality-adjusted life-year metric. However, this approach is limited in its ability to capture the full range of relevant outcomes, especially in the context of medical devices. This study assessed the potential cost-effectiveness of HICK, PICC, and PORT in routine clinical practice. METHODS: This is a cost-consequence analysis to determine the trade-offs between the following outcomes: complication, infection, noninfection, chemotherapy interruption, unplanned device removals, health utilities, device insertion cost, follow-up cost, and total cost, using data from the Cancer and Venous Access clinical trial. We conducted value of implementation analysis of a PORT service. RESULTS: PORT was superior in terms of overall complication rate compared with both HICK (incidence rate ratio 0.422; 95% CI 0.286-0.622) and PICC (incidence rate ratio 0.295; 95% CI 0.189-0.458) and less likely to lead to an unplanned device removal. There was no difference in chemotherapy interruption or health utilities. Total cost with device in situ was lower on PORT than HICK (-£98.86; 95% CI -189.20 to -8.53) and comparable with PICC -£48.57 (95% CI -164.99 to 67.86). Value of implementation analysis found that PORT was likely to be considered cost-effective within the National Health Service. CONCLUSION: Decision makers should consider including PORT within the suite of venous access devices available within in the National Health Service.

The extent and quality of qualitative evidence included in health technology assessments: a review of submissions to NICE and CADTH.

OBJECTIVES: Qualitative methods allow in-depth exploration of patient experiences and can provide context for healthcare decision making. Frameworks for patient-based evidence in health technology assessment (HTA) are expanding; yet, how extensively qualitative methods are currently used is unclear. This review characterized the extent and quality of qualitative data submitted to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH) for HTA. METHODS: NICE and CADTH submissions from September 2019 to August 2021 were reviewed. Submission characteristics and features of patient-based evidence included within submissions were extracted. The quality of qualitative reporting was assessed using the CASP checklist. RESULTS: Patient-based evidence was included in 83/107 NICE and 119/124 CADTH submissions. A small proportion described qualitative data collection (NICE=14; CADTH=24) and analysis (NICE=6; CADTH=9) methods. One-to-one interviews were the most common data collection method, and thematic analysis was exclusively used. Thirty-three percent of NICE submissions scored >7 yes responses on CASP, versus 78 percent of CADTH submissions. CONCLUSIONS: Although patient-based evidence was common in the submissions reviewed, only 14/107 NICE and 24/124 CADTH submissions involved formal qualitative data collection. Use of formal analysis methods was even rarer and reporting tended to be brief. At present, there is little guidance about qualitative evidence most likely to be informative and therefore to potentially impact decision making. Ensuring, however, that qualitative data are collected and analyzed in a systematic, rigorous way will maximize their usefulness and ensure that patient voices are clearly heard.

Is Intention to Treat Still the Gold Standard or Should Health Technology Assessment Agencies Embrace a Broader Estimands Framework?: Insights and Perspectives From the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence and Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen on the International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use E9 (R1) Addendum.

OBJECTIVES: The International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) E9 (R1) addendum will have an important impact on the design and analysis of randomized controlled clinical trials, which represent crucial sources of evidence in health technology assessments, and on the intention-to-treat (ITT) principle in particular. This article brings together a task force of health economists and statisticians in academic institutes and the pharmaceutical industry, to examine the implications of the addendum from the perspective of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen (IQWiG) and to address the question of whether the ITT principle should be considered the gold standard for estimating treatment effects. METHODS: We review the ITT principle, as introduced in the ICH E9 guideline. We then present an overview of the ICH E9 (R1) addendum and its estimand framework, highlighting its premise and the proposed strategies for handling intercurrent events, and examine some cases among submissions to IQWiG and NICE. RESULTS: IQWiG and NICE appear to have diverging perspectives around the relevance of the ITT principle and, in particular, the acceptance of hypothetical strategies for estimating treatment effects, as suggested by examples where the sponsor proposed an alternative approach to the ITT principle when accounting for treatment switching for interventional oncology trials. CONCLUSIONS: The ICH E9 (R1) addendum supports the use of methods that depart from the ITT principle. The relevance of estimands using these methods depends on the perspectives and objectives of payers. It is challenging to design a study that meets all stakeholders' research questions. Different estimands may serve to answer different relevant questions or decision problems.

