RESUMO
Background and aims: Ceramides have been identified as novel biomarkers for cardiovascular disease (CVD) related events and mortality but their role in etiology of subclinical atherosclerosis is unknown. We aimed to assess association between plasma ceramides and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and evaluate predictive value of the ceramides for high CIMT over traditional CVD risk factors. Methods: Association between plasma ceramides and CIMT in the Young Finns Study participants was analyzed with CIMT as outcome and ceramides along with traditional risk factors as predictors with regression model. Predictive value of the ceramides and related coronary event risk test (CERT) score for high CIMT as surrogate marker of subclinical atherosclerosis was assessed by comparing logistic regression-based prediction models including, i) traditional risk factors and ceramides, ii) traditional risk factors and CERT score, iii) age, sex and ceramides or alternatively CERT score with a reference model including only traditional risk factors. The prediction models were fitted to training data (70% data) and tested on test data (30% data). The predictive models were assessed with area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). The variance of AUC was estimated by repeating the model fitting and testing for 1000 bootstraps of the original data. Results: Predictive models with plasma ceramides or alternatively with CERT score in addition to age and sex variables were able to predict high CIMT with AUC 0.726 and 0.720 respectively. However, the ceramides and CERT score did not have statistically significant added predictive value for high CIMT over traditional risk factors. Conclusions: The new systemic biomarkers, high-risk plasma ceramides and CERT score, showed promising predictive performance for high CIMT with only age and sex as additional variables. This may help in predicting subclinical atherosclerosis for primary prevention.
RESUMO
Background Identification of patients with stable coronary heart disease who are at significant residual risk could be helpful for targeted prevention. Our aim was to determine the prognostic value of the recently introduced ceramide- and phospholipid-based risk score, the Cardiovascular Event Risk Test (CERT2), in patients with stable coronary heart disease on optimal medical therapy and to identify biological processes that contribute to the CERT2 score. Methods and Results Plasma samples (n=11 222) obtained from the STABILITY (Stabilization of Atherosclerotic Plaque by Initiation of Darapladib Therapy) trial were analyzed using a tandem liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry method. STABILITY was a trial in patients with stable coronary heart disease randomized to the lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 inhibitor darapladib or placebo on optimized medical therapy at baseline, with a median follow-up of 3.7 years. Hazard ratios per SD for the CERT2 risk score were 1.32 (95% CI, 1.25-1.39) for major adverse cardiovascular event, 1.47 (95% CI, 1.35-1.59) for cardiovascular death, 1.32 (95% CI, 1.16-1.49) for stroke, 1.23 (95% CI, 1.14-1.33) for myocardial infarction, and 1.56 (95% CI, 1.39-1.76) for hospitalization due to heart failure, when adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. CERT2 showed correlation (P<0.001, r>0.2) with inflammatory markers high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin 6, the heart failure marker N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. After also adjusting for levels of other prognostic biomarkers, the CERT2 score was still independently related to the risk of cardiovascular death but not to nonfatal events. Conclusions The CERT2 risk score can detect residual risk in patients with stable coronary heart disease and is associated with biomarkers indicating inflammation, myocardial necrosis, myocardial dysfunction, renal dysfunction, and dyslipidemia. REGISTRATION URL: https://www.cliniâcaltrâials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00799903.