Development and validation of the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model (MICROSIM).

Strategies to prevent or delay Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (AD/ADRD) are urgently needed, and blood pressure (BP) management is a promising strategy. Yet the effects of different BP control strategies across the life course on AD/ADRD are unknown. Randomized trials may be infeasible due to prolonged follow-up and large sample sizes. Simulation analysis is a practical approach to estimating these effects using the best available existing data. However, existing simulation frameworks cannot estimate the effects of BP control on both dementia and cardiovascular disease. This manuscript describes the design principles, implementation details, and population-level validation of a novel population-health microsimulation framework, the MIchigan ChROnic Disease SIMulation (MICROSIM), for The Effect of Lower Blood Pressure over the Life Course on Late-life Cognition in Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites (BP-COG) study of the effect of BP levels over the life course on dementia and cardiovascular disease. MICROSIM is an agent-based Monte Carlo simulation designed using computer programming best practices. MICROSIM estimates annual vascular risk factor levels and transition probabilities in all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality in a nationally representative sample of US adults 18+ using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). MICROSIM models changes in risk factors over time, cognition and dementia using changes from a pooled dataset of individual participant data from 6 US prospective cardiovascular cohort studies. Cardiovascular risks were estimated using a widely used risk model and BP treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses of randomized trials. MICROSIM is an extensible, open-source framework designed to estimate the population-level impact of different BP management strategies and reproduces US population-level estimates of BP and other vascular risk factors levels, their change over time, and incident all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality.

Assessment of Risk Factors and Clinical Importance of Enlarged Perivascular Spaces by Whole-Brain Investigation in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Importance: Enlarged perivascular spaces (ePVSs) have been associated with cerebral small-vessel disease (cSVD). Although their etiology may differ based on brain location, study of ePVSs has been limited to specific brain regions; therefore, their risk factors and significance remain uncertain. Objective: Toperform a whole-brain investigation of ePVSs in a large community-based cohort. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study analyzed data from the Atrial Fibrillation substudy of the population-based Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Demographic, vascular risk, and cardiovascular disease data were collected from September 2016 to May 2018. Brain magnetic resonance imaging was performed from March 2018 to July 2019. The reported analysis was conducted between August and October 2022. A total of 1026 participants with available brain magnetic resonance imaging data and complete information on demographic characteristics and vascular risk factors were included. Main Outcomes and Measures: Enlarged perivascular spaces were quantified using a fully automated deep learning algorithm. Quantified ePVS volumes were grouped into 6 anatomic locations: basal ganglia, thalamus, brainstem, frontoparietal, insular, and temporal regions, and were normalized for the respective regional volumes. The association of normalized regional ePVS volumes with demographic characteristics, vascular risk factors, neuroimaging indices, and prevalent cardiovascular disease was explored using generalized linear models. Results: In the 1026 participants, mean (SD) age was 72 (8) years; 541 (53%) of the participants were women. Basal ganglia ePVS volume was positively associated with age (ß = 3.59 × 10-3; 95% CI, 2.80 × 10-3 to 4.39 × 10-3), systolic blood pressure (ß = 8.35 × 10-4; 95% CI, 5.19 × 10-4 to 1.15 × 10-3), use of antihypertensives (ß = 3.29 × 10-2; 95% CI, 1.92 × 10-2 to 4.67 × 10-2), and negatively associated with Black race (ß = -3.34 × 10-2; 95% CI, -5.08 × 10-2 to -1.59 × 10-2). Thalamic ePVS volume was positively associated with age (ß = 5.57 × 10-4; 95% CI, 2.19 × 10-4 to 8.95 × 10-4) and use of antihypertensives (ß = 1.19 × 10-2; 95% CI, 6.02 × 10-3 to 1.77 × 10-2). Insular region ePVS volume was positively associated with age (ß = 1.18 × 10-3; 95% CI, 7.98 × 10-4 to 1.55 × 10-3). Brainstem ePVS volume was smaller in Black than in White participants (ß = -5.34 × 10-3; 95% CI, -8.26 × 10-3 to -2.41 × 10-3). Frontoparietal ePVS volume was positively associated with systolic blood pressure (ß = 1.14 × 10-4; 95% CI, 3.38 × 10-5 to 1.95 × 10-4) and negatively associated with age (ß = -3.38 × 10-4; 95% CI, -5.40 × 10-4 to -1.36 × 10-4). Temporal region ePVS volume was negatively associated with age (ß = -1.61 × 10-2; 95% CI, -2.14 × 10-2 to -1.09 × 10-2), as well as Chinese American (ß = -2.35 × 10-1; 95% CI, -3.83 × 10-1 to -8.74 × 10-2) and Hispanic ethnicities (ß = -1.73 × 10-1; 95% CI, -2.96 × 10-1 to -4.99 × 10-2). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of ePVSs in the whole brain, increased ePVS burden in the basal ganglia and thalamus was a surrogate marker for underlying cSVD, highlighting the clinical importance of ePVSs in these locations.

