Progress towards universal health coverage and inequalities in infant mortality: an analysis of 4·1 million births from 60 low-income and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: Expanding universal health coverage (UHC) might not be inherently beneficial to poorer populations without the explicit targeting and prioritising of low-income populations. This study examines whether the expansion of UHC between 2000 and 2019 is associated with reduced socioeconomic inequalities in infant mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We did a retrospective analysis of birth data compiled from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs). We analysed all births between 2000 and 2019 from all DHSs available for this period. The primary outcome was infant mortality, defined as death within 1 year of birth. Logistic regression models with country and year fixed effects assessed associations between country-level progress to UHC (using WHO's UHC service coverage index) and infant mortality (overall and by wealth quintile), adjusting for infant-level, mother-level, and country-level variables. FINDINGS: A total of 4 065 868 births to 1 833 011 mothers were analysed from 177 DHSs covering 60 LMICs between 2000 and 2019. A one unit increase in the UHC index was associated with a 1·2% reduction in the risk of infant death (AOR 0·988, 95% CI 0·981-0·995; absolute measure of association, 0·57 deaths per 1000 livebirths). An estimated 15·5 million infant deaths were averted between 2000 and 2019 because of increases in UHC. However, richer wealth quintiles had larger associated reductions in infant mortality from UHC (quintile 5 AOR 0·983, 95% CI 0·973-0·993) than poorer quintiles (quintile 1 0·991, 0·985-0·998). In the early stages of UHC, UHC expansion was generally beneficial to poorer populations (ie, larger reductions in infant mortality for poorer households [infant deaths per 1000 per one unit increase in UHC coverage: quintile 1 0·84 vs quintile 5 0·59]), but became less so as overall coverage increased (quintile 1 0·64 vs quintile 5 0·57). INTERPRETATION: Since UHC expansion in LMICs appears to become less beneficial to poorer populations as coverage increases, UHC policies should be explicitly designed to ensure lower income groups continue to benefit as coverage expands. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Racial inequalities in mental healthcare use and mortality: a cross-sectional analysis of 1.2 million low-income individuals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 2010-2016.

INTRODUCTION: Mental health inequalities across racial and ethnic groups are large and unjust in many countries, yet these inequalities remain under-researched, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries such as Brazil. This study investigates racial and socioeconomic inequalities in primary healthcare usage, hospitalisation and mortality for mental health disorders in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. METHODS: A cohort of 1.2 million low-income adults from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil with linked socioeconomic, demographic, healthcare use and mortality records was cross-sectionally analysed. Poisson regression models were used to investigate associations between self-defined race/colour and primary healthcare (PHC) usage, hospitalisation and mortality due to mental disorders, adjusting for socioeconomic factors. Interactions between race/colour and socioeconomic characteristics (sex, education level, income) explored if black and pardo (mixed race) individuals faced compounded risk of adverse mental health outcomes. RESULTS: There were 272 532 PHC consultations, 10 970 hospitalisations and 259 deaths due to mental disorders between 2010 and 2016. After adjusting for a wide range of socioeconomic factors, the lowest PHC usage rates were observed in black (adjusted rate ratio (ARR): 0.64; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.68; compared with white) and pardo individuals (ARR: 0.87; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.92). Black individuals were more likely to die from mental disorders (ARR: 1.68; 95% CI 1.19 to 2.37; compared with white), as were those with lower educational attainment and household income. In interaction models, being black or pardo conferred additional disadvantage across mental health outcomes. The highest educated black (ARR: 0.56; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.66) and pardo (ARR: 0.75; 95% CI 0.66 to 0.87) individuals had lower rates of PHC usage for mental disorders compared with the least educated white individuals. Black individuals were 3.7 times (ARR: 3.67; 95% CI 1.29 to 10.42) more likely to die from mental disorders compared with white individuals with the same education level. CONCLUSION: In low-income individuals in Rio de Janeiro, racial/colour inequalities in mental health outcomes were large and not fully explainable by socioeconomic status. Black and pardo Brazilians were consistently negatively affected, with lower PHC usage and worse mental health outcomes.

The heterogeneous effects of China's hierarchical medical system reforms on health service utilisation and health outcomes among elderly populations: a longitudinal quasi-experimental study.

