Cost-utility analysis and drug pricing for tirzepatide for type 2 diabetes in the Chinese market compared with semaglutide.

AIM: To investigate the most matchable price of tirzepatide (TIRZ) compared with semaglutide (SEMA) in the treatment of type 2 diabetes in China. METHODS: The patient cohort and clinical efficacy data were derived from the SURPASS-2 trial. Cost-utility analysis and a binary search were performed to identify the most matchable price of TIRZ from a Chinese healthcare provider's perspective. RESULTS: After lifetime simulation, the quality-adjusted life years of TIRZ 5, 10, 15 mg and SEMA 1 mg were 11.17, 11.21, 11.27 and 11.12 years, respectively. Despite an initial assumption that the annual cost of TIRZ equals that of SEMA, our analysis revealed that TIRZ is probably more cost-effective than SEMA. A thorough evaluation of pricing showed that the cost ranges for TIRZ at doses of 5, 10 and 15 mg were $1628.61-$1846.23, $1738.40-$2140.95 and $1800.30-$2430.81, respectively. After adjustment in the univariate sensitivity analysis, the cost ranges for TIRZ 5, 10 and 15 mg were $1542.68-$1757.57, $1573.00-$1967.16 and $1576.54-$2133.96, respectively. These cost intervals were validated through robust probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis, except for the cost range for TIRZ 5 mg. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that, using SEMA as a reference, the annual costs for TIRZ 10 and 15 mg are $1573.00-$1967.16 and $1576.54-$2133.96, respectively, for patients with type 2 diabetes in China.

Cost-effectiveness of sacituzumab govitecan versus single-agent chemotherapy for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer: a trial-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sacituzumab govitecan (SG) has recently been approved in China for the post-line treatment of metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (mTNBC). SG substantially improves progression-free survival and overall survival compared with single-agent chemotherapy for pretreated mTNBC. However, in view of the high price of SG, it is necessary to consider its value in terms of costs and outcomes. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of SG versus single-agent treatment of physician's choice (TPC) in the post-line setting for patients with mTNBC from a Chinese healthcare system perspective. METHODS: The cohort characteristics were sourced from the ASCENT randomized clinical trial, which enrolled 468 heavily pretreated patients with mTNBC between November 2017 and September 2019. A partitioned survival model was constructed to assess the long-term costs and effectiveness of SG versus TPC in the post-line treatment of mTNBC. Quality-adjusted life-months (QALMs) and total costs in 2022 US dollars were used to derive incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER). QALMs and costs were discounted at 5% annually. The willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was defined as $3188 per QALM, three times China's average monthly per capita gross domestic product in 2022. One-way sensitivity analysis, probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and scenario analyses were performed to estimate the robustness of the results. RESULTS: Treatment with SG yielded an incremental 5.17 QALMs at a cost of $44,792 per QALM, much above the WTP threshold of $3188/QALM in China. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that SG price was a crucial factor in the ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that the cost-effective acceptability of SG was 0% in the current setting. Scenario analyses indicated that the result was robust in all subgroups in ASCENT or under different time horizons. Furthermore, SG must reduce the price to enter the Chinese mainland market. When the monthly cost of SG reduce to $2298, SG has about 50% probability to be a preferred choice than TPC. CONCLUSIONS: SG was estimated to be not cost-effective compared with TPC for post-line treatment for mTNBC in China by the current price in HK under a WTP threshold of $3188 per QALM. A drastic price reduction is necessary to improve its cost-effectiveness.

Cost-utility analysis of trastuzumab deruxtecan versus trastuzumab emtansine in HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer in Chinese setting.

PURPOSE: Trastuzumab deruxtecan (T-DXd) expressed substantial improvement in the progression-free survival and overall survival contrasted with trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) in patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer (mBC), becoming the second-line standard of care, promisingly. We aim to estimate the cost-utility of T-DXd versus T-DM1 in HER2-positive mBC from the Chinese healthcare perspective. METHODS: A partitioned survival model was applied to examine the cost-utility of T-DXd versus T-DM1. Clinical patients and outcome data were sourced from the DESTINY-Breast 03 trial. Costs and utilities were sourced in Chinese setting. Total costs, quality-adjusted life months (QALMs), and an incremental cost-utility ratios (ICUR) were calculated for cost-utility analysis. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $3188/QALM. Univariate, scenario, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: T-DXd group gained ∆QALM of 7.09 months and ∆Cost of $304,503 compared with T-DM1 therapy, which caused an ICUR of $42,936/QALM. The results of sensitivity analyses confirmed the base-case findings. Furthermore, T-DXd must reduce the price to enter the Chinese mainland market. At least when the cycle cost of T-DXd is reduced to $2975, T-DXd has an 83.3% chance of becoming a better choice. CONCLUSIONS: T-DXd appears to be not cost effective compared with T-DM1 for HER2-positive mBC patients previously treated with trastuzumab and a taxane.

