The Impact of the Medicaid Reimbursement Bump on Influenza Vaccination Rates Among US Teens: Evidence from the National Immunization Survey-Teen 2011-2020.

BACKGROUND: Many adolescents do not receive basic preventive care such as influenza vaccinations. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) temporarily increased Medicaid reimbursements for primary care services, including vaccine administration, in 2013 to 2014. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of reimbursement increases on influenza vaccination rates among adolescents with Medicaid. METHODS: This repeated cross-sectional study used a difference-in-difference approach to compare changes in annual influenza vaccination rates for 20,884 adolescents 13 to 17 years old covered by Medicaid with adequate provider-reported data in 18 states with larger extended (>$5, 2013 to 2019) versus larger temporary (2013 to 2014 only) versus smaller reimbursement changes. We used linear probability models with individual-level random effects, adjusting for state and individual characteristics and annual time trends to assess the impact of a Medicaid vaccine administration reimbursement increase on annual influenza vaccination. RESULTS: Mean Medicaid reimbursements for vaccine administration doubled from 2011 to 2013 to 2014 (eg, from $11 to $22 for CPT 90460). States with smaller reimbursement changes had higher mean reimbursements and higher adjusted vaccination rates at baseline (2011) compared with states with larger temporary and extended reimbursement changes. The reimbursement change was not associated with increases in influenza vaccination rates. DISCUSSION: Influenza vaccination rates were low among adolescents with Medicaid throughout the study period, particularly in states with lower Medicaid reimbursement levels before the ACA. CONCLUSION: That reimbursement increases were not associated with higher vaccination rates suggests additional efforts are needed to improve influenza vaccination rates in this population.

Associations Between Annual Medicare Part D Low-Income Subsidy Loss and Prescription Drug Spending and Use.

Importance: The Medicare Part D Low Income Subsidy (LIS) program provides millions of beneficiaries with drug plan premium and cost-sharing assistance. The extent to which LIS recipients experience subsidy losses with annual redetermination cycles and the resulting associations with prescription drug affordability and use are unknown. Objective: To examine how frequently annual LIS benefits are lost among Medicare Part D beneficiaries and how this is associated with prescription drug use and out-of-pocket costs. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study of Medicare Part D beneficiaries from 2007 to 2018, annual changes in LIS recipients among those automatically deemed eligible (eg, due to dual eligibility for Medicare and Medicaid) and nondeemed beneficiaries who must apply for LIS benefits were analyzed using Medicare enrollment and Part D event data. Subsidy losses were classified in 4 groups: temporary losses (<1 year); extended losses (≥1 year); subsidy reductions (change to partial LIS); and disenrollment from Medicare Part D after subsidy loss. Temporary losses could more likely represent subsidy losses among eligible beneficiaries. Multinomial logit models were used to examine associations between beneficiary characteristics and subsidy loss; linear regression models were used to compare changes in prescription drug cost and use in the months after subsidy losses vs before. Analyses were conducted between November 2022 and November 2023. Exposure: Subsidy loss at the beginning of each year among subsidy recipients in December of the prior year. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were out-of-pocket costs and prescription drug fills overall and for 4 classes: antidiabetes, antilipid, antidepressant, and antipsychotic drugs. Results: In 2008, 731 070 full LIS beneficiaries (17%) were not deemed automatically eligible (39% were aged <65 years; 59% were female). Nearly all beneficiaries deemed automatically eligible (≥99%) retained the subsidy annually from 2007 to 2018, compared with 78% to 84% of nondeemed beneficiaries. Among nondeemed beneficiaries, disabled individuals younger than 65 years and racial and ethnic minority groups were more likely to have temporary subsidy losses vs none. Temporary losses were associated with an average 700% increase in out-of-pocket drug costs (+$52.72/mo [95% CI, 52.52-52.92]) and 15% reductions in prescription fills (-0.58 fills/mo [95% CI, -0.59 to -0.57]) overall. Similar changes were found for antidiabetes, antilipid, antidepressant, and antipsychotic prescription drug classes. Beneficiaries who retained their subsidy had few changes. Conclusions and Relevance: The conclusions of this cohort study suggest that efforts to help eligible beneficiaries retain Medicare Part D subsidies could improve drug affordability, treatment adherence, and reduce disparities in medication access.