BACKGROUND: System-wide, comprehensive, primary health care (PHC)-oriented health reforms are infrequently introduced in low-income and middle-income countries and often poorly studied. China initiated a large-scale reform in 2015 that included multiple policies: partial gatekeeping, a family physician scheme, and increased system integration. These policies aimed to build a PHC-oriented health system and improve primary care utilisation. This study assessed the heterogeneous effects of the reforms on health service utilisation and health outcomes across regions and over time. METHODS: In this longitudinal quasi-experimental study, we used longitudinal data (2011-18) from a national survey on elderly populations and governmental yearbooks. This study exploits the staggered rollout of the reforms at the city level identified using web-scrapping. We employed an event study design to assess reform effects on (1) visits to PHC facilities, (2) admissions to hospital, (3) out-of-pocket expenditures (OOPEs), and (4) self-reported health. Models were adjusted for city and time fixed effects, along with demographic and socioeconomic characteristics at individual and provincial levels. Analysis was separated into rural and urban populations. FINDINGS: 18 988 Chinese individuals aged 45 and older (mean age 60·4 years [SD 10·3], 9990 [52·6%] women, 8998 [47·4%] men) were included in the analysis. The reform was associated with increasing odds of visiting PHC facilities among rural populations, which became stronger in the 2 years after the reform (adjusted odd ratio [aOR] 1·35, 95% CI 1·02-1·84, p=0·0374; absolute effect sizes [probability] 3%) before it faded. Meanwhile, urban populations were unaffected (from aOR 1·22, 0·82-1·81 to 0·89, 0·50-1·57). The reform did not have a significant effect on admission to hospital (rural: from 0·97, 0·72-1·31 to 1·47, 0·85-2·55; urban: from 1·00, 0·69-1·43 to 1·59, 0·76-3·30) or OOPEs (rural: from 260·32 Chinese Yuan, 95% CI -6·34 to 526·97, to 693·07 Chinese Yuan, -102·96 to 1489·09; urban: from 235·37 Chinese Yuan, -405·10 to 875·83, to 859·93 Chinese Yuan, -199·02 to 1918·88). Urban populations reported higher self-reported health after the reforms than the year before the reforms (1·50, 1·12-2·01, p=0·0002; 5%). INTERPRETATION: System-wide PHC-oriented reforms might contribute to short-term increases in primary care utilisation in elderly populations with implications for urban-rural inequalities. Effects on financial protection and health inequality were limited. Efforts in improving the accessibility and quality of primary care in deprived areas are indispensable to addressing the persistent inverse care law and to achieving Universal Health Coverage for all countries. FUNDING: None.

Health and health system impacts of China's comprehensive primary healthcare reforms: a systematic review.

China's comprehensive primary healthcare (PHC) reforms since 2009 aimed to deliver accessible, efficient, equitable and high-quality healthcare services. However, knowledge on the system-wide effectiveness of these reforms is limited. This systematic review synthesizes evidence on the reforms' health and health system impacts. In 13 August 2022, international databases and three Chinese databases were searched for randomized controlled trials, quasi-experimental studies and controlled before-after studies. Included studies assessed large-scale PHC policies since 2009; had a temporal comparator and a control group and assessed impacts on expenditures, utilization, care quality and health outcomes. Study quality was assessed using Risk of Bias In Non-randomized Studies of Interventions, and results were synthesized narratively. From 49 174 identified records, 42 studies were included-all with quasi-experimental designs, except for one randomized control trial. Nine studies were assessed as at low risk of bias. Only five low- to moderate-quality studies assessed the comprehensive reforms as a whole and found associated increases in health service utilization, whilst the other 37 studies examined single-component policies. The National Essential Medicine Policy (N = 15) and financing reforms (N = 11) were the most studied policies, whilst policies on primary care provision (i.e. family physician policy and the National Essential Public Health Services) were poorly evaluated. The PHC reforms were associated with increased primary care utilization (N = 17) and improved health outcomes in people with non-communicable diseases (N = 8). Evidence on healthcare costs was unclear, and impacts on patients' financial burden and care quality were understudied. Some studies showed disadvantaged regions and groups that accrued greater benefits (N = 8). China's comprehensive PHC reforms have made some progress in achieving their policy objectives including increasing primary care utilization, improving some health outcomes and reducing health inequalities. However, China's health system remains largely hospital-centric and further PHC strengthening is needed to advance universal health coverage.

Associations between primary healthcare and infant health outcomes: a cohort analysis of low-income mothers in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Background: Expanding primary healthcare to urban poor populations is a priority in many low-and middle-income countries and is essential to achieve universal health coverage (UHC). Between 2008 and 2016 the city of Rio de Janeiro undertook an ambitious programme to rapidly expand primary care to low-income areas through the family health strategy (FHS). Infant health impacts of this roll out are unknown. This study examines associations between maternal FHS utilisation and birth outcomes, neonatal and infant mortality. Methods: A cohort of 75,339 live births (January 2009-December 2014) to low-income mothers in Rio de Janeiro was linked to primary care, birth, hospital and death records. The relationship between maternal FHS use and infant health outcomes was assessed through logistic regression with inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment. Socioeconomic inequalities in the associations between FHS use and outcomes were explored through interactions. Primary outcomes were neonatal and infant death. Thirteen secondary outcomes were also examined to explore other important health outcomes and potential mechanisms. Results: A total of 9002 (12.0%) infants were born to mothers in the cohort who used FHS services either before pregnancy or in the first two trimesters. There was a total of 527 neonatal and 893 infant deaths. Maternal FHS usage during the first two trimesters was associated with substantial reductions in neonatal [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.527, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.345; 0.806] and infant mortality (aOR: 0.672, 95% CI: 0.48; 0.924). Infants born to lower-income mothers and those without formal employment had larger reductions in neonatal and infant mortality associated with FHS use. Maternal FHS in the first two trimesters use was also associated with more antenatal care consultations and a lower risk of low birth weight and preterm birth. Interpretation: Expanding primary care to low-income populations in Rio de Janeiro was associated with improved infant health and health equity benefits. Funding: DFID/MRC/Wellcome Trust/ESRC.

