Comparative Analysis of Vaccine Inequity and COVID-19 Transmission Amid the Omicron Variant Among Countries - Six Countries, Asia-Pacific Region, 2022.

What is already known about this topic?: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) persists as a significant global public health crisis. The predominant strain, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), notably the Omicron variant, continues to undergo mutations. While vaccination is heralded as the paramount solution to cease the pandemic, challenges persist in providing equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines. What is added by this report?: The distribution of vaccine coverage exhibited disparities between high-income and middle-income countries, with middle-income countries evidencing lower levels of vaccination. The data further suggested that countries with lesser vaccination levels tended to display a higher case fatality rate. Findings indicated that an increase in population-wide vaccination was effective in mitigating COVID-19 related mortalities. What are the implications for public health practice?: The findings of this research underscore the pressing necessity for equitable access to vaccines to effectively mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic within the Asia-Pacific region.

Long-Term Neurological Sequelae and Disease Burden of Japanese Encephalitis in Gansu Province, China.

Background and objects: The study aimed to evaluate the long-term neurological sequelae and the disease burden of JE in Gansu, China. Methods: JE patients were included as study population from 2005-2011 in Gansu, and a follow-up survey was conducted in 2007-2014. Pair-matched healthy individuals were selected as controls. All subjects underwent a neurological examination and intelligence quotient (IQ) and memory quotient (MQ) assessments. Then, the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and direct and indirect medical expenses were systematic assessed. Results: Forty-four point seven percent of the JE patients had objective neurological deficits, compared with 2.4% of controls. Subnormal intelligence was found in 21.2% of JE subjects, compared with 1.2% control who exhibited a mildly reduced IQ. Abnormal MQ scores were noted in 56.3% JE subjects, compared with only 12.7% controls. Prevalence of each sequelae caused by JE were significantly higher in adults than in younger subjects. Furthermore, median DALY lost due to JE was 9.2 per subject. Median economic cost of JE was approximately $2776.6 per subject and significantly higher in adults than in younger subjects. Findings and Conclusions: JE patients suffered from severe neurological sequelae and high disease burden, resulting in a significant downstream burden for both the patients (especially adults) and the healthcare system.

Weather Variability, Socioeconomic Factors, and Pneumonia in Children Under Five-Years Old - Bangladesh, 2012-2016.

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ON THIS TOPIC?: Different socioecological factors were associated with childhood pneumonia in Bangladesh. However, previous studies did not assess spatial patterns, and socioecological factors and spatial variation have the potential to improve the accuracy and predictive ability of existing models. WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT?: The spatial random effects were present at the district level and were heterogeneous. Average temperature, temperature variation, and population density may influence the spatial pattern of childhood pneumonia in Bangladesh. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE?: The study results will help policymakers and health managers to identify the vulnerable districts, plan further investigations, help to improve proper resource allocation, and improve health interventions.

A regional suitable conditions index to forecast the impact of climate change on dengue vectorial capacity.

BACKGROUND: The mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the primary vectors of dengue virus, and their geographic distributions are predicted to expand further with economic development, and in response to climate change. We aimed to estimate the impact of future climate change on dengue transmission through the development of a Suitable Conditions Index (SCI), based on climatic variables known to support vectorial capacity. We calculated the SCI based on various climate change scenarios for six countries in the Asia-Pacific region (Australia, China, Indonesia, The Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam). METHODS: Monthly raster climate data (temperature and precipitation) were collected for the period January 2005 to December 2018 along with projected climate estimates for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4·5, 6·0 and 8·5 emissions scenarios. We defined suitable temperature ranges for dengue transmission of between 17·05-34·61 °C for Ae. aegypti and 15·84-31·51 °C for Ae. albopictus and then developed a historical and predicted SCI based on weather variability to measure the expected geographic limits of dengue vectorial capacity. Historical and projected SCI values were compared through difference maps for the six countries. FINDINGS: Comparing different emission scenarios across all countries, we found that most South East Asian countries showed either a stable pattern of high suitability, or a potential decline in suitability for both vectors from 2030 to 2070, with a declining pattern particularly evident for Ae. albopictus. Temperate areas of both China and Australia showed a less stable pattern, with both moderate increases and decreases in suitability for each vector in different regions between 2030 and 2070. INTERPRETATION: The SCI will be a useful index for forecasting potential dengue risk distributions in response to climate change, and independently of the effects of human activity. When considered alongside additional correlates of infection such as human population density and socioeconomic development indicators, the SCI could be used to develop an early warning system for dengue transmission.