Classification Algorithm to Distinguish Between Type 1 and Type 2 Myocardial Infarction in Administrative Claims Data.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 myocardial infarction (T2MI) and type 1 myocardial infarction (T1MI) differ with respect to demographics, comorbidities, treatments, and clinical outcomes. Reliable quality and outcomes assessment depends on the ability to distinguish between T1MI and T2MI in administrative claims data. As such, we aimed to develop a classification algorithm to distinguish between T1MI and T2MI that could be applied to claims data. METHODS: Using data for beneficiaries in a Medicare accountable care organization contract in a large health care system in New England, we examined the distribution of MI diagnosis codes between 2018 to 2021 and the patterns of care and coding for beneficiaries with a hospital discharge diagnosis International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision code for T2MI, compared with those for T1MI. We then assessed the probability that each hospitalization was for a T2MI versus T1MI and examined care occurring in 2017 before the introduction of the T2MI code. RESULTS: After application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, 7759 hospitalizations for myocardial infarction remained (46.5% T1MI and 53.5% T2MI; mean age, 79±10.3 years; 47% female). In the classification algorithm, female gender (odds ratio, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.11-1.44]), Black race relative to White race (odds ratio, 2.48 [95% CI, 1.76-3.48]), and diagnoses of COVID-19 (odds ratio, 1.74 [95% CI, 1.11-2.71]) or hypertensive emergency (odds ratio, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.00-2.14]) were associated with higher odds of the hospitalization being for T2MI versus T1MI. When applied to the testing sample, the C-statistic of the full model was 0.83. Comparison of classified T2MI and observed T2MI suggest the possibility of substantial misclassification both before and after the T2MI code. CONCLUSIONS: A simple classification algorithm appears to be able to differentiate between hospitalizations for T1MI and T2MI before and after the T2MI code was introduced. This could facilitate more accurate longitudinal assessments of acute myocardial infarction quality and outcomes.

The Affordability Of Individual-Market Health Insurance In California Under The American Rescue Plan Act, 2021.

In 2021 the American Rescue Plan Act increased premium subsidies for people purchasing insurance from the Affordable Care Act Marketplaces and provided zero-premium Marketplace plans that covered 94 percent of medical care costs (silver 94 plans) to recipients of unemployment compensation. Using data on adult enrollees in on- and off-Marketplace individual plans in California in 2021, we found that 41 percent reported incomes at or below 400 percent of the federal poverty level and that 39 percent reported living in households receiving unemployment compensation. Overall, 72 percent of enrollees reported having no difficulty paying premiums, and 76 percent reported that out-of-pocket expenses did not affect their seeking of medical care. The majority of enrollees eligible for plans with cost-sharing subsidies were enrolled in Marketplace silver plans (56-58 percent). Many of these enrollees, however, may have missed opportunities for premium or cost-sharing subsidies: 6-8 percent enrolled in off-Marketplace plans and were more likely to have difficulty paying premiums than those in Marketplace silver plans, and more than one-quarter enrolled in Marketplace bronze plans and were more likely to delay care because of cost than those in Marketplace silver plans. In the coming era of expanded Marketplace subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, helping consumers identify high-value and subsidy-eligible plans could mitigate remaining affordability problems.

Tacking upwind: reducing spending among high-risk commercially insured patients.