Secondhand tobacco smoke exposure, urine cotinine, and risk of incident atrial fibrillation: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Secondhand tobacco smoke (SHS) exposure may reduce heart rate variability and lead to atrial fibrillation (AF); however prior study findings have not been confirmed using objective measures for both SHS and AF events. METHODS: We prospectively examined the association between SHS exposure and incident AF in 5731 participants, ages of 45-84 years and free of known AF and other cardiovascular diseases (CVD) at baseline (2000-2002), who were followed through 2015 in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). SHS weekly exposure time was identified by self-report. Urine cotinine was collected in a cohort subset of 3237 current non-smoking cohort participants. AF events were identified using Medicare claims, hospital records, and 12­lead electrocardiographic findings. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used with simultaneous adjustment for demographic factors, educational level, health insurance status, active smoking status, tobacco pack-years, traditional CVD risk factors, depressive symptoms and medications. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 14.0 years, 856 and 452 AF events were identified in the overall and the cohort subset, respectively. No association of SHS exposure time or urine cotinine with incident AF was observed. However, a higher AF risk with greater urine cotinine (8.53-442.0 ng/mL) compared with lower urine cotinine (≤7.07 ng/mL) was observed in never smokers [hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals: 1.60 (1.16, 2.19)], but not in former smokers [HR: 0.88 (0.63, 1.23)] (p-value for multiplicative interaction: 0.009 and for additive interaction: 0.017, respectively). CONCLUSION: Objectively measured greater SHS exposure expressed by urine cotinine might be associated with 1.6-fold higher risk of incident AF in never smokers.

Life's Simple 7 Cardiovascular Health Score in Relation to Arrhythmias on Extended Ambulatory Electrocardiographic Monitoring (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

The Life's Simple 7 (LS7) metric consists of 7 modifiable health behaviors and measures that are known health factors for cardiovascular wellness. Relatively little is known about the association of LS7 score with cardiac arrhythmias. In the setting of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, we studied the LS7 score (range 0 to 14), assessed at the 2010 to 2102 study visit, in relation to cardiac arrhythmias assessed by Zio Patch ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring in 2016 to 2018. In participants free of clinically recognized cardiovascular disease and atrial fibrillation, we used logistic and linear regression to examine the association of total LS7 score with atrial fibrillation, supraventricular ectopy, and ventricular ectopy. In 1,329 participants in the analysis, the mean (SD) age was 67 (8) years and 48% were men. A more favorable total LS7 score was associated with fewer premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) per hour (ratio of geometric means for optimal [11 to 14] versus inadequate [0 to 7] score 0.52 [95% confidence interval 0.34 to 0.81]). After adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, the association was attenuated (0.66 [0.43 to 1.01]). =Among the LS7 components, a more favorable body mass index was associated with less ventricular ectopy. We did not detect associations of total LS7 score with atrial arrhythmias. In conclusion, in this longitudinal study of older participants free of clinically recognized cardiovascular disease, there was little evidence of association of the LS7 cardiovascular health score with subclinical cardiac arrhythmias. However, there was a suggestion that a more favorable LS7 score was associated with fewer PVCs and specifically, that a more favorable body mass index was associated with fewer PVCs.

