A real-world data validation of the value of early-stage SIR modelling to public health.

Performance of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model in the early stage of a novel epidemic may be hindered by data availability. Additionally, the traditional SIR model may oversimplify the disease progress, and knowledge about the virus and transmission is limited early in the epidemic, resulting in a greater uncertainty of such modelling. We aimed to investigate the impact of model inputs on the early-stage SIR projection using COVID-19 as an illustration to evaluate the application of early infection models. We constructed a modified SIR model using discrete-time Markov chain to simulate daily epidemic dynamics and estimate the number of beds needed in Wuhan in the early stage of COVID-19 epidemic. We compared eight scenarios of SIR projection to the real-world data (RWD) and used root mean square error (RMSE) to assess model performance. According to the National Health Commission, the number of beds occupied in isolation wards and ICUs due to COVID-19 in Wuhan peaked at 37,746. In our model, as the epidemic developed, we observed an increasing daily new case rate, and decreasing daily removal rate and ICU rate. This change in rates contributed to the growth in the needs of bed in both isolation wards and ICUs. Assuming a 50% diagnosis rate and 70% public health efficacy, the model based on parameters estimated using data from the day reaching 3200 to the day reaching 6400 cases returned a lowest RMSE. This model predicted 22,613 beds needed in isolation ward and ICU as on the day of RWD peak. Very early SIR model predictions based on early cumulative case data initially underestimated the number of beds needed, but the RMSEs tended to decline as more updated data were used. Very-early-stage SIR model, although simple but convenient and relatively accurate, is a useful tool to provide decisive information for the public health system and predict the trend of an epidemic of novel infectious disease in the very early stage, thus, avoiding the issue of delay-decision and extra deaths.

All HER2-negative breast cancer patients need gBRCA testing: cost-effectiveness and clinical benefits.

BACKGROUND: The OlympiA trial demonstrated the benefits of adjuvant usage of olaparib for high-risk patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative breast cancer (BC) and germline BRCA (gBRCA) mutation. This provoked thoughts on the clinical criteria of gBRCA testing. This study aims to estimate the costs and benefits of gBRCA testing and adjuvant olaparib therapy for patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and hormone-receptor (HR)-positive and HER2-negative BC in China and the United States of America (USA). METHODS: We used a Markov chain decision tree analytic model to compare three gBRCA screening policies in China and the USA: (1) no gBRCA testing; (2) selected gBRCA testing and (3) universal gBRCA testing for nonmetastatic TNBC and HR-positive HER2-negative BC patients. We modelled the benefit of systemic therapy and risk-reducing surgeries among patients identified with pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants (PVs) in BRCA1 and BRCA2. RESULTS: Changing from the selected gBRCA testing to the universal gBRCA testing in TNBC patients is cost-effective, with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) being 10991.1 and 56518.2 USD/QALY in China and the USA, respectively. Expanding universal gBRCA testing to HR-positive HER2-negative BC and TNBC patients has ICERs of 2023.3 and 16611.1 USD/QALY in China and the USA, respectively. DISCUSSION: By performing gBRCA testing on all HER2-negative BC patients, adjuvant olaparib can be offered to high-risk patients with a PV in BRCA1 or BRCA2. These patients are also candidates for risk-reducing surgeries, an important aspect of their survivorship care, and these interventions can improve survival outcomes. With the willingness-to-pay thresholds being 31,500.0 and 100,000.0 USD per QALY gained in China and the USA, respectively, universal gBRCA testing is likely cost-effective for all HER2-negative BC patients. This simplified criterion of gBRCA testing for BC is recommended for adoption by current guidelines in China and the USA.

Economic burden of IADPSG gestational diabetes diagnostic criteria in China: propensity score matching analysis from a 7-year retrospective cohort.

INTRODUCTION: The International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Group (IADPSG) criteria for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) increased the morbidity significantly, but the cost and effectiveness of its application are still unclear. This study aimed to analyze the impact of the IADPSG criteria for diagnosing GDM in China on the perinatal outcomes, and medical expenditure of GDM women versus those with normal glucose tolerance (NGT). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving 7794 women admitted at the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University (Guangzhou, China), from November 1, 2010 to October 31, 2017. The perinatal outcomes and medical expenditure were retrieved from the electronic medical records in the hospital. Propensity score matching (PSM, in a 1:1 ratio) algorithm was used to minimize confounding effects on the difference in the two cohorts. RESULTS: PSM minimized the difference of baseline characteristics between women with and without GDM. Of 7794 pregnant women, half (n=3897) were all of the pregnant women with GDM admitted to the hospital during the period, the other half women had NGT and were selected randomly to match with their counterparts. Adopting the IADPSG criteria was associated with reduced risk of emergency cesarean section, polyhydramnios, turbid amniotic fluid and perineal injury (p<0.01 for all) and having any one of the adverse fetal outcomes (p<0.01), including fetal distress, umbilical cord around the neck, neonatal encephalopathy, admission to neonatal intensive care unit, birth trauma, neonatal hypoglycemia and fetal death. After PSM, the median total medical expenditure by the GDM women was ¥912.9 (US$140.7 in 2015) more than that of the the NGT women (p=0.09). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the increasing medical expenditure, screening at 24-28 gestational weeks under the IADPSG guidelines with the 2-hour, 75 g oral glucose tolerance test can improve short-term maternal and neonatal outcomes.

