Early-Life Enteric Pathogen Exposure, Socioeconomic Status, and School-Age Cognitive Outcomes.

Early-life experiences of enteric infections and diarrheal illness are common in low-resource settings and are hypothesized to affect child development. However, longer-term associations of enteric infections with school-age cognitive outcomes are difficult to estimate due to lack of long-term studies. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between enteropathogen exposure in the first 2 years of life with school-age cognitive skills in a cohort of children followed from birth until 6 to 8 years in low-resource settings in Brazil, Tanzania, and South Africa. The study included participants from three sites from the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health Study who were enrolled just after birth and followed for enteric infections, diarrheal illness, and cognitive development until 2 years of age. When the children were school-age, further data were collected on reasoning skills and semantic/phonemic fluency. We estimated associations between the burden of specific enteric pathogens and etiology-specific diarrhea from 0 to 2 years with cognitive test scores at 6 to 8 years using linear regression and adjusting for confounding variables. In this study, children who carried more enteric pathogens in the first 2 years of life showed overall decreases in school-age cognitive abilities, particularly children who carried protozoa, although this was not statistically significant in this sample. Socioeconomic factors such as maternal education and income were more closely associated with school-age cognitive abilities. Early-life enteric pathogens may have a small, lasting influence on school-age cognitive outcomes, although other socioeconomic factors likely contribute more significantly.

Assessment of Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and Risk Factors Associated With COVID-19 Infection Among Outpatients in Virginia.

Importance: Data from seroepidemiologic surveys measuring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) exposure in diverse communities and ascertaining risk factors associated with infection are important to guide future prevention strategies. Objective: To assess the prevalence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection across Virginia and the risk factors associated with infection after the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this statewide cross-sectional surveillance study, 4675 adult outpatients presenting for health care not associated with COVID-19 in Virginia between June 1 and August 14, 2020, were recruited to participate in a questionnaire and receive venipuncture to assess SARS-CoV-2 serology. Eligibility was stratified to meet age, race, and ethnicity quotas that matched regional demographic profiles. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity, as measured by the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G assay. Results: Among 4675 adult outpatients (mean [SD] age, 48.8 [16.9] years; 3119 women [66.7%]; 3098 White [66.3%] and 4279 non-Hispanic [91.5%] individuals) presenting for non-COVID-19-associated health care across Virginia, the weighted seroprevalence was 2.4% (95% CI, 1.8%-3.1%) and ranged from 0% to 20% by zip code. Seroprevalence was notably higher among participants who were Hispanic (10.2%; 95% CI, 6.1%-14.3%), residing in the northern region (4.4%; 95% CI, 2.8%-6.1%), aged 40 to 49 years (4.4%; 95% CI, 1.8%-7.1%), and uninsured (5.9%; 95% CI, 1.5%-10.3%). Higher seroprevalence was associated with Hispanic ethnicity (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.56; 95% CI, 1.76-7.21), residence in a multifamily unit (aOR, 2.55; 95% CI, 1.25-5.22), and contact with an individual with confirmed COVID-19 infection (aOR, 4.33; 95% CI, 1.77-10.58). The sensitivity of serology results was 94% (95% CI, 70%-100%) among those who reported receiving a previous polymerase chain reaction test for COVID-19 infection. Among 101 participants with seropositive results, 67 individuals (66.3%) were estimated to have asymptomatic infection. These data suggested a total estimated COVID-19 burden that was 2.8-fold higher than that ascertained by PCR-positive case counts. Conclusions and Relevance: This large statewide serologic study estimated that 2.4% of adults in Virginia had exposure to SARS-CoV-2, which was 2.8-fold higher than confirmed case counts. Hispanic ethnicity, residence in a multifamily unit, and contact with an individual with confirmed COVID-19 infection were significant risk factors associated with exposure. Most infections were asymptomatic. As of August 2020, the population in Virginia remained largely immunologically naive to the virus.

Ethionamide Population Pharmacokinetic Model and Target Attainment in Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis.

