Non-invasive testing for early detection of neovascular macular degeneration in unaffected second eyes of older adults: EDNA diagnostic accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: Neovascular age-related macular degeneration is a leading cause of sight loss, and early detection and treatment is important. For patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration in one eye, it is usual practice to monitor the unaffected eye. The test used to diagnose neovascular age-related macular degeneration, fundus fluorescein angiography, is an invasive test. Non-invasive tests are available, but their diagnostic accuracy is unclear. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective was to determine the diagnostic monitoring performance of tests for neovascular age-related macular degeneration in the second eye of patients with unilateral neovascular age-related macular degeneration. The secondary objectives were the cost-effectiveness of tests and to identify predictive factors of developing neovascular age-related macular degeneration. DESIGN: This was a multicentre, prospective, cohort, comparative diagnostic accuracy study in a monitoring setting for up to 3 years. A Cox regression risk prediction model and a Markov microsimulation model comparing cost-effectiveness of the index tests over 25 years were used. SETTING: This took place in hospital eye services. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were adults (aged 50-95 years) with newly diagnosed (within the previous 6 weeks) neovascular age-related macular degeneration in one eye and an unaffected second (study) eye who were attending for treatment injections in the first eye and who had a study eye baseline visual acuity of ≥ 68 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study letters. INTERVENTIONS: The index tests were Amsler chart (completed by participants), fundus clinical examination, optical coherence tomography, self-reported vision assessment (completed by participants) and visual acuity. The reference standard was fundus fluorescein angiography. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measures were sensitivity and specificity; the performance of the risk predictor model; and costs and quality-adjusted life-years. RESULTS: In total, 552 out of 578 patients who consented from 24 NHS hospitals (n = 16 ineligible; n = 10 withdrew consent) took part. The mean age of the patients was 77.4 years (standard deviation 7.7 years) and 57.2% were female. For the primary analysis, 464 patients underwent follow-up fundus fluorescein angiography and 120 developed neovascular age-related macular degeneration on fundus fluorescein angiography. The diagnostic accuracy [sensitivity (%) (95% confidence interval); specificity (%) (95% confidence interval)] was as follows: optical coherence tomography 91.7 (85.2 to 95.6); 87.8 (83.8 to 90.9)], fundus clinical examination [53.8 (44.8 to 62.5); 97.6 (95.3 to 98.9)], Amsler [33.7 (25.1 to 43.5); 81.4 (76.4 to 85.5)], visual acuity [30.0 (22.5 to 38.7); 66.3 (61.0 to 71.1)] and self-reported vision [4.2 (1.6 to 9.8); 97.0 (94.6 to 98.5)]. Optical coherence tomography had the highest sensitivity across all secondary analyses. The final prediction model for neovascular age-related macular degeneration in the non-affected eye included smoking status, family history of neovascular age-related macular degeneration, the presence of nodular drusen with or without reticular pseudodrusen, and the presence of pigmentary abnormalities [c-statistic 0.66 (95% confidence interval 0.62 to 0.71)]. Optical coherence tomography monitoring generated the greatest quality-adjusted life-years gained per patient (optical coherence tomography, 5.830; fundus clinical examination, 5.787; Amsler chart, 5.736, self-reported vision, 5.630; and visual acuity, 5.600) for the lowest health-care and social care costs (optical coherence tomography, £19,406; fundus clinical examination, £19,649; Amsler chart, £19,751; self-reported vision, £20,198; and visual acuity, £20,444) over the lifetime of the simulated cohort. Optical coherence tomography dominated the other tests or had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below the accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds (£20,000) across the scenarios explored. LIMITATIONS: The diagnostic performance may be different in an unselected population without any history of neovascular age-related macular degeneration; the prediction model did not include genetic profile data, which might have improved the discriminatory performance. CONCLUSIONS: Optical coherence tomography was the most accurate in diagnosing conversion to neovascular age-related macular degeneration in the fellow eye of patients with unilateral neovascular age-related macular degeneration. Economic modelling suggests that optical coherence tomography monitoring is cost-effective and leads to earlier diagnosis of and treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration in the second eye of patients being treated for neovascular age-related macular degeneration in their first eye. FUTURE WORK: Future works should investigate the role of home monitoring, improved risk prediction models and impact on long-term visual outcomes. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study was registered as ISRCTN48855678. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Wet age-related macular degeneration is the leading cause of sight loss in older people. It is diagnosed using fundus fluorescein angiography, which involves photographing the retina after the injection of a dye into a vein in the arm, which may result in allergic reactions. Many people with wet age-related macular degeneration in one eye will also develop it in their second eye. To avoid regular fundus fluorescein angiography, non-invasive tests are used to routinely monitor for wet age-related macular degeneration in the second eye of patients with wet age-related macular degeneration already in one eye. We studied five commonly used and easily performed non-invasive tests to see which best detected the onset of wet age-related macular degeneration. The five tests were: self-report of visionself-completion of an Amsler charta standard sight testexamination of the retina by a specialistoptical coherence tomography, which is a non-invasive scan of the central retina. If any tests suggested wet age-related macular degeneration, fundus fluorescein angiography was performed to compare results. In total, 552 hospital eye clinic patients who had wet age-related macular degeneration in only one eye took part. Over a 3-year period, wet age-related macular degeneration developed in the second eye in 145 people (26%), of whom 120 had undergone fundus fluorescein angiography. In 25 people with wet age-related macular degeneration, fundus fluorescein angiography was not carried out for safety reasons or because the patient did not want to undergo it. Of all the tests, only optical coherence tomography was good at detecting wet age-related macular degeneration correctly (92% sensitivity) and at detecting those who did not have wet age-related macular degeneration (88% specificity). All other tests either did not detect wet age-related macular degeneration consistently when it occurred or gave a false positive result when it had not occurred. This study confirmed that optical coherence tomography detected wet age-related macular degeneration correctly in the second eye of people with wet age-related macular degeneration in their first eye, and may offer cost saving for the NHS.