Lipid Lowering in "Very High Risk" Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery and Its Projected Reduction in Risk for Recurrent Vascular Events: A Monte Carlo Stepwise Simulation Approach.

ABSTRACT: 2018 AHA guidelines provide criteria to identify patients at very high risk (VHR) for adverse vascular events and recommend an low density lipoprotein-C (LDL-C) level <1.8 mmol/L. Data regarding the 10-year risk for adverse vascular events in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) patients at VHR and the need for nonstatin therapies in the VHR cohort are limited. We queried a national cohort of CABG patients to answer these questions. The projected reduction of LDL-C from stepwise escalation of lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) was simulated; Monte Carlo methods were used to account for patient-level heterogeneity in treatment effects. Data on preoperative statin therapy and LDL-C levels were obtained. In the first scenario, all eligible patients not at target LDL-C received high-intensity statins, followed by ezetimibe and then alirocumab; alternatively, bempedoic acid was also used. The 10-year risk for an adverse vascular event was estimated using a validated risk score. Potential risk reduction was estimated after simulating maximal LLT. Before CABG, 8948 of 27,443 patients (median LDL-C 85 mg/dL) were at VHR. In the whole cohort, 31% were receiving high-intensity statins. With stepwise LLT escalation, the proportion of patients at target were 60%, 78%, 86%, and 97% after high-intensity statins, ezetimibe, bempedoic acid, and alirocumab, respectively. The projected 10-year risk to suffer a vascular event reduced by 4.6%. A large proportion of CABG patients who are at VHR for vascular events fail to meet 2018 AHA LDL-C targets. A stepwise approach, particularly with the use of bempedoic acid, can significantly reduce the need for more expensive proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin 9 inhibitors.

Economic evaluation of genomic/genetic tests: a review and future directions.

It has been suggested that health economists need to improve their methods in order to meet the challenges of evaluating genomic/genetic tests. In this article, we set out twelve challenges identified from a rapid review of the literature and suggest solutions to the challenges identified. Two challenges were common to all economic evaluations: choice of perspective and time-horizon. Five challenges were relevant for all diagnostic technologies: complexity of analysis; range of costs; under-developed evidence base; behavioral aspects; and choice of outcome metrics. The final five challenges were pertinent for genomic tests and only these may require methodological development: heterogeneity of tests and platforms, increasing stratification, capturing personal utility; incidental findings; and spillover effects. Current methods of economic evaluation are generally able to cope with genomic/genetic tests, although a renewed focus on specific decision-makers' needs and a willingness to move away from cost-utility analysis may be required. Certain analysts may be constrained by reference cases developed primarily for the assessment of pharmaceuticals. The combined impact of multiple challenges may require analysts to be particularly careful in setting the scope of their analysis in order to ensure that feasibility is balanced with usefulness to the decision maker. A key issue is the under-developed evidence-base and it may be necessary to rethink translation processes to ensure sufficient, relevant evidence is available to support economic evaluation and adoption of genomic/genetic tests.

Economic and Humanistic Burden of Cerebral Vasospasm and Its Related Complications after Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Systematic Literature Review.