Ethionamide (ETA), an isonicotinic acid derivative, is part of the multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) regimen. The current guidelines have deprioritized ETA because it is potentially less effective than other agents. Our aim was to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model and simulate ETA dosing regimens in order to assess target attainment. This study included subjects from four different sites, including healthy volunteers and patients with MDR-TB. The TB centers included were two in the United States and one in Bangladesh. Patients who received ETA and had at least one drug concentration reported were included. The population PK model was developed, regimens with a total of 1,000 to 2,250 mg daily were simulated, and target attainment using published MICs and targets of 1.0-log kill and resistance suppression was assessed with the Pmetrics R package. We included 1,167 ethionamide concentrations from 94 subjects. The final population model was a one-compartment model with first-order elimination and absorption with a lag time. The mean (standard deviation [SD]) final population parameter estimates were as follows: absorption rate constant, 1.02 (1.11) h-1; elimination rate constant, 0.69 (0.46) h-1; volume of distribution, 104.16 (59.87) liters; lag time, 0.43 (0.32) h. A total daily dose of 1,500 mg or more was needed for ≥90% attainment of the 1.0-log kill target at a MIC of 1 mg/liter, and 2,250 mg/day led to 80% attainment of the resistance suppression target at a MIC of 0.5 mg/liter. In conclusion, we developed a population PK model and assessed target attainment for different ETA regimens. Patients may not be able to tolerate the doses needed to achieve the predefined targets supporting the current recommendations for ETA deprioritization.

Diarrhoeal disease and subsequent risk of death in infants and children residing in low-income and middle-income countries: analysis of the GEMS case-control study and 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study.

BACKGROUND: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) was a 3-year case-control study that measured the burden, aetiology, and consequences of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea (MSD) in children aged 0-59 months. GEMS-1A, a 12-month follow-on study, comprised two parallel case-control studies, one assessing MSD and the other less-severe diarrhoea (LSD). In this report, we analyse the risk of death with each diarrhoea type and the specific pathogens associated with fatal outcomes. METHODS: GEMS was a prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study done at seven sites in Africa and Asia. Children aged 0-59 months with MSD seeking care at sentinel health centres were recruited along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. In the 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study, children with LSD and matched controls, in addition to children with MSD and matched controls, were recruited at six of the seven sites; only cases of MSD and controls were enrolled at the seventh site. We compared risk of death during the period between enrolment and one follow-up household visit done about 60 days later (range 50-90 days) in children with MSD and LSD and in their respective controls. Approximately 50 pathogens were detected using, as appropriate, classic bacteriology, immunoassays, gel-based PCR and reverse transcriptase PCR, and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). Specimens from a subset of GEMS cases and controls were also tested by a TaqMan Array Card that compartmentalised probe-based qPCR for 32 enteropathogens. FINDINGS: 223 (2·0%) of 11 108 children with MSD and 43 (0·3%) of 16 369 matched controls died between study enrolment and the follow-up visit at about 60 days (hazard ratio [HR] 8·16, 95% CI 5·69-11·68, p<0·0001). 12 (0·4%) of 2962 children with LSD and seven (0·2%) of 4074 matched controls died during the follow-up period (HR 2·78, 95% CI 0·95-8·11, p=0·061). Risk of death was lower in children with dysenteric MSD than in children with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0·20, 95% CI 0·05-0·87, p=0·032), and lower in children with LSD than in those with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0·29, 0·14-0·59, p=0·0006). In children younger than 24 months with MSD, infection with typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli encoding heat-stable toxin, enteroaggregative E coli, Shigella spp (non-dysentery cases), Aeromonas spp, Cryptosporidium spp, and Entamoeba histolytica increased risk of death. Of 61 deaths in children aged 12-59 months with non-dysenteric MSD, 31 occurred among 942 children qPCR-positive for Shigella spp and 30 deaths occurred in 1384 qPCR-negative children (HR 2·2, 95% CI 1·2-3·9, p=0·0090), showing that Shigella was strongly associated with increased risk of death. INTERPRETATION: Risk of death is increased following MSD and, to a lesser extent, LSD. Considering there are approximately three times more cases of LSD than MSD in the population, more deaths are expected among children with LSD than in those with MSD. Because the major attributable LSD-associated and MSD-associated pathogens are the same, implementing vaccines and rapid diagnosis and treatment interventions against these major pathogens are rational investments. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Longitudinal Assessment of Antibiotic Resistance in Fecal Escherichia coli in Tanzanian Children.

Antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections are a major public health problem, and children in low-resource settings represent a particularly high-risk group. Few data are available on the dynamics of and risk factors for gastrointestinal carriage of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in these vulnerable populations. In this study, we described the antibiotic susceptibility profiles of Escherichia coli isolated from stool specimens collected from children aged 6 to 60 months enrolled in a birth cohort study in Haydom, Tanzania. We estimated the association between sociodemographic risk factors, child illnesses, and antibiotic exposure and E. coli drug resistance. Carriage of antibiotic-resistant E. coli was common starting early in life and did not clearly increase with age. The majority of isolates were resistant to ampicillin (749/837; 89.5%), cefazolin (742/837; 88.6%), and cotrimoxazole (721/837; 86.1%). Resistance to amoxicillin/clavulanate (361/836; 43.2%), ampicillin/sulbactam (178/819; 21.7%), nalidixic acid (131/831; 15.8%), and azithromycin (115/837; 13.7%) was also seen. Only 1.8% (15/837) of the pooled E. coli isolates met the criteria for extended-spectrum beta-lactamase production. High antibiotic use (0.26 additional resistant antibiotic classes; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.47) and high income (0.28 additional resistant antibiotic classes; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.50) were associated with the carriage of antibiotic-resistant E. coli, whereas hospital birth, crowding in the home, improved drinking water and sanitation, and common childhood illnesses were not. In this setting, the carriage of antibiotic-resistant E. coli was common. Other than recent antibiotic exposure and high income, individual risk factors for the acquisition and carriage of resistance could not be identified, suggesting that population-level interventions are needed.

d-Cycloserine Pharmacokinetics/Pharmacodynamics, Susceptibility, and Dosing Implications in Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis: A Faustian Deal.

Background: d-cycloserine is used to treat multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Its efficacy, contribution in combination therapy, and best clinical dose are unclear, also data on the d-cycloserine minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) distributions is scant. Methods: We performed a systematic search to identify pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic studies performed with d-cycloserine. We then performed a combined exposure-effect and dose fractionation study of d-cycloserine in the hollow fiber system model of tuberculosis (HFS-TB). In parallel, we identified d-cycloserine MICs in 415 clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) isolates from patients. We utilized these results, including intracavitary concentrations, to identify the clinical dose that would be able to achieve or exceed target exposures in 10000 patients using Monte Carlo experiments (MCEs). Results: There were no published d-cycloserine pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics studies identified. Therefore, we performed new HFS-TB experiments. Cyloserine killed 6.3 log10 colony-forming units (CFU)/mL extracellular bacilli over 28 days. Efficacy was driven by the percentage of time concentration persisted above MIC (%TMIC), with 1.0 log10 CFU/mL kill achieved by %TMIC = 30% (target exposure). The tentative epidemiological cutoff value with the Sensititre MYCOTB assay was 64 mg/L. In MCEs, 750 mg twice daily achieved target exposure in lung cavities of 92% of patients whereas 500 mg twice daily achieved target exposure in 85% of patients with meningitis. The proposed MCE-derived clinical susceptibility breakpoint at the proposed doses was 64 mg/L. Conclusions: Cycloserine is cidal against Mtb. The susceptibility breakpoint is 64 mg/L. However, the doses likely to achieve the cidality in patients are high, and could be neurotoxic.

Morbidity and mortality due to shigella and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli diarrhoea: the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2016.