Assessment of the Relationship Between Genetic Determinants of Thyroid Function and Atrial Fibrillation: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

Importance: Increased free thyroxine (FT4) and decreased thyrotropin are associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in observational studies, but direct involvement is unclear. Objective: To evaluate the potential direct involvement of thyroid traits on AF. Design, Setting, and Participants: Study-level mendelian randomization (MR) included 11 studies, and summary-level MR included 55 114 AF cases and 482 295 referents, all of European ancestry. Exposures: Genomewide significant variants were used as instruments for standardized FT4 and thyrotropin levels within the reference range, standardized triiodothyronine (FT3):FT4 ratio, hypothyroidism, standardized thyroid peroxidase antibody levels, and hyperthyroidism. Mendelian randomization used genetic risk scores in study-level analysis or individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms in 2-sample MR for the summary-level data. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalent and incident AF. Results: The study-level analysis included 7679 individuals with AF and 49 233 referents (mean age [standard error], 62 [3] years; 15 859 men [29.7%]). In study-level random-effects meta-analysis, the pooled hazard ratio of FT4 levels (nanograms per deciliter) for incident AF was 1.55 (95% CI, 1.09-2.20; P = .02; I2 = 76%) and the pooled odds ratio (OR) for prevalent AF was 2.80 (95% CI, 1.41-5.54; P = .003; I2 = 64%) in multivariable-adjusted analyses. The FT4 genetic risk score was associated with an increase in FT4 by 0.082 SD (standard error, 0.007; P < .001) but not with incident AF (risk ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.62-1.14; P = .27) or prevalent AF (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.64-2.73; P = .46). Similarly, in summary-level inverse-variance weighted random-effects MR, gene-based FT4 within the reference range was not associated with AF (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.89-1.14; P = .88). However, gene-based increased FT3:FT4 ratio, increased thyrotropin within the reference range, and hypothyroidism were associated with AF with inverse-variance weighted random-effects OR of 1.33 (95% CI, 1.08-1.63; P = .006), 0.88 (95% CI, 0.84-0.92; P < .001), and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90-0.99; P = .009), respectively, and robust to tests of horizontal pleiotropy. However, the subset of hypothyroidism single-nucleotide polymorphisms involved in autoimmunity and thyroid peroxidase antibodies levels were not associated with AF. Gene-based hyperthyroidism was associated with AF with MR-Egger OR of 1.31 (95% CI, 1.05-1.63; P = .02) with evidence of horizontal pleiotropy (P = .045). Conclusions and Relevance: Genetically increased FT3:FT4 ratio and hyperthyroidism, but not FT4 within the reference range, were associated with increased AF, and increased thyrotropin within the reference range and hypothyroidism were associated with decreased AF, supporting a pathway involving the pituitary-thyroid-cardiac axis.

The Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases Among US States, 1990-2016.

Importance: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, but regional variation within the United States is large. Comparable and consistent state-level measures of total CVD burden and risk factors have not been produced previously. Objective: To quantify and describe levels and trends of lost health due to CVD within the United States from 1990 to 2016 as well as risk factors driving these changes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using the Global Burden of Disease methodology, cardiovascular disease mortality, nonfatal health outcomes, and associated risk factors were analyzed by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2016 for all residents in the United States using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling. Burden of disease was estimated for 10 groupings of CVD, and comparative risk analysis was performed. Data were analyzed from August 2016 to July 2017. Exposures: Residing in the United States. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cardiovascular disease disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results: Between 1990 and 2016, age-standardized CVD DALYs for all states decreased. Several states had large rises in their relative rank ordering for total CVD DALYs among states, including Arkansas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Indiana, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa. The rate of decline varied widely across states, and CVD burden increased for a small number of states in the most recent years. Cardiovascular disease DALYs remained twice as large among men compared with women. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD DALYs in all states, but the second most common varied by state. Trends were driven by 12 groups of risk factors, with the largest attributable CVD burden due to dietary risk exposures followed by high systolic blood pressure, high body mass index, high total cholesterol level, high fasting plasma glucose level, tobacco smoking, and low levels of physical activity. Increases in risk-deleted CVD DALY rates between 2006 and 2016 in 16 states suggest additional unmeasured risks beyond these traditional factors. Conclusions and Relevance: Large disparities in total burden of CVD persist between US states despite marked improvements in CVD burden. Differences in CVD burden are largely attributable to modifiable risk exposures.

