The disease burden of hepatitis C in Belgium: development of a realistic disease control strategy.

BACKGROUND: Novel direct antiviral agents (DAAs) will become available soon with higher sustained viral response (SVR), fewer side-effects and higher compliance. Our aim was to evaluate different realistic strategies to control the projected increase in HCV-related disease burden in Belgium. METHODS: Based on literature review, expert opinions and historical assumptions, HCV-disease progression and mortality in Belgium was modeled to 2030. Strategies exploring the impact of increased treatment, treatment delay, and treatment restrictions were developed. RESULTS: Although the overall HCV prevalence is decreasing in Belgium, the burden of advanced stage HCV, including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is expected to increase under current treatment and cure rates. By increasing SVR to 90% from 2016 onward and the number of treated cases (from 710 to 2,050), in 2030 the cases with cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and HCC would be significantly lower than in 2013. This strategy was found most efficient when applied to F2-F4 cases. To obtain comparable outcomes with F0-F4 cases, 3,490 patients should be treated. A two year delayed access to the DAAs increased HCV related morbidity and mortality by 15% relative to our strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the evolving burden of HCV disease and the need for efficacious usage of healthcare resources, primary application of new DAAs in Belgium should focus on patients with significant and advanced fibrosis (F2-F4), providing these new drugs without delay upon availability and increasing access to therapy.

Current and future health and economic impact of hepatitis C in Belgium.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a serious global health problem affecting 150 million individuals worldwide. Although infection rates are decreasing, an aging population with progressing disease is expected to result in increased burden of advanced stage disease with high associated costs. This analysis describes the current and projected future economic impact of HCV sequelae in Belgium. METHODS: A previously described and validated model was populated with Belgian inputs and calibrated to project the current and future health and economic burden of HCV. Monte Carlo and sensitivity analyses were run to quantify uncertainty. All estimates exclude the cost of antiviral therapy. RESULTS: Costs associated with HCV were projected to peak in 2026 at Euro126M (Euro30M-Euro257M), while decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma costs were projected to increase until 2031 and 2034. The projected 2014-2030 cumulative cost of HCV under current conditions was Euro1,850M. Scenarios to reduce the burden of HCV could result in Euro70M-Euro400M in cumulative cost savings. Starting treatment (1,000 patients) in 2015 could result in Euro150M cost savings. The lifetime cost of HCV increases with life expectancy, with highest future costs projected among young females with early stage disease. CONCLUSIONS: The economic burden of HCV and advanced stage disease were projected to further increase. Cost reductions are possible with timely interventions aimed at minimizing the health burden of advanced stage disease.