Development and Assessment of a Novel Predictive Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Secondary CR-GNB Bloodstream Infections among CR-GNB Carriers in the Gastroenterology Department: A Retrospective Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: With the number of critically ill patients increasing in gastroenterology departments (GEDs), infections associated with Carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (CR-GNB) are of great concern in GED. However, no CR-GNB bloodstream infection (BSI) risk prediction model has been established for GED patients. Almost universally, CR-GNB colonization precedes or occurs concurrently with CR-GNB BSI. The objective of this study was to develop a nomogram that could predict the risk of acquiring secondary CR-GNB BSI in GED patients who are carriers of CR-GNB. METHODS: We conducted a single-center retrospective case-control study from January 2020 to March 2022. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors of secondary CR-GNB bloodstream infections among CR-GNB carriers in the gastroenterology department. A nomogram was constructed according to a multivariable regression model. Various aspects of the established predicting nomogram were evaluated, including discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. We assessed internal validation using bootstrapping. RESULTS: The prediction nomogram includes the following predictors: high ECOG PS, severe acute pancreatitis, diabetes mellitus, neutropenia, a long stay in hospital, and parenteral nutrition. The model demonstrated good discrimination and good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: With an estimate of individual risk using the nomogram developed in this study, clinicians and nurses can identify patients with a high risk of secondary CR-GNB BSI early.

Cost-utility analysis of semaglutide for type 2 diabetes after its addition to the National Medical Insurance System in China.

INTRODUCTION: The main research purpose is to compare the long-term cost-effectiveness of semaglutide (SEMA) with that of dulaglutide (DULA) for patients with inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes throughout their lifetime. If necessary, the second aim is to investigate a further price cut for SEMA to provide sound advice for government drug price adjustments. METHODS: Cost-utility analysis was performed by the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 2 (UKPDS OM2) from the perspective of health care providers in China. Baseline characteristics and clinical efficacy of SEMA and DULA were sourced from the high-dose comparison in the SUSTAIN-7 trial. A binary search was used to identify the scope for further reduction in the price of SEMA. The impact of individual parameters was assessed with sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Main analysis (SEMA vs. DULA) revealed a mean difference in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 0.04 QALYs and costs of $1132.29. The incremental cost-utility ratio was $26 957.44/QALY, showing that SEMA was a better option compared with DULA. In sensitivity analyses, the discount rate made the greatest contribution to the incremental cost-utility ratio. In the binary search, there was still scope to reduce the SEMA cost further by approximately 6.83% to be cost-effective, taking DULA as a reference. CONCLUSION: After its addition to the National Medical Insurance System in China, SEMA is expected to be a cost-effective choice compared with DULA for patients with type 2 diabetes with inadequately controlled from the cost-utility analysis. However, there is still scope to reduce the annual cost of SEMA further.

Insulin degludec/liraglutide versus its monotherapy on T2D patients: A lifetime cost-utility analysis in China.

Introduction: IDegLira (brand name Xultophy) is a novel fixed ratio combination of insulin degludec and liraglutide for type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients. This study aimed to investigate the lifetime cost-effective value of IDegLira compared with its single component (Degludec or Liraglutide) and to explore the suitable annual cost of IDegLira if necessary. Methods: UKPDS OM2 was applied to determine the long-term quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and total costs. The efficacy data that were inputted into the model were synthesized from 6 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that directly assessed the clinical benefit of IDegLira and its components in the treatment of uncontrolled T2D patients. The economic results were examined by one-way sensitivity analysis (OSA) and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Further price reduction of IDegLira was investigated by binary search. Results: The IDegLira, IDeg, and Lira yielded 11.79 QALYs, 11.62 QALYs, and 11.73 QALYs and total cost of $20281.61, $3726.76, and $11941.26, respectively. The incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of IDegLira versus IDeg was $99464.12/QALYs, and the ICUR of IDegLira versus Lira was $143348.26/QALYs, which indicated that IDegLira was not a cost-effective therapy for T2D patients compared with its components at the current price from a Chinese national healthcare system perspective. Base case results were robust to OSA and PSA. A further binary search showed that IDegLira appears to only be cost-effective if the annual cost of IDegLira is decreased by 58% when IDeg is considered as a reference, or by 30.57% when Lira is considered as a reference. Conclusion: In conclusion, IDegLira appears to not be cost-effective when compared with the current prices of IDeg or Lira for T2D patients in China. However, after the binary search, IDegLira appears to only be cost-effective if the annual cost of IDegLira is decreased 58% when IDeg is considered as a reference, or by 30.57% when Lira is considered as a reference.