Early detection of neovascular age-related macular degeneration: an economic evaluation based on data from the EDNA study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of non-invasive monitoring tests to detect the onset of neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) in the unaffected second eye of patients receiving treatment for unilateral nAMD in a UK National Health Service (NHS) hospital outpatient setting. METHODS: A patient-level state transition model was constructed to simulate the onset, detection, and treatment of nAMD in the second eye. Five index tests were compared: self-reported change in visual function, Amsler test, clinic measured change in visual acuity from baseline, fundus assessment by clinical examination or colour photography, and spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). Diagnosis of nAMD was confirmed by fundus fluorescein angiography (FFA) before prompt initiation of antivascular endothelial growth factor treatment. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs of health and social care were modelled over a 25-year time horizon. RESULTS: SD-OCT generated more QALYs (SD-OCT, 5.830; fundus assessment, 5.787; Amsler grid, 5.736, patient's subjective assessment, 5.630; and visual acuity, 5.600) and lower health and social care costs (SD-OCT, £19 406; fundus assessment, £19 649; Amsler grid, £19 751; patient's subjective assessment, £20 198 and visual acuity, £20 444) per patient compared with other individual monitoring tests. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated a high probability (97%-99%) of SD-OCT being the preferred test across a range of cost-effectiveness thresholds (£13 000-£30 000) applied in the UK NHS. CONCLUSIONS: Early treatment of the second eye following FFA confirmation of SD-OCT positive findings is expected to maintain better visual acuity and health-related quality of life and may reduce costs of health and social care over the lifetime of patients.

Cost-utility analysis of a decade of liver screening for metastases using the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online (LUMPO).

This paper outlines a method for cost-utility analysis of liver screening for metastases in patients with posterior uveal melanoma (UM). A semiparametric model of the cumulative incidence of onset of liver metastases was fitted to a retrospective data set of 615 subjects with clinical follow-up with respect to liver surveillance imaging and outcome. The model was internally validated via bootstrap resampling in terms of its discrimination and calibration performance. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were derived at different time points. The discrimination performances are consistent across time. The area under the ROC curve at 5 years post treatment was 0.85 [95% CI: 0.81-0.88]. A goodness-of-fit test gives χ2(10)=5.3,p=0.9 demonstrating no evidence against the null hypothesis of zero difference between observed and expected onset of metastatic events. Results showed that at 80% sensitivity, 87% of UM patients will avoid unnecessary radiological scans. This provides potential cost savings of between £46,000 and £97,000 per year to the National Health Service assuming 600 new cases per year.

