Intensive longitudinal assessment following index trauma to predict development of PTSD using machine learning.

There are significant challenges to identifying which individuals require intervention following exposure to trauma, and a need for strategies to identify and provide individuals at risk for developing PTSD with timely interventions. The present study seeks to identify a minimal set of trauma-related symptoms, assessed during the weeks following traumatic exposure, that can accurately predict PTSD. Participants were 2185 adults (Mean age=36.4 years; 64% women; 50% Black) presenting for emergency care following traumatic exposure. Participants received a 'flash survey' with 6-8 varying symptoms (from a pool of 26 trauma symptoms) several times per week for eight weeks following the trauma exposure (each symptom assessed ∼6 times). Features (mean, sd, last, worst, peak-end scores) from the repeatedly assessed symptoms were included as candidate variables in a CART machine learning analysis to develop a pragmatic predictive algorithm. PTSD (PCL-5 ≥38) was present for 669 (31%) participants at the 8-week follow-up. A classification tree with three splits, based on mean scores of nervousness, rehashing, and fatigue, predicted PTSD with an Area Under the Curve of 0.836. Findings suggest feasibility for a 3-item assessment protocol, delivered once per week, following traumatic exposure to assess and potentially facilitate follow-up care for those at risk.

The Cost of Universal Suicide Risk Screening for Adolescents in Emergency Departments.

Suicide is the second leading cause of death among adolescents. As nearly 20% of adolescents visit emergency departments (EDs) each year, EDs have an opportunity to identify previously unrecognized suicide risk. A novel Computerized Adaptive Screen for Suicidal Youth (CASSY) was shown in a multisite study to be predictive for suicide attempts within 3 months. This study uses site-specific data to estimate the cost of CASSY implementation with adolescents in general EDs. When used universally with all adolescents who are present and able to participate in the screening, the average cost was USD 5.77 per adolescent. For adolescents presenting with non-behavioral complaints, the average cost was USD 2.60 per adolescent. Costs were driven primarily by time and personnel required for the further evaluation of suicide risk for those screening positive. Thus, universal screening using the CASSY, at very low costs relative to the cost of an ED visit, can facilitate services needed for at-risk adolescents.

Characteristics of Veteran and Civilian Suicide Decedents: A Sex-Stratified Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Few studies have examined characteristics distinguishing Veteran and civilian suicide decedents. An understanding of unique risk factors for Veteran suicide is critical to develop effective preventive interventions. This is particularly imperative for female Veterans, who have near double the suicide mortality rate of same-aged female civilians. The objectives of this study were to examine whether Veteran and civilian suicide decedents differed on risk factors and suicide-event characteristics, and to determine whether predictors changed based on sex. METHODS: Data from 116,515 suicides collected by the National Violent Death Reporting System in 27 states between 2003 and 2015 were analyzed in 2018 in sex-stratified analyses. Logistic regression models examined population differences in risk factors and suicide-event characteristics. RESULTS: Relative to male civilians, male Veterans were more likely to have a contributing physical health problem (AOR=1.10, 95% CI=1.06, 1.14) and to use a firearm for their suicide (AOR=1.41, 95% CI=1.36, 1.47); they were less likely to have substance use problems (AOR=0.70, 95% CI=0.66, 0.75), depressed mood (AOR=0.93, 95% CI=0.90, 0.97), or financial problems (AOR=0.91, 95% CI=0.86, 0.97). Female Veterans were more likely to use a firearm for their suicide (AOR=1.39, 95% CI=1.19, 1.63) relative to female civilians. CONCLUSIONS: Firearm use as a suicide method was a key distinguishing feature of Veteran suicide. Means restriction and firearm safety are pertinent to preventing Veteran suicide. Given low utilization of mental health care and frequent presence of physical health problems in this population, safe storage messages may have a greater preventive impact if delivered in primary care or other nonpsychiatric settings.

Self-reported barriers to professional help seeking among college students at elevated risk for suicide.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to describe self-reported barriers to professional help seeking among college students who are at elevated suicide risk and determine if these barriers vary by demographic and clinical characteristics. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were 165 non-treatment seekers recruited as part of a Web-based treatment linkage intervention for college students at elevated suicide risk (from September 2010 through December 2011). METHODS: Data were collected using Web-based questionnaires. Two coders coded students' responses to an open-ended question about reasons for not seeking professional help. RESULTS: The most commonly reported barriers included perception that treatment is not needed (66%), lack of time (26.8%), and preference for self-management (18%). Stigma was mentioned by only 12% of students. There were notable differences based on gender, race, and severity of depression and alcohol abuse. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts aimed at reaching students at elevated risk for suicidal behavior should be particularly sensitive to these commonly described barriers.