OBJECTIVES: The study examined a commercial accountable care organization (ACO) population and then assessed the impact of an integrated care management program on medical spending and clinical event rates. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of high-risk individuals (n = 487) in a population of 365,413 individuals aged 18 to 64 years within the Mass General Brigham health system who were part of commercial ACO contracts with 3 large insurers between 2015 and 2019. METHODS: Using medical spending claims and other enrollment data, the study assessed the demographic and clinical characteristics, medical spending, and clinical event rates of patients in the ACO and its high-risk care management program. The study then examined the impact of the program using a staggered difference-in-difference design with individual-level fixed effects and compared outcomes of those who had entered the program with those of similar patients who had not entered. RESULTS: The commercially insured ACO population was healthy on average but included several hundred high-risk patients (n = 487). After adjustment, patients within the ACO's integrated care management program for high-risk patients had lower monthly medical spending (by $1361 per person per month) as well as lower emergency department visit and hospitalization rates compared with similar patients who had yet to start the program. Accounting for early ACO departure decreased the magnitude of the program effects as expected. CONCLUSIONS: Commercial ACO populations may be healthy on average but still include some high-risk patients. Identifying which patients might benefit from more intensive care management could be critical for reaping the potential savings.

Outcomes for patients with dementia undergoing emergency and elective colorectal surgery: A large multi-institutional comparative cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (ADRD) may result in poor surgical outcomes. The current study aims to characterize the risk of ADRD on outcomes for patients undergoing colorectal surgery. METHODS: Colorectal surgery patients with and without ADRD from 2007 to 2017 were identified using electronic health record-linked Medicare claims data from two large health systems. Unadjusted and adjusted analyses were performed to evaluate postoperative outcomes. RESULTS: 5926 patients (median age 74) underwent colorectal surgery of whom 4.8% (n = 285) had ADRD. ADRD patients were more likely to undergo emergent operations (27.7% vs. 13.6%, p < 0.001) and be discharged to a facility (49.8% vs 28.9%, p < 0.001). After multi-variable adjustment, ADRD patients were more likely to have complications (61.1% vs 48.3%, p < 0.001) and required longer hospitalization (7.1 vs 6.1 days, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The diagnosis of ADRD is an independent risk factor for prolonged hospitalization and postoperative complications after colorectal surgery.

Trends in Prevalence of Gout Among US Asian Adults, 2011-2018.

Importance: Gout disparities among Black individuals in the US have recently been explained by socioclinical factors; however, no information is available among Asian individuals living in Western countries, despite their disproportionately worsening metabolic health. Objective: To determine the prevalence of gout and serum urate concentrations according to race and ethnicity and to explore the association of social determinants of health and clinical factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a population-based, cross-sectional analysis. Data from a nationally representative sample of US adults were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2011-2018) in which Asian race data were collected (primary). Data from the UK Biobank (2006-2021) were used for replication of the Asian vs White differences. Data analysis was performed from December 2021 to September 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Race-specific gout prevalence and serum urate levels. Results: A total of 22 621 participants from NHANES (2011-2018) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 49.8 [17.8] years; 10 948 male participants [48.4%]). In 2017 to 2018, gout affected 12.1 million US individuals, with its crude prevalence increasing from 3.6% (95% CI, 2.8%-4.5%) in 2011 to 2012 to 5.1% (95% CI, 4.2%-5.9%) in 2017 to 2018 (P for trend = .03); this trend was no longer significant after age adjustment (P for trend = .06) or excluding Asian individuals (P for trend = .11). During the same period, age- and sex-adjusted prevalence among Asian Americans doubled from 3.3% (95% CI, 2.1%-4.5%) to 6.6% (95% CI, 4.4%-8.8%) (P for trend = .007) to numerically exceed all other racial and ethnic groups in 2017 to 2018, with age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio (ORs) of 1.61 (95% CI, 1.03-2.51) and a socioclinical factor-adjusted multivariable OR of 2.62 (95% CI, 1.59-4.33) for Asian vs White individuals. The latest age- and sex-adjusted gout prevalence among US individuals aged 65 years and older was 10.0% among White individuals and 14.8% among Asian individuals (including 23.6% of Asian men). Serum urate concentrations also increased between 2011 and 2018 among US Asian individuals (P for trend = .009). The Asian vs White disparity was also present in the UK Biobank. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that the prevalence of gout among Asian individuals numerically surpassed that for all other racial and ethnic groups in 2017 to 2018. This Asian vs White disparity did not appear to be associated with socioclinical factors.