Multicenter, International Assessment of the Eighth Edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer Cancer Staging Manual for Conjunctival Melanoma.

IMPORTANCE: Eye cancer staging systems used for standardizing patient care and research need to be validated. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Cancer Staging Manual in estimating metastatis and mortality rates of conjunctival melanoma. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This international, multicenter, registry-based case series pooled data from 10 ophthalmic oncology centers from 9 countries on 4 continents. A total of 288 patients diagnosed with conjunctival melanoma from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2013, were studied. Data analysis was performed from July 7, 2018, to September 11, 2018. INTERVENTIONS: Treatments included excision biopsy, cryotherapy, topical chemotherapy, radiation therapy, enucleation, and exenteration. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Metastasis rates and 5-year and 10-year Kaplan-Meier mortality rates according to the clinical T categories and subcategories of the eighth edition of the AJCC Cancer Staging Manual. RESULTS: A total of 288 eyes from 288 patients (mean [SD] age, 59.7 [16.8] years; 147 [51.0%] male) with conjunctival melanoma were studied. Clinical primary tumors (cT) were staged at presentation as cT1 in 218 patients (75.7%), cT2 in 34 (11.8%), cT3 in 15 (5.2%), and cTx in 21 (7.3%). There were no T4 tumors. Pathological T categories (pT) were pTis in 43 patients (14.9%), pT1 in 169 (58.7%), pT2 in 33 (11.5%), pT3 in 12 (4.2%), and pTx in 31 (10.8%). Metastasis at presentation was seen in 5 patients (1.7%). Metastasis during follow-up developed in 24 patients (8.5%) after a median time of 4.3 years (interquartile range, 2.9-6.0 years). Of the 288 patients, 29 died (melanoma-related mortality, 10.1%) at a median time of 5.3 years (interquartile range, 1.8-7.0 years). The cumulative rates of mortality among patients with cT1 tumors were 0% at 1 year, 2.5% (95% CI, 0.7%-7.7%) at 5 years, and 15.2% (95% CI, 8.1%-27.4%) at 10 years of follow-up; among patients with cT2 tumors, 0% at 1 year, 28.6% (95% CI, 12.9%-58.4%) at 5 years, and 43.6% (95% CI, 19.6%-77.9%) at 10 years of follow-up; and among patients with cT3 tumors, 21.1% (95% CI, 8.1%-52.7%) at 1 year of follow-up and 31.6% (95% CI, 13.5%-64.9%) at 5 years of follow-up. Patients with cT2 and cT3 tumors had a significantly higher cumulative mortality rate compared with those presenting with cT1 tumors (log-rank P < .001). Patients with ulcerated melanomas had significantly higher risk of mortality (hazard ratio, 7.58; 95% CI, 1.02-56.32; P = .04). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This multicenter, international, collaborative study yielded evidence that the conjunctival melanoma staging system in the eighth edition of the AJCC Cancer Staging Manual can be used to accurately estimate metastasis and mortality rates. These findings appear to support the use of AJCC staging as a tool for patient care and research.

Prognostication of metastatic death in uveal melanoma patients: A Markov multi-state model.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Uveal melanoma is fatal in almost 50% of patients. We previously developed a prognostic model to predict all-cause mortality. The aim of this study was to improve our model by predicting metastatic death as a cause-specific event distinct from other causes of death. METHODS: Patients treated in Liverpool were included if they resided in England, Scotland or Wales and if their uveal melanoma involved the choroid. They were flagged at the National Health Service Cancer Registry, which automatically informed us of the date and cause of death of any deceased patients. A semiparametric Markov multi-state model was fitted. Two different baseline hazard rates were assumed, with state transition-specific covariates. For both failure types, age at treatment and sex were used. For the metastatic death case, these factors were added: anterior margin position, largest basal tumour diameter, tumour thickness, extra-ocular extension, presence of epithelioid melanoma cells, presence of closed connective tissue loops, increased mitotic count, chromosome 3 loss, and chromosome 8q gain. Missing data required a multiple-imputation procedure. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 4161 patients, 893 of whom died of metastastic disease with another 772 dying of other causes. The optimism-corrected, bootstrapped C-index for metastatic death prediction was 0.86, denoting very good discriminative performance. Bootstrapped calibration curves at two and five years also showed very good performance. CONCLUSIONS: Our improved model provides reliable, personalised metastatic death prognostication using clinical, histological and genetic information, and it can be used as a decision support tool to individualize patient care in a clinical environment.