Hospital and clinical care costs associated with atrial fibrillation for Medicare beneficiaries in the Cardiovascular Health Study and the Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation is increasingly prevalent as the US population ages and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Care for patients with atrial fibrillation can be costly, US health care costs are comparatively high, and there are few cost estimates available that incorporate detailed measurement of comorbidities and their effects on costs. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the Cardiovascular Health Study and the Framingham Heart Study, participants aged 65 years or older with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation were matched on age and follow-up time to referents free of atrial fibrillation. The total clinical and hospital medical costs paid by Medicare Parts A and B (drug costs from Medicare Part D costs were not included) in the year prior to diagnosis (or matching) were compared with costs in the following year. Estimates were adjusted for other medical conditions and adjusted to 2009 dollars. In the Cardiovascular Health Study, 513 participants were diagnosed with new-onset atrial fibrillation and survived 30 days post-atrial fibrillation diagnosis, and 513 referents (as a control cohort) were identified, with a mean age of 77 years. In the Framingham Heart Study, we identified 336 participants diagnosed with atrial fibrillation, who survived 30 days post-atrial fibrillation diagnosis and matched these participants to 336 referents. We compared these new-onset atrial fibrillation participants with referents, using a difference in difference design to account for both time trends and differences between the two groups. The adjusted incremental cost for participants with atrial fibrillation, compared with referents, was US$18,060 (95% confidence interval: US$14,965-US$21,155) in the Cardiovascular Health Study and US$20,012 (95% confidence interval: US$15,057-US$24,966) in the Framingham Heart Study. The pooled estimate was US$18,601 (95% confidence interval: US$15,981-US$21,234). CONCLUSION: Atrial fibrillation was associated with increased costs in the year after diagnosis in two community-based cohorts, even after careful accounting for age, time period, and systematically measured comorbidities.

Administrative billing codes accurately identified occurrence of electrical cardioversion and ablation/maze procedures in a prospective cohort study of atrial fibrillation patients.

BACKGROUND: Administrative billing codes for electrical cardioversion and ablation/maze procedures may be useful for atrial fibrillation (AF) research if the codes are accurate relative to medical record documentation. HYPOTHESIS: Administrative billing codes accurately identify occurrence of electrical cardioversion and ablation/maze procedures in AF patients. METHODS: We studied adults ages 30 to 84 who experienced new-onset AF between October 2001 and December 2004 in Group Health Cooperative (acquired by Kaiser Permanente in 2017), an integrated healthcare system in Washington state and northern Idaho. Using medical record review as the gold standard, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for 3 administrative billing codes for electrical cardioversion and 3 codes for AF ablation/maze procedures. RESULTS: Of 1953 study participants, during a mean (SD) of 1.5 (0.7) years of follow-up after AF onset, 470 (24%) experienced electrical cardioversion and 44 (2%) experienced ablation/maze procedures, according to medical record review. For electrical cardioversion, individual codes had 7.7% to 76.4% sensitivity, >99% specificity, 83.7% to 96.5% PPV, and 77.3% to 93.0% NPV. Considering any of 3 codes (code 1 or code 2 or code 3) improved sensitivity to 84.9%. For ablation/maze, individual codes had 18.2% to 47.7% sensitivity, >99% specificity, 66.7% to 95.5% PPV, and >98% NPV. Considering any of 3 codes improved sensitivity to 84.1%. CONCLUSIONS: Administrative billing data accurately identified electrical cardioversion and ablation/maze procedures and can be used instead of medical record review. Our findings apply to healthcare settings with available administrative billing databases.

Normal findings on noninvasive cardiac assessment and the prediction of heart failure: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND: It is unknown if normal findings on noninvasive cardiac assessment are able to identify individuals who are low risk for developing heart failure (HF). METHODS: We examined if normal findings on the routine electrocardiogram (ECG) and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were able to identify individuals who are low risk for developing HF in 4986 (mean age=62±10years; 52% women; 39% White; 13% Chinese-American; 26% Black; 22% Hispanic) participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who were free of clinically apparent HF at baseline. A normal ECG was defined as the absence of major abnormalities by Minnesota Code Classification, and a normal MRI was defined as absence of structural abnormalities and systolic dysfunction. RESULTS: There were 3988 (80%) participants with normal findings at baseline on both ECG and MRI, 894 (18%) who had either a normal ECG or normal MRI, and 104 (2%) who had abnormal findings on ECG and MRI. Over a median follow-up of 12.2years, 177 (3.6%) HF events occurred. Normal ECG (HR=0.41, 95%CI=0.29, 0.56) and MRI (HR=0.32, 95%CI=0.23, 0.45) were each associated with lower risk of HF compared with abnormal, and their combination was associated with a lower HF risk (HR=0.13, 95%CI=0.08, 0.21) than either in isolation. CONCLUSION: Normal findings on noninvasive cardiac assessment identify individuals in whom the risk of HF is low. Further studies are needed to explore the utility of this low-risk profile in HF prevention strategies.