Association of Early Seizure Prophylaxis With Posttraumatic Seizures and Mortality: A Meta-analysis With Evidence Quality Assessment.

Purpose of the Review: To evaluate the quality of evidence about the association of primary seizure prophylaxis with antiseizure medication (ASM) within 7 days postinjury and the 18- or 24-month epilepsy/late seizure risk or all-cause mortality in adults with new-onset traumatic brain injury (TBI), in addition to early seizure risk. Results: Twenty-three studies met the inclusion criteria (7 randomized and 16 nonrandomized studies). We analyzed 9,202 patients, including 4,390 in the exposed group and 4,812 in the unexposed group (894 in placebo and 3,918 in no ASM groups). There was a moderate to serious bias risk based on our assessment. Within the limitations of existing studies, our data revealed a lower risk for early seizures in the ASM prophylaxis group compared with placebo or no ASM prophylaxis (risk ratio [RR] 0.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.33-0.57, p < 0.00001, I 2 = 3%). We identified high-quality evidence in favor of acute, short-term primary ASM use to prevent early seizures. Early ASM prophylaxis was not associated with a substantial difference in the 18- or 24-month risk of epilepsy/late seizures (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.61-1.68, p = 0.96, I 2 = 63%) or mortality (RR 1.16, 95% CI 0.89-1.51, p = 0.26, I 2 = 0%). There was no evidence of strong publication bias for each main outcome. The overall quality of evidence was low and moderate for post-TBI epilepsy risk and all-cause mortality, respectively. Summary: Our data suggest that the evidence showing no association between early ASM use and 18- or 24-month epilepsy risk in adults with new-onset TBI was of low quality. The analysis indicated a moderate quality for the evidence showing no effect on all-cause mortality. Therefore, higher-quality evidence is needed as a supplement for stronger recommendations.

Population turnover and leakage in commercial ACOs.

OBJECTIVES: Commercial accountable care organization (ACO) contracts attempt to mitigate spending growth, but past evaluations have been limited to continuously enrolled ACO members in health maintenance organization (HMO) plans, excluding many members. The objective of this study was to examine the magnitude of turnover and leakage within a commercial ACO. STUDY DESIGN: A historical cohort study using detailed information from multiple commercial ACO contracts within a large health care system between 2015 and 2019. METHODS: Individuals insured through 1 of the 3 largest commercial ACO contracts during the study period, 2015-2019, were included. We examined patterns of entry and exit and the characteristics that predicted remaining in the ACO compared with leaving the ACO. We also examined predictors of the amount of care delivered in the ACO compared with outside the ACO. RESULTS: Among the 453,573 commercially insured individuals in the ACO, approximately half left the ACO within the initial 24 months after entry. Approximately one-third of spending was for care occurring outside the ACO. Patients who remained in the ACO differed from those who left earlier, including being older, having a non-HMO plan, having lower predicted spending at entry, and having more medical spending for care performed within the ACO during the initial quarter of membership. CONCLUSIONS: Both turnover and leakage hamper the ability of ACOs to manage spending. Modifications that address potentially intrinsic vs avoidable sources of population turnover and increase patient incentives for care within vs outside of ACOs could help address medical spending growth within commercial ACO programs.