INTRODUCTION: Cerebral vasospasm (VSP) is the leading risk factor of neurological deterioration (i.e., delayed cerebral ischemia [DCI] and cerebral infarction) after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) and a cause of morbidity and mortality. The objective of this systematic literature review is to summarize the economic and humanistic burden of VSP and its related complications after aSAH. METHODS: A predefined protocol was designed, and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed. Systematic searches were conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane (in January 2021) to identify studies reporting economic and/or humanistic (i.e., health-related quality of life [HRQoL]) outcomes for patients with asymptomatic and symptomatic VSP after aSAH. Related conferences and additional sources were searched manually. Dual screening, data extraction, and qualitative analysis were conducted. RESULTS: Of 3818 abstracts identified for review, 43 full-text articles representing 42 single studies met the inclusion criteria and were included. Most studies (33) were observational; nine were randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Economic outcomes were reported in 31 studies, and alongside HRQoL outcomes in 4 studies; 7 studies reported HRQoL outcomes only. Forty studies were conducted in single countries, while only 2 RCTs were conducted in multiple countries. Patients diagnosed with VSP or DCI spent between 2.1 and 7.4 days longer in intensive care and between 4.7 and 17 days longer in hospital (total) compared with patients without VSP or DCI. A significantly higher cost burden of US$33,945 (2021 £26,712) was identified for patients with VSP and £9370 (2021 £13,733) for patients with DCI compared with patients without. Patients with DCI were also disadvantaged by being employed for 62 fewer days (during 24-month follow-up), with an estimated mean cost of £3821 (2021 £5600) for days off work. Poor HRQoL was associated with ≥ 1 days with VSP symptoms (odds ratio [OR]: 2.8, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4-5.3), symptomatic VSP (OR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.0-3.6), and DCI (OR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.3-4.2), although this was not consistent across all studies. Symptomatic VSP and DCI were identified as significant risk factors for depressed mood (OR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.0-4.9) and global cognitive impairment (OR: 2.3) at 12 months, respectively. The severity of VSP was a critical predictor of post-aSAH economic and humanistic burden. Similar trends in economic and humanistic burden were identified in the general aSAH patient population. Study design and patient heterogeneity precluded direct metaanalysis of the results. CONCLUSION: A substantial direct and indirect economic burden is linked to VSP and its related complications after aSAH. Although limited evidence was identified for humanistic burden, these patients seem to suffer from poor HRQoL with long-lasting burden. Overall, there is an urgent need to understand better the concept of "burden of illness" of VSP and its related complications after aSAH.

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage is a sudden, life-threatening emergency caused by bleeding in the subarachnoid space between the brain and skull. Vasospasm of the arteries surrounding the hemorrhage occurs in most patients and may lead to permanent brain damage. This study summarizes the published literature to describe the burden that patients may experience due to vasospasm and its related complications after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, focusing on financial and life quality aspects. We show that the burden of vasospasm, and its related complications, is huge. Patients often experience reduced quality of life due to their poor health and are more likely to suffer from depression and intellectual impairment. There is also a substantial financial burden linked to vasospasm and its related complications, driven by the need for more intensive care, hospitalization, and higher investigative costs associated with the treatment and management of these patients. In addition, days off work and unemployment can cause a substantial indirect financial burden. Our study highlights the need for additional research to understand further the "burden of illness" of vasospasm and its related complications after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

Economic evaluation of betibeglogene autotemcel (Beti-cel) gene addition therapy in transfusion-dependent ß-thalassemia.

Background: Standard of care (SoC) for transfusion-dependent ß-thalassemia (TDT) requires lifelong, regular blood transfusions as well as chelation to reduce iron accumulation. Objective: This study investigates the cost-effectiveness of betibeglogene autotemcel ('beti-cel'; LentiGlobin for ß-thalassemia) one-time, gene addition therapy compared to lifelong SoC for TDT. Study design: Microsimulation model simulated the lifetime course of TDT based on a causal sequence in which transfusion requirements determine tissue iron levels, which in turn determine risk of iron overload complications that increase mortality. Clinical trial data informed beti-cel clinical parameters; effects of SoC on iron levels came from real-world studies; iron overload complication rates and mortality were based on published literature. Setting: USA; commercial payer perspective Participants: TDT patients age 2-50 Interventions: Beti-cel is compared to SoC. Main outcome measure: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) utilizing quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) Results: The model predicts beti-cel adds 3.8 discounted life years (LYs) or 6.9 QALYs versus SoC. Discounted lifetime costs were $2.28 M for beti-cel ($572,107 if excluding beti-cel cost) and $2.04 M for SoC, with a resulting ICER of $34,833 per QALY gained. Conclusion: Beti-cel is cost-effective for TDT patients compared to SoC. This is due to longer survival and cost offset of lifelong SoC.

Proposal for capturing patient experience through extended value frameworks of health technologies.