Urban blue-green space landscape ecological health assessment based on the integration of pattern, process, function and sustainability.

Landscape ecological health (LEH) assessment of blue-green space is vital for the management and restoration of the urban environment. At present, existing LEH assessment research has mainly focused on the single measurement of landscape pattern or external ecological service function, ignoring the effect mechanism. Moreover, there is a lack of targeted assessment of urban blue-green space LEH. In this study, we constructed an urban blue-green space LEH assessment framework based on the integration of pattern, process, function and sustainability, and conducted an empirical analysis in Harbin, a megacity in Northeastern China. The results showed that the spatial changes in the four assessment units of landscape ecological pattern, process, function and sustainability were not coordinated in the study area. From 2011 to 2020, the overall condition of blue-green space LEH in the study area improved but still at an unhealthy level, and the spatial difference increased. Grassland, water and wetland suffered from the widespread degradation of LEH in the study area, and the LEH level improvement type had the largest area proportion, and the stabilization type had the smallest. Moreover, based on the spatial autocorrelation analysis, we clarified the LEH spatial correlation characteristics of the study area and proposed targeted optimization suggestions. Our assessment framework will extend the LEH assessment scope and methodology, and the research results can provide significant references for urban blue-green space protection and management.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Once-Weekly Semaglutide, Dulaglutide, and Exenatide for Type 2 Diabetes Patients Receiving Metformin-Based Background Therapy in China.

Introduction: The substantial financial burden associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) over a lifetime cannot be neglected. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the pharmacoeconomic value of three once-weekly GLP-1 RAs, namely subcutaneous semaglutide (sc. SEMA), dulaglutide (DULA), and extended-release exenatide (e-r EXEN), in treating patients with T2D that cannot be controlled with metformin-based background therapy, and to find a suitable price reduction for non-cost-effective medications, to provide reasonable recommendations to the administration for adjusting drug prices. Methods: The baseline characteristics of the simulation patient cohort were sourced from a comprehensive meta-analysis synthesizing 453 trials evaluating 21 hypoglycemic agents from nine categories of drugs. The UKPDS OM2 was applied to project the long-term effectiveness and costs from a Chinese health care provider's perspective. After cost-utility analysis, the reasonable price adjustment of non-cost-effective options was explored via binary search. Uncertainty was measured by means of sensitivity analysis. Results: After a 40-year simulation, the sc. SEMA, DULA, and e-r EXEN groups yielded 9.6315, 9.5968, and 9.5895 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), respectively. In terms of expenditure, the total costs for the sc. SEMA, DULA, and e-r EXEN groups were $42012.47, $24931.27, and $40264.80, respectively. DULA was dominant over e-r EXEN due to the higher QALYs and lower total costs. The ICURs of sc. SEMA vs. DULA and sc. SEMA vs. e-r EXEN were $492994.72/QALY and $41622.69/QALY (ICUR > λ), respectively, indicating that sc. SEMA was not more cost-effective than DULA or e-r EXEN. The INMB and absolute NMB yielded the same conclusions which were robust to one-way, scenario, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. After several assumptions in the binary search, sc. SEMA and e-r EXEN appear to become cost-effective when their annual costs are decreased by 57.67% and 70.34%, respectively, with DULA as a counterpart. Conclusion: From the cost-utility analysis, DULA appears to be the most cost-effective option among sc. SEMA, DULA, and e-r EXEN for the treatment of patients with T2D receiving metformin-based background therapy. With a 57.67% or 70.34% reduction in cost, sc. SEMA or e-r EXEN, respectively, would become as cost-effective as DULA in China.

Risk Factors for Carbapenem Resistant Gram Negative Bacteria (CR-GNB) Carriage Upon Admission to the Gastroenterology Department in a Tertiary First Class Hospital of China: Development and Assessment of a New Predictive Nomogram.

