Updated Public Health Impact and Cost Effectiveness of Recombinant Zoster Vaccine in Canadian Adults Aged 50 Years and Older.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to update previously estimated public health impact and cost effectiveness of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) for the prevention of herpes zoster (HZ) in Canadians aged ≥50 years using longer-term RZV efficacy and waning data and real-world coverage and completion. METHODS: A multicohort Markov model was used to conduct a cost-utility analysis comparing RZV with no HZ vaccination among Canadians aged ≥50 years. Real-world data were used for first-dose coverage (17.5%) and second-dose completion (65%). Vaccine efficacy and waning data were applied from up to 8-year follow-up from the ZOE-50 and ZOE-70 clinical trials. Incremental costs and benefits were calculated using a lifetime horizon from the healthcare payer (base case) and societal perspectives. A discount rate of 1.5% was applied to costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). RESULTS: The model estimated that RZV would prevent 303,835 HZ cases, 83,256 post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) cases, 39,653 other complications, and 99 HZ-related deaths compared with no HZ vaccination. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated to be $27,486 and $22,097 per QALY (2022 Canadian dollars [CAN$]) from the healthcare payer and societal perspectives, respectively. The base-case ICER was most sensitive to a lower percentage of initial HZ cases with PHN. Almost all probabilistic sensitivity analysis simulations (98.1%) resulted in ICERs

The Annual Economic Burden of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Adults in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Current estimates of the economic burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are needed for policymakers to evaluate adult RSV vaccination strategies. METHODS: A cost-of-illness model was developed to estimate the annual societal burden of RSV in US adults aged ≥60 years. Additional analyses were conducted to estimate the burden of hospitalized RSV in all adults aged 50-59 years and in adults aged 18-49 years with potential RSV risk factors. RESULTS: Among US adults aged ≥60 years, the model estimated 4.0 million annual RSV cases (95% UI, 2.7-5.6 million) and an annual economic burden of $6.6 billion (95% UI, $3.1-$12.9 billion; direct medical costs, $2.9 billion; indirect costs, $3.7 billion). The 4% of RSV cases that were hospitalized contributed to 94% of direct medical costs. Additional analyses estimated $422 million in annual hospitalization costs among all adults aged 50-59 years. Among adults aged 18-49 years with RSV risk factors, annual per capita burden was highest among people with congestive heart failure at $51,100 per 1000 people. DISCUSSION: The economic burden of RSV is substantial among adults aged ≥50 years, and among adults aged 18-49 years with RSV risk factors, underscoring the need for preventive interventions for these populations.

Cost-Effectiveness of Recombinant Zoster Vaccine for the Prevention of Herpes Zoster in Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Recipients and Other Immunocompromised Adults in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Immunocompromised (IC) adults are at increased risk of developing herpes zoster (HZ) and HZ-related complications due to therapy or underlying disease. This study evaluated the cost effectiveness of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) versus no vaccine for the prevention of HZ in hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) recipients and other IC adults aged ≥ 18 years in the United States (US). METHODS: A static Markov model simulated cohorts of IC individuals using a 1-year cycle length and 30-year time horizon to estimate the cost effectiveness of RZV. Inputs were sourced from clinical trial results and publicly available sources/literature. Modeled populations included US adult HSCT recipients (base case), patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), patients with breast cancer, patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma, and renal transplant recipients. The model reported societal costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Sensitivity and threshold analyses were conducted. RESULTS: In the base case of 19,671 US adult HSCT recipients, RZV resulted in total societal cost savings of US$0.1 million and 109 incremental QALYs versus no vaccine. RZV was a 'dominant strategy' versus no vaccine because vaccination resulted in cost savings with QALY gains. RZV was also cost saving in renal transplant recipients, and cost effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$100,000 per QALY gained in patients with HIV, breast cancer, and Hodgkin's lymphoma, with ICERs of US$33,268, US$67,682, and US$95,972 per QALY gained, respectively, versus no vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: Model results show RZV is potentially cost saving for the prevention of HZ in US adult HSCT recipients and US adults with selected immunocompromising conditions, and cost effective for others, supporting the use of RZV to prevent HZ and HZ-related complications in IC adults.

Public health impact of recombinant zoster vaccine for prevention of herpes zoster in US adults immunocompromised due to cancer.