Global, regional, and national burden of lung cancer and its attributable risk factors, 1990 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: China's lung cancer (LC) burden plays a pivotal role in the global cancer epidemic. Comparing LC burden and population attributable fractions (PAFs) of risk factors between China and other countries/regions is essential to inform effective intervention. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study provides a unique opportunity for such comparisons. METHODS: We extracted the number of LC deaths, age-standardized death rates (ASDRs), age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates, and PAFs of risk factors for LC deaths between 1990 and 2017 from GBD 2017. The annual percentage change (APC) was used to quantify the trends of LC ASDRs and age-standardized DALY rates. The relationship between the APC of LC ASDR and Socio-demographic Index was assessed among China and other countries. RESULTS: Globally, the ASDR for LC decreased in men (APC, -0.66% [95% CI, -0.69 to -0.62]) but increased in women (APC, 0.31% [95% CI, 0.26 to 0.36]) from 1990 to 2017. The ASDRs in China increased both for men (APC, 1.12% [95% CI, 1.03 to 1.20]) and women (APC, 0.80% [95% CI, 0.70 to 0.89]). The increased LC death numbers among men (312,798) and women (139,115) in China accounted for 59.39% and 43.01% of global increases. LC years of life lost accounted for the majority of LC DALYs globally and in China. The risk factors with the highest PAFs of LC death in China were smoking and ambient particulate matter. The ASDRs for LC associated with ambient particulate matter in China ranked second globally. CONCLUSIONS: The trends of LC ASDRs and age-standardized DALY rates and the PAFs of risk factors vary markedly by region, indicating a need for tailored measures to reduce LC burden and improve health equality. China's LC ASDRs are among the highest in the world, and the primary intervention priorities in China should be control of ambient particulate matter and tobacco usage.

Mortality and Disease Burden of Injuries from 2008 to 2017 in Anhui Province, China.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the temporal trends in mortality and disease burden of injuries in Anhui province from 2008 to 2017, so as to provide reference for injury control and prevention. METHODS: Data of mortality were collected from 9 national surveillance points in Anhui province during 2008-2017 in the Information System for Death Cause Register and Management. The surveillance data were analyzed by using crude mortality, standardized mortality rate (SMR), potential year of life lost (PYLL), PYLL rate (PYLLR), and average of year life lost (AYLL). RESULTS: There were a total of 44855 people died from injury, accounted for 9.44% of the all-cause mortality, ranked as the fifth leading cause of deaths in the whole population, and denoted the first leading cause of deaths in the 0-44 year's group. The leading causes of injury deaths were road traffic accidents, suicide, accidental falls, drowning, and poisoning. Road traffic accidents was the primary cause of injury deaths among the male population, while suicide was the dominate cause of injury deaths among the female population. Drowning, traffic accidents, and suicide accounted for the most injury deaths among the population aged 0-14 years, 15-64 years, and above 60 years, respectively. The road traffic accidents accounted for the largest proportion of injury PYLL and PYLLR, and drowning caused the highest AYLL among injury deaths. CONCLUSION: In Anhui province, road traffic accidents, suicide, accidental falls, drowning, and poisoning were the top five causes of injury deaths that harm the health of local residents; corresponding injury prevention strategies should be formulated.

Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and its transmission is closely linked to climate. We aimed to review available information on the projection of dengue in the future under climate change scenarios. METHODS: Using five databases (PubMed, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, Scopus and Web of Science), a systematic review was conducted to retrieve all articles from database inception to 30th June 2019 which projected the future of dengue under climate change scenarios. In this review, "the future of dengue" refers to disease burden of dengue, epidemic potential of dengue cases, geographical distribution of dengue cases, and population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue. RESULTS: Sixteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, and five of them projected a global dengue future. Most studies reported an increase in disease burden, a wider spatial distribution of dengue cases or more people exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue as climate change proceeds. The years 1961-1990 and 2050 were the most commonly used baseline and projection periods, respectively. Multiple climate change scenarios introduced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including B1, A1B, and A2, as well as Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, were most widely employed. Instead of projecting the future number of dengue cases, there is a growing consensus on using "population exposed to climatically suitable areas for dengue" or "epidemic potential of dengue cases" as the outcome variable. Future studies exploring non-climatic drivers which determine the presence/absence of dengue vectors, and identifying the pivotal factors triggering the transmission of dengue in those climatically suitable areas would help yield a more accurate projection for dengue in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Projecting the future of dengue requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will facilitate the development of tailored climate change adaptation strategies to manage dengue.

Geographical Disparity and Associated Factors of COPD Prevalence in China: A Spatial Analysis of National Cross-Sectional Study.

Purpose: COPD prevalence has rapidly increased in China, but the geographical disparities in COPD prevalence remain largely unknown. This study aimed to assess city-level disparities in COPD prevalence and identify the relative importance of COPD related risk factors in mainland China. Patients and Methods: A nationwide cross-sectional study of COPD recruited 66,752 adults across the mainland China between 2014 and 2015. Patients with COPD were ascertained by a post-bronchodilator pulmonary function test. We estimated the city-specific prevalence of COPD by spatial kriging interpolation method. We detected spatial clusters with a significantly higher prevalence of COPD by spatial scan statistics. We determined the relative importance of COPD associated risk factors by a nonparametric and nonlinear classification and regression tree (CART) model. Results: The three spatial clusters with the highest prevalence of COPD were located in parts of Sichuan, Gansu, and Shaanxi, etc. (relative risks (RRs)) ranging from 1.55 (95% CI 1.55-1.56) to 1.33 (95% CI 1.33-1.33)). CART showed that advanced age (≥60 years) was the most important factor associated with COPD in the overall population, followed by smoking. We estimated that there were about 28.5 million potentially avoidable cases of COPD among people aged 40 or older if they never smoked. PM2.5 was an important associated risk factor for COPD in the north, northeast, and southwest of China. After adjusting for age and smoking, the spatial cluster with the highest prevalence shifted to most of Sichuan, Gansu, Qinghai, and Ningxia, etc. (RR 1.65 (95% CI 1.63-1.67)). Conclusion: The spatial clusters of COPD at the city level and regionally varied important risk factors for COPD would help develop tailored interventions for COPD in China. After adjusting for the main risk factors, the spatial clusters of COPD shifted, indicating that there would be other potential risk factors for the remaining clusters which call for further studies.