A Synthesis of Current Surveillance Planning Methods for the Sequential Monitoring of Drug and Vaccine Adverse Effects Using Electronic Health Care Data.

INTRODUCTION: The large-scale assembly of electronic health care data combined with the use of sequential monitoring has made proactive postmarket drug- and vaccine-safety surveillance possible. Although sequential designs have been used extensively in randomized trials, less attention has been given to methods for applying them in observational electronic health care database settings. EXISTING METHODS: We review current sequential-surveillance planning methods from randomized trials, and the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) and Mini-Sentinel Pilot projects-two national observational electronic health care database safety monitoring programs. FUTURE SURVEILLANCE PLANNING: Based on this examination, we suggest three steps for future surveillance planning in health care databases: (1) prespecify the sequential design and analysis plan, using available feasibility data to reduce assumptions and minimize later changes to initial plans; (2) assess existing drug or vaccine uptake, to determine if there is adequate information to proceed with surveillance, before conducting more resource-intensive planning; and (3) statistically evaluate and clearly communicate the sequential design with all those designing and interpreting the safety-surveillance results prior to implementation. Plans should also be flexible enough to accommodate dynamic and often unpredictable changes to the database information made by the health plans for administrative purposes. CONCLUSIONS: This paper is intended to encourage dialogue about establishing a more systematic, scalable, and transparent sequential design-planning process for medical-product safety-surveillance systems utilizing observational electronic health care databases. Creating such a framework could yield improvements over existing practices, such as designs with increased power to assess serious adverse events.

Ethnic differences in sudden cardiac arrest resuscitation.

OBJECTIVE: Ethnic differences in sudden cardiac arrest resuscitation have not been fully explored and studies have yielded inconsistent results. We examined the association of ethnicity with factors affecting sudden cardiac arrest outcomes. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of 3551 white, 440 black and 297 Asian sudden cardiac arrest cases in Seattle and King County, Washington, USA. RESULTS: Compared with whites, blacks and Asians were younger, had lower socioeconomic status and were more likely to have diabetes, hypertension and end-stage renal disease (all p<0.001). Blacks and Asians were less likely to have a witnessed arrest (whites 57.6%, blacks 52.1%, Asians 46.1%, p<0.001) or receive bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (whites 50.9%, blacks 41.4%, Asians 47.1%, p=0.001), but had shorter average emergency medical services response time (mean in minutes: whites 5.18, blacks 4.75, Asians 4.85, p<0.001). Compared with whites, blacks were more likely to be found in pulseless electrical activity (blacks 20.9% vs whites 16.6%, p<0.001), and Asians were more likely to be found in asystole (Asians 41.1% vs whites 30.0%, p<0.001). One of the strongest predictors of resuscitation outcomes was initial cardiac rhythm with 25% of ventricular fibrillation, 4% of patients with pulseless electrical activity and 1% of patients with asystole surviving to hospital discharge (adjusted OR of resuscitation in pulseless electrical activity compared with ventricular fibrillation: 0.30, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.34, p<0.001, adjusted OR of resuscitation in asystole relative to ventricular fibrillation 0.21, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.26, p<0.001). Survival to hospital discharge was similar across all three ethnicities. CONCLUSIONS: While there were differences in some prognostic characteristics between blacks, whites and Asians, we did not detect a significant difference in survival following sudden cardiac arrest between the three ethnic groups. There was, however, an ethnic difference in presenting rhythm, with pulseless electrical activity more prevalent in blacks and asystole more prevalent in Asians.

Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Disability-Free Survival in the Cardiovascular Health Study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the associations between incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and disability-free survival and risk of disability. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Cardiovascular Health Study. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 65 and older and enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare followed between 1991 and 2009 (MN = 4,046). Individuals with prevalent AF, activity of daily living (ADL) disability, or a history of stroke or heart failure at baseline were excluded. MEASUREMENTS: Incident AF was identified according to annual study electrocardiogram, hospital discharge diagnosis, or Medicare claims. Disability-free survival was defined as survival free of ADL disability (any difficulty or inability in bathing, dressing, eating, using the toilet, walking around the home, or getting out of a bed or chair). ADLs were assessed at annual study visits or in a telephone interview. Association between incident AF and disability-free survival or risk of disability was estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Over an average of 7.0 years of follow-up, 660 individuals (16.3%) developed incident AF, and 3,112 (77%) became disabled or died. Incident AF was associated with shorter disability-free survival (hazard ratio (HR) for death or ADL disability = 1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.55-1.90) and a higher risk of ADL disability (HR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.18-1.58) than in individuals with no history of AF. This association persisted after adjustment for interim stroke and heart failure. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that AF is a risk factor for shorter functional longevity in older adults, independent of other risk factors and comorbid conditions.

Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially Diverse Cohort: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND: Existing equations for prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed and validated in white and African-American populations. Whether these models adequately predict AF in more racially and ethnically diverse populations is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 6663 men and women 45 to 84 years of age without AF at baseline (2000-2002) enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Of these, 38% were non-Hispanic whites, 28% non-Hispanic African Americans, 22% Hispanics, and 12% Chinese Americans. AF during follow-up was ascertained from hospitalization discharge codes through 2012. Information collected at baseline was used to calculate predicted 5-year risk of AF using the previously published simple CHARGE-AF model, which only includes clinical variables, and a biomarker-enriched CHARGE-AF model, which also considers levels of circulating N-terminal of the prohormone B-type natriuretic peptide and C-reactive protein. For comparison purposes, we also assessed performance of the 10-year Framingham AF model. During a mean follow-up of 10.2 years, 351 cases of AF were identified. The C-statistic of the CHARGE-AF models were 0.779 (95% CI, 0.744-0.814) for the simple model and 0.825 (95% CI, 0.791-0.860) for the biomarker-enriched model. Calibration was adequate in the biomarker-enriched model (χ(2)=7.9; P=0.55), but suboptimal in the simple model (χ(2)=25.6; P=0.002). In contrast, the 10-year Framingham score had a C-statistic (95% CI) of 0.746 (0.720-0.771) and showed poor calibration (χ(2)=57.4; P<0.0001). CONCLUSION: The CHARGE-AF risk models adequately predicted 5-year AF risk in a large multiethnic cohort. These models could be useful to select high-risk individuals for AF screening programs or for primary prevention trials in diverse populations.

Study of Cardiovascular Health Outcomes in the Era of Claims Data: The Cardiovascular Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Increasingly, the diagnostic codes from administrative claims data are being used as clinical outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) were used to compare event rates and risk factor associations between adjudicated hospitalized cardiovascular events and claims-based methods of defining events. The outcomes of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and heart failure were defined in 3 ways: the CHS adjudicated event (CHS[adj]), selected International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition diagnostic codes only in the primary position for Medicare claims data from the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS[1st]), and the same selected diagnostic codes in any position (CMS[any]). Conventional claims-based methods of defining events had high positive predictive values but low sensitivities. For instance, the positive predictive value of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition code 410.x1 for a new acute MI in the first position was 90.6%, but this code identified only 53.8% of incident MIs. The observed event rates for CMS[1st] were low. For MI, the incidence was 14.9 events per 1000 person-years for CHS[adj] MI, 8.6 for CMS[1st] MI, and 12.2 for CMS[any] MI. In general, cardiovascular disease risk factor associations were similar across the 3 methods of defining events. Indeed, traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors were also associated with all first hospitalizations not resulting from an MI. CONCLUSIONS: The use of diagnostic codes from claims data as clinical events, especially when restricted to primary diagnoses, leads to an underestimation of event rates. Additionally, claims-based events data represent a composite end point that includes the outcome of interest and selected (misclassified) nonevent hospitalizations.

Geographic variation in the use of catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation among Medicare beneficiaries.

BACKGROUND: Catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation is used increasingly in older patients, yet the risks and benefits are not completely understood. With such uncertainty, local medical opinion may influence catheter ablation use. METHODS: In a 100% sample of Medicare beneficiaries ≥65 years who underwent catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2009, we investigated variation in use by hospital referral region (HRR) for 20,176 catheter ablation procedures. RESULTS: Across 274 HRRs, median age was 71.2 years (interquartile range 70.5-71.8), a median of 98% of patients were white, and a median of 39% of patients were women. The median age-standardized prevalence of atrial fibrillation was 77.1 (69.4-84.2) per 1,000 beneficiaries; the median rate of catheter ablation was 3.5 (2.4-4.9) per 1,000 beneficiaries. We found no significant associations between the rate of catheter ablation and prevalence of atrial fibrillation (P = .99), end-of-life Medicare expenditures per capita (P = .09), or concentration of cardiologists (P = .45) but a slight association with Medicare expenditures per capita (linear regression estimate 0.016; 95% CI 0.001-0.031; P = .04). Examined HRR characteristics explained only 2% of the variation in HRR-level rates of catheter ablation (model R(2) = 0.016). CONCLUSION: The rate of catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation in older patients was low, varied substantially by region, and was not associated with the prevalence of atrial fibrillation, the availability of cardiologists, or end-of-life resource use and was only slightly associated with overall Medicare expenditures per capita.