Coverage Parity And Racial And Ethnic Disparities In Mental Health And Substance Use Care Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

Many older Americans do not receive needed care for mental health and substance use disorders (MHSUD), and there are substantial racial and ethnic disparities in receipt of this care across the lifespan. Medicare introduced cost-sharing parity for outpatient MHSUD care during the period 2010-14, reducing beneficiaries' out-of-pocket share of MHSUD spending from 50 percent to 20 percent. Among traditional Medicare beneficiaries ages sixty-five and older, we examined changes in MHSUD use and spending during the period 2008-18 for low-income beneficiaries with the cost-sharing reduction versus a control group of beneficiaries with free care throughout the study period among Black, Hispanic, Asian, and American Indian/Alaska Native versus White beneficiaries. Among older Medicare beneficiaries, overall use of MHSUD services increased during this period. For White beneficiaries, MHSUD cost-sharing parity was associated with an increased likelihood of having specialty MHSUD visits and medication use and a reduced likelihood of having unmonitored MHSUD medication use and MHSUD emergency department visits and hospitalizations. However, cost-sharing parity was associated with smaller or no gains in MHSUD services use for racial and ethnic minority beneficiaries compared with White beneficiaries, thus widening racial and ethnic disparities in MHSUD care.

Evaluating The Accuracy Of Medicare Risk Adjustment For Alzheimer's Disease And Related Dementias.

In 2020 Medicare reintroduced Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCCs) to risk-adjust Medicare Advantage and accountable care organization (ACO) payments. The potential for Medicare spending increases from this policy change are not well understood because the baseline accuracy of ADRD HCCs is uncertain. Using linked 2016-18 claims and electronic health record data from a large ACO, we evaluated the accuracy of claims-based ADRD HCCs against a reference standard of clinician-adjudicated disease. An estimated 7.5 percent of beneficiaries had clinician-adjudicated ADRD. Among those with ADRD HCCs, 34 percent did not have clinician-adjudicated disease. The false-negative and false-positive rates were 22.7 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. Medicare spending for those with false-negative ADRD HCCs exceeded that of true positives by $14,619 per beneficiary. If, after the reintroduction of risk adjustment for ADRD, all false negatives were coded as having ADRD, expenditure benchmarks for beneficiaries with ADRD would increase by 9 percent. Monitoring ADRD coding could become challenging in the setting of concurrent incentives to decrease false-negative rates and increase false-positive rates.

Development and Evaluation of a Natural Language Processing Annotation Tool to Facilitate Phenotyping of Cognitive Status in Electronic Health Records: Diagnostic Study.

BACKGROUND: Electronic health records (EHRs) with large sample sizes and rich information offer great potential for dementia research, but current methods of phenotyping cognitive status are not scalable. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether natural language processing (NLP)-powered semiautomated annotation can improve the speed and interrater reliability of chart reviews for phenotyping cognitive status. METHODS: In this diagnostic study, we developed and evaluated a semiautomated NLP-powered annotation tool (NAT) to facilitate phenotyping of cognitive status. Clinical experts adjudicated the cognitive status of 627 patients at Mass General Brigham (MGB) health care, using NAT or traditional chart reviews. Patient charts contained EHR data from two data sets: (1) records from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2018, for 100 Medicare beneficiaries from the MGB Accountable Care Organization and (2) records from 2 years prior to COVID-19 diagnosis to the date of COVID-19 diagnosis for 527 MGB patients. All EHR data from the relevant period were extracted; diagnosis codes, medications, and laboratory test values were processed and summarized; clinical notes were processed through an NLP pipeline; and a web tool was developed to present an integrated view of all data. Cognitive status was rated as cognitively normal, cognitively impaired, or undetermined. Assessment time and interrater agreement of NAT compared to manual chart reviews for cognitive status phenotyping was evaluated. RESULTS: NAT adjudication provided higher interrater agreement (Cohen κ=0.89 vs κ=0.80) and significant speed up (time difference mean 1.4, SD 1.3 minutes; P<.001; ratio median 2.2, min-max 0.4-20) over manual chart reviews. There was moderate agreement with manual chart reviews (Cohen κ=0.67). In the cases that exhibited disagreement with manual chart reviews, NAT adjudication was able to produce assessments that had broader clinical consensus due to its integrated view of highlighted relevant information and semiautomated NLP features. CONCLUSIONS: NAT adjudication improves the speed and interrater reliability for phenotyping cognitive status compared to manual chart reviews. This study underscores the potential of an NLP-based clinically adjudicated method to build large-scale dementia research cohorts from EHRs.