Spatial and temporal variation of dengue incidence in the island of Bali, Indonesia: An ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever control in the tropical island of Bali in Indonesia carries important significance both nationally and globally, as it is one of the most endemic islands in Indonesia and a worldwide popular travel destination. Despite its importance, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in dengue risk and factors associated with its variation in risk across the island has not been not well explored. This study was aimed to analyze for the first time the geographical and temporal patterns of the incidence of dengue and to quantify the role of environmental and social factors on the spatial heterogeneity of dengue incidence in Bali. METHODS: We analyzed retrospective dengue notification data at the sub-district level (Kecamatan) from January 2012 to December 2017 which obtained from the Indonesian Ministry of Health. Seasonality in notified dengue incidence was assessed by seasonal trend decomposition analysis with Loess (STL) smoothing. Crude standardized morbidity rates (SMRs) of dengue were calculated. Moran's I and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) analysis were employed to assess spatial clustering and high-risk areas over the period studied. Bayesian spatial and temporal conditional autoregressive (CAR) modeling was performed to quantify the effects of rainfall, temperature, elevation, and population density on the spatial distribution of risk of dengue in Bali. RESULTS: Strong seasonality of dengue incidence was observed with most cases notified during January to May. Dengue incidence was spatially clustered during the period studied with high-risk kecamatans concentrated in the south of the island, but since 2014, the high-risk areas expanded toward the eastern part of the island. The best-fitted CAR model showed increased dengue risk in kecamatans with high total annual rainfall (relative risk (RR): 1.16 for each 1-mm increase in rainfall; 95% Credible interval (CrI): 1.03-1.31) and high population density (RR: 7.90 per 1000 people/sq.km increase; 95% CrI: 3.01-20.40). The RR of dengue was decreased in kecamatans with higher elevation (RR: 0.73 for each 1-m increase in elevation; 95% CrI: 0.55-0.98). No significant association was observed between dengue RR and year except in 2014, where the dengue RR was significantly lower (RR: 0.53; 95% CrI: 0.30-0.92) relative to 2012. CONCLUSIONS: Dengue incidence was strongly seasonal and spatially clustered in Bali. High-risk areas were spread from kecamatans in Badung and Denpasar toward Karangasem and Klungkung. The spatial heterogeneity of dengue risk across Bali was influenced by rainfall, elevation, and population density. Surveillance and targeted intervention strategies should be prioritized in the high-risk kecamatans identified in this study to better control dengue transmission in this most touristic island in Indonesia. Local health authorities should recommend travelers to use personal protective measures, especially during the peak epidemic period, before visiting Bali.

Estimating cardiovascular hospitalizations and associated expenses attributable to ambient carbon monoxide in Lanzhou, China: Scientific evidence for policy making.

OBJECTIVES: Air pollution is an important trigger of cardiovascular disease worldwide, but few studies have determined the cardiovascular disease, health, and economic burdens attributable to ambient carbon monoxide (CO). This study aimed to examine the association between CO and CVD hospitalizations, and quantified the attributable CVD hospitalizations, associated hospital stays and hospitalization costs for CO in Lanzhou, one of the most air-polluted Chinese cities historically. METHODS: Daily data on CVD hospitalizations, air pollutants, and weather records from 2013 to 2017 were obtained for Lanzhou, China. Generalized additive model with a quasi-Poisson link was used to model the association between CO and CVD hospitalizations, after controlling for other air pollutants, weather conditions, day of week, long-term trend, influenza and pneumonia incidence. The effects of CO on hospital stays and hospitalization expenses from CVD were also quantified. RESULTS: CO concentrations below the current Chinese ambient air quality standard had a significant impact on CVD hospitalizations. Each 1 mg/m3 increase in CO concentration on the present day and previous 4 days (lag 0-4) was associated with an 11% (95% confidence interval: 3%-20%) increase in total CVD hospitalizations. During the study period, CO was responsible for 11.74% of total CVD hospitalizations, equating to 62,792 inpatient days and 149 million RMB. Each adult patient on average spent approximately 5% of annual salary on medicine from CO-related CVD treatment during hospitalization. Maintaining the historical CO concentration within 1 to 3 mg/m3 could avert hundreds of total CVD hospitalizations and save millions of RMB annually in Lanzhou, China. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to low-level ambient CO concentration increased the risk of CVD hospitalizations and resulted in substantial health and economic burdens in Lanzhou, China. Our findings can be used for evidence-based practice and policy making to assess the cost-effectiveness of prevention measures.

Effects of Socio-Environmental Factors on Malaria Infection in Pakistan: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis.

The role of socio-environmental factors in shaping malaria dynamics is complex and inconsistent. Effects of socio-environmental factors on malaria in Pakistan at district level were examined. Annual malaria cases data were obtained from Directorate of Malaria Control Program, Pakistan. Meteorological data were supplied by Pakistan Meteorological Department. A major limitation was the use of yearly, rather than monthly/weekly malaria data in this study. Population data, socio-economic data and education score data were downloaded from internet. Bayesian conditional autoregressive model was used to find the statistical association of socio-environmental factors with malaria in Pakistan. From 136/146 districts in Pakistan, >750,000 confirmed malaria cases were included, over a three years' period (2013-2015). Socioeconomic status ((posterior mean value -3.965, (2.5% quintile, -6.297%), (97.5% quintile, -1.754%)) and human population density (-7.41 × 10-4, -0.001406%, -1.05 × 10-4 %) were inversely related, while minimum temperature (0.1398, 0.05275%, 0.2145%) was directly proportional to malaria in Pakistan during the study period. Spatial random effect maps presented that moderate relative risk (RR, 0.75 to 1.24) and high RR (1.25 to 1.99) clusters were scattered throughout the country, outnumbering the ones' with low RR (0.23 to 0.74). Socio-environmental variables influence annual malaria incidence in Pakistan and needs further evaluation.