Individuals who are immunocompromised (IC) due to therapy or underlying disease are at increased risk of herpes zoster (HZ). This study evaluates the public health impact of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) relative to no HZ vaccination for the prevention of HZ among adults aged ≥18 years diagnosed with selected cancers in the United States (US). A static Markov model was used to simulate three cohorts of individuals who are IC with cancer (time horizon of 30 years; one-year cycle length): hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) recipients, patients with breast cancer (BC; a solid tumor example), and patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL; a hematological malignancy example). Cohort sizes reflect the estimated annual incidence of each condition in the US population (19,671 HSCT recipients, 279,100 patients with BC, and 8,480 patients with HL). Vaccination with RZV resulted in 2,297; 38,068; and 848 fewer HZ cases for HSCT recipients, patients with BC, and patients with HL, respectively (each versus no vaccine). Vaccination with RZV also resulted in 422; 3,184; and 93 fewer postherpetic neuralgia cases for HSCT, BC, and HL, respectively. Analyses estimated the quality-adjusted life years gained to be 109, 506, and 17 for HSCT, BC, and HL, respectively. To prevent one HZ case, the number needed to vaccinate was 9, 8, and 10, for HSCT, BC, and HL, respectively. These results suggest RZV vaccination may be an effective option to significantly reduce HZ disease burden among patients diagnosed with selected cancers in the US.

Shingles cases can be prevented by recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV). People who have a weakened immune system (immunocompromised) due to disease or therapy are more likely to develop shingles. For example, shingles occurs in nearly a quarter of patients receiving immunosuppressive treatment for blood cancers. To estimate the public health impact of vaccination against shingles in people who are immunocompromised due to cancer in the United States (US), we used a model to simulate groups with selected types of cancer. The results indicate vaccination with RZV can significantly reduce shingles cases and related complications among these groups in the US.

Estimating the cost of university-based outbreaks of serogroup B meningococcal disease with different pre-matriculation vaccination policies in the United States.

Objective: We developed an Excel-based cost calculator to assess the economic burden of university-based Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B (MenB) outbreaks. Participants: Hypothetical university with 6,354 students. Methods: Total societal costs of outbreak were estimated for three MenB pre-matriculation immunization policies-vaccination required, vaccination recommended, and no vaccine policy-under three different cost assumptions (low/mid-range/high cost). Results: Mid-range cost estimates of an outbreak under "no policy" were $2.60 and $2.70 million (of which 35% were incurred by the university) if targeting all undergraduates for mass vaccination with a two-/three-dose vaccine, respectively. The "required" and "recommended" policies lowered the burden to $2.17-$2.18 million and $2.34-$2.39 million, respectively. For a larger university with 40,000 students, costs were almost $9 million for a two-dose vaccine with "no policy" in place. Conclusions: The economic burden of a university MenB outbreak is substantial, but could be mitigated by a pre-matriculation MenB vaccination requirement or recommendation.

Optimizing HIV Prevention Efforts to Achieve EHE Incidence Targets.

BACKGROUND: A goal of the US Department of Health and Human Services' Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) in the United States initiative is to reduce the annual number of incident HIV infections in the United States by 75% within 5 years and by 90% within 10 years. We developed a resource allocation analysis to understand how these goals might be met. METHODS: We estimated the current annual societal funding [$2.8 billion (B)/yr] for 14 interventions to prevent HIV and facilitate treatment of infected persons. These interventions included HIV testing for different transmission groups, HIV care continuum interventions, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services programs. We developed scenarios optimizing or reallocating this funding to minimize new infections, and we analyzed the impact of additional EHE funding over the period 2021-2030. RESULTS: With constant current annual societal funding of $2.8 B/yr for 10 years starting in 2021, we estimated the annual incidence of 36,000 new cases in 2030. When we added annual EHE funding of $500 million (M)/yr for 2021-2022, $1.5 B/yr for 2023-2025, and $2.5 B/yr for 2026-2030, the annual incidence of infections decreased to 7600 cases (no optimization), 2900 cases (optimization beginning in 2026), and 2200 cases (optimization beginning in 2023) in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Even without optimization, significant increases in resources could lead to an 80% decrease in the annual HIV incidence in 10 years. However, to reach both EHE targets, optimization of prevention funding early in the EHE period is necessary. Implementing these efficient allocations would require flexibility of funding across agencies, which might be difficult to achieve.

Optimal Allocation of Societal HIV Prevention Resources to Reduce HIV Incidence in the United States.

