The influence of COVID-19 on intertemporal choices in the health and economy domains.

Background: With the spread of COVID-19, concerns regarding its adverse effects have arisen. Based on affect regulation theory and construal level theory, this study explored how COVID-19 affects intertemporal choice in the health and economy domains, self-other differences for intertemporal choice were also inspected. The study examined whether psychological safety can moderate the relationship between COVID-19 and intertemporal choice. Methods: A 2 (COVID-19 status: pre-COVID-19, during-COVID-19) × 2 (decision maker role: decision for self, decision for others) × 2 (domain: health, economy) three-factor hybrid experiment was employed. Results: (1) Individuals in during-COVID-19 condition preferred more immediate options. (2) Delayed options were preferred more in the health domain. Preference for immediate money options enhanced during than before COVID-19. However, COVID-19 status did not affect choices related to health. (3) Delayed options were preferred more when making intertemporal choices for others than for oneself under the pre-COVID-19 condition. Self-other differences for intertemporal choice disappeared during COVID-19. (4) Psychological safety moderated the effect of COVID-19 on intertemporal choice. Conclusions: During COVID-19, individuals' impulsive preference of intertemporal choice increased. COVID-19 affected intertemporal choice regarding economy and the self-other differences for intertemporal choice. Psychological safety could buffer the effect of COVID-19 on intertemporal choice. Value: This study can provide empirical evidence to affect regulation theory and level of explanation theory as well as guide individuals in making scientific decisions in health and economic domains under public health emergencies.

Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk.

Evidence shows a continuing increase in the frequency and severity of global heatwaves1,2, raising concerns about the future impacts of climate change and the associated socioeconomic costs3,4. Here we develop a disaster footprint analytical framework by integrating climate, epidemiological and hybrid input-output and computable general equilibrium global trade models to estimate the midcentury socioeconomic impacts of heat stress. We consider health costs related to heat exposure, the value of heat-induced labour productivity loss and indirect losses due to economic disruptions cascading through supply chains. Here we show that the global annual incremental gross domestic product loss increases exponentially from 0.03 ± 0.01 (SSP 245)-0.05 ± 0.03 (SSP 585) percentage points during 2030-2040 to 0.05 ± 0.01-0.15 ± 0.04 percentage points during 2050-2060. By 2060, the expected global economic losses reach a total of 0.6-4.6% with losses attributed to health loss (37-45%), labour productivity loss (18-37%) and indirect loss (12-43%) under different shared socioeconomic pathways. Small- and medium-sized developing countries suffer disproportionately from higher health loss in South-Central Africa (2.1 to 4.0 times above global average) and labour productivity loss in West Africa and Southeast Asia (2.0-3.3 times above global average). The supply-chain disruption effects are much more widespread with strong hit to those manufacturing-heavy countries such as China and the USA, leading to soaring economic losses of 2.7 ± 0.7% and 1.8 ± 0.5%, respectively.

Assessing the economic impacts of a perfect storm of extreme weather, pandemic control, and export restrictions: A methodological construct.

This article investigates the economic impacts of a multi-disaster mix comprising extreme weather, such as flooding, pandemic control, and export restrictions, dubbed a "perfect storm." We develop a compound-hazard impact model that improves on the ARIO model by considering the economic interplay between different types of hazardous events. The model considers simultaneously cross-regional substitution and production specialization, which can influence the resilience of the economy to multiple shocks. We build scenarios to investigate economic impacts when a flood and a pandemic lockdown collide and how these are affected by the timing, duration, and intensity/strictness of each shock. In addition, we examine how export restrictions during a pandemic impact the economic losses and recovery, especially when there is the specialization of production of key sectors. The results suggest that an immediate, stricter but shorter pandemic control policy would help to reduce the economic costs inflicted by a perfect storm, and regional or global cooperation is needed to address the spillover effects of such compound events, especially in the context of the risks from deglobalization.

Selectively recommend 18F-FDG PET/CT for patients with de novo nasopharyngeal carcinoma in endemic areas.

INTRODUCTION: To identify the subset of patients with de novo nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) for whom [18F] fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography and computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) should be recommended, and to determine whether PET/CT is a cost-effective decision for precise M staging in endemic areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis of data of 4469 patients diagnosed with de novo NPC between January 2014 and December 2019. The detection rate of distant metastasis was compared between different groups. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analysis was applied to identify the risk factors for distant metastasis. The cost-effectiveness of the diagnostic strategies was assessed. RESULTS: The detection rate of distant metastasis in the whole cohort was 5.46%. In multivariate analysis, male sex, T3-4 stage, N2-3 stage, and high plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA (≥ 14,650 copies/mL) were risk factors for distant metastases. NPC patients with T3-4 stage combined with N2-3 stage, high EBV DNA combined with male sex, or N2-3 stage combined with high EBV DNA were defined as recommended group with relatively higher tendency for metastasis. Distant metastasis incidence in recommended group and unrecommended group were 10.25% and 1.75%, respectively (P < 0.001). In the recommended group, PET/CT significantly improved the detection rate of distant metastasis (13.25% vs 9.02%, P = 0.005). Cost-effectiveness analysis revealed that additional cost for every one percent increase in distant metastasis detection rate was $22,785.58 in the recommended group (< Willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $32,700.00) and $310,912.90 in the unrecommended group. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with de novo NPC, the tendency for metastasis can be predicted based on clinical parameters. 18F-FDG PET/CT should be selectively recommended for the subset of patients with a relatively higher tendency for metastasis.

The effects of social comparison and depressive mood on adolescent social decision-making.

BACKGROUND: Based on social comparison theory, two experiments were conducted to explore the effects of depression and social comparison on adolescents, using the ultimatum game (UG). METHODS: Before the formal experiment began, a preliminary experiment tested the effectiveness of social comparison settings. This study used the UG paradigm to explore adolescents' social decision-making in the context of gain and loss through two experiments. These experiments were designed as a 2 (group: depressive mood group, normal mood group) × 2 (social comparison: upward, downward) × 3 (fairness level: fair 5:5, unfair 3:7, extremely unfair 1:9) three-factor hybrid study. RESULTS: (1) The fairer the proposal was, the higher the sense of fairness participants felt, and the higher their acceptance rate. (2) The acceptance rate of the participants for downward social comparison was significantly higher than that for upward social comparison, but there was no difference in fairness perception between the two social comparisons. (3) Under the context of gain, the acceptance rate of the depressive mood group was higher than that of the normal mood group, but there was no difference in the acceptance rate between the depressive mood group and the normal mood group under the loss context. Depressive mood participants had more feelings of unfairness in the contexts of both gain and loss. (4) The effects of depressive mood, social comparison and the fairness level of distribution on social decision-making interact. CONCLUSIONS: The interaction of social comparison, depressive mood and proposal type demonstrates that besides one's emotion, cognitive biases and social factors can also have an effect on social decision-making. These findings indicate that behavioral decision boosting may provide an avenue for appropriate interventions in helping to guide adolescents to make social decisions.

Flood Footprint Assessment: A Multiregional Case of 2009 Central European Floods.

Hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in intensity and frequency