Randomized comparison of chest pain evaluation with FFRCT or standard care: Factors determining US costs.

BACKGROUND: FFRCT assesses the functional significance of lesions seen on CTCA, and may be a more efficient approach to chest pain evaluation. The FORECAST randomized trial found no significant difference in costs within the UK National Health Service, but implications for US costs are unknown. The purpose of this study was to compare costs in the FORECAST trial based on US healthcare cost weights, and to evaluate factors affecting costs. METHODS: Patients with stable chest pain were randomized either to the experimental strategy (CTCA with selective FFRCT), or to standard clinical pathways. Pre-randomization, the treating clinician declared the planned initial test. The primary outcome was nine-month cardiovascular care costs. RESULTS: Planned initial tests were CTCA in 912 patients (65%), stress testing in 393 (28%), and invasive angiography in 94 (7%). Mean US costs did not differ overall between the experimental strategy and standard care (cost difference +7% (+$324), CI -12% to +26%, p â€‹= â€‹0.49). Costs were 4% lower with the experimental strategy in the planned invasive angiography stratum (p for interaction â€‹= â€‹0.66). Baseline factors independently associated with costs were older age (+43%), male sex (+55%), diabetes (+37%), hypertension (+61%), hyperlipidemia (+94%), prior angina (+24%), and planned invasive angiography (+160%). Post-randomization cost drivers were coronary revascularization (+348%), invasive angiography (267%), and number of tests (+35%). CONCLUSIONS: Initial evaluation of chest pain using CTCA with FFRCT had similar US costs as standard care pathways. Costs were increased by baseline coronary risk factors and planned invasive angiography, and post-randomization invasive procedures and the number of tests. Registration at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03187639).

Association of Premature Menopause With Risk of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm in the Women's Health Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if premature menopause and early menarche are associated with increased risk of AAA, and to explore potential effect modification by smoking history. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Despite worse outcomes for women with AAA, no studies have prospectively examined sex-specific risk factors, such as premature menopause and early menarche, with risk of AAA in a large, ethnically diverse cohort of women. METHODS: This was a post-hoc analysis of Women's Health Initiative participants who were beneficiaries of Medicare Parts A&B fee-for-service. AAA cases and interventions were identified from claims data. Follow-up period included Medicare coverage until death, end of follow-up or end of coverage inclusive of 2017. RESULTS: Of 101,119 participants included in the analysis, the mean age was 63 years and median follow-up was 11.3 years. Just under 10,000 (9.4%) women experienced premature menopause and 22,240 (22%) experienced early men-arche. Women with premature menopause were more likely to be overweight, Black, have >20 pack years of smoking, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and early menarche. During 1,091,840 person-years of follow-up, 1125 women were diagnosed with AAA, 134 had premature menopause (11.9%), 93 underwent surgical intervention and 45 (48%) required intervention for ruptured AAA. Premature menopause was associated with increased risk of AAA [hazard ratio 1.37 (1.14, 1.66)], but the association was no longer significant after multivariable adjustment for demographics and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Amongst women with ≥20 pack year smoking history (n = 19,286), 2148 (11.1%) had premature menopause, which was associated with greater risk of AAA in all models [hazard ratio 1.63 (1.24, 2.23)]. Early menarche was not associated with increased risk of AAA. CONCLUSIONS: This study finds that premature menopause may be an important risk factor for AAA in women with significant smoking history. There was no significant association between premature menopause and risk of AAA amongst women who have never smoked. These results suggest an opportunity to develop strategies for better screening, risk reduction and stratification, and outcome improvement in the comprehensive vascular care of women.

Women's Health Initiative Strong and Healthy Pragmatic Physical Activity Intervention Trial for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention: Design and Baseline Characteristics.

BACKGROUND: National guidelines promote physical activity to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD), yet no randomized controlled trial has tested whether physical activity reduces CVD. METHODS: The Women's Health Initiative (WHI) Strong and Healthy (WHISH) pragmatic trial used a randomized consent design to assign women for whom cardiovascular outcomes were available through WHI data collection (N = 18 985) or linkage to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (N30 346), to a physical activity intervention or "usual activity" comparison, stratified by ages 68-99 years (in tertiles), U.S. geographic region, and outcomes data source. Women assigned to the intervention could "opt out" after receiving initial physical activity materials. Intervention materials applied evidence-based behavioral science principles to promote current national recommendations for older Americans. The intervention was adapted to participant input regarding preferences, resources, barriers, and motivational drivers and was targeted for 3 categories of women at lower, middle, or higher levels of self-reported physical functioning and physical activity. Physical activity was assessed in both arms through annual questionnaires. The primary outcome is major cardiovascular events, specifically myocardial infarction, stroke, or CVD death; primary safety outcomes are hip fracture and non-CVD death. The trial is monitored annually by an independent Data Safety and Monitoring Board. Final analyses will be based on intention to treat in all randomized participants, regardless of intervention engagement. RESULTS: The 49 331 randomized participants had a mean baseline age of 79.7 years; 84.3% were White, 9.2% Black, 3.3% Hispanic, 1.9% Asian/Pacific Islander, 0.3% Native American, and 1% were of unknown race/ethnicity. The mean baseline RAND-36 physical function score was 71.6 (± 25.2 SD). There were no differences between Intervention (N = 24 657) and Control (N = 24 674) at baseline for age, race/ethnicity, current smoking (2.5%), use of blood pressure or lipid-lowering medications, body mass index, physical function, physical activity, or prior CVD (10.1%). CONCLUSION: The WHISH trial is rigorously testing whether a physical activity intervention reduces major CV events in a large, diverse cohort of older women. Clinical Trials Registration Number: NCT02425345.

Lipoprotein(a) levels and risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm in the Women's Health Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: Few studies have prospectively examined the associations of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] levels with the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), especially in women. Accounting for commonly recognized risk factors, we investigated the baseline Lp(a) levels and the risk of AAA among postmenopausal women participating in the ongoing national Women's Health Initiative. METHODS: Women's Health Initiative participants with baseline Lp(a) levels available who were beneficiaries of Medicare parts A and B fee-for-service at study enrollment or who had aged into Medicare at any point were included. Participants with missing covariate data or known AAA at baseline were excluded. Thoracic aneurysms were excluded owing to the different pathophysiology. The AAA cases and interventions were identified using the International Classification of Diseases, 9th and 10th revision, codes and Current Procedural Terminology codes from claims data. Hazard ratios were computed using Cox proportional hazard models according to the quintiles of Lp(a). RESULTS: The mean age of the 6615 participants included in the analysis was 65.3 years. Of the 6615 participants, 66.6% were non-Hispanic white, 18.9% were black, 7% were Hispanic and 4.7% were Asian/Pacific Islander. Compared with the participants in the lowest Lp(a) quintile, those in higher quintiles were more likely to be overweight, black, and former or current smokers, to have hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and a history of cardiovascular disease, and to use menopausal hormone therapy and statins. During 65,476 person-years of follow-up, with a median of 10.4 years, 415 women had been diagnosed with an AAA and 36 had required intervention. More than one half had required intervention for a ruptured AAA. We failed to find a statistically significant association between Lp(a) levels and incident AAA. Additional sensitivity analyses stratified by race, with exclusion of statin users and alternative categorizations of Lp(a) using log-transformed levels, tertiles, and a cutoff of >50 mg/dL, were conducted, which did not reveal any significant associations. CONCLUSIONS: We found no statistically significant association between Lp(a) levels and the risk of AAA in a large and well-phenotyped sample of postmenopausal women. Women with high Lp(a) levels were more likely to be overweight, black, and former or current smokers, and to have hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and a history of cardiovascular disease, or to use hormone therapy and statins compared with those with lower Lp(a) levels. These findings differ from previous prospective, case-control, and meta-analysis studies that had supported a significant relationship between higher Lp(a) levels and an increased risk of AAA. Differences in the association could have resulted from study limitations or sex differences.

Fractional Flow Reserve Derived from Computed Tomography Coronary Angiography in the Assessment and Management of Stable Chest Pain: Rationale and Design of the FORECAST Trial.

BACKGROUND: Fractional flow reserve measurement based on computed tomography (FFRCT) is a novel, well validated, non-invasive method for determining the presence and extent of coronary artery disease (CAD) combined with a physiological assessment of vessel-specific ischemia in patients with chest pain. Previous studies indicate that FFRCT reduces the uptake of invasive angiography that shows no significant CAD, without compromising patient safety. The clinical effectiveness and economic impact of using FFRCT instead of other tests in the initial evaluation of patients with stable chest pain has not been tested in a randomized trial. METHODS: The FORECAST trial will randomise 1400 patients with stable chest pain to receive either FFRCT or routine clinical assessment as directed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) CG95 guideline for Chest Pain of Recent Onset. The primary endpoint will be resource utilisation over the subsequent nine months, including non-invasive cardiac investigations, invasive coronary angiography, coronary revascularization, hospitalization for cardiac events, and the use of cardiac medications. Key pre-specified secondary endpoints will be major adverse cardiac events, angina severity, quality of life, patient satisfaction, time to definitive management plan, time to completion of initial evaluation, number of hospital attendances, and working days lost in patients who are in employment. CONCLUSION: The FORECAST randomized trial will assess the clinical and economic outcomes of using FFRCT as the primary test to evaluate patients presenting with stable chest pain.

Socioeconomic position and one-year mortality risk among patients with heart failure: A nationwide register-based cohort study.

AIMS: We sought to determine whether socioeconomic position affects the survival of patients with heart failure treated in a national healthcare system. METHODS: We linked national Danish registers, identified 145,690 patients with new-onset heart failure between 2000 and 2015, and obtained information on education and income levels. We analysed differences in survival by income quartile and educational level using multiple Cox regression, stratified by sex. We standardised one-year mortality risks according to income level by age, year of diagnosis, cohabitation status, educational level, comorbidities and medical treatment of all patients. We standardised one-year mortality risk according to educational level by age and year of diagnosis. RESULTS: One-year mortality was inversely related to income. In women the standardised average one-year mortality risk was 28.0% in the lowest income quartile and 24.3% in the highest income quartile, a risk difference of -3.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) -4.9% to -2.6%). In men the standardised one-year mortality risk was 26.1% in the lowest income quartile and 20.2% in the highest income quartile, a risk difference of -5.8% (95% CI -6.8% to -4.9%). Similar gradients in standardised mortality were present between the highest and lowest educational levels: -6.6% (95% CI -9.6% to -3.5%) among women and -5.0% (95% CI -6.3% to -3.7%) among men. CONCLUSIONS: Income and educational level affect the survival of patients with heart failure, even in a national health system. Research is needed to investigate how socioeconomic differences affect survival.

Cost-effectiveness of Canakinumab for Prevention of Recurrent Cardiovascular Events.

Importance: In the Canakinumab Anti-inflammatory Thrombosis Outcome Study (CANTOS) trial, the anti-inflammatory monoclonal antibody canakinumab significantly reduced the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with previous myocardial infarction (MI) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) levels of 2 mg/L or greater. Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of adding canakinumab to standard of care for the secondary prevention of major cardiovascular events over a range of potential prices. Design, Setting, and Participants: A state-transition Markov model was constructed to estimate costs and outcomes over a lifetime horizon by projecting rates of recurrent MI, coronary revascularization, infection, and lung cancer with and without canakinumab treatment. We used a US health care sector perspective, and the base case used the current US market price of canakinumab of $73 000 per year. A hypothetical cohort of patients after MI aged 61 years with an hs-CRP level of 2 mg/L or greater was constructed. Interventions: Canakinumab, 150 mg, administered every 3 months plus standard of care compared with standard of care alone. Main Outcomes and Measures: Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), discounted at 3% annually. Results: Adding canakinumab to standard of care increased life expectancy from 11.31 to 11.36 years, QALYs from 9.37 to 9.50, and costs from $242 000 to $1 074 000, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $6.4 million per QALY gained. The price would have to be reduced by more than 98% (to $1150 per year or less) to meet the $100 000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. These results were generally robust across alternative assumptions, eg, substantially lower health-related quality of life after recurrent cardiovascular events, lower infection rates while receiving canakinumab, and reduced all-cause mortality while receiving canakinumab. Including a potential beneficial effect of canakinumab on lung cancer incidence improved the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio to $3.5 million per QALY gained. A strategy of continuing canakinumab selectively in patients with reduction in hs-CRP levels to less than 2 mg/L would have a cost-effectiveness ratio of $819 000 per QALY gained. Conclusions and Relevance: Canakinumab is not cost-effective at current US prices for prevention of recurrent cardiovascular events in patients with a prior MI. Substantial price reductions would be needed for canakinumab to be considered cost-effective.

Impact of hormone therapy on Medicare spending in the Women's Health Initiative randomized clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Randomized trials can compare economic as well as clinical outcomes, but economic data are difficult to collect. Linking clinical trial data with Medicare claims could provide novel information on health care utilization and cost. METHODS: We linked data from Medicare claims of women ≥65 years old who had Medicare fee-for-service coverage with their clinical data from the Women's Health Initiative trials of conjugated equine estrogens plus medroxyprogesterone acetate (CEE+MPA) versus placebo and of CEE-alone versus placebo. The primary outcome was total Medicare spending during the intervention phase of the trial, and the secondary outcomes were spending on diseases hypothesized a priori to be sensitive to the effects of hormone therapy. RESULTS: In the CEE+MPA trial, 4,557 participants ≥65 years old were included. Women randomly assigned to CEE+MPA had 4% higher mean Medicare spending overall ($45,690 vs $43,920, P = .08) but 0.5% lower spending for hormone-sensitive diseases ($3,526 vs $3,547, P = .07), with 73% higher spending for coronary heart disease (P = .045) and 122% higher spending for pulmonary embolism (P = .026). In the CEE-alone trial, 3,107 participants were included. Total spending among women randomly assigned to CEE was 3.3% higher ($75,411 vs $72,997, P = .16), and 1.7% higher spending for hormone-sensitive diseases ($5,213 vs $5,127, P = .57), but with 39% lower spending for hip fracture (p<0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Menopausal hormone therapy increased spending for some diseases, but decreased spending for others. These offsetting effects led to modest (3%-4%), nonsignificant increases in overall spending among women aged 65 years and older.

Innovation in Heart Failure Treatment: Life Expectancy, Disability, and Health Disparities.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to illustrate the potential benefit of effective congestive heart failure (CHF) treatment in terms of improved health, greater social value, and reduced health disparities between black and white subpopulations. BACKGROUND: CHF affects 5.7 million Americans, costing $32 billion annually in treatment expenditures and lost productivity. CHF also contributes to health disparities between black and white Americans: black subjects develop CHF at a younger age and are more likely to be hospitalized and die of this disease. Improved CHF treatment could generate significant health benefits and reduce health disparities. METHODS: We adapted an established economic-demographic microsimulation to estimate scenarios in which a hypothetical innovation eliminates the incidence of CHF and, separately, 6 other diseases in patients 51 to 52 years of age in 2016. This cohort was followed up until death. We estimated total life years, quality-adjusted life years, and disability-free life years with and without the innovation, for the population overall and for race- and sex-defined subpopulations. RESULTS: CHF prevalence among 65- to 70-year-olds increased from 4.3% in 2012 to 8.5% in 2030. Diagnosis with CHF coincided with significant increases in disability and medical expenditures, particularly among black subjects. Preventing CHF among those 51 to 52 years of age in 2016 would generate nearly 2.9 million additional life years, 1.1 million disability-free life years, and 2.1 million quality-adjusted life years worth $210 to $420 billion. These gains are greater among black subjects than among white subjects. CONCLUSIONS: CHF prevalence will increase substantially over the next 2 decades and will affect black Americans more than white Americans. Improved CHF treatment could generate significant social value and reduce existing health disparities.

Clinical Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness of Fractional Flow Reserve-Guided Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease: Three-Year Follow-Up of the FAME 2 Trial (Fractional Flow Reserve Versus Angiography for Multivessel Evaluation).

BACKGROUND: Previous studies found that percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) does not improve outcome compared with medical therapy (MT) in patients with stable coronary artery disease, but PCI was guided by angiography alone. FAME 2 trial (Fractional Flow Reserve Versus Angiography for Multivessel Evaluation) compared PCI guided by fractional flow reserve with best MT in patients with stable coronary artery disease to assess clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness. METHODS: A total of 888 patients with stable single-vessel or multivessel coronary artery disease with reduced fractional flow reserve were randomly assigned to PCI plus MT (n=447) or MT alone (n=441). Major adverse cardiac events included death, myocardial infarction, and urgent revascularization. Costs were calculated on the basis of resource use and Medicare reimbursement rates. Changes in quality-adjusted life-years were assessed with utilities determined by the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions health survey at baseline and over follow-up. RESULTS: Major adverse cardiac events at 3 years were significantly lower in the PCI group compared with the MT group (10.1% versus 22.0%; P<0.001), primarily as a result of a lower rate of urgent revascularization (4.3% versus 17.2%; P<0.001). Death and myocardial infarction were numerically lower in the PCI group (8.3% versus 10.4%; P=0.28). Angina was significantly less severe in the PCI group at all follow-up points to 3 years. Mean initial costs were higher in the PCI group ($9944 versus $4440; P<0.001) but by 3 years were similar between the 2 groups ($16 792 versus $16 737; P=0.94). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for PCI compared with MT was $17 300 per quality-adjusted life-year at 2 years and $1600 per quality-adjusted life-year at 3 years. The above findings were robust in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: PCI of lesions with reduced fractional flow reserve improves long-term outcome and is economically attractive compared with MT alone in patients with stable coronary artery disease. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01132495.

PCSK9 Inhibitors: Economics and Policy.

Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors substantially reduce low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, but it is presently unclear whether they also reduce mortality. The list prices of PCSK9 inhibitors in the United States (>$14,500 per year) are >100× higher than generic statins, and only a small fraction of their higher cost is likely to be recovered by prevention of cardiovascular events. The projected cost effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitors does not meet generally accepted benchmarks for good value in the United States, but their value would be improved by substantial price reductions. For individual patients, the high out-of-pocket costs of PCSK9 inhibitors may impede access and reduce long-term adherence. The budgetary impact of PCSK9 inhibitors would be very large if all potentially eligible patients were treated, which poses dilemmas for policymakers, payers, and society.