BACKGROUND: Shigella and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) are bacterial pathogens that are frequently associated with diarrhoeal disease, and are a significant cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study 2016 (GBD 2016) is a systematic, scientific effort to quantify the morbidity and mortality due to over 300 causes of death and disability. We aimed to analyse the global burden of shigella and ETEC diarrhoea according to age, sex, geography, and year from 1990 to 2016. METHODS: We modelled shigella and ETEC-related mortality using a Bayesian hierarchical modelling platform that evaluates a wide range of covariates and model types on the basis of vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We used a compartmental meta-regression tool to model the incidence of shigella and ETEC, which enforces an association between incidence, prevalence, and remission on the basis of scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the point estimates. FINDINGS: Shigella was the second leading cause of diarrhoeal mortality in 2016 among all ages, accounting for 212 438 deaths (95% UI 136 979-326 913) and about 13·2% (9·2-17·4) of all diarrhoea deaths. Shigella was responsible for 63 713 deaths (41 191-93 611) among children younger than 5 years and was frequently associated with diarrhoea across all adult age groups, increasing in elderly people, with broad geographical distribution. ETEC was the eighth leading cause of diarrhoea mortality in 2016 among all age groups, accounting for 51 186 deaths (26 757-83 064) and about 3·2% (1·8-4·7) of diarrhoea deaths. ETEC was responsible for about 4·2% (2·2-6·8) of diarrhoea deaths in children younger than 5 years. INTERPRETATION: The health burden of bacterial diarrhoeal pathogens is difficult to estimate. Despite existing prevention and treatment options, they remain a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Additional emphasis by public health officials is needed on a reduction in disease due to shigella and ETEC to reduce disease burden. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global disability-adjusted life-year estimates of long-term health burden and undernutrition attributable to diarrhoeal diseases in children younger than 5 years.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoea is a leading cause of death and illness globally among children younger than 5 years. Mortality and short-term morbidity cause substantial burden of disease but probably underestimate the true effect of diarrhoea on population health. This underestimation is because diarrhoeal diseases can negatively affect early childhood growth, probably through enteric dysfunction and impaired uptake of macronutrients and micronutrients. We attempt to quantify the long-term sequelae associated with childhood growth impairment due to diarrhoea. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study framework and leveraged existing estimates of diarrhoea incidence, childhood undernutrition, and infectious disease burden to estimate the effect of diarrhoeal diseases on physical growth, including weight and height, and subsequent disease among children younger than 5 years. The burden of diarrhoea was measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite metric of mortality and morbidity. We hypothesised that diarrhoea is negatively associated with three common markers of growth: weight-for-age, weight-for-height, and height-for-age Z-scores. On the basis of these undernutrition exposures, we applied a counterfactual approach to quantify the relative risk of infectious disease (subsequent diarrhoea, lower respiratory infection, and measles) and protein energy malnutrition morbidity and mortality per day of diarrhoea and quantified the burden of diarrhoeal disease due to these outcomes caused by undernutrition. FINDINGS: Diarrhoea episodes are significantly associated with childhood growth faltering. We found that each day of diarrhoea was associated with height-for-age Z-score (-0·0033 [95% CI -0·0024 to -0·0041]; p=4·43 × 10-14), weight-for-age Z-score (-0·0077 [-0·0058 to -0·0097]; p=3·19â€ˆ× 10-15), and weight-for-height Z-score (-0·0096 [-0·0067 to -0·0125]; p=7·78 × 10-11). After addition of the DALYs due to the long-term sequelae as a consequence of undernutrition, the burden of diarrhoeal diseases increased by 39·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·0-46·6) and was responsible for 55 778 000 DALYs (95% UI 49 125 400-62 396 200) among children younger than 5 years in 2016. Among the 15 652 300 DALYs (95% UI 12 951 300-18 806 100) associated with undernutrition due to diarrhoeal episodes, more than 84·7% are due to increased risk of infectious disease, whereas the remaining 15·3% of long-term DALYs are due to increased prevalence of protein energy malnutrition. The burden of diarrhoea has decreased substantially since 1990, but progress has been greater in long-term (78·7% reduction [95% UI 69·3-85·5]) than in acute (70·4% reduction [95% UI 61·7-76·5]) DALYs. INTERPRETATION: Diarrhoea represents an even larger burden of disease than was estimated in the Global Burden of Disease Study. In order to adequately address the burden of its long-term sequelae, a renewed emphasis on controlling the risk of diarrhoea incidence may be required. This renewed effort can help further prevent the potential lifelong cost on child health, growth, and overall potential. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Use of quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to identify causes of diarrhoea in children: a reanalysis of the GEMS case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoea is the second leading cause of mortality in children worldwide, but establishing the cause can be complicated by diverse diagnostic approaches and varying test characteristics. We used quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to reassess causes of diarrhoea in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS). METHODS: GEMS was a study of moderate to severe diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years in Africa and Asia. We used quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to test for 32 enteropathogens in stool samples from cases and matched asymptomatic controls from GEMS, and compared pathogen-specific attributable incidences with those found with the original GEMS microbiological methods, including culture, EIA, and reverse-transcriptase PCR. We calculated revised pathogen-specific burdens of disease and assessed causes in individual children. FINDINGS: We analysed 5304 sample pairs. For most pathogens, incidence was greater with qPCR than with the original methods, particularly for adenovirus 40/41 (around five times), Shigella spp or enteroinvasive Escherichia coli (EIEC) and Campylobactor jejuni o C coli (around two times), and heat-stable enterotoxin-producing E coli ([ST-ETEC] around 1·5 times). The six most attributable pathogens became, in descending order, Shigella spp, rotavirus, adenovirus 40/41, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium spp, and Campylobacter spp. Pathogen-attributable diarrhoeal burden was 89·3% (95% CI 83·2-96·0) at the population level, compared with 51·5% (48·0-55·0) in the original GEMS analysis. The top six pathogens accounted for 77·8% (74·6-80·9) of all attributable diarrhoea. With use of model-derived quantitative cutoffs to assess individual diarrhoeal cases, 2254 (42·5%) of 5304 cases had one diarrhoea-associated pathogen detected and 2063 (38·9%) had two or more, with Shigella spp and rotavirus being the pathogens most strongly associated with diarrhoea in children with mixed infections. INTERPRETATION: A quantitative molecular diagnostic approach improved population-level and case-level characterisation of the causes of diarrhoea and indicated a high burden of disease associated with six pathogens, for which targeted treatment should be prioritised. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Epidemiology and Impact of Campylobacter Infection in Children in 8 Low-Resource Settings: Results From the MAL-ED Study.