BACKGROUND: Inclusion of patient experience (PEx) in health technology assessment (HTA) has become increasingly important; however, no harmonized approach exists to help manufacturers or decision makers ensure PEx considerations are fair, consistent, and thorough within global HTA frameworks. OBJECTIVE: To develop a proposal for including PEx in the HTA frameworks of health technologies. METHODS: A systematic literature review (SLR) on existing value frameworks (VFs) was conducted to capture how PEx-related value judgment is currently considered. Guided by the results of the SLR, a research group including HTA experts and patient representatives used an iterative process to develop potential value domains to capture PEx, in accordance with international guidelines. Subsequently, a panel of international payer experts was used to challenge the proposed PEx domains and provide recommendations for implementation. RESULTS: The SLR found 61 VFs and multi-criteria decision analyses (MCDAs) that considered PEx; however, PEx-related value elements were often referred to superficially, without clear definitions. Five potential PEx domains, with proposed measures for each, were developed and refined using expert feedback: (1) responsiveness to patient's individual needs, (2) improved health literacy and empowerment, (3) patient and caregiver reported outcomes, (4) household's financial burden, and (5) improved access for vulnerable patient populations. A flexible approach for framework implementation was proposed. CONCLUSIONS: Proposed PEx domains could be implemented at multiple levels of healthcare decision making to formalize consideration of PEx in the assessment of value, either through the extension of existing VFs or to create new PEx-focused VFs and more holistic decision making tools. DISCLOSURES: This study was funded and sponsored by UCB Pharma. The funding agreement ensured the authors' independence in designing the study, interpreting the data, writing, and publishing the report. Charokopou, Mountain, and Szegvari are employed by UCB Pharma. Inotai, Jakab, and Kalo are employed by Syreon Research Institute, which received funding from UCB Pharma for this research. Brixner has received fees from AbbVie, Elevar, Millcreek Outcomes Group, Novartis, Sanofi, UCB Pharma, and Xcenda. Campbell has received grants and contracts from the PhRMA Foundation and the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review. During a sabbatical leave, Campbell collaborated with Syreon Research Institute on research projects that included funding from UCB Pharma. Hawkins has received consultancy fees from UCB Pharma. Kristensen has received speakers bureau fees from Pfizer, AbbVie, Amgen, UCB Pharma, Celgene, Bristol-Myers Squibb, MSD, Novartis, Eli Lilly, and Janssen Pharmaceuticals and consultancy fees from UCB Pharma.

Risk assessments and structured care interventions for prevention of foot ulceration in diabetes: development and validation of a prognostic model.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes-related foot ulcers give rise to considerable morbidity, generate a high monetary cost for health and social care services and precede the majority of diabetes-related lower extremity amputations. There are many clinical prediction rules in existence to assess risk of foot ulceration but few have been subject to validation. OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to produce an evidence-based clinical pathway for risk assessment and management of the foot in people with diabetes mellitus to estimate cost-effective monitoring intervals and to perform cost-effectiveness analyses and a value-of-information analysis. DESIGN: We developed and validated a prognostic model using predictive modelling, calibration and discrimination techniques. An overview of systematic reviews already completed was followed by a review of randomised controlled trials of interventions to prevent foot ulceration in diabetes mellitus. A review of the health economic literature was followed by the construction of an economic model, an analysis of the transitional probability of moving from one foot risk state to another, an assessment of cost-effectiveness and a value-of-information analysis. INTERVENTIONS: The effects of simple and complex interventions and different monitoring intervals for the clinical prediction rules were evaluated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The main outcome was the incidence of foot ulceration. We compared the new clinical prediction rules in conjunction with the most effective preventative interventions at different monitoring intervals with a 'treat-all' strategy. DATA SOURCES: Data from an electronic health record for 26,154 people with diabetes mellitus in one Scottish health board were used to estimate the monitoring interval. The Prediction Of Diabetic foot UlcerationS (PODUS) data set was used to develop and validate the clinical prediction rule. REVIEW METHODS: We searched for eligible randomised controlled trials of interventions using search strategies created for Ovid® (Wolters Kluwer, Alphen aan den Rijn, the Netherlands), MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomised controlled trials in progress were identified via the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Registry and systematic reviews were identified via PROSPERO. Databases were searched from inception to February 2019. RESULTS: The clinical prediction rule was found to accurately assess the risk of foot ulceration. Digital infrared thermometry, complex interventions and therapeutic footwear with offloading devices were found to be effective in preventing foot ulcers. The risk of developing a foot ulcer did not change over time for most people. We found that interventions to prevent foot ulceration may be cost-effective but there is uncertainty about this. Digital infrared thermometry and therapeutic footwear with offloading devices may be cost-effective when used to treat all people with diabetes mellitus regardless of their ulcer risk. LIMITATIONS: The threats to the validity of the results in some randomised controlled trials in the review and the large number of missing data in the electronic health record mean that there is uncertainty in our estimates. CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence that interventions to prevent foot ulceration are effective but it is not clear who would benefit most from receiving the interventions. The ulceration risk does not change over an 8-year period for most people with diabetes mellitus. A change in the monitoring interval from annually to every 2 years for those at low risk would be acceptable. FUTURE WORK RECOMMENDATIONS: Improving the completeness of electronic health records and sharing data would help improve our knowledge about the most clinically effective and cost-effective approaches to prevent foot ulceration in diabetes mellitus. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016052324. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 62. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