Mortality burden attributable to heatwaves in Thailand: A systematic assessment incorporating evidence-based lag structure.

BACKGROUND: Available information on the acute and cumulative effects of heatwaves on cause-specific mortality in Thailand is scarce. OBJECTIVES: To quantify the acute and cumulative effects of heatwaves on mortality in Thailand, and assess heatwave-related mortality burden. METHODS: Thirty heatwave definitions were used and categorized into three groups: low intensity heatwaves (HWlow), middle intensity heatwaves (HWmiddle), and high intensity heatwaves (HWhigh). Time-series analyses were conducted to examine the acute and cumulative effects of HWlow, HWmiddle, and HWhigh on total and cause-specific mortality in 60 provinces of Thailand, incorporating an optimal lag for each cause and each province. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed to pool provincial estimates to national estimates for both acute and cumulative effects. Meta-regressions were conducted to identify the possible factors contributing to the spatial heterogeneity of heatwave vulnerability. RESULTS: The cumulative effects of HWlow and HWmiddle on total and cause-specific mortality were greater than HWhigh. Both acute and cumulative effects of HWlow, HWmiddle and HWhigh on neoplasms and certain infectious and parasitic diseases were among the highest across all death causes. Effects of heatwaves on deaths from endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases appeared to be longer-lasting, and effects of heatwaves on deaths from ischaemic heart diseases and pneumonia occurred more rapidly. Northern and Central Thailand were the regions vulnerable to heatwaves, and proportion of elderly population was the major driver behind the spatial heterogeneity of heatwave vulnerability. CONCLUSIONS: More attention needs to be paid to mild heatwaves. Future heatwave-related mortality burden due to neoplasms and infectious diseases in Thailand may increase as climate change continues.

Assessment of heat- and cold-related emergency department visits in cities of China and Australia: Population vulnerability and attributable burden.

BACKGROUND: Non-optimal ambient temperature has detrimental impacts on mortality worldwide, but little is known about the difference in population vulnerability to non-optimal temperature and temperature-related morbidity burden between developing and developed countries. OBJECTIVES: We estimated and compared the associations of emergency department visits (EDV) with non-optimal temperature in terms of risk trigger temperature, the average slope of exposure-risk function and attributable risk in 12 cities from China and Australia. METHODS: We modelled the associations of EDV with heat during warm season and with cold during cold season, separately, using generalized additive model. Population vulnerability within a given region was quantified with multiple risk trigger points including minimum risk temperature, increasing risk temperature and excessive risk temperature, and average coefficient of exposure-risk function. Fraction of EDV attributable to heat and cold was also calculated. RESULTS: We found large between- and within-country contrasts in the identified multiple risk trigger temperatures, with higher heat and cold trigger points, except excessive risk temperature, observed in Australia than in China. Heat was associated with a relative risk (RR) of 1.009 [95% confidence interval (CI):1.007, 1.011] in China, which accounted for 5.9% of EDV. Higher RR of heat was observed in Australia (1.014, 95% CI: 1.010, 1.018), responsible for 4.0% of EDV. For cold effects, the RR was similar between two countries, but the attributable fraction was higher in China (9.6%) than in Australia (1.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to heat and cold had adverse but divergent impacts on EDV in China and Australia. Further mitigation policy efforts incorporating region-specific population vulnerability to temperature impacts are necessary in both countries.

Heatwave and elderly mortality: An evaluation of death burden and health costs considering short-term mortality displacement.