Contraindications to anticoagulation therapy and eligibility for novel anticoagulants in older patients with atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Oral anticoagulation therapy prevents stroke and improves survival in patients with atrial fibrillation, but the therapy is underutilized. We sought to identify the prevalence of contraindications for oral anticoagulation and the proportion of patients potentially eligible for different agents. METHODS: We identified patients with nonacute atrial fibrillation in a nationally representative 5% sample of 2009 Medicare data. We divided the population into patients ineligible for any oral anticoagulant, patients eligible for warfarin only, and patients eligible for any anticoagulant. We compared patient characteristics and the use of anticoagulation among the subgroups. RESULTS: Among 86,671 patients with atrial fibrillation, 1872 (2.2%) were ineligible for anticoagulation because of an absolute contraindication, most frequently a history of intracranial hemorrhage (60%). Patients ineligible for any anticoagulant were the same age as the overall group (mean age, 80.5 vs. 80.4 years). However, they had higher rates of dementia (19% vs. 8.6%) and heart failure (59% vs. 43%) and higher mean CHADS2 scores (3.8 vs. 2.8). Of the remaining 84,799 patients eligible for anticoagulation, 7146 (8.4%) were eligible for warfarin only (most commonly because of mechanical heart valves [66%] and end-stage renal disease [12%]). Sixty-five percent of patients eligible for anticoagulation received warfarin, and the proportion was similar for patients with a relatively high risk of bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults with atrial fibrillation rarely have absolute contraindications to oral anticoagulation therapy. Among patients without contraindications, most appeared to be eligible for any anticoagulant, and relatively high-risk features appeared not to influence warfarin use.

Evaluation of Medicare claims data to ascertain peripheral vascular events in the Women's Health Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: Capturing long-term outcomes from large clinical databases by use of claims data is a potential strategy for improving efficiency while reducing study costs. We sought to compare the use of Medicare data with data from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) to determine peripheral vascular events, as defined by the WHI study design. METHODS: We studied participants from the WHI with both adjudicated outcomes and links to Medicare enrollment and utilization data through 2007. Outcomes of interest included hospitalizations for treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), lower extremity peripheral artery disease (LE PAD), and carotid artery stenosis (CAS). Events determined by WHI adjudication were compared with events defined by coding algorithms using diagnosis and procedure codes from Medicare data with a pilot data set and then validated with a test data set. We assessed agreement by a κ statistic and evaluated reasons for disagreement. RESULTS: In the pilot set, records from 50,511 participants were analyzed. Agreement between the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and WHI for admissions with a diagnosis but no treatment procedures for vascular conditions was poor (κ, 0.02-0.18). On the basis of WHI outcome data collection, vascular treatment procedures occurred in 29 participants for AAA, 204 for LE PAD events, and 281 for CAS. Medicare hospital claims recorded 41 treatments for AAA, 255 for LE PAD, and 317 for CAS. For participants with a Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services-captured vascular procedure and a record adjudicated by WHI, κ values for treatment procedures were 0.81 for AAA, 0.77 for PAD, and 0.93 for CAS. For vascular procedures identified by WHI but not by Medicare hospital data (n = 82), 55% were captured by Medicare physician claims. Conversely, for treatments identified by Medicare hospital data but not captured by WHI adjudication (n = 57), 74% had physician claims consistent with the procedure. Fifteen participants with AAA or LE PAD procedures in hospital claims had medical records available for review, and nine of these had definitive documentation of procedures that were not captured by the WHI adjudication process. Estimated positive predictive value of Medicare data was 91% to 94% for AAA, 92% to 95% for LE PAD, and 94% to 99% for CAS. Available test set data (n = 50,253) yielded generally similar results with κ of 0.77 for AAA, 0.79 for LE PAD, and 0.94 for CAS. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare data appear useful for identifying vascular treatment procedures for WHI participants. Medicare hospital claims identify more procedures than WHI does, with high positive predictive value, but also may not capture some procedures identified in WHI.