Gender inequalities in violence victimization and depression in Brazil: results from the 2019 national health survey.

BACKGROUND: Violence is a worldwide public health challenge and has been linked to depression in many settings. Depression is higher in women and differential exposure to violence is a potential risk factor - especially in countries with high-levels of violence. This paper provides a comprehensive characterization of the association between violence victimization and depression in Brazil, focusing on sex/gender inequalities. METHODS: We used data from the 2019 wave of the National Health Survey (PNS) in Brazil to assess whether respondents had depression (using PHQ-9) and if they were victims of violence, differentiating by the type of violence, the frequency of victimization, and the primary aggressor. We used logit models to assess the association between victimization and the likelihood of having depression. We predicted probabilities of being depressed, considering the interaction between violence victimization and sex/gender, to analyze the differences between men and women. RESULTS: Rates of violence victimization and depression were higher among women than among men. The odds of being depressed were 3.8 (95%CI: 3.5-4.2) times higher among victims of violence than among non-victims, and 2.3 (95%CI: 2.1-2.6) times higher among women than among men, adjusting for socioeconomic factors. For any given income level, racial/ethnic or age group, victims of violence who were women had the highest predicted probabilities of being depressed - e.g., 29.4% (95%CI: 26.1-32.8) for lower-income women, 28.9% (95%CI: 24.4-33.2) for black women, and 30.4% (95%CI: 25.4-35.4) for younger women that suffered violence. Over one in three women that suffered multiple types of violence, experienced violence more frequently, or where the aggressor was an intimate partner or another family member were predicted to have depression. CONCLUSIONS: Being a victim of violence was strongly associated with higher risk of depression in Brazil, with women more likely to be both victims of violence and develop depression. Frequent, sexual, physical or psychological violence, and intimate partners or family member perpetrators were major risk factors for depression and should be a public health priority.

Primary health care as a platform for addressing racial discrimination to "leave no one behind" and reduce health inequities.

The health inequities faced by populations experiencing racial discrimination, including indigenous peoples and people of African descent, Roma, and other ethnic minorities, are an issue of global concern. Health systems have an important role to play in tackling these health inequities. Health systems based on comprehensive Primary Health Care (PHC) are best placed to tackle health inequities because PHC encompasses a whole-of-society approach to health. PHC includes actions to address the wider social determinants of health, multisectoral policy and action, intercultural and integrated healthcare services, community empowerment, and a focus on addressing health inequities. PHC can also serve as a platform for introducing specific actions to tackle racial discrimination and can act to drive wider societal change for tackling racial and ethnic health inequities.

Socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequalities in depression prevalence and the treatment gap in Brazil: A decomposition analysis.

Depression is a major global health burden and there are stark socioeconomic inequalities in both the prevalence of depression and access to treatment for depression. In Brazil, racial/ethnic inequalities are of particular concern, but the factors contributing to these inequalities remain mostly unknown. This paper firstly explores determinants of depression and the treatment gap (i.e., untreated afflicted individuals) in Brazil and identifies if socio-economic and health system factors explain changes over time. Secondly, it analyses income and racial/ethnic inequalities in depression and the treatment gap and identifies factors explaining inequalities through decomposition methods. Data from two waves (2013 and 2019) of a representative household-based survey are used. In 2019, 10.8% of adults were depressed, but over 70% of depressed adults did not receive care. Black or brown/mixed Brazilians were more likely to have untreated depression, and region of residence was the most important determinant of these racial/ethnic inequalities. Notably, 44.6% of the difference in the treatment gap between white individuals and black and brown/mixed individuals was not explained by differences in observables, which could potentially be due to discrimination or difficulties in accessing treatment due to other non-observable characteristics. Employment, age, exposure to violence and physical activity are the main contributing factors to income inequalities in depression. These results suggest that policies aimed at improving the levels of exposure of lower-income individuals to risk factors may positively impact mental health and mental health inequalities, while addressing inequalities in service provision and resourcing for mental health and tackling barriers to access stemming from discrimination are essential to bridge the treatment gap equitably.