Scleral buckling versus primary vitrectomy in rhegmatogenous retinal detachment study (SPR study): Risk assessment of anatomical outcome. SPR study report no. 7.

PURPOSE: The 'Scleral buckling versus primary vitrectomy in rhegmatogenous retinal detachment study' (SPR study) is a randomized multicentre trial comparing primary vitrectomy (PV) and scleral buckling surgery (SB) for rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD). This subanalysis was conducted to identify risk factors associated with anatomical outcomes. METHODS: Relating the anatomical success results at the 1-year follow-up visit to pre- and intraoperative findings using multivariate statistical methods. RESULTS: In the phakic subtrial, anatomical success was negatively associated with the number of breaks (p < 0.0001), break extension > 1 clock hour (p = 0.0005) and intraoperative use of cryotherapy (p = 0.0484). It was positively associated with retinal breaks with irregular edges (p = 0.0353) and subretinal fluid drainage (p = 0.0155). In the pseudophakic/aphakic subtrial, anatomical success was negatively associated with the number of retinal breaks (p = 0.0004) and previous YAG capsulotomy (p = 0.0256), and the combined effect of the surgical procedure and intraoperative use of laser (p = 0.0229). CONCLUSION: Primary anatomical success is an important result for patients undergoing RRD surgery. Our data demonstrate that the final anatomical outcome is related to a higher preoperative number of breaks and cryotherapy in phakic eyes. Additional risk factors varied between phakic and pseudophakic subgroups. Our findings may be used to facilitate the prognosis of future patients with RRD.

Assessment of HOPE fixation in vitrectomy specimens in patients with chronic bilateral uveitis (masquerade syndrome).

BACKGROUND: Cytological examination of rapidly transported, unfixed vitreous specimens is considered the gold standard in exclusion of primary intraocular lymphoma (PIOL) in patients with idiopathic steroid resistant chronic uveitis. These specimens are difficult to interpret, and reports of "false negatives" or "false positives" are common. Fixation using HOPE solution (Herpes-glutamic acid buffer mediated Organic solvent Protection Effect) has been successfully applied in the investigation of cytospin preparations using immunocytology, in situ hybridisation and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The purpose of this study was to compare the cytologic features of vitrectomy specimens from patients with clinical reactive vitritis and PIOL prepared following HOPE fixation with those in conventional cytospins and to identify any diagnostic pitfalls. METHODS: Pars plana vitrectomy was performed in 15 cases of patients with chronic uveitis. The vitreous samples were halved: one half was fixed in HOPE solution; the other half remained unfixed. All samples were subject to conventional staining, immunocytology and clonality analysis using polymerase chain reaction (IgH-PCR) and GeneScan. The specimens were assessed following by two pathologists who were masked to the cytological preparation method. The specimens were evaluated for cellularity, cellular appearance, cytoplasmic and nuclear features as well as quality of the immunostains. RESULTS: Twelve of the fifteen vitreous samples were diagnosed as reactive vitritis; in three specimens, a primary intraocular lymphoma of B-cell type was diagnosed. Compared to the unfixed vitreal specimens, the quality of the cytomorphology and immunocytology improved in the HOPE-fixed specimens. IgH-PCR and GeneScan analysis demonstrated polyclonal amplification products in the reactive cases, and monoclonal B-cell populations in the B-PIOL. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate that cytomorphology and immunoreactivity of vitreous specimens are well preserved following HOPE fixation. DNA of sufficient quality could be extracted from HOPE-fixed vitreous biopsies, in order to perform clonality analyses. HOPE fixation appears to be promising in simplifying the transportation of these specimens, and may improve the diagnostic reliability of vitreous specimens in patients with masquerade syndrome.