Changes in Insurance Coverage Continuity After Affordable Care Act Expansion of Medicaid Eligibility for Young Adults With Low Income in Massachusetts.

Importance: Young adults historically have had the highest uninsured rates among all age groups. In 2014, in addition to Medicaid expansion for adults with low income (≤133% of the federal poverty level [FPL]) through the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, Massachusetts also extended eligibility for children (≤150% FPL) to beneficiaries aged 19 to 20 years. Objective: To examine changes in insurance coverage continuity for Medicaid enrollees who turned age 19 years before and after eligibility policy changes. Design Setting and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Massachusetts All-Payer Claims Database (2012 to 2016) to compare coverage for Medicaid beneficiaries turning age 19 years before and after Medicaid expansion. Monthly coverage was examined for each cohort for 3 years as beneficiaries aged from 18 and 19 years to 19 and 20 years to 20 and 21 years. Analyses were performed between November 1, 2020, and May 12, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: In each year, the likelihood of being uninsured or having Medicaid, employer-sponsored insurance, or individual commercial coverage for 3 or more months was examined along with the likelihood of having continuous Medicaid enrollment for 12 or more and 24 or more months. Multivariable linear probability models were used to compare the likelihood of these outcomes for those in the postexpansion vs preexpansion cohorts, adjusting for sex, comorbidity levels, neighborhood socioeconomic status, and neighborhood race and ethnicity. Results: A total of 41 247 young adults turning age 18 to 19 years in the baseline year (20 876 [50.6%] men) were included in the study, with 20 777 in the preexpansion cohort and 20 470 in the postexpansion cohort. Enrollees who turned age 19 years after vs before the Medicaid eligibility expansion were less likely to have 3 or more uninsured months at ages 18 to 19 years (4.4% [n = 891] vs 22.9% [n = 4750]; adjusted difference, -18.4 [95% CI, -19.0 to -17.7] percentage points) and 19 to 20 years (13.2% [n = 2702] vs 35.8% [n = 7447]; adjusted difference, -22.4 [95% CI, -23.2 to -21.6] percentage points) and more likely to have continuous insurance coverage for 12 or more months (94.1% [n = 19 272] vs 63.7% [n = 13 234]; adjusted difference, 30.5 [95% CI, 29.7-31.2] percentage points) or 24 or more months (77.5% [n = 15 868] vs 44.4% [n = 9221]; adjusted difference, 33.0 [95% CI, 32.1-33.9] percentage points). Differences in the likelihood of having 3 or more uninsured months diminished at ages 20 to 21 years, when both groups had access to Medicaid (ie, in calendar years 2014 for the preexpansion cohort and 2016 for the postexpansion cohort). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of young adults in Massachusetts, the combination of expanding Medicaid to lower-income adults and increasing the age threshold for child Medicaid eligibility was associated with reduced likelihood of becoming uninsured among Medicaid enrollees entering adulthood.

Premium tax credits in the American Rescue Plan and off-marketplace enrollees.