BACKGROUND: Enteropathogen infections have been associated with enteric dysfunction and impaired growth in children in low-resource settings. In a multisite birth cohort study (MAL-ED), we describe the epidemiology and impact of Campylobacter infection in the first 2 years of life. METHODS: Children were actively followed up until 24 months of age. Diarrheal and nondiarrheal stool samples were collected and tested by enzyme immunoassay for Campylobacter Stool and blood samples were assayed for markers of intestinal permeability and inflammation. RESULTS: A total of 1892 children had 7601 diarrheal and 26 267 nondiarrheal stool samples tested for Campylobacter We describe a high prevalence of infection, with most children (n = 1606; 84.9%) having a Campylobacter-positive stool sample by 1 year of age. Factors associated with a reduced risk of Campylobacter detection included exclusive breastfeeding (risk ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, .47-.67), treatment of drinking water (0.76; 0.70-0.83), access to an improved latrine (0.89; 0.82-0.97), and recent macrolide antibiotic use (0.68; 0.63-0.74). A high Campylobacter burden was associated with a lower length-for-age Z score at 24 months (-1.82; 95% confidence interval, -1.94 to -1.70) compared with a low burden (-1.49; -1.60 to -1.38). This association was robust to confounders and consistent across sites. Campylobacter infection was also associated with increased intestinal permeability and intestinal and systemic inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: Campylobacter was prevalent across diverse settings and associated with growth shortfalls. Promotion of exclusive breastfeeding, drinking water treatment, improved latrines, and targeted antibiotic treatment may reduce the burden of Campylobacter infection and improve growth in children in these settings.

The Burden of Cryptosporidium Diarrheal Disease among Children < 24 Months of Age in Moderate/High Mortality Regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, Utilizing Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS).

