Temporal Trends of Asthma Among Children in the Western Pacific Region From 1990 to 2045: Longitudinal Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Asthma has become one of the most common chronic conditions worldwide, especially among children. Recent findings show that the prevalence of childhood asthma has increased by 12.6% over the past 30 years, with >262 million people currently affected globally. The reasons for the growing asthma epidemic remain complex and multifactorial. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to provide an up-to-date analysis of the changing global and regional asthma prevalence, mortality, disability, and risk factors among children aged <20 years by leveraging the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Findings from this study can help inform priority areas for intervention to alleviate the rising burden of childhood asthma globally. METHODS: The study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, concentrating on children aged 0 to 14 years with asthma. We conducted an in-depth analysis of asthma, including its age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), across diverse demographics, such as region, age, sex, and sociodemographic index, spanning 1990 to 2019. We also projected the future burden of the disease. RESULTS: Overall, in the Western Pacific Region, the age-standardized prevalence rate of asthma among children increased slightly, from 3898.4 cases per 100,000 people in 1990 to 3924 per 100,000 in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate of asthma also increased slightly, from 979.2 to 994.9 per 100,000. In contrast, the age-standardized death rate of asthma decreased from 0.9 to 0.4 per 100,000 and the age-standardized DALY rate decreased from 234.9 to 189.7 per 100,000. At the country level, Japan experienced a considerable decrease in the age-standardized prevalence rate of asthma among children, from 6669.1 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5071.5 per 100,000 in 2019. Regarding DALYs, Japan exhibited a notable reduction, from 300.6 to 207.6 per 100,000. Malaysia also experienced a DALY rate reduction, from 188.4 to 163.3 per 100,000 between 1990 and 2019. We project that the burden of disease in countries other than Japan and the Philippines will remain relatively stable up to 2045. CONCLUSIONS: The study indicates an increase in the prevalence and incidence of pediatric asthma, coupled with a decrease in mortality and DALYs in the Western Pacific Region between 1990 and 2019. These intricate phenomena appear to result from a combination of lifestyle shifts, environmental influences, and barriers to health care access. The findings highlight that nations such as Japan have achieved notable success in managing asthma. Overall, the study identified areas of improvement in view of persistent disease burden, underscoring the need for comprehensive collaborative efforts to mitigate the impact of pediatric asthma throughout the region.

The congenital birth defects burden in children younger than 14 years of age, 1990 - 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis of the global burden of disease study.

Background: This study aims to delineate the burden of congenital birth defects (CBDs) in children under 14 years of age from 1990 to 2019, using an age-period-cohort framework to analyse data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). Methods: Data on prevalence cases, age-standardised prevalence rates (ASPRs), death cases, and age-standardised death rates (ASDRs) of congenital birth defects (CBDs) from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from GBD 2019. Using this data set, we conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to examine patterns and trends in mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CBDs, while exploring correlations with age, time periods, and generational birth cohorts. Furthermore, to quantify the temporal trends, we calculated the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for these parameters. Results: The global prevalence of CBDs decreased from 1404.22 to 1301.66 per 100 000 with an EAPC of -0.18% from 1990 to 2019. CBD mortality decreased by 42.52% between 1990 and 2019, with the global age-standardised death rate declining from 49.72 to 25.58 per 100 000. The age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 4529.16 to 2393.61 per 100 000. Prevalence declined most notably among older children. The risk of CBDs reached its lowest during adolescence (10-14 years) across all regions. The most recent period (2015-2019) showed a reduced risk of prevalence compared to 2000-2004. Earlier birth cohorts displayed declining tendencies followed by slight increases in risk. Conclusions: This study demonstrates encouraging global reductions in the burden of CBDs among children over the past three decades. Prevalence, mortality, and DALYs attributable to CBDs have exhibited downward trajectories, although regional disparities remain. APC analysis provides valuable insights to inform prevention and management strategies for pediatric CBDs.