Objectives. To optimize combined public and private spending on HIV prevention to achieve maximum reductions in incidence.Methods. We used a national HIV model to estimate new infections from 2018 to 2027 in the United States. We estimated current spending on HIV screening, interventions that move persons with diagnosed HIV along the HIV care continuum, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services programs. We compared the current funding allocation with 2 optimal scenarios: (1) a limited-reach scenario with expanded efforts to serve eligible persons and (2) an ideal, unlimited-reach scenario in which all eligible persons could be served.Results. A continuation of the current allocation projects 331 000 new HIV cases over the next 10 years. The limited-reach scenario reduces that number by 69%, and the unlimited reach scenario by 94%. The most efficient funding allocations resulted in prompt diagnosis and sustained viral suppression through improved screening of high-risk persons and treatment adherence support for those infected.Conclusions. Optimal allocations of public and private funds for HIV prevention can achieve substantial reductions in new infections. Achieving reductions of more than 90% under current funding will require that virtually all infected receive sustained treatment.

Cost-effectiveness of an adjuvanted recombinant zoster vaccine in older adults in the United States who have been previously vaccinated with zoster vaccine live.

Zoster Vaccine Live (ZVL) is marketed in the US since 2008, and a non-live adjuvanted Recombinant Zoster Vaccine (RZV) was approved in 2017. Literature suggests that waning of ZVL efficacy may necessitate additional vaccination. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended vaccination with RZV in immunocompetent adults aged 50+ years old, including those previously vaccinated with ZVL. The objective of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating US adults aged 60+ years old, previously vaccinated with ZVL. The ZOster ecoNomic Analysis (ZONA) model, a deterministic Markov model, was adapted to follow a hypothetical 1 million(M)-person cohort of US adults previously vaccinated with ZVL. Model inputs included demographics, epidemiology, vaccine characteristics, utilities and costs. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were presented over the lifetimes of the cohort from the year of additional vaccination, discounted 3% annually. The model estimated that, vaccination with RZV 5 years after previous vaccination with ZVL, would reduce disease burden compared with no additional vaccination, resulting in a gain of 1,633 QALYs at a total societal cost of $96M (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $58,793/QALY saved). Compared with revaccinating with ZVL, vaccination with RZV would result in a gain of 1,187 QALYs and societal cost savings of almost $84M. Sensitivity, scenario, and threshold analyses demonstrated robustness of these findings. Vaccination with RZV is predicted to be cost-effective relative to no additional vaccination, assuming a threshold of $100,000/QALY, and cost-saving relative to ZVL revaccination of US adults aged 60+ years old who have been previously vaccinated with ZVL.

Allocating HIV prevention funds in the United States: recommendations from an optimization model.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had an annual budget of approximately $327 million to fund health departments and community-based organizations for core HIV testing and prevention programs domestically between 2001 and 2006. Annual HIV incidence has been relatively stable since the year 2000 and was estimated at 48,600 cases in 2006 and 48,100 in 2009. Using estimates on HIV incidence, prevalence, prevention program costs and benefits, and current spending, we created an HIV resource allocation model that can generate a mathematically optimal allocation of the Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention's extramural budget for HIV testing, and counseling and education programs. The model's data inputs and methods were reviewed by subject matter experts internal and external to the CDC via an extensive validation process. The model projects the HIV epidemic for the United States under different allocation strategies under a fixed budget. Our objective is to support national HIV prevention planning efforts and inform the decision-making process for HIV resource allocation. Model results can be summarized into three main recommendations. First, more funds should be allocated to testing and these should further target men who have sex with men and injecting drug users. Second, counseling and education interventions ought to provide a greater focus on HIV positive persons who are aware of their status. And lastly, interventions should target those at high risk for transmitting or acquiring HIV, rather than lower-risk members of the general population. The main conclusions of the HIV resource allocation model have played a role in the introduction of new programs and provide valuable guidance to target resources and improve the impact of HIV prevention efforts in the United States.

Benefits and costs of substance abuse treatment programs for state prison inmates: results from a lifetime simulation model.

Reflecting drug use patterns and criminal justice policies throughout the 1990s and 2000s, prisons hold a disproportionate number of society's drug abusers. Approximately 50% of state prisoners meet the criteria for a diagnosis of drug abuse or dependence, but only 10% receive medically based drug treatment. Because of the link between substance abuse and crime, treating substance abusing and dependent state prisoners while incarcerated has the potential to yield substantial economic benefits. In this paper, we simulate the lifetime costs and benefits of improving prison-based substance abuse treatment and post-release aftercare for a cohort of state prisoners. Our model captures the dynamics of substance abuse as a chronic disease; estimates the benefits of substance abuse treatment over individuals' lifetimes; and tracks the costs of crime and criminal justice costs related to policing, adjudication, and incarceration. We estimate net societal benefits and cost savings to the criminal justice system of the current treatment system and five policy scenarios. We find that four of the five policy scenarios provide positive net societal benefits and cost savings to the criminal justice system relative to the current treatment system. Our study demonstrates the societal gains to improving the drug treatment system for state prisoners.