BACKGROUND: The importance of Cryptosporidium as a pediatric enteropathogen in developing countries is recognized. METHODS: Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a 3-year, 7-site, case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and GEMS-1A (1-year study of MSD and less-severe diarrhea [LSD]) were analyzed. Stools from 12,110 MSD and 3,174 LSD cases among children aged <60 months and from 21,527 randomly-selected controls matched by age, sex and community were immunoassay-tested for Cryptosporidium. Species of a subset of Cryptosporidium-positive specimens were identified by PCR; GP60 sequencing identified anthroponotic C. parvum. Combined annual Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea incidences among children aged <24 months for African and Asian GEMS sites were extrapolated to sub-Saharan Africa and South Asian regions to estimate region-wide MSD and LSD burdens. Attributable and excess mortality due to Cryptosporidium diarrhea were estimated. FINDINGS: Cryptosporidium was significantly associated with MSD and LSD below age 24 months. Among Cryptosporidium-positive MSD cases, C. hominis was detected in 77.8% (95% CI, 73.0%-81.9%) and C. parvum in 9.9% (95% CI, 7.1%-13.6%); 92% of C. parvum tested were anthroponotic genotypes. Annual Cryptosporidium-attributable MSD incidence was 3.48 (95% CI, 2.27-4.67) and 3.18 (95% CI, 1.85-4.52) per 100 child-years in African and Asian infants, respectively, and 1.41 (95% CI, 0.73-2.08) and 1.36 (95% CI, 0.66-2.05) per 100 child-years in toddlers. Corresponding Cryptosporidium-attributable LSD incidences per 100 child-years were 2.52 (95% CI, 0.33-5.01) and 4.88 (95% CI, 0.82-8.92) in infants and 4.04 (95% CI, 0.56-7.51) and 4.71 (95% CI, 0.24-9.18) in toddlers. We estimate 2.9 and 4.7 million Cryptosporidium-attributable cases annually in children aged <24 months in the sub-Saharan Africa and India/Pakistan/Bangladesh/Nepal/Afghanistan regions, respectively, and ~202,000 Cryptosporidium-attributable deaths (regions combined). ~59,000 excess deaths occurred among Cryptosporidium-attributable diarrhea cases over expected if cases had been Cryptosporidium-negative. CONCLUSIONS: The enormous African/Asian Cryptosporidium disease burden warrants investments to develop vaccines, diagnostics and therapies.

The etiology, risk factors, and interactions of enteric infections and malnutrition and the consequences for child health and development study (MAL-ED): description of the Tanzanian site.

The Haydom, Tanzania, site (TZH) of The Etiology, Risk Factors and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) Study is in north-central Tanzania, 300 km from the nearest urban center. TZH is in a remote rural district where most of the population are agropastoralists and grow maize as the staple food. The average household size is 7. The average woman achieves a parity of 6 and has 1 child death. Socioeconomic indicators are poor, with essentially no household having access to electricity, piped water, or improved sanitary facilities (compared with 14%, 7%, and 12%, respectively, reported nationally). The Demographic Health Survey Tanzania 2004 indicated that the region had high rates of stunting and underweight (40% and 31% of children aged <5 years had a height-for-age z score and weight-for-age z score, respectively, of <-2 ) and an under-5 child mortality rate of 5.8%. Human immunodeficiency virus prevalence among 18-month-old children is <0.5%. TZH represents a remote rural African population with profound poverty and malnutrition, but a strong community-based research infrastructure.

