Quantitative risk assessment of typhoon storm surge for multi-risk sources.

Typhoon storm surge (TSS) is a complex marine disaster affected by multi-risk sources. Quantitative risk assessment is an important prerequisite for identifying risk areas and designing risk reduction strategies. This paper aims to propose a rapid, accurate, and comprehensive quantitative risk assessment method for TSS under multi-risk sources, including disaster occurrence probability and severity. First, identify the primary risk sources according to the disaster-causing mechanism of TSS. Then, based on the official public data from 1989 to 2020, the dependence structure among multi-risk sources is constructed using Copulas to calculate the probability of each superposition scenario. Meanwhile, build visual scenario databases employing Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques. Subsequently, the extent and depth of inundation are translated into economic risk and population risk using GIS and depth-damage functions. Finally, taking the "Mangkhut" as a case study, the method's feasibility and accuracy are verified. The results show that the primary risk sources of TSS are storm tide, astronomical tide and coastal waves. The Gumbel Copula is optimal, with OLS (ordinary least squares) and D of 0.0186 and 0.1831, respectively. The probability assessment under different superposition scenarios indicates that the greatest threat of TSS in Guangzhou comes from the storm tide and the astronomical tide. As for the "Mangkhut" case study in Jiangmen City, the assesses occurrence probability is 0.0355%, the accuracy of economic risk assessment (except mariculture) is 95.28%, and the accuracy of population risk assessment is 98.60%. Residences and the disaster-bearing bodies in 0-3 m inundation depth are most severely affected by TSS disasters. Measures such as locating residential and important buildings away from the shoreline (at least 10 km) and ground (above 3 m), formulating disaster emergency plans, and developing the forecast and prevention of storm tides and astronomical tides will help ensure the safety of residents' life and property. This paper provides an efficient and accurate method, which is of great significance for disaster control, sustainable development, and decision-making.

Risk assessment concerning the heavy metals in sediment around Taihu Lake, China.

The present study sought to determine the systematic pollution status of the heavy metals (HMs) found in the sediment around Taihu Lake, China. The concentrations and speciations of the HMs in the sediment were measured. The Ni and Cr concentrations exceeded the probable effect level (PEL), while the concentrations of the other HMs (except Hg) were between the threshold effect level and the PEL. The enrichment factor values for all HMs indicated slight enrichment. The geoaccumulation index revealed that the HMs represented light pollution, while the average contaminant factor value of the HMs indicated moderate pollution. The ecological risk factor value indicated a medium ecological risk, with Cd and Hg being associated with a high and considerable potential ecological risk, respectively. The ecological risk index indicated that the ecological risk posed by the HMs was high. The contamination degree revealed a moderate level of metal pollution, while the pollution load index indicated a heavy pollution level. The extractable proportion of the HMs (except for Cr and As) exceeded 50%. In the case of Cd, the exchangeable proportion was 51.11%, which indicated it to be extremely unstable. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Heavy metals (except for Cr and As) have a high potential ecological risk. All selected heavy metals implying varying degrees of instability. Cd was the most serious pollutant based on the Igeo, Cf and EF analyses.

Risk Assessment of Metals in Urban Soils from a Typical Industrial City, Suzhou, Eastern China.

Risk of metals in urban soils is less studied, compared to that in other types of soils, hindering accurate assessment of human exposure to metals. In this study, the concentrations of five metals (As, Cd, Cr, Pb, and Hg) were analyzed in 167 surface soil samples collected from Suzhou city and their potential ecological and human health risks were assessed. The mean concentrations of As, Cd, Pb, and Hg except Cr, were higher than the background values in Jiangsu Province. Metal concentrations varied among districts, where sites of high contamination showed a punctate distribution. Principal components and correlation analyses revealed that As, Pb, and Cd could originate from the same sources. The geo-accumulation (Igeo) and potential ecological risk indices (RI) were calculated and the relatively low values of Igeo (<0) and RI (<150) suggested generally low ecological risk. The noncarcinogenic risks of the metals were relatively low for Suzhou residents (i.e., average hazard index or HI: 0.1199 for adults and 0.5935 for children, <1), while the total carcinogenic risks (TCR) of Cr and As were acceptable (TCR in the range of 1.0 × 10-6 to 1.0 × 10-4). Children faced a higher threat than adults. Results of Monte-Carlo simulations were lower than those obtained from models using deterministic parameters. Of all the uncertain parameters, the ingestion rate and body weight were the most sensitive for adults and children, respectively, while As was an important factor for both. The results as well as the factors controlling risks of metals could help better understand the risks of metals in urban soils of industrial cities in China.

Assessment of health status in patients with newly diagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

SUBJECT: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common disease worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the health status of patients with newly diagnosed COPD. METHODS: A total of 45 healthy controls and 218 patients with newly diagnosed COPD were recruited. Pulmonary function test (PFT) values, COPD assessment test (CAT) scores, exacerbation history, and demographics were recorded. RESULTS: Forced expiratory volume in 1 s percent (FEV1%) predicted was significantly decreased and the CAT score was significantly increased in patients with COPD compared with healthy controls (P <0.001). Among the COPD patients, the most commonly reported respiratory symptoms were cough (86.7%), sputum (80.3%), and dyspnea (45%). A total of 86.2% patients were in the moderate or severe stage (spirometric classification) of COPD, and 71.5% were in Group C or Group D (combined assessment). A total of 33.9% of the patients had 2 or more exacerbations in the previous year. Nearly half of the patients (45.4%) had a high CAT score of ≥ 10. Patients with a history of more exacerbations had a higher CAT score. CONCLUSIONS: Most COPD patients were symptomatic and appeared to have moderate to severe airflow limitation or a high risk of exacerbation before definitely being diagnosed with COPD using the PFT.

[Assessment and application of a molecular diagnostic method on the detection of four types of diarrheagenic Escherichia coli].

OBJECTIVE: To establish and evaluate a molecular diagnostic method for routine monitoring of four types of diarrheagenic Escherichia (E.) coli (DEC)and to study the distribution of four types of DEC isolated from diarrheal patients in Shanghai. METHODS: DEC-PCR standard operation procedure(SOP)had been developed for DEC detection and isolation, using the Statens Serum Institute (SSI) DEC PCR kits with multiplex PCR technique after verification tests on reference strains. Diarrhea specimens from 3 clinical hospitals in Shanghai were tested from June to September, 2012. RESULTS: Specificity of the PCR kit was 100% by verification on the 26 DEC reference strains. A total number of 218 DEC isolates, including 181 fermented lactose and 37 unfermented lactose were identified from the 1887 stool specimens of diarrhea patients, with positive rate as 11.6%. The most common pathogen(54.1%, 118/218)was enteropathogenic E. coli(EPEC), followed by enterotoxigenic E. coli(ETEC, 41.3%, 90/218), enteroinvasive E. coli (EIEC, 4.1%, 9/ 218) and Shigatoxin-producing E. coli(STEC, 0.5%, 1/218)in addition to 18 Shigella isolates. ETEC dominated in diarrhea patients with foreign residency, as well as 1/3 were perinatal stage of neonatal ETEC of all diarrhea cases under the age of 5, while EPEC dominated in the Chinese diarrhea patients especially among young kids under the age of 2. CONCLUSION: Data was reliable after assessment on this molecular diagnostics and seperation procedures used for the routine monitoring on four types of DEC, while the diagnosis and reference ability of DEC regarding the laboratories net-working on food-borne pathogens need to be built up and improved.