BACKGROUND: A heatwave can be a devastating natural disaster to human health, and elderly people are particularly vulnerable. With the continuing rise in earth's surface temperature alongside the world's aging population, research on the mortality burden of heatwave for the older population remains relatively sparse. The potential magnitude of benefits of averting such deaths may be considerable. OBJECTIVES: This paper examined the short-term mortality displacement (or "harvesting") of heatwave, characterized the heatwave-mortality relationship, and estimated death burden and health costs attributable to heatwave among the elderly in Australia. METHODS: We collected daily data on the temperature and deaths of people aged ≥75 years in the five largest cities of Australia (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide), totaling 368,767 deaths in different periods between 1988 and 2011. A total of 15-tiered heatwave definitions, based on intensity (95th to 99th percentiles of temperature distribution) and duration (two or more consecutive days), were used to quantify heatwave effects, using time-series regression and random-effects meta-analysis. We calculated attributable deaths for each city and by different types of heatwave. Potential economic benefits in monetary terms were also estimated, considering that heat-related deaths are avoidable. RESULTS: Among the Australian elderly population, we found significant associations between heatwave and deaths, with raised mortality immediately in the first few days followed by lower-than-expected mortality. In general, heatwave was associated with an average death increase of 28% (95% confidence interval: 15% to 42%), and greater increases were mostly observed for more intense heatwaves across multiple megacities. During the study period, there were dozens to hundreds of deaths attributable to heatwave for each city, equating to an economic loss of several million Australian dollars every year. Although the estimated attributable deaths varied by heatwave intensity and duration, the pattern was not consistent across cities. CONCLUSIONS: Heatwave caused harvesting effects on mortality in the elderly population of Australia, and contributed to a substantial amount of death burden and indirect financial costs. To lessen the health impacts of heatwave in the affected regions, effective heatwave early warning systems and interventions targeted at the elderly population could be beneficial, both now and in the future.

Socio-demographic, ecological factors and dengue infection trends in Australia.

Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia. This study has explored the spatio-temporal trends of dengue and potential socio- demographic and ecological determinants in Australia. Data on dengue cases, socio-demographic, climatic and land use types for the period January 1999 to December 2010 were collected from Australian National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, respectively. Descriptive and linear regression analyses were performed to observe the spatio-temporal trends of dengue, socio-demographic and ecological factors in Australia. A total of 5,853 dengue cases (both local and overseas acquired) were recorded across Australia between January 1999 and December 2010. Most the cases (53.0%) were reported from Queensland, followed by New South Wales (16.5%). Dengue outbreak was highest (54.2%) during 2008-2010. A highest percentage of overseas arrivals (29.9%), households having rainwater tanks (33.9%), Indigenous population (27.2%), separate houses (26.5%), terrace house types (26.9%) and economically advantage people (42.8%) were also observed during 2008-2010. Regression analyses demonstrate that there was an increasing trend of dengue incidence, potential socio-ecological factors such as overseas arrivals, number of households having rainwater tanks, housing types and land use types (e.g. intensive uses and production from dryland agriculture). Spatial variation of socio-demographic factors was also observed in this study. In near future, significant increase of temperature was also projected across Australia. The projected increased temperature as well as increased socio-ecological trend may pose a future threat to the local transmission of dengue in other parts of Australia if Aedes mosquitoes are being established. Therefore, upgraded mosquito and disease surveillance at different ports should be in place to reduce the chance of mosquitoes and dengue cases being imported into all over Australia.

Climate change, food, water and population health in China.

Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change's most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially - although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources - e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change - e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases - are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population's resilience to the risks of climate variability and change.

