RESUMO
Despite evidence suggesting the utility of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) markers to stratify individuals with respect to nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) risk in NPC high-risk regions, no validated NPC risk prediction model exists. We aimed to validate an EBV-based NPC risk score in an endemic population undergoing screening for NPC. This prospective study was embedded within an ongoing NPC screening trial in southern China initiated in 2008, with 51 235 adult participants. We assessed the score's discriminatory ability (area under the receiver-operator-characteristics curve, AUC). A new model incorporating the EBV score, sex and family history was developed using logistic regression and internally validated using cross-validation. AUCs were compared. We also calculated absolute NPC risk combining the risk score with population incidence and competing mortality data. A total of 151 NPC cases were detected in 2008 to 2016. The EBV-based score was highly discriminating, with AUC = 0.95 (95% CI = 0.93-0.97). For 90% specificity, the score had 87.4% sensitivity (95% CI = 81.0-92.3%). As specificity increased from 90% to 99%, the positive predictive value increased from 2.4% (95% CI = 1.9-3.0%) to 12.5% (9.9-15.5%). Correspondingly, the number of positive tests per detected NPC case decreased from 272 (95% CI = 255-290) to 50 (41-59). Combining the score with other risk factors (sex, first-degree family history of NPC) did not improve AUC. Men aged 55 to 59 years with the highest risk profile had the highest 5-year absolute NPC risk of 6.5%. We externally validated the discriminatory accuracy of a previously developed EBV score in a high-risk population. Adding nonviral risk factors did not improve NPC prediction.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: The National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines recommend intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) as the primary curative treatment for newly diagnosed nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), but the radiation-related complications and relatively high medical costs remain a consequential burden for the patients. Endoscopic nasopharyngectomy (ENPG) was successfully applied in recurrent NPC with radiation free and relatively low medical costs. In this study, we examined whether ENPG could be an effective treatment for localized stage I NPC. METHODS: Ten newly diagnosed localized stage I NPC patients voluntarily received ENPG alone from June 2007 to September 2017 in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center. Simultaneously, the data of 329 stage I NPC patients treated with IMRT were collected and used as a reference cohort. The survival outcomes, quality of life (QOL), and medical costs between two groups were compared. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 59.0 months (95% CI 53.4-64.6), no death, locoregional recurrence, or distant metastasis was observed in the 10 patients treated with ENPG. The 5-year overall survival, local relapse-free survival, regional relapse-free survival, and distant metastasis-free survival among the ENPG-treated patients was similar to that among the IMRT-treated patients (100% vs. 99.1%, 100% vs. 97.7%, 100% vs. 99.0%, 100% vs. 97.4%, respectively, P > 0.05). In addition, compared with IMRT, ENPG was associated with decreased total medical costs ($ 4090.42 ± 1502.65 vs. $ 12620.88 ± 4242.65, P < 0.001) and improved QOL scores including dry mouth (3.3 ± 10.5 vs. 34.4 ± 25.8, P < 0.001) and sticky saliva (3.3 ± 10.5 vs. 32.6 ± 23.3, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: ENPG alone was associated with promising long-term survival outcomes, low medical costs, and satisfactory QOL and might therefore be an alternative strategy for treating newly diagnosed localized stage I NPC patients who refused radiotherapy. However, the application of ENPG should be prudent, and prospective clinical trials were needed to further verify the results.