A tool for the economic analysis of mass prophylaxis operations with an application to H1N1 influenza vaccination clinics.

This article uses the 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccination program experience to introduce a cost analysis approach that may be relevant for planning mass prophylaxis operations, such as vaccination clinics at public health centers, work sites, schools, or pharmacy-based clinics. These costs are important for planning mass influenza vaccination activities and are relevant for all public health emergency preparedness scenarios requiring countermeasure dispensing. We demonstrate how costs vary depending on accounting perspective, staffing composition, and other factors. We also describe a mass vaccination clinic budgeting tool that clinic managers may use to estimate clinic costs and to examine how costs vary depending on the availability of volunteers or donated supplies and on the number of patients vaccinated per hour. Results from pilot tests with school-based H1N1 influenza vaccination clinic managers are described. The tool can also contribute to planning efforts for universal seasonal influenza vaccination.

A model for allocating CDC's HIV prevention resources in the United States.

The Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention (DHAP) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has an annual budget of approximately $325 million for funding HIV prevention programs in the U.S. The purpose of this paper is to thoroughly describe the methods used to develop a national HIV resource allocation model intended to inform DHAP on allocation strategies that might improve the overall effectiveness of HIV prevention efforts. The HIV prevention resource allocation problem consists of choosing how to apportion prevention resources among interventions and populations so that HIV incidence is minimized, given a budget constraint. We developed an epidemic model that projects HIV infections over time given a specific allocation scenario. The epidemic model is then embedded in a nonlinear mathematical optimization program to determine the allocation scenario that minimizes HIV incidence over a 5-year horizon. In our model, we consider the general U.S. population and specific at-risk populations. The at-risk populations include 15 subgroups structured by gender, race/ethnicity and HIV transmission risk group. HIV transmission risk groups include high-risk heterosexuals, men who have sex with men and injection drug users. We consider HIV screening interventions and interventions to reduce HIV-related risk behaviors. The output of the model is the optimal funding scenario indicating the amounts to be allocated to all combinations of populations and interventions. For illustrative purposes only, we provide a sample application of the model. In this example, the optimal allocation scenario is compared to the current baseline funding scenario to highlight how the current allocation of funds could be improved. In the baseline allocation, 29% of the annual budget is aimed at the general population, while the model recommends targeting 100% of the budget to the at-risk populations with no allocation targeted to the general population. Within the allocation to behavioral interventions the model recommends an increase in targeting diagnosed positives. Also, the model allocation suggests a greater focus on MSM and IDUs with a 72% of the annual budget allocated to them, while the baseline allocation for MSM and IDUs totals 37%. Incorporating future epidemic trends in the decision-making process informs the selection of populations and interventions that should be targeted. Improving the use of funds by targeting the interventions and population subgroups at greatest risk may lead to improved HIV outcomes. These models can also direct research by pointing to areas where the development of cost-effective interventions can have the most impact on the epidemic.

Improvements in risk factor control among persons with diabetes in the United States: evidence and implications for remaining life expectancy.

AIMS: To examine whether A1c, blood pressure, and cholesterol values changed for U.S. adults with diagnosed diabetes between 1988-1994 and 2005-2006. We then project the impact of these changes on life expectancy and diabetes-related complications. METHODS: We estimated changes in hemoglobin A1c, blood pressure, and total cholesterol between 1988-1994 and 2005-2006 using regression analysis and data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We projected the potential effects on life expectancy and complications using the CDC-RTI Diabetes Cost-Effectiveness Model. RESULTS: A1c fell by 0.68 percentage points (P=0.001) among U.S. adults with diagnosed diabetes. Among those with diabetes and hypertension, systolic and diastolic blood pressure fell by 5.66 and 8.15mmHg, respectively (P=0.005 and P=0.001). Among those with diabetes and high cholesterol, total cholesterol fell by 36.41mg/dL (P=0.001). These improvements were projected to increase life expectancy for persons with newly diagnosed diabetes by 1.0 year. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factor control has improved in the United States. Persons newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes in 2005 have a better prognosis than persons diagnosed with diabetes 11 years earlier.

Allocating HIV prevention resources: a tool for state and local decision making.