OBJECTIVES: The 2021 American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) increased the availability and magnitude of premium tax credits (PTCs) for consumers purchasing individual marketplace plans in 2021-2022. Millions currently purchase PTC-ineligible plans off of the marketplace. We estimate the proportion of off-marketplace enrollees who would be eligible for the expanded PTCs under ARPA, calculate PTC amounts for eligible enrollees, and examine factors influencing plan choice that could inform outreach efforts. STUDY DESIGN: We analyzed data from a survey of a random sample of off-marketplace enrollees in California in 2017 (n = 829). METHODS: Using survey data including self-reported income, household size, and employment status combined with 2021 benchmark premium data from Covered California, we estimate eligibility for PTCs and potential PTC amounts under ARPA among off-marketplace enrollees. We adjust for both survey design weights and poststratification weights. RESULTS: Among off-marketplace enrollees, we estimate that approximately 12% are potentially ineligible for PTCs because they reported incomes less than 100% of the poverty level or because they had access to employer-sponsored coverage for their family through themselves or their partner. The median annual PTC in 2021 for eligible off-marketplace enrollees was $311 but varied greatly by age, family or individual plan, and household income (5%-95% range, $0-$14,836). In 2017, 69% of off-marketplace enrollees were unaware that they had to enroll in marketplace plans to receive PTCs, and 51% received enrollment assistance from insurance brokers. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest the need for targeted outreach to encourage off-marketplace enrollees to switch to marketplace plans.

Identifying Medicare Beneficiaries With Delirium.

BACKGROUND: Each year, thousands of older adults develop delirium, a serious, preventable condition. At present, there is no well-validated method to identify patients with delirium when using Medicare claims data or other large datasets. We developed and assessed the performance of classification algorithms based on longitudinal Medicare administrative data that included International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition diagnostic codes. METHODS: Using a linked electronic health record (EHR)-Medicare claims dataset, 2 neurologists and 2 psychiatrists performed a standardized review of EHR records between 2016 and 2018 for a stratified random sample of 1002 patients among 40,690 eligible subjects. Reviewers adjudicated delirium status (reference standard) during this 3-year window using a structured protocol. We calculated the probability that each patient had delirium as a function of classification algorithms based on longitudinal Medicare claims data. We compared the performance of various algorithms against the reference standard, computing calibration-in-the-large, calibration slope, and the area-under-receiver-operating-curve using 10-fold cross-validation (CV). RESULTS: Beneficiaries had a mean age of 75 years, were predominately female (59%), and non-Hispanic Whites (93%); a review of the EHR indicated that 6% of patients had delirium during the 3 years. Although several classification algorithms performed well, a relatively simple model containing counts of delirium-related diagnoses combined with patient age, dementia status, and receipt of antipsychotic medications had the best overall performance [CV- calibration-in-the-large <0.001, CV-slope 0.94, and CV-area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.88 95% confidence interval: 0.84-0.91)]. CONCLUSIONS: A delirium classification model using Medicare administrative data and International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition diagnosis codes can identify beneficiaries with delirium in large datasets.

Geographic access to federally qualified health centers before and after the affordable care act.

BACKGROUND: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) increased funding for Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs). We defined FQHC service areas based on patient use and examined the characteristics of areas that gained FQHC access post-ACA. METHODS: We defined FQHC service areas using total patient counts by ZIP code from the Uniform Data System (UDS) and compared this approach with existing methods. We then compared the characteristics of ZIP codes included in Medically Underserved Areas/Populations (MUA/Ps) that gained access vs. MUA/P ZIP codes that did not gain access to FQHCs between 2011-15. RESULTS: FQHC service areas based on UDS data vs. Primary Care Service Areas or counties included a higher percentage of each FQHC's patients (86% vs. 49% and 71%) and ZIP codes with greater use of FQHCs among low-income residents (29% vs. 22% and 22%), on average. MUA/Ps that gained FQHC access 2011-2015 included more poor, uninsured, publicly insured, and foreign-born residents than underserved areas that did not gain access, but were less likely to be rural (p < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Measures of actual patient use provide a promising method of assessing FQHC service areas and access. Post-ACA funding, the FQHC program expanded access into areas that were more likely to have higher rates of poverty and uninsurance, which could help address disparities in access to care. Rural areas were less likely to gain access to FQHCs, underscoring the persistent challenges of providing care in these areas.