Intake of long-chain ω-3 fatty acids from diet and supplements in relation to mortality.

Evidence from experimental studies suggests that the long-chain ω-3 fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid have beneficial effects that may lead to reduced mortality from chronic diseases, but epidemiologic evidence is mixed. Our objective was to evaluate whether intake of long-chain ω-3 fatty acids from diet and supplements is associated with cause-specific and total mortality. Study participants (n = 70,495) were members of a cohort study (the Vitamins and Lifestyle Study) who were residents of Washington State aged 50-76 years at the start of the study (2000-2002). Participants were followed for mortality through 2006 (n = 3,051 deaths). Higher combined intake of eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid from diet and supplements was associated with a decreased risk of total mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73, 0.93) and mortality from cancer (HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.92) but only a small reduction in risk of death from cardiovascular disease (HR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.68, 1.10). These results suggest that intake of long-chain ω-3 fatty acids may reduce risk of total and cancer-specific mortality.

Use of Medicare data to identify coronary heart disease outcomes in the Women's Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Data collected as part of routine clinical practice could be used to detect cardiovascular outcomes in pragmatic clinical trials or clinical registry studies. The reliability of claims data for documenting outcomes is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: We linked records of Women's Health Initiative (WHI) participants aged ≥65 years to Medicare claims data and compared hospitalizations that had diagnosis codes for acute myocardial infarction or coronary revascularization with WHI outcomes adjudicated by study physicians. We then compared the hazard ratios for active versus placebo hormone therapy based solely on WHI-adjudicated events with corresponding hazard ratios based solely on claims data for the same hormone trial participants. Agreement between WHI-adjudicated outcomes and Medicare claims was good for the diagnosis of myocardial infarction (κ, 0.71-0.74) and excellent for coronary revascularization (κ, 0.88-0.91). The hormone:placebo hazard ratio for clinical myocardial infarction was 1.31 (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.67) based on WHI outcomes and 1.29 (95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.68) based on Medicare data. The hazard ratio for coronary revascularization was 1.09 (95% confidence interval, 0.88-1.35) based on WHI outcomes and 1.10 (95% confidence interval, 0.89-1.35) based on Medicare data. The differences between hazard ratios derived from WHI and Medicare data were not significant in 1000 bootstrap replications. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare claims may provide useful data on coronary heart disease outcomes among patients aged ≥65 years in clinical research studies. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION INFORMATION: URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00000611.

Atrial fibrillation among Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized with sepsis: incidence and risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) during severe sepsis is associated with increased risks of in-hospital stroke and mortality. However, the prevalence, incidence, and risk factors associated with AF during the sepsis syndromes are unclear. METHODS: We identified patients with preexisting, newly diagnosed, or no AF in a nationally representative 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized with sepsis between 2004 and 2007. We identified multivariable-adjusted demographic and clinical characteristics associated with development of newly diagnosed AF during a sepsis hospitalization. RESULTS: A total of 60,209 beneficiaries had a sepsis hospitalization. Mean age was 80.2 years, 44.4% were men, and 83.1% were white. Atrial fibrillation occurred during 25.5% (95% CI 25.2-25.9) of sepsis hospitalizations, including 18.3% (18.0%-18.7%) with preexisting AF and 7.2% (7.0%-7.4%) with newly diagnosed AF. Patients with sepsis requiring intensive care had a greater risk of newly diagnosed AF (10.7%, 95% CI 10.3%-11.1%) compared with patients who did not require intensive care (4.4%, 4.2%-4.5%, P < .001). In multivariable analysis, factors associated with newly diagnosed AF during sepsis included older age, white race, acute organ dysfunction, intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation, right heart catheterization, diagnosis of endocarditis, and coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Cardiovascular comorbid conditions generally were not associated with increased risk for newly diagnosed AF during sepsis. CONCLUSIONS: Atrial fibrillation is common among critically ill patients with sepsis. Acute factors, rather than preexisting cardiovascular comorbid conditions, are associated with increased risk for newly diagnosed AF during sepsis, suggesting that mechanisms of newly diagnosed AF during sepsis may differ from the general population of patients with AF.