Development and assessment of molecular diagnostic tests for 15 enteropathogens causing childhood diarrhoea: a multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood diarrhoea can be caused by many pathogens that are difficult to assay in the laboratory. Molecular diagnostic techniques provide a uniform method to detect and quantify candidate enteropathogens. We aimed to develop and assess molecular tests for identification of enteropathogens and their association with disease. METHODS: We developed and assessed molecular diagnostic tests for 15 enteropathogens across three platforms-PCR-Luminex, multiplex real-time PCR, and TaqMan array card-at five laboratories worldwide. We judged the analytical and clinical performance of these molecular techniques against comparator methods (bacterial culture, ELISA, and PCR) using 867 diarrhoeal and 619 non-diarrhoeal stool specimens. We also measured molecular quantities of pathogens to predict the association with diarrhoea, by univariate logistic regression analysis. FINDINGS: The molecular tests showed very good analytical and clinical performance at all five laboratories. Comparator methods had limited sensitivity compared with the molecular techniques (20-85% depending on the target) but good specificity (median 97·3%, IQR 96·5-98·9; mean 95·2%, SD 9·1). Positive samples by comparator methods usually had higher molecular quantities of pathogens than did negative samples, across almost all platforms and for most pathogens (p<0·05). The odds ratio for diarrhoea at a given quantity (measured by quantification cycle, Cq) showed that for most pathogens associated with diarrhoea-including Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli, Cryptosporidium spp, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, heat-stable enterotoxigenic E coli, rotavirus, Shigella spp and enteroinvasive E coli, and Vibrio cholerae-the strength of association with diarrhoea increased at higher pathogen loads. For example, Shigella spp at a Cq range of 15-20 had an odds ratio of 8·0 (p<0·0001), but at a Cq range of 25-30 the odds ratio fell to 1·7 (p=0·043). INTERPRETATION: Molecular diagnostic tests can be implemented successfully and with fidelity across laboratories around the world. In the case of diarrhoea, these techniques can detect pathogens with high sensitivity and ascribe diarrhoeal associations based on quantification, including in mixed infections, providing rich and unprecedented measurements of infectious causes. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Next Generation Molecular Diagnostics Project.

Molecular techniques in ecohealth research toolkit: facilitating estimation of aggregate gastroenteritis burden in an irrigated periurban landscape.

Assessment of microbial hazards associated with certain environmental matrices, livelihood strategies, and food handling practices are constrained by time-consuming conventional microbiological techniques that lead to health risk assessments of narrow geographic or time scope, often targeting very few pathogens. Health risk assessment based on one or few indicator organisms underestimates true disease burden due a number of coexisting causative pathogens. Here, we employed molecular techniques in a survey of Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia lamblia, Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shigella spp., Vibrio cholera, and Rotavirus A densities in canal water with respect to seasonality and spatial distribution of point-nonpoint pollution sources. Three irrigational canals stretching across nearly a 150-km(2) periurban landscape, traditionally used for agricultural irrigation but function as vital part of municipal wastewater stabilization in recent years, were investigated. Compiled stochastic data (pathogen concentration, susceptible populations) and literature-obtained deterministic data (pathogen dose-response model parameter values) were used in estimating waterborne gastroenteritis burden. Exposure scenarios include swimming or fishing, consuming canal water-irrigated vegetables, and ingesting or inhaling water aerosols while working in canal water-irrigated fields. Estimated annual gastroenteritis burden due individual pathogens among the sampling points was -10.6log(10) to -2.2log(10) DALYs. Aggregated annual gastroenteritis burden due all the target pathogens per sampling point was -3.1log(10) to -1.9log(10) DALYs, far exceeding WHO acceptable limit of -6.0log(10) DALYs. The present approach will facilitate the comprehensive collection of surface water microbiological baseline data and setting of benchmarks for interventions aimed at reducing microbial hazards in similar landscapes worldwide.

Infection risk assessment of diarrhea-related pathogens in a tropical canal network.

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of Cryptosporidium, Giardia and diarrhegenic Escherichia coli (DEC) infection was performed using Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the human health risks associated with the use of canal water for recreational purposes, unrestricted and restricted irrigation in a tropical peri-urban area. Three canals receiving municipal, agricultural, and, predominantly, industrial wastewater were investigated. Identification of pathogenic protozoans revealed the major presence of Cryptosporidium hominis and both assemblages A and B of Giardia lamblia. The highest individual infection risk estimate was found to be for Giardia in an exposure scenario involving the accidental ingestion of water when swimming during the rainy season, particularly in the most polluted section, downstream of a large wholesale market. The estimated annual risks of diarrheal disease due to infection by the protozoan parasites were up to 120-fold greater than the reported disease incidence in the vicinity of the studied district and the entire Thailand, suggesting a significant host resistance to disease beyond our model's assumptions. In contrast, annual disease risk estimates for DEC were in agreement with actual cases of diarrhea in the study area.