People with diabetes sometimes have problems with their feet that can become serious and make getting around harder and life less enjoyable. We have developed a test based on a simple score to find out a person's risk of getting a foot ulcer. We also wanted to know how often the test needs to be done. People who have been tested and learn that they might go on to have foot problems rightly expect to be given treatment that stops the problem happening in the first place. In this project, we read many written reports about the best treatments to prevent foot ulcers. We found that some things can prevent foot ulcers, such as wearing special shoes and insoles, taking the temperature of the skin of the foot and resting when the temperature rises, and receiving specialist care from diabetes foot care teams. However, we also looked at the costs of the test and treatments and found that some treatments are better value for money than others. By using people's health data from NHS computers, we discovered that very few people with diabetes develop a worse risk score for foot ulcers as time goes on, and it seems that being tested every year is not necessary for everyone. New clinical trials might help to improve foot health for people with diabetes, but if all of the researchers who have collected data from people in clinical trials shared their data it would be possible to find out more about who will gain most from these treatments without spending a lot on new research. It is clear that better input of patients' health data into NHS computers will benefit diabetes research in the future.

A different animal? Identifying the features of health technology assessment for developers of medical technologies.

Health technology assessment (HTA) conducted to inform developers of health technologies (development-focused HTA, DF-HTA) has a number of distinct features when compared to HTA conducted to inform usage decisions (use-focused HTA). To conduct effective DF-HTA, it is important that analysts are aware of its distinct features as analyses are often not published. We set out a framework of ten features, drawn from the literature and our own experience: a target audience of developers and investors; an underlying user objective to maximize return on investment; a broad range of decisions to inform; wide decision space; reduced evidence available; earlier timing of analysis; fluid business model; constrained resources for analysis; a positive stance of analysis; and a "consumer"-specific burden of proof. This paper presents a framework of ten features of DF-HTA intended to initiate debate as well as provide an introduction for analysts unfamiliar with the field.

Estimating the Value of New Antimicrobials in the Context of Antimicrobial Resistance: Development and Application of a Dynamic Disease Transmission Model.

OBJECTIVES: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents a significant threat to patient and population health. The study aim was to develop and validate a model of AMR that defines and quantifies the value of new antibiotics. METHODS: A dynamic disease transmission and cost-effectiveness model of AMR consisting of three components (disease transmission, treatment pathway and optimisation) was developed to evaluate the health economic value of new antibiotics. The model is based on the relationship between AMR, antimicrobial availability and consumption. Model analysis explored the impact of different antibiotic treatment strategies on the development of AMR, patient and population estimates of health benefit, across three common treatment indications and pathogens in the UK. RESULTS: Population-level resistance to existing antimicrobials was estimated to increase from 10.3 to 16.1% over 10 years based on current antibiotic availability and consumption. In comparison, the diversified use of a new antibiotic was associated with significant reduction in AMR (12.8% vs. 16.1%) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains at a patient (7.7-10.3, dependent on antimicrobial efficacy) and population level (3657-8197, dependent on antimicrobial efficacy and the prevalence of AMR). Validation across several real-world data sources showed that the model output does not tend to systematically under- or over-estimate observed data. CONCLUSIONS: The development of new antibiotics and the appropriate use of existing antibiotics are key to addressing the threat of AMR. This study presents a validated model that quantifies the value of new antibiotics through clinical and economic outcomes of relevance, and accounts for disease transmission of infection and development of AMR. In this context, the model may be a useful tool that could contribute to the decision-making process alongside other potential models and expert advice.