Background: With the increasing number of critically ill patients in the gastroenterology department (GED), infections associated with Carbapenem resistant gram-negative bacteria (CR-GNB) are of great concern in GED. As the turn-around time (TAT) for a positive screening culture result is slow, contact precaution and pre-emptive isolation, cohorting methods should be undertaken immediately on admission for high-risk patients. Accurate prediction tools for CR-GNB colonization in GED can help determine target populations upon admission. And thus, clinicians and nurses can implement preventive measures more timely and effectively. Objective: The purpose of the current study was to develop and internally validate a CR-GNB carrier risk predictive nomogram for a Chinese population in GED. Methods: Based on a training dataset of 400 GED patients collected between January 2020 and December 2021, we developed a model to predict CR-GNB carrier risk. A rectal swab was used to evaluate the patients' CR-GNB colonization status microbiologically. We optimized features selection using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model (LASSO). In order to develop a predicting model, multivariable logistic regression analysis was then undertaken. Various aspects of the predicting model were evaluated, including discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. We assessed internal validation using bootstrapping. Results: The prediction nomogram includes the following predictors: Transfer from another hospital (Odds ratio [OR] 3.48), High Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (OR 2.61), Longterm in healthcare facility (OR 10.94), ICU admission history (OR 9.03), Blood stream infection history (OR 3.31), Liver cirrhosis (OR 4.05) and Carbapenem usage history within 3 month (OR 2.71). The model demonstrated good discrimination and good calibration. Conclusion: With an estimate of individual risk using the nomogram developed in this study, clinicians and nurses can take more timely infection preventive measures on isolation, cohorting and medical interventions.

Exploring the Appropriate Price of Semaglutide for Type 2 Diabetes Patients Based on Cost-Utility Analysis in China.

Introduction: Semaglutide is the first and only oral version of a glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue approved by the FDA for the treatment of type 2 diabetes (T2D). This research was designed to explore the appropriate price of once-weekly (OW) semaglutide for T2D patients in China based on cost-utility analysis. Methods: The baseline patient cohorts of OW semaglutide and once-daily (OD) empagliflozin were sourced from a patient-level meta-analysis integrating the SUSTAIN 2, SUSTAIN 3, SUSTAIN 8 and PIONEER 2 trials. The long-term health and economic outcomes were simulated using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcome Model 2 from the Chinese healthcare provider's perspective. The appropriate price of semaglutide was explored by binary search. One-way sensitivity analysis (one-way SA), probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis were applied to solve the uncertainty. Results: Under the assumption that the annual cost of semaglutide is equal to that of OD empagliflozin, OW semaglutide was superior to OD empagliflozin due to its higher quality adjusted life years and lower total costs. After binary search, the incremental cost-utility ratio of OW semaglutide vs. OD empagliflozin was approximately equal to 3λ with an annual cost of semaglutide of $1,007.18 and approximately equal to λ with an annual cost of semaglutide of $708.11. Subsequently, the incremental cost-utility ratio of OW semaglutide vs. OD empagliflozin was approximately 3λ and λ, with annual costs of semaglutide of $877.43 and $667.04, respectively, adjusted by one-way SA. Ultimately, the cost-utility results with annual costs of semaglutide of $877.43 and $667.04 were robust to probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. Conclusion: In conclusion, the annual cost of semaglutide appears to be appropriate between $667.04 and $877.43 for T2D patients in China.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Dapagliflozin Versus Saxagliptin Treatment as Monotherapy or Combination Therapy as Add-on to Metformin for Treating Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the long-term cost effectiveness of dapagliflozin (DAPA) and saxagliptin (SAXA) separately or together in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) inadequately controlled by metformin (MET). METHODS: Five head-to-head randomised controlled trials of the efficacy of DAPA and SAXA in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients were found by searching PubMed, Embase and Cochrane from inception to October 2019. The lifetime disease progression and long-term effectiveness of therapy in patients were projected by the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcome Model 2 (UKPDS OM2) in three T2DM therapeutic groups: DAPA + SAXA, DAPA and SAXA. Each group used DAPA and/or SAXA as an add-on therapy to MET. The study took the perspective of Chinese healthcare service providers. Univariate, scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: The quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) value of the DAPA + SAXA, SAXA and DAPA groups were 11.28, 11.26 and 11.45 years, respectively. The total costs were US$27,954.84, US$23,254.46 and US$25,608.49, respectively. DAPA was dominant over DAPA + SAXA. The DAPA + SAXA group presented an estimated QALY gain of 0.02 and a total cost increase of US$4700.39 over the SAXA group, with an incremental cost of US$217,530.10 per QALY. Compared with the SAXA group, the DAPA group had a QALY gain of 0.19 years and a total cost increase of US$2354.04, for an incremental cost of US$12,191.97 per QALY. The pharmacoeconomic results were robust to univariate, scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with DAPA + SAXA or SAXA, DAPA appears to be a cost-effective therapy as add-on to MET for Chinese patients whose T2DM is insufficiently controlled by MET.