Le changement climatique anthropique est à l'origine d'une augmentation de la fréquence, de la durée et de l'intensité de phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes. Ces phénomènes ont déjà eu des conséquences notables sur le développement socioéconomique et la santé des populations. Les effets les plus marqués du changement climatique se manifesteront certainement au niveau de l'alimentation, des systèmes sanitaires et de l'eau. Cet article examine la manière dont le changement climatique affectera l'alimentation, la santé humaine et l'eau en Chine. Selon les prévisions, les effets globaux du changement climatique, la conversion des terres et la diminution de l'eau disponible pourraient considérablement réduire la production alimentaire chinoise, bien que de telles prévisions comportent inévitablement un certain degré d'incertitude. Le changement climatique aura probablement des conséquences importantes sur les ressources en eau, avec par exemple des modifications des régimes de précipitations ou encore des sécheresses et des inondations plus fréquentes dans certaines régions de Chine. Ces effets mettront indubitablement en péril la santé et le bien-être de nombreuses communautés. À court terme, la santé des populations en Chine devrait se trouver affectée par l'augmentation des températures de l'air et de la pollution. Sur le moyen et le long terme, cependant, ce sont les effets indirects du changement climatique (par ex., changements au niveau de la disponibilité des denrées alimentaires, de l'eau et des lieux de résidence, dégradation de la santé mentale et du bien-être des personnes, changements dans la répartition et la saisonnalité des maladies infectieuses) qui devraient prendre de l'importance. Les conséquences potentiellement catastrophiques du changement climatique ne peuvent être évitées que si tous les pays œuvrent ensemble en vue de réduire sensiblement les émissions de gaz à effet de serre et d'augmenter la résilience de la population mondiale face aux risques de variabilité et de changement climatiques.

Parece que el cambio climático antropogénico está aumentando la frecuencia, duración e intensidad de fenómenos meteorológicos extremos. Tales fenómenos ya han afectado enormemente el desarrollo socioeconómico y la salud pública. Los efectos más profundos del cambio climático tienen posibilidades de afectar a la alimentación, los sistemas sanitarios y el agua. En este artículo se explora cómo influirá el cambio climático en la alimentación, la salud pública y el agua en China. Las previsiones indican que los efectos generales del cambio climático, la conversión del suelo y la menor disponibilidad de agua podrían reducir la producción de alimentación en China de forma sustancial, a pesar de que la incertidumbre es inevitable en dichas previsiones. Es probable que el cambio climático afecte de manera importante a los recursos de agua, por ejemplo, cambios en los patrones de las precipitaciones y aumentos de la frecuencia de las sequías y las inundaciones en algunas zonas de China. Sin duda, tales impactos amenazarán la salud pública y el bienestar de muchas comunidades. A corto plazo, la salud pública china se verá perjudicada por los aumentos de la temperatura del aire y la contaminación. Sin embargo, de medio a largo plazo, es probable que aumente la importancia de los efectos indirectos del cambio climático, como los cambios de la disponibilidad de alimentos, refugio y agua, una reducción del bienestar y la salud mental y cambios en la propagación y estacionalidad de enfermedades infecciosas. Las posibles consecuencias catastróficas del cambio climático pueden evitarse únicamente si todos los países trabajan juntos para reducir en gran medida la emisión de los conocidos gases de efecto invernadero y para aumentar la resistencia de la población mundial ante los riesgos de la variabilidad y el cambio climáticos.

Risk assessment of malaria in land border regions of China in the context of malaria elimination.

BACKGROUND: Cross-border malaria transmission poses a challenge for countries to achieve and maintain malaria elimination. Because of a dramatic increase of cross-border population movement between China and 14 neighbouring countries, the malaria epidemic risk in China's land border regions needs to be understood. METHODS: In this study, individual case-based epidemiological data on malaria in the 136 counties of China with international land borders, from 2011 to 2014, were extracted from the National Infectious Disease Information System. The Plasmodium species, seasonality, spatiotemporal distribution and changing features of imported and indigenous cases were analysed using descriptive spatial and temporal methods. RESULTS: A total of 1948 malaria cases were reported, with 1406 (72.2%) imported cases and 542 (27.8%) indigenous cases. Plasmodium vivax is the predominant species, with 1536 malaria cases occurrence (78.9%), following by Plasmodium falciparum (361 cases, 18.5%), and the others (51 cases, 2.6%). The magnitude and geographic distribution of malaria in land border counties shrunk sharply during the elimination period. Imported malaria cases were with a peak of 546 cases in 2011, decreasing yearly in the following years. The number of counties with imported cases decreased from 28 counties in 2011 to 26 counties in 2014. Indigenous malaria cases presented a markedly decreasing trend, with 319 indigenous cases in 2011 reducing to only 33 indigenous cases in 2014. The number of counties with indigenous cases reduced from 26 counties in 2011 to 10 counties in 2014. However, several bordering counties of Yunnan province adjacent to Myanmar reported indigenous malaria cases in the four consecutive years from 2011 to 2014. CONCLUSIONS: The scale and extent of malaria occurrence in the international land border counties of China decreased dramatically during the elimination period. However, several high-risk counties, especially along the China-Myanmar border, still face a persistent risk of malaria introduction and transmission. The study emphasizes the importance and urgency of cross-border cooperation between neighbouring countries to jointly face malaria threats to elimination goals.

