Early transfusion patterns improve the Molecular International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-M) prediction in myelodysplastic syndromes.

BACKGROUND: The Molecular International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-M) is the new gold standard for diagnostic outcome prediction in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). This study was designed to assess the additive prognostic impact of dynamic transfusion parameters during early follow-up. METHODS: We retrieved complete transfusion data from 677 adult Swedish MDS patients included in the IPSS-M cohort. Time-dependent erythrocyte transfusion dependency (E-TD) was added to IPSS-M features and analyzed regarding overall survival and leukemic transformation (acute myeloid leukemia). A multistate Markov model was applied to assess the prognostic value of early changes in transfusion patterns. RESULTS: Specific clinical and genetic features were predicted for diagnostic and time-dependent transfusion patterns. Importantly, transfusion state both at diagnosis and within the first year strongly predicts outcomes in both lower (LR) and higher-risk (HR) MDSs. In multivariable analysis, 8-month landmark E-TD predicted shorter survival independently of IPSS-M (p < 0.001). A predictive model based on IPSS-M and 8-month landmark E-TD performed significantly better than a model including only IPSS-M. Similar trends were observed in an independent validation cohort (n = 218). Early transfusion patterns impacted both future transfusion requirements and outcomes in a multistate Markov model. CONCLUSION: The transfusion requirement is a robust and available clinical parameter incorporating the effects of first-line management. In MDS, it provides dynamic risk information independently of diagnostic IPSS-M and, in particular, clinical guidance to LR MDS patients eligible for potentially curative therapeutic intervention.

Role of reduced-intensity conditioning allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation in older patients with de novo myelodysplastic syndromes: an international collaborative decision analysis.

PURPOSE: Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are clonal hematopoietic disorders that are more common in patients aged ≥ 60 years and are incurable with conventional therapies. Reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) allogeneic hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation is potentially curative but has additional mortality risk. We evaluated RIC transplantation versus nontransplantation therapies in older patients with MDS stratified by International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) risk. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A Markov decision model with quality-of-life utility estimates for different MDS and transplantation states was assessed. Outcomes were life expectancy (LE) and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE). A total of 514 patients with de novo MDS aged 60 to 70 years were evaluated. Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia, isolated 5q- syndrome, unclassifiable, and therapy-related MDS were excluded. Transplantation using T-cell depletion or HLA-mismatched or umbilical cord donors was also excluded. RIC transplantation (n = 132) stratified by IPSS risk was compared with best supportive care for patients with nonanemic low/intermediate-1 IPSS (n = 123), hematopoietic growth factors for patients with anemic low/intermediate-1 IPSS (n = 94), and hypomethylating agents for patients with intermediate-2/high IPSS (n = 165). RESULTS: For patients with low/intermediate-1 IPSS MDS, RIC transplantation LE was 38 months versus 77 months with nontransplantation approaches. QALE and sensitivity analysis did not favor RIC transplantation across plausible utility estimates. For intermediate-2/high IPSS MDS, RIC transplantation LE was 36 months versus 28 months for nontransplantation therapies. QALE and sensitivity analysis favored RIC transplantation across plausible utility estimates. CONCLUSION: For patients with de novo MDS aged 60 to 70 years, favored treatments vary with IPSS risk. For low/intermediate-1 IPSS, nontransplantation approaches are preferred. For intermediate-2/high IPSS, RIC transplantation offers overall and quality-adjusted survival benefit.

Cost effectiveness of lenalidomide in the treatment of transfusion-dependent myelodysplastic syndromes in the United States.

Lenalidomide has been approved for the treatment of transfusion-dependent low- or intermediate-1-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) associated with a chromosome 5q deletion with or without additional cytogenetic abnormalities. We evaluated the cost effectiveness of lenalidomide versus best supportive care (BSC) in these patients. We developed a decision analytic model to compare costs and outcomes of lenalidomide with BSC without recombinant erythropoietin (EPO) versus BSC with EPO over 1 year. Outcome measures were transfusion independence and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. The model incorporated costs of medications, transfusions, chelation, laboratory tests, office visits, and other resources associated with each therapy. Lenalidomide therapy was associated with an estimated incremental 0.53 transfusion-free and 0.25 QALY gain compared to BSC at 1 year. The costs of lenalidomide therapy were substantially offset by reduced blood transfusion and EPO costs. One-year total treatment costs were estimated at $63,385 for lenalidomide and $54,940 for BSC. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for lenalidomide vs BSC was estimated at $16,066 per transfusion-free year and $35,050 per QALY gained, values within the acceptable cost-effectiveness ranges for a new therapy. Results suggest that oral lenalidomide is cost effective in the United States in the treatment of transfusion-dependent, low- or intermediate-1-risk MDS associated with a deletion 5q cytogenetic abnormality. Confirmation of these findings awaits results of an ongoing randomized phase III trial (MDS-004 study).

A validated decision model for treating the anaemia of myelodysplastic syndromes with erythropoietin + granulocyte colony-stimulating factor: significant effects on quality of life.

We have published previously a prototype of a decision model for anaemic patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), in which transfusion need and serum erythropoietin (S-Epo) were used to define three groups with different probabilities of erythroid response to treatment with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) + Epo. S-Epo 500 U/l and >/= 2 units/month for a poor response, whereas the presence of only one negative prognostic marker predicted an intermediate response. A total of 53 patients from a prospective study were included in our evaluation sample. Patients with good or intermediate probability of response were treated with G-CSF + Epo. The overall response rate was 42% with 28.3% achieving a complete and 13.2% a partial response to treatment. The response rates were 61% and 14% in the good and intermediate predictive groups respectively. The model retained a significant predictive value in the evaluation sample (P < 0.001). Median duration of response was 23 months. Scores for global health and quality of life (QOL) were significantly lower in MDS patients than in a reference population, and fatigue and dyspnoea was significantly more prominent. Global QOL improved in patients responding to treatment (P = 0.01). The validated decision model defined a subgroup of patients with a response rate of 61% (95% confidence interval 48-74%) to treatment with G-CSF + Epo. The majority of these patients have shown complete and durable responses.