Global inequalities in the double burden of malnutrition and associations with globalisation: a multilevel analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys from 55 low-income and middle-income countries, 1992-2018.

BACKGROUND: Low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) face a double burden of malnutrition (DBM), whereby overnutrition and undernutrition coexist within the same individual, household, or population. This analysis investigates global inequalities in household-level DBM, expressed as a stunted child with an overweight mother, and its association with economic, social, and political globalisation across country income and household wealth. METHODS: We pooled anthropometric and demographic data for 1 132 069 children (aged <5 years) and their mothers (aged 15-49 years) from 189 Demographic and Health Surveys in 55 LMICs between 1992 and 2018. These data were combined with country-level data on economic, social, and political globalisation from the Konjunkturforschungsstelle Globalisation Index and gross national income (GNI) from the World Bank. Multivariate associations between DBM and household wealth, GNI, and globalisation and their interactions were tested using multilevel logistic regression models with country and year fixed-effects and robust standard errors clustered by country. FINDINGS: The probability of DBM was higher among richer households in poorer LMICs and poorer households in richer LMICs. Economic globalisation was associated with higher odds of DBM among the poorest households (odds ratio 1·49, 95% CI 1·20-1·86) compared with the richest households. These associations attenuated as GNI increased. Social globalisation was associated with higher odds of DBM (1·39, 95% CI 1·16-1·65), independently of household wealth or country income. No associations were identified between political globalisation and DBM. INTERPRETATION: Increases in economic and social globalisation were associated with higher DBM, although the impacts of economic globalisation were mostly realised by the world's poorest. The economic patterning of DBM observed in this study calls for subpopulation-specific double-duty actions, which should further aim to mitigate the potential negative and unequal impacts of globalisation. FUNDING: UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council. TRANSLATIONS: For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Contribution of primary care expansion to Sustainable Development Goal 3 for health: a microsimulation of the 15 largest cities in Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: As middle-income countries strive to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it remains unclear to what degree expanding primary care coverage can help achieve those goals and reduce within-country inequalities in mortality. Our objective was to estimate the potential impact of primary care expansion on cause-specific mortality in the 15 largest Brazilian cities. DESIGN: Microsimulation model. SETTING: 15 largest cities by population size in Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: Simulated populations. INTERVENTIONS: We performed survival analysis to estimate HRs of death by cause and by demographic group, from a national administrative database linked to the Estratégia de Saúde da Família (Family Health Strategy, FHS) electronic health and death records among 1.2 million residents of Rio de Janeiro (2010-2016). We incorporated the HRs into a microsimulation to estimate the impact of changing primary care coverage in the 15 largest cities by population size in Brazil. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude and age-standardised mortality by cause, infant mortality and under-5 mortality. RESULTS: Increased FHS coverage would be expected to reduce inequalities in mortality among cities (from 2.8 to 2.4 deaths per 1000 between the highest-mortality and lowest-mortality city, given a 40 percentage point increase in coverage), between welfare recipients and non-recipients (from 1.3 to 1.0 deaths per 1,000), and among race/ethnic groups (between Black and White Brazilians from 1.0 to 0.8 deaths per 1,000). Even a 40 percentage point increase in coverage, however, would be insufficient to reach SDG targets alone, as it would be expected to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 20% (vs the target of 33%), and communicable diseases by 15% (vs 100%). CONCLUSIONS: FHS primary care coverage may be critically beneficial to reducing within-country health inequalities, but reaching SDG targets will likely require coordination between primary care and other sectors.

Inequalities in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors in Brazilian slum populations: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Social and environmental risk factors in informal settlements and slums may contribute to increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study assesses the socioeconomic inequalities in CVD risk factors in Brazil comparing slum and non-slum populations. METHODS: Responses from 94,114 individuals from the 2019 Brazilian National Health Survey were analysed. The United Nations Human Settlements Programme definition of a slum was used to identify slum inhabitants. Six behavioural risk factors, four metabolic risk factors and doctor-diagnosed CVD were analysed using Poisson regression models adjusting for socioeconomic characteristics. RESULTS: Compared to urban non-slum inhabitants, slum inhabitants were more likely to: have low (less than five days per week) consumption of fruits (APR: 1.04, 95%CI 1.01-1.07) or vegetables (APR: 1.08, 95%CI 1.05-1.12); drink four or more alcoholic drinks per day (APR: 1.05, 95%CI 1.03-1.06); and be physically active less than 150 minutes per week (APR: 1.03, 95%CI 1.01-1.04). There were no differences in the likelihoods of doctor-diagnosed metabolic risk factors or CVD between the two groups in adjusted models. There was a higher likelihood of behavioural and metabolic risk factors among those with lower education, with lower incomes, and the non-White population. CONCLUSIONS: Brazilians living in slums are at higher risk of behavioural risk factors for CVD, suggesting local environments might impact access to and uptake of healthy behaviours.