The CDC provides funding for HIV prevention activities and state and local decision-makers must allocate these funds. The implementation of a resource allocation tool designed to facilitate this process that incorporates concepts of efficiency and equity as well as CDC mandates on the use of community planning groups is demonstrated, showing how information obtained from the resource allocation tool can be used to guide the policy analysis. The demonstration uses a simplified example based on data from Florida. The tool quantifies the inherent trade-offs associated with efficiency and equity and allows decision-makers to explore different ways of achieving equity. Given the underlying epidemiological model, results are not necessarily linear so common proportionality assumptions do not hold. However, a sense of equity can be provided by implementing various metrics allowing the policy maker flexibility in their decision process. By quantifying the impact of policy choices in terms of efficiency, cost, and distribution, the resource allocation tool makes the decision process more transparent and permits more informed choices.

Cost-effectiveness of screening for pre-diabetes among overweight and obese U.S. adults.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of screening overweight and obese individuals for pre-diabetes and then modifying their lifestyle based on the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A Markov simulation model was used to estimate disease progression, costs, and quality of life. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from a health care system perspective. We considered two screening/treatment strategies for pre-diabetes. Strategy 1 included screening overweight subjects and giving them the lifestyle intervention included in the DPP if they were diagnosed with both impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and impaired fasting glucose (IFG). Strategy 2 included screening followed by lifestyle intervention for subjects diagnosed with either IGT or IFG or both. Each strategy was compared with a program of no screening. RESULTS: Screening for pre-diabetes and treating those identified as having both IGT and IFG with the DPP lifestyle intervention had a cost-effectiveness ratio of $8,181 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) relative to no screening. If treatment was also provided to subjects with only IGT or only IFG (strategy 2), the cost-effectiveness ratio increased to $9,511 per QALY. Changes in screening-related parameters had small effects on the cost-effectiveness ratios; the results were more sensitive to changes in intervention-related parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for pre-diabetes in the overweight and obese U.S. population followed by the DPP lifestyle intervention has a relatively attractive cost-effectiveness ratio.

Cost-effectiveness of routine childhood vaccination for hepatitis A in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: Economic analysis is an important component in formulating national policy. We evaluated the economic impact of hepatitis A vaccination of all US children ages 12 to 23 months as compared with no vaccination and with current implementation of the preexisting (issued in 1999), regional policy. METHODS: We developed a Markov model of hepatitis A that followed a single cohort from birth in 2005 through death or age 95 years. From the societal perspective, the model compared the outcomes that resulted from routine vaccination at age 1 year to 2 scenarios: no hepatitis A vaccination and hepatitis A vaccination at levels observed in 2003 under the preexisting policy. We evaluated the economic impact of vaccination nationwide, in areas where vaccination was already recommended, and in areas where no previous recommendation existed. RESULTS: Without childhood vaccination, the approximately 4 million children in the 2005 birth cohort would be expected over their lifetimes to have 199,000 hepatitis A virus infections, including 74,000 cases of acute hepatitis A and 82 deaths, resulting in 134 million dollars in hepatitis A-related medical costs and productivity losses. Compared with no vaccination, routine vaccination at age 1 year would prevent 172,000 infections, at a cost of 28,000 dollars per quality-adjusted life year saved. Compared with maintaining the levels of hepatitis A vaccination under the preexisting regional policy, routine vaccination at age 1 year would prevent an additional 112,000 infections, at a cost of 45,000 dollars per quality-adjusted life year saved. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of nationwide hepatitis A vaccination compared with no vaccination, and the incremental cost-effectiveness of this recommendation compared with preexisting recommendations, is similar to that of other accepted public health interventions. In October 2005, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended extending hepatitis A immunization to all US children ages 12 to 23 months.

The economics of routine childhood hepatitis A immunization in the United States: the impact of herd immunity.

OBJECTIVES: Because of the herd-immunity phenomenon, the benefits of immunization against hepatitis A extend beyond those received by those who are vaccinated. This analysis estimates the impact of herd immunity on the cost-effectiveness of routine hepatitis A immunization among US children. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In an economic model, the costs and benefits of hepatitis A immunization were estimated for immunizing all US children at age 1 year over a 10-year period starting in 2005. The future burden of disease from hepatitis A was also estimated with this model, and the fraction that would be prevented by herd immunity was modeled by using a previously published analysis of the relationship between hepatitis A vaccination coverage and declines in hepatitis A incidence. RESULTS: Without accounting for herd-immunity effects, the costs of routine immunization would average 32,000 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year gained for the first 10 cohorts immunized starting with the 2005 birth cohort. Herd-immunity effects would be expected to produce substantial additional benefits, lowering the cost of the immunization program to 1000 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year gained for the first 10 cohorts. Herd-immunity benefits would be greatest for the first few cohorts, more than doubling the benefits of immunization, and would decline over time. In a univariate sensitivity analysis, estimates were most sensitive to vaccination costs but remained below 20,000 dollars per quality-adjusted life-year under all of the assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: Herd-immunity effects more than double the savings from hepatitis A immunization during the first 10 years of the program. After accounting for these effects, immunization is close to cost-neutral on a cost-per-quality-adjusted-life-year basis.