Cryptococcal Meningitis Screening and Community-based Early Adherence Support in People With Advanced Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Tanzania and Zambia: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: A randomized trial demonstrated that among people living with late-stage human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection initiating antiretroviral therapy, screening serum for cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) combined with adherence support reduced all-cause mortality by 28%, compared with standard clinic-based care. Here, we present the cost-effectiveness. METHODS: HIV-infected adults with CD4 count <200 cells/µL were randomized to either CrAg screening plus 4 weekly home visits to provide adherence support or to standard clinic-based care in Dar es Salaam and Lusaka. The primary economic outcome was health service care cost per life-year saved as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), based on 2017 US dollars. We used nonparametric bootstrapping to assess uncertainties and univariate deterministic sensitivity analysis to examine the impact of individual parameters on the ICER. RESULTS: Among the intervention and standard arms, 1001 and 998 participants, respectively, were enrolled. The annual mean cost per participant in the intervention arm was US$339 (95% confidence interval [CI], $331-$347), resulting in an incremental cost of the intervention of US$77 (95% CI, $66-$88). The incremental cost was similar when analysis was restricted to persons with CD4 count <100 cells/µL. The ICER for the intervention vs standard care, per life-year saved, was US$70 (95% CI, $43-$211) for all participants with CD4 count up to 200 cells/µL and US$91 (95% CI, $49-$443) among those with CD4 counts <100 cells /µL. Cost-effectveness was most sensitive to mortality estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for cryptococcal antigen combined with a short period of adherence support, is cost-effective in resource-limited settings.

Evaluation of the Economic Burden of Psoriatic Arthritis and the Relationship Between Functional Status and Healthcare Costs.

OBJECTIVE: This analysis aimed to evaluate the economic burden of patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) on the UK healthcare system and estimate the relationship between functional status and direct healthcare costs. METHODS: Functional status [measured using the Health Assessment Questionnaire-Disability Index (HAQ-DI)], demographics, disease history, and healthcare resource use data were extracted from a cohort of patients at the Royal National Hospital for Rheumatic Diseases, Bath, UK. Each resource use item per patient was then allocated a unit cost. Linear regression models were used to predict costs as a function of HAQ-DI. Medication costs were not included in the primary analysis, which was carried out from the UK National Health Service perspective. RESULTS: Data were available for 101 patients. Mean HAQ-DI score was 0.84 (SD 0.75) and mean age at HAQ-DI measurement was 57.8 (SD 10.7). Total annual healthcare costs per patient, excluding medication costs, ranged between £174 and £8854, with a mean of £1586 (SD £1639). A 1-point increase in HAQ-DI score was associated with an increase in total costs of £547.49 (standard error £224), with secondary care consultations appearing to be the primary factor. Subgroup analyses suggested higher cost increases in patients with HAQ-DI scores of 2-3 and with a disease duration > 10 years. CONCLUSION: Patients with PsA place a significant economic burden on the healthcare system. Functional status is highly correlated with costs and appears to be driven mainly by the cost of secondary care consultations. Results were similar to previous studies in rheumatoid arthritis populations.

Context-Specific Economic Evaluation for Molecular Pathology Tests: An Application in Colorectal Cancer in the West of Scotland.

OBJECTIVES: The cost-effectiveness of molecular pathology testing is highly context dependent. The field is fast-moving, and national health technology assessment may not be relevant or timely for local decision makers. This study illustrates a method of context-specific economic evaluation that can be carried out in a limited timescale without extensive resources. METHODS: We established a multi-disciplinary group including an oncologist, pathologists and a health economist. We set out diagnostic and treatment pathways and costs using registry data, health technology assessments, guidelines, audit data, and estimates from the group. Sensitivity analysis varied input parameters across plausible ranges. The evaluation setting was the West of Scotland and UK NHS perspective was adopted. The evaluation was assessed against the AdHopHTA checklist for hospital-based health technology assessment. RESULTS: A context-specific economic evaluation could be carried out on a timely basis using limited resources. The evaluation met all relevant criteria in the AdHopHTA checklist. Health outcomes were expected to be at least equal to the current strategy. Annual cost savings of £637,000 were estimated resulting primarily from a reduction in the proportion of patients receiving intravenous infusional chemotherapy regimens. The result was not sensitive to any parameter. The data driving the main cost saving came from a small clinical audit. We recommended this finding was confirmed in a larger population. CONCLUSIONS: The method could be used to evaluate testing changes elsewhere. The results of the case study may be transferable to other jurisdictions where the organization of cancer services is fragmented.