Expansion of primary healthcare and emergency hospital admissions among the urban poor in Rio de Janeiro Brazil: A cohort analysis.

Background: Robust evidence on the relationship between primary care and emergency admissions is lacking in low- and middle-income countries. This study evaluates how the phased roll out of the family health strategy (FHS) to the urban poor in Rio de Janeiro Brazil affected emergency hospital admissions and readmissions from ambulatory-care sensitives conditions (ACSCs). Methods: A cohort of 1.2 million adults in Rio de Janeiro city were followed for five years (Jan 2012 to Dec 2016). The association between FHS use and the likelihood of emergency hospital admissions and 30-day readmissions were evaluated using multi-level Poisson regression models with inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment (IPTW-RA) for socioeconomic and household characteristics. Inequalities in associations were examined across groups of causes and by key socioeconomic groups. Results: Records from 2,551,934 primary care consultations and 15,627 admissions were analysed. In IPTW-RA analyses, each additional FHS consultation was associated with a 3% lower rate of ACSC admission (RR: 0.97; 95%CI: 0.95, 0.98), a 63% lower rate of 30-day readmissions from any non-birth cause (RR: 0.37; 95%CI: 0.30, 0.46), and an 57% lower rate of 30-day readmissions from ACSCs (RR: 0.43; 95%CI: 0.33, 0.55). Individuals who were older, had the lowest educational attainment, were unemployed, and had higher incomes had larger reductions in ACSC admissions associated with FHS use. Interpretation: Investment in primary care is important for reducing emergency hospital admissions and their associated costs in LMICs. Funding: DFID/MRC/Wellcome Trust/ESRC.

Challenges facing the More Doctors program (Programa Mais Médicos) in vulnerable and peri-urban areas in Greater Brasilia, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: A shortage of physicians, especially in vulnerable and peri-urban areas, is a global phenomenon that has serious implications for health systems, demanding policies to assure the provision and retention of health workers. The aim of this study was to analyze the strategies employed by the More Doctors Program (Programa Mais Médicos) to provide primary care physicians in vulnerable and peri-urban parts of Greater Brasilia. METHODS: The study used a qualitative approach based on the precepts of social constructivism. Forty-nine semi-structured interviews were conducted: 24 with physicians employed as part of the More Doctors program, five with program medical supervisors, seven with secondary care physicians, twelve with primary care coordinators, and one federal administrator. The interviews occurred between March and September 2019. The transcripts of the interviews were submitted to thematic content analysis. RESULTS: The partnership between the Ministry of Health and local authorities was essential for the provision of doctors-especially foreign doctors, most from Cuba, to assist vulnerable population groups previously without access to the health system. There was a notable presence of doctors with experience working with socioeconomically disadvantaged populations, which was important for gaining a better understanding of the effects of the endemic urban violence in the region. The incentives and other institutional support, such as enhanced salaries, training, and housing, transportation, and food allowances, were factors that helped provide a satisfactory working environment. However, the poor state of the infrastructure at some of the primary care units and limitations of the health service as a whole were factors that hampered the provision of comprehensive care, constituting a cause of dissatisfaction. CONCLUSIONS: More Doctors introduced a range of novel strategies that helped ensure a supply of primary care doctors in vulnerable and peri-urban parts of Greater Brasilia. The inclusion of foreign doctors, most from Cuba, was crucial for the success of the health services provided for the local communities, who subsist in violent and socioeconomically deprived urban areas. However, it became clear that barriers from within the health service itself hampered the physicians' capacity to provide a satisfactory service. As such, what is needed for primary care to be effective is not just the recruitment, training, and deployment of doctors, but also investment in the organization of the whole health system.

Inequalities in the prevalence of major depressive disorder in Brazilian slum populations: a cross-sectional analysis.