An evaluation of cost sharing to finance a diet and physical activity intervention to prevent diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) lifestyle intervention is a cost-effective strategy to prevent type 2 diabetes, but it is unclear how this intervention could be financed. We explored whether this intervention could be offered in a way that allows return on investment for private health insurers while remaining attractive for consumers, employers, and Medicare. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used the DPP and other published reports to build a Markov simulation model to estimate the lifetime progression of disease, costs, and quality of life for adults with impaired glucose tolerance. The model assumed a health-payer perspective and compared DPP lifestyle and placebo interventions. Primary outcomes included cumulative incidence of diabetes, direct medical costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and cost per QALY gained. RESULTS: Compared with placebo, providing the lifestyle intervention at age 50 years could prevent 37% of new cases of diabetes before age 65, at a cost of $1,288 per QALY gained. A private payer could reimburse $655 (24%) of the $2,715 in total discounted intervention costs during the first 3 intervention years and still recover all of these costs in the form of medical costs avoided. If Medicare paid up to $2,136 in intervention costs over the 15-year period before participants reached age 65, it could recover those costs in the form of future medical costs avoided beginning at age 65. CONCLUSIONS: Cost-sharing strategies to offer the DPP lifestyle intervention for eligible people between ages 50 and 64 could provide financial return on investment for private payers and long-term benefits for Medicare.

Benefits and costs of methadone treatment: results from a lifetime simulation model.

Several studies have examined the benefits and costs of drug treatment; however, they have typically focused on the benefits and costs of a single treatment episode. Although beneficial for certain analyses, the results are limited because they implicitly treat drug abuse as an acute problem that can be treated in one episode. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that incorporates the chronic nature of drug abuse. Our model represents the progression of individuals from the general population aged 18-60 with respect to their heroin use, treatment for heroin use, criminal behavior, employment, and health care use. We also present three model scenarios representing an increase in the probability of going to treatment, an increase in the treatment length of stay, and a scenario in which drug treatment is not available to evaluate how changes in treatment parameters affect model results. We find that the benefit-cost ratio of treatment from our lifetime model (37.72) exceeds the benefit-cost ratio from a static model (4.86). The model provides a rich characterization of the dynamics of heroin use and captures the notion of heroin use as a chronic recurring condition. Similar models can be developed for other chronic diseases, such as diabetes, mental illness, or cardiovascular disease.

Screening for type 2 diabetes mellitus: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: No randomized, controlled trial of screening for diabetes has been conducted. In the absence of direct evidence, cost-effectiveness models may provide guidance about preferred screening strategies. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of 2 diabetes screening strategies: screening targeted to people with hypertension and universal screening. DESIGN: Markov model. DATA SOURCES: United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study, Hypertension Optimal Treatment trial, and recent cost data. TARGET POPULATION: General primary care population in the United States. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Health care system. INTERVENTIONS: Diabetes screening targeted to people with hypertension and universal screening. OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Costs (in 1997 U.S. dollars) and QALYs discounted at a 3% annual rate. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: At all ages, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were more favorable for screening targeted to people with hypertension than for universal screening. For example, at age 55 years, the cost per QALY for targeted screening compared with no screening was 34,375 dollars, whereas the cost per QALY for universal screening compared with targeted screening was 360,966 dollars. Screening was more cost-effective for ages 55 to 75 years than for younger ages. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: In single-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, findings were robust to therapy costs, screening costs, screening lead time, reduced effectiveness of intensive antihypertensive therapy, and increased relative risk reduction for stroke attributable to intensive hypertension control. LIMITATIONS: We did not consider screening targeted to persons with dyslipidemia, and we used studies of people whose diabetes was detected clinically to estimate screening benefits. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes screening targeted to people with hypertension is more cost-effective than universal screening. The most cost-effective strategy is targeted screening at age 55 to 75 years.