Transparency in Decision Modelling: What, Why, Who and How?

Transparency in decision modelling is an evolving concept. Recently, discussion has moved from reporting standards to open-source implementation of decision analytic models. However, in the debate about the supposed advantages and disadvantages of greater transparency, there is a lack of definition. The purpose of this article is not to present a case for or against transparency, but rather to provide a more nuanced understanding of what transparency means in the context of decision modelling and how it could be addressed. To this end, we review and summarise the discourse to date, drawing on our collective experience. We outline a taxonomy of the different manifestations of transparency, including reporting standards, reference models, collaboration, model registration, peer review and open-source modelling. Further, we map out the role and incentives for the various stakeholders, including industry, research organisations, publishers and decision makers. We outline the anticipated advantages and disadvantages of greater transparency with respect to each manifestation, as well as the perceived barriers and facilitators to greater transparency. These are considered with respect to the different stakeholders and with reference to issues including intellectual property, legality, standards, quality assurance, code integrity, health technology assessment processes, incentives, funding, software, access and deployment options, data protection and stakeholder engagement. For each manifestation of transparency, we discuss the 'what', 'why', 'who' and 'how'. Specifically, their meaning, why the community might (or might not) wish to embrace them, whose engagement as stakeholders is required and how relevant objectives might be realised. We identify current initiatives aimed to improve transparency to exemplify efforts in current practice and for the future.

Economic evaluation of the introduction of the Prostate Health Index as a rule-out test to avoid unnecessary biopsies in men with prostate specific antigen levels of 4-10 in Hong Kong.

A recent study showed that the Prostate Health Index may avoid unnecessary biopsies in men with prostate specific antigen 4-10ng/ml and normal digital rectal examination in the diagnosis of prostate cancer in Hong Kong. This study aimed to conduct an economic evaluation of the impact of adopting this commercially-available test in the Hong Kong public health service to determine whether further research is justified. A cost-consequence analysis was undertaken comparing the current diagnostic pathway with a proposed diagnostic pathway using the Prostate Health Index. Data for the model was taken from a prospective cohort study recruited at a single-institution and micro-costing studies. Using a cut off PHI score of 35 to avoid biopsy would cost HK$3,000 and save HK$7,988 per patient in biopsy costs and HK$511 from a reduction in biopsy-related adverse events. The net cost impact of the change was estimated to be HK$5,500 under base case assumptions. At the base case sensitivity and specificity for all grades of cancer (61.3% and 77.5% respectively) all grade cancer could be missed in 4.22% of the population and high grade cancer in 0.53%. The introduction of the prostate health index into the diagnostic pathway for prostate cancer in Hong Kong has the potential to reduce biopsies, biopsy costs and biopsy-related adverse events. Policy makers should consider the clinical and economic impact of this proposal.

Economic Evaluation of Venovenous Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation is increasingly being used to support patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome, but its cost-effectiveness is unknown. We assessed the cost-utility of venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for severe acute respiratory distress syndrome in adults compared with standard lung protective ventilation from the perspective of the healthcare system. DESIGN: We conducted a cost-utility analysis with a cohort state transition decision model using a lifetime time horizon, 1.5% discount rate, and outcomes reported as cost per quality-adjusted life year. Literature reviews were conducted to inform the model variables. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess uncertainty in the model. SETTING: Canadian publicly funded healthcare system. PATIENTS: Hypothetical cohort of adults with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome. INTERVENTIONS: Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation or standard lung protective ventilation. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In our model, the use of venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation compared with lung protective ventilation resulted in a gain of 5.2 life years and 4.05 quality-adjusted life years, at an additional lifetime cost of $145,697 Canadian dollars. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $36,001/quality-adjusted life year. Sensitivity analyses show that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is sensitive to the efficacy of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation therapy and costs. CONCLUSIONS: Based on current data, venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation is cost-effective for patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome. Additional evidence on the efficacy of venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for acute respiratory distress syndrome and in different subgroups of patients will allow for greater certainty in its cost-effectiveness.