AIMS: The mental health of slum residents is under-researched globally, and depression is a significant source of worldwide morbidity. Brazil's large slum-dwelling population is often considered part of a general urban-poor demographic. This study aims to identify the prevalence and distribution of depression in Brazil and compare mental health inequalities between slum and non-slum populations. METHODS: Data were obtained from Brazil's 2019 National Health Survey. Slum residence was defined based on the UN-Habitat definition for slums and estimated from survey responses. Doctor-diagnosed depression, Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9)-screened depression and presence of undiagnosed depression (PHQ-9-screened depression in the absence of a doctor's diagnosis) were analysed as primary outcomes, alongside depressive symptom severity as a secondary outcome. Prevalence estimates for all outcomes were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to investigate the association of socioeconomic characteristics, including slum residence, with primary outcomes. Depressive symptom severity was analysed using generalised ordinal logistic regression. RESULTS: Nationally, the prevalence of doctor diagnosed, PHQ-9 screened and undiagnosed depression were 9.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 9.5-10.3), 10.8% (95% CI: 10.4-11.2) and 6.9% (95% CI: 6.6-7.2), respectively. Slum residents exhibited lower levels of doctor-diagnosed depression than non-slum urban residents (8.6%; 95% CI: 7.9-9.3 v. 10.7%; 95% CI: 10.2-11.2), while reporting similar levels of PHQ-9-screened depression (11.3%; 95% CI: 10.4-12.1 v. 11.3%; 95% CI: 10.8-11.8). In adjusted regression models, slum residence was associated with a lower likelihood of doctor diagnosed (adjusted odds ratio (adjusted OR): 0.87; 95% CI: 0.77-0.97) and PHQ-9-screened depression (adjusted OR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.78-0.97). Slum residents showed a greater likelihood of reporting less severe depressive symptoms. There were significant ethnic/racial disparities in the likelihood of reporting doctor-diagnosed depression. Black individuals were less likely to report doctor-diagnosed depression (adjusted OR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.57-0.75) than white individuals. A similar pattern was observed in Mixed Black (adjusted OR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.66-0.79) and other (adjusted OR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.45-0.88) ethnic/racial groups. Slum residents self-reporting a diagnosis of one or more chronic non-communicable diseases had greater odds of exhibiting all three primary depression outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial inequalities characterise the distribution of depression in Brazil including in slum settings. People living in slums may have lower diagnosed rates of depression than non-slum urban residents. Understanding the mechanisms behind the discrepancy in depression diagnosis between slum and non-slum populations is important to inform health policy in Brazil, including in addressing potential gaps in access to mental healthcare.

Racial and socioeconomic disparities in multimorbidity and associated healthcare utilisation and outcomes in Brazil: a cross-sectional analysis of three million individuals.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is limited on racial/ethnic group disparities in multimorbidity and associated health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries hampering effective policies and clinical interventions to address health inequalities. METHODS: This study assessed race/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in the prevalence of multimorbidity and associated healthcare utilisation, costs and death in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A cross-sectional analysis was carried out of 3,027,335 individuals registered with primary healthcare (PHC) services. Records included linked data to hospitalisation, mortality, and welfare-claimant (Bolsa Família) records between 1 Jan 2012 and 31 Dec 2016. Logistic and Poisson regression models were carried out to assess the likelihood of multimorbidity (two or more diagnoses out of 53 chronic conditions), PHC use, hospital admissions and mortality from any cause. Interactions were used to assess disparities. RESULTS: In total 13,509,633 healthcare visits were analysed identifying 389,829 multimorbid individuals (13%). In adjusted regression models, multimorbidity was associated with lower education (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 1.26; 95%CI: 1.23,1.29; compared to higher education), Bolsa Família receipt (AOR: 1.14; 95%CI: 1.13,1.15; compared to non-recipients); and black race/ethnicity (AOR: 1.05; 95%CI: 1.03,1.06; compared to white). Multimorbidity was associated with more hospitalisations (Adjusted Rate Ratio (ARR): 2.75; 95%CI: 2.69,2.81), more PHC visits (ARR: 3.46; 95%CI: 3.44,3.47), and higher likelihood of death (AOR: 1.33; 95%CI: 1.29,1.36). These associations were greater for multimorbid individuals with lower educational attainment (five year probability of death 1.67% (95%CI: 1.61,1.74%) compared to 1.13% (95%CI: 1.02,1.23%) for higher education), individuals of black race/ethnicity (1.48% (95%CI: 1.41,1.55%) compared to 1.35% (95%CI: 1.31,1.40%) for white) and individuals in receipt of welfare (1.89% (95%CI: 1.77,2.00%) compared to 1.35% (95%CI: 1.31,1.38%) for non-recipients). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of multimorbidity and associated hospital admissions and mortality are greater in individuals with black race/ethnicity and other deprived socioeconomic groups in Rio de Janeiro. Interventions to better prevent and manage multimorbidity and underlying disparities in low- and middle-income country settings are needed.