Expansion of Insurance Under the Affordable Care Act and Invasive Management of Acute Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: The Affordable Care Act of 2010 extended health insurance through expansion of Medicaid and subsidies for commercial insurance. Prior work has produced differing results in associating expanded insurance with improvements in health care processes and outcomes. Evaluating specific mechanisms of care processes and their association with insurance expansion may help reconcile those results. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used inpatient hospitalization data in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP), Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality from 1/1/2008 to 9/30/2015. We included all hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). As a primary outcome, we defined percent rate of AMI hospitalizations receiving percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) per month. In the non-Medicare (intervention) group, there was a relative decrease of 0.2% of the monthly trend before and after expansion (95% CI [-0.3%, -0.1%]). In the Medicare group, there was a relative decrease of 0.1% of the monthly trend before and after expansion (95% CI [-0.2%, 0%]). CONCLUSIONS: We did not detect a relative difference in PCI for AMI associated with insurance expansion under health reform.

Growth In ACA-Compliant Marketplace Enrollment And Spending Risk Changes During The COVID-19 Pandemic.

In 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic caused millions to lose their jobs and, consequently, their employer-sponsored health insurance. Enacted in 2010, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) created safeguards for such events by expanding Medicaid coverage and establishing Marketplaces through which people could purchase health insurance. Using a novel national data set with information on ACA-compliant individual insurance plans, we found large increases in Marketplace enrollment in 2020 compared with 2019 but with varying percentage increases and spending risk implications across states. States that did not expand Medicaid had enrollment and spending risk increases. States that expanded Medicaid but did not relax 2020 Marketplace enrollment criteria also had spending risk increases. In contrast, states that expanded Medicaid and relaxed 2020 enrollment criteria experienced enrollment increases without spending risk changes. The findings are reassuring with respect to the ability of Marketplaces to buffer employment shocks, but they also provide cautionary signals that risks and premiums could begin to rise either in the absence of Medicaid expansion or when Marketplace enrollment is constrained.

Anticonvulsant Primary and Secondary Prophylaxis for Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients: A Decision Analysis.

Background and Purpose: We examined the impact of 3 anticonvulsant prophylaxis strategies on quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) among patients with an incident acute ischemic stroke. Methods: We created a decision tree to evaluate 3 strategies: (1) long-term primary prophylaxis; (2) short-term secondary prophylaxis after an early seizure with lifetime prophylaxis if persistent or late seizures (LSs) developed; and (3) long-term secondary prophylaxis if either early, late, or persistent seizures developed. The outcome was quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALY). We created 4 base cases to simulate common clinical scenarios: (1) female patient aged 40 years with a 2% or 11% lifetime risk of an LS and a 33% lifetime risk of an adverse drug reaction (ADR); (2) male patient aged 65 years with a 6% or 29% LS risk and 60% ADR risk; (3) male patient aged 50 years with an 18% or 65% LS risk and 33% ADR risk; and (4) female patient aged 80 years with a 29% or 83% LS risk and 80% ADR risk. In sensitivity analyses, we altered the parameters and assumptions. Results: Across all 4 base cases, primary prophylaxis yielded the fewest QALYs when compared with secondary prophylaxis. For example, under scenario 1, strategies 2 and 3 resulted in 7.17 QALYs each, but strategy 1 yielded only 6.91 QALYs. Under scenario 4, strategies 2 and 3 yielded 2.85 QALYs compared with 1.40 QALYs for strategy 1. Under scenarios in which patients had higher ADR risks, strategy 2 led to the most QALYs. Conclusions: Short-term therapy with continued anticonvulsant prophylaxis only after postischemic stroke seizures arise dominates lifetime primary prophylaxis in all scenarios examined. Our findings reinforce the necessity of close follow-up and discontinuation of anticonvulsant seizure prophylaxis started during acute ischemic stroke hospitalization.