The economic burden of medical treatment of children with asthma in China.

BACKGROUND: At present, there are few studies on the economic burden and medical treatment of children with asthma in China. Thus this study aimed to investigate the economic burden of medical treatment of children with asthma in China. METHOD: The 2015 China Medical Insurance Research Association (CHIRA) database was searched for patients with asthma from 0 to 14 years old. A cross-sectional study with cost analysis was conducted. RESULTS: The annual per capita direct medical cost was RMB 525 (US$75) related to asthma. Totaling 58% of the medical expenditure for asthma was covered by insurance in China, the majority of which were direct medical costs. Those that have the highest rates of using antibiotics were central China (100.0%), children aged 3 years and under (63.6%), as well as fourth-tier and fifth-tier cities (77.1%). Outpatient clinics (98.58% vs 1.42%, P < 0.01), tertiary hospitals (62.08% vs 37.92%, P < 0.01), and general hospitals (72.27% vs 27.73%, P < 0.01) were more often visited than the inpatient clinics, secondary and primary as well as the specialized clinics, respectively. CONCLUSION: The economic burden of childhood asthma in China is relatively low, and the national medical insurance reduces their economic burden to a large extent. Abuse of antibiotics in treating asthma was found in China. There remain opportunities to strengthen the hierarchical medical system, reducing hospitalization and emergency visits, and ultimately reducing the economic burden of children with asthma.

Maximum diversity weighting for biomarkers with application in HIV-1 vaccine studies.

While studying the association between risk of HIV-1 infection and vaccine-elicited immune responses in preventative HIV-1 vaccine recipients, we encountered a need to combine a collection of biomarkers in an unsupervised fashion with the goal of preserving signal diversity within that collection. Inspired by methods for weighting protein sequences from the biological sequence analysis literature, we propose novel methods for weighting biomarkers, which we call maximum diversity weights. These weights are defined as the weights that maximize measures of signal diversity within a collection of biomarkers. While the optimization problems do not admit analytical solutions, they are convex and hence can be solved efficiently using iterative search algorithms. Through Monte Carlo studies and a real data example from HIV-1 vaccine research, we show that using maximum diversity weights in association studies can lead to an increase in power over other commonly used weights such as uniform weights or principal component-based weights.

Influence of different diagnostic criteria on gestational diabetes mellitus incidence and medical expenditures in China.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: To summarize the development of the criteria for diagnosing gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in China, and investigate how different GDM diagnostic criteria influence the national prevalence of GDM, the national health system and the economic burden of GDM in China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospectively using data from women undergoing a 2-h, 75-g oral glucose tolerance test at 24-28 gestational weeks in the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University (Guangzhou, Guangdong, China) from January 2011 to December 2017, the prevalence rate of GDM and its impacts on the national health system were evaluated using different criteria (the 7th edition textbook criteria, National Diabetes Data Group 1979, World Health Organization 1985, European Association for the Study of Diabetes 1996, Japan 2002, American Diabetes Association [ADA] 2011 [International Association of the Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups], and National Institute for Heath and Care Excellence 2015). RESULTS: The incidence rates of GDM based on the ADA 2011 and National Institute for Heath and Care Excellence 2015 were, respectively, 22.94% (P < 0.01) and 21.72% (P < 0.01), over threefold higher than implementing the 7th edition textbook criteria (P < 0.001). On the contrary, the incidence rates of GDM diagnosed with the National Diabetes Data Group 1979 and World Health Organization 1985 guidelines were significantly less than the 7th edition textbook criteria (P < 0.001). From 2001 to 2016, the estimated national cost of treating GDM rose from ¥3.9 billion to ¥27.4 billion after implementing the ADA 2011 guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: With the implementation of ADA 2011 (International Association of the Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups) guidelines, there are fewer adverse perinatal outcomes and cases of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the long term, but the medical costs increased significantly, and the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic criteria in China is still yet to be confirmed.