The impacts of health systems financing fragmentation in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: Health systems are often fragmented in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This can increase inefficiencies and restrict progress towards universal health coverage. The objective of the systematic review described in this protocol will be to evaluate and synthesize the evidence concerning the impacts of health systems financing fragmentation in LMICs. METHODS: Literature searches will be conducted in multiple electronic databases, from their inception onwards, including MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, CINAHL, Scopus, ScienceDirect, Scielo, Cochrane Library, EconLit, and JSTOR. Gray literature will be also targeted through searching OpenSIGLE, Google Scholar, and institutional websites (e.g., HMIC, The World Bank, WHO, PAHO, OECD). The search strings will include keywords related to LMICs, health system financing fragmentation, and health system goals. Experimental, quasi-experimental, and observational studies conducted in LMICs and examining health financing fragmentation across any relevant metric (e.g., the presence of different health funders/insurers, risk pooling mechanisms, eligibility categories, benefits packages, premiums) will be included. Studies will be eligible if they compare financing fragmentation in alternative settings or at least two-time points. The primary outcomes will be health system-related goals such as health outcomes (e.g., mortality, morbidity, patient-reported outcome measures) and indicators of access, services utilization, equity, and financial risk protection. Additional outcomes will include intermediate health system objectives (e.g., indicators of efficiency and quality). Two reviewers will independently screen all citations, abstract data, and full-text articles. Potential conflicts will be resolved through discussion and, when necessary, resolved by a third reviewer. The methodological quality (or risk of bias) of selected studies will be appraised using established checklists. Data extraction categories will include the studies' objective and design, the fragmentation measurement and domains, and health outcomes linked to the fragmentation. A narrative synthesis will be used to describe the results and characteristics of all included studies and to explore relationships and findings both within and between the studies. DISCUSSION: Evidence on the impacts of health system fragmentation in LMICs is key for identifying evidence gaps and priority areas for intervention. This knowledge will be valuable to health system policymakers aiming to strengthen health systems in LMICs. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020201467.

The quality of alternative models of primary health care and morbidity and mortality in Brazil: a national longitudinal analysis.

Background: Evidence is limited on health benefits from quality improvement of primary healthcare (PHC) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study investigated whether increasing PHC quality in Brazil with highly-skilled health professionals and integrated community health workers (CHWs) was associated with reductions in hospitalizations and mortality beyond benefits derived from increasing access. Methods: Annual municipal-level data for 5,411 municipalities between 2000 and 2014 were analysed using fixed effects panel regressions. PHC quality was measured as: i) the proportion of consultations provided by highly-skilled health professionals (doctors and nurses); and ii) the proportion of visits provided by CHWs from multidisciplinary PHC teams. Models assessed associations between PHC quality and hospitalization and mortality from diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), tuberculosis, leprosy, perinatal and maternal causes, and adjusted for PHC access, utilisation, presence of secondary care services, and socioeconomic factors. Findings: A one percentage point increase in the proportion of consultations provided by highly-skilled health professionals was associated with 0•019 fewer deaths from diabetes per 100,000 population (95%CI: -0•034, -0•003; p-value: 0.0167) and 0•029 fewer hospitalizations per 100,000 from leprosy (95%CI: -0•055, -0•002; p-value: 0.0321). A one percentage point increase in the proportion of care provided by CHWs from multidisciplinary PHC teams was associated with 0•025 fewer deaths from CVD per 100,000 (95%CI: -0•050, -0•001; p-value: 0.0442) and 0•148 fewer maternal hospital admissions per 100,000 (95%CI: -0•286, -0•010; p-value: 0.0356). No significant associations were found for the other twenty pairs of exposures and outcomes analysed. Interpretation: Investing in higher-quality PHC models with highly-skilled health professionals and integrated CHWs can deliver reductions in mortality and hospitalizations in LMICs. Funding: None.

Primary healthcare expansion and mortality in Brazil's urban poor: A cohort analysis of 1.2 million adults.

BACKGROUND: Expanding delivery of primary healthcare to urban poor populations is a priority in many low- and middle-income countries. This remains a key challenge in Brazil despite expansion of the country's internationally recognized Family Health Strategy (FHS) over the past two decades. This study evaluates the impact of an ambitious program to rapidly expand FHS coverage in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, since 2008. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A cohort of 1,241,351 low-income adults (observed January 2010-December 2016; total person-years 6,498,607) with linked FHS utilization and mortality records was analyzed using flexible parametric survival models. Time-to-death from all-causes and selected causes were estimated for FHS users and nonusers. Models employed inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment (IPTW-RA). The cohort was 61% female (751,895) and had a mean age of 36 years (standard deviation 16.4). Only 18,721 individuals (1.5%) had higher education, whereas 102,899 (8%) had no formal education. Two thirds of individuals (827,250; 67%) were in receipt of conditional cash transfers (Bolsa Família). A total of 34,091 deaths were analyzed, of which 8,765 (26%) were due to cardiovascular disease; 5,777 (17%) were due to neoplasms; 5,683 (17%) were due to external causes; 3,152 (9%) were due to respiratory diseases; and 3,115 (9%) were due to infectious and parasitic diseases. One third of the cohort (467,155; 37.6%) used FHS services. In IPTW-RA survival analysis, an average FHS user had a 44% lower hazard of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.56, 95% CI 0.54-0.59, p < 0.001) and a 5-year risk reduction of 8.3 per 1,000 (95% CI 7.8-8.9, p < 0.001) compared with a non-FHS user. There were greater reductions in the risk of death for FHS users who were black (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.46-0.54, p < 0.001) or pardo (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60, p < 0.001) compared with white (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.56-0.63, p < 0.001); had lower educational attainment (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.46-0.55, p < 0.001) for those with no education compared to no significant association for those with higher education (p = 0.758); or were in receipt of conditional cash transfers (Bolsa Família) (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.49-0.54, p < 0.001) compared with nonrecipients (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.60-0.67, p < 0.001). Key limitations in this study are potential unobserved confounding through selection into the program and linkage errors, although analytical approaches have minimized the potential for bias. CONCLUSIONS: FHS utilization in urban poor populations in Brazil was associated with a lower risk of death, with greater reductions among more deprived race/ethnic and socioeconomic groups. Increased investment in primary healthcare is likely to improve health and reduce health inequalities in urban poor populations globally.