Determinants of patient survival during the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease outbreak in Bong County, Liberia.

BACKGROUND: The unprecedented size of the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa has allowed for a more extensive characterization of the clinical presentation and management of this disease. In this study, we report the trends in morbidity, mortality, and determinants of patient survival as EVD spread into Bong County, Liberia. METHODS: An analysis of suspected, probable, or confirmed cases of EVD (n = 607) reported to the Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MOHSW) between March 23rd and December 31st 2014 was conducted. The likelihood of infection given exposure factors was determined using logistic regression in individuals with a definitive diagnosis by RT-PCR (n = 321). The risk of short-term mortality (30 days) given demographic factors, clinical symptoms, and highest level of treatment received was assessed with Cox regression and survival analyses (n = 391). RESULTS: The overall mortality rate was 53.5 % (95 % CI: 49 %, 58 %) and decreased as access to medical treatment increased. Those who reported contact with another EVD case were more likely to be infected (OR: 5.7), as were those who attended a funeral (OR: 3.9). Mortality increased with age (P < 0.001) and was higher in males compared to females (P =0.006). Fever (HR: 6.63), vomiting (HR: 1.93), diarrhea (HR: 1.99), and unexplained bleeding (HR: 2.17) were associated with increased mortality. After adjusting for age, hospitalized patients had a 74 % reduction in the risk of short term mortality (P < 0.001 AHR: 0.26; 95 % CI AHR: 0.18, 0.37), compared to those not given medical intervention. CONCLUSION: Even treatment with only basic supportive care such as intravenous rehydration therapy was able to significantly improve patient survival in suspected, probable, or confirmed EVD cases.

Projecting excess emergency department visits and associated costs in Brisbane, Australia, under population growth and climate change scenarios.

The direct and indirect health effects of increasingly warmer temperatures are likely to further burden the already overcrowded hospital emergency departments (EDs). Using current trends and estimates in conjunction with future population growth and climate change scenarios, we show that the increased number of hot days in the future can have a considerable impact on EDs, adding to their workload and costs. The excess number of visits in 2030 is projected to range between 98-336 and 42-127 for younger and older groups, respectively. The excess costs in 2012-13 prices are estimated to range between AU$51,000-184,000 (0-64) and AU$27,000-84,000 (65+). By 2060, these estimates will increase to 229-2300 and 145-1188 at a cost of between AU$120,000-1,200,000 and AU$96,000-786,000 for the respective age groups. Improvements in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to generate synergistic health co-benefits and reduce the impact on frontline health services.

The potential impact of climate change and ultraviolet radiation on vaccine-preventable infectious diseases and immunization service delivery system.

Climate change and solar ultraviolet radiation may affect vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPID), the human immune response process and the immunization service delivery system. We systematically reviewed the scientific literature and identified 37 relevant publications. Our study shows that climate variability and ultraviolet radiation may potentially affect VPID and the immunization delivery system through modulating vector reproduction and vaccination effectiveness, possibly influencing human immune response systems to the vaccination, and disturbing immunization service delivery. Further research is needed to determine these affects on climate-sensitive VPID and on human immune response to common vaccines. Such research will facilitate the development and delivery of optimal vaccination programs for target populations, to meet the goal of disease control and elimination.