Estimate of Burden and Direct Healthcare Cost of Infectious Waterborne Disease in the United States.

Provision of safe drinking water in the United States is a great public health achievement. However, new waterborne disease challenges have emerged (e.g., aging infrastructure, chlorine-tolerant and biofilm-related pathogens, increased recreational water use). Comprehensive estimates of the health burden for all water exposure routes (ingestion, contact, inhalation) and sources (drinking, recreational, environmental) are needed. We estimated total illnesses, emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, deaths, and direct healthcare costs for 17 waterborne infectious diseases. About 7.15 million waterborne illnesses occur annually (95% credible interval [CrI] 3.88 million-12.0 million), results in 601,000 ED visits (95% CrI 364,000-866,000), 118,000 hospitalizations (95% CrI 86,800-150,000), and 6,630 deaths (95% CrI 4,520-8,870) and incurring US $3.33 billion (95% CrI 1.37 billion-8.77 billion) in direct healthcare costs. Otitis externa and norovirus infection were the most common illnesses. Most hospitalizations and deaths were caused by biofilm-associated pathogens (nontuberculous mycobacteria, Pseudomonas, Legionella), costing US $2.39 billion annually.

Assessment of the Incubation Period for Invasive Listeriosis.

We characterized incubation periods among outbreak-associated listeriosis cases, using a simulation model to account for patients with multiple exposure dates. The median was 11 days; 90% of cases occurred within 28 days, and incubation periods varied by clinical manifestation.

Dynamics of shigellosis epidemics: estimating individual-level transmission and reporting rates from national epidemiologic data sets.

Shigellosis, a diarrheal disease, is endemic worldwide and is responsible for approximately 15,000 laboratory-confirmed cases in the United States every year. However, patients with shigellosis often do not seek medical care. To estimate the burden of shigellosis, we extended time-series susceptible-infected-recovered models to infer epidemiologic parameters from underreported case data. We applied the time-series susceptible-infected-recovered-based inference schemes to analyze the largest surveillance data set of Shigella sonnei in the United States from 1967 to 2007 with county-level resolution. The dynamics of shigellosis transmission show strong annual and multiyear cycles, as well as seasonality. By using the schemes, we inferred individual-level parameters of shigellosis infection, including seasonal transmissibilities and basic reproductive number (R0). In addition, this study provides quantitative estimates of the reporting rate, suggesting that the shigellosis burden in the United States may be more than 10 times the number of laboratory-confirmed cases. Although the estimated reporting rate is generally under 20%, and R0 is generally under 1.5, there is a strong negative correlation between estimates of the reporting rate and R0. Such negative correlations are likely to pose identifiability problems in underreported diseases. We discuss complementary approaches that might further disentangle the true reporting rate and R0.

Long-term impact of integration of household water treatment and hygiene promotion with antenatal services on maternal water treatment and hygiene practices in Malawi.

A clinic-based program to integrate antenatal services with distribution of hygiene kits including safe water storage containers, water treatment solution (brand name WaterGuard), soap, and hygiene education, was implemented in Malawi in 2007 and evaluated in 2010. We surveyed 389 participants at baseline in 2007, and found and surveyed 232 (60%) participants to assess water treatment, test stored drinking water for residual chlorine (an objective measure of treatment), and observe handwashing technique at follow-up in 2010. Program participants were more likely to know correct water treatment procedures (67% versus 36%; P < 0.0001), treat drinking water with WaterGuard (24% versus 2%; P < 0.0001), purchase and use WaterGuard (21% versus 1%; P < 0.001), and demonstrate correct handwashing technique (50% versus 21%; P < 0.001) at the three-year follow-up survey than at baseline. This antenatal-clinic-based program may have contributed to sustained water treatment and proper handwashing technique among program participants.

Application of Bayesian techniques to model the burden of human salmonellosis attributable to U.S. food commodities at the point of processing: adaptation of a Danish model.

Mathematical models that estimate the proportion of foodborne illnesses attributable to food commodities at specific points in the food chain may be useful to risk managers and policy makers to formulate public health goals, prioritize interventions, and document the effectiveness of mitigations aimed at reducing illness. Using human surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed Salmonella infections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Salmonella testing data from U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service's regulatory programs, we developed a point-of-processing foodborne illness attribution model by adapting the Hald Salmonella Bayesian source attribution model. Key model outputs include estimates of the relative proportions of domestically acquired sporadic human Salmonella infections resulting from contamination of raw meat, poultry, and egg products processed in the United States from 1998 through 2003. The current model estimates the relative contribution of chicken (48%), ground beef (28%), turkey (17%), egg products (6%), intact beef (1%), and pork (<1%) across 109 Salmonella serotypes found in food commodities at point of processing. While interpretation of the attribution estimates is constrained by data inputs, the adapted model shows promise and may serve as a basis for a common approach to attribution of human salmonellosis and food safety decision-making in more than one country.

Field trial of a low cost method to evaluate hand cleanliness.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a simple low cost method for measuring hand contamination as an objective assessment of handwashing practices. METHOD: As part of a larger randomized controlled trial of handwashing promotion with soap conducted in squatter settlements of Karachi, Pakistan, a randomly selected subset of 52 mothers in households receiving soap and handwashing promotion and 28 mothers in control households directly pressed three fingers of their right hand onto MacConkey agar plates on weekly unannounced visits from April to September 2002, and monthly from October 2002 to March 2003. The MacConkey plates were incubated at 44 degrees C for 24 h, and evaluated for growth of thermotolerant coliform bacteria. RESULTS: The proportion of samples that had detectable thermotolerant coliforms (50%) was similar in households that received soap and control households (52%, P = 0.40). In the week after evaluation of the mothers' hands, the proportion of households that reported diarrhoea was similar regardless of whether or not the mother had thermotolerant coliforms detected by direct finger imprint (18.6%vs. 19.1%, Relative Risk 0.99, 95% CI 0.96, 1.03). CONCLUSIONS: A three finger direct imprint test using MacConkey agar for thermotolerant coliforms was not a useful method to assess regular handwashing practices with soap in Karachi. Developing better measures of handwashing behaviour remains an important research priority.

Could a single dose of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children be effective? Modeling the optimal age of vaccination.

Using incidence rates from CDC's Active Bacterial Core surveillance and immunogenicity data from the Navajo/Apache trial of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), we used Markov modeling to predict the optimal age to give a single dose of PCV. Antibody concentration thresholds of 0.35 and 1.0 mcg/ml were considered protective. Our outcome was vaccine serotype-specific invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence at 24 months. The models predicted the optimal age to vaccinate is 5-7 months with vaccine-induced immunologic memory and 8-10 months without memory. IPD reduction ranged from 15 to 62%, depending on model parameters. A single PCV dose in infants could prevent substantial IPD.