Effect of economic recession and impact of health and social protection expenditures on adult mortality: a longitudinal analysis of 5565 Brazilian municipalities.

BACKGROUND: Economic recession might worsen health in low-income and middle-income countries with precarious job markets and weak social protection systems. Between 2014-16, a major economic crisis occurred in Brazil. We aimed to assess the association between economic recession and adult mortality in Brazil and to ascertain whether health and social welfare programmes in the country had a protective effect against the negative impact of this recession. METHODS: In this longitudinal analysis, we obtained data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics, the Ministry of Social Development and Fight Against Hunger, and the Information System for the Public Budget in Health to assess changes in state unemployment level and mortality among adults (aged ≥15 years) in Brazil between 2012 and 2017. Outcomes were municipal all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for all adults and across population subgroups stratified by age, sex, and race. We used fixed-effect panel regression models with quarterly timepoints to assess the association between recession and changes in mortality. Mortality and unemployment rates were detrended using Hodrick-Prescott filters to assess cyclical variation and control for underlying trends. We tested interactions between unemployment and terciles of municipal social protection and health-care expenditure to assess whether the relationship between unemployment and mortality varied. FINDINGS: Between 2012 and 2017, 7 069 242 deaths were recorded among adults (aged ≥15 years) in 5565 municipalities in Brazil. During this time period, the mean crude municipal adult mortality rate increased by 8·0% from 143·1 deaths per 100 000 in 2012 to 154·5 deaths per 100 000 in 2017. An increase in unemployment rate of 1 percentage-point was associated with a 0·50 increase per 100 000 population per rter (95% CI 0·09-0·91) in all-cause mortality, mainly due to cancer and cardiovascular disease. Between 2012 and 2017, higher unemployment accounted for 31 415 excess deaths (95% CI 29 698-33 132). All-cause mortality increased among black or mixed race (pardo) Brazilians (a 0·46 increase [95% CI 0·15-0·80]), men (0·67 [0·22-1·13]), and individuals aged 30-59 years (0·43 [0·16-0·69] per 1 percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate. No significant association was identified between unemployment and all-cause mortality for white Brazilian, women, adolescents (aged 15-29 years), or older and retired individuals (aged ≥60 years). In municipalities with high expenditure on health and social protection programmes, no significant increases in recession-related mortality were observed. INTERPRETATION: The Brazilian recession contributed to increases in mortality. However, health and social protection expenditure seemed to mitigate detrimental health effects, especially among vulnerable populations. This evidence provides support for stronger health and social protection systems globally. FUNDING: None.

The potential impact of austerity on attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals in Brazil.

In the recent decades, Brazil has outperformed comparable countries in its progress toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Many of these improvements have been driven by investments in health and social policies. In this article, we aim to identify potential impacts of austerity policies in Brazil on the chances of achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and its consequences for population health. Austerity's anticipated impacts are assessed by analysing the change in federal spending on different budget programmes from 2014 to 2017. We collected budget data made publicly available by the Senate. Among the selected 19 programmes, only 4 had their committed budgets increased, in real terms, between 2014 and 2017. The total amount of extra money committed to these four programmes in 2017, above that committed in 2014, was small (BR$9.7 billion). Of the 15 programmes that had budget cuts in the period from 2014 to 2017, the total decrease amounted to BR$60.2 billion (US$15.3 billion). In addition to the overall large budget reduction, it is noteworthy that the largest proportional reductions were in programmes targeted at more vulnerable populations. In conclusion, it seems clear that the current austerity policies in Brazil will probably damage the population's health and increase inequities, and that the possibility of meeting SDG targets is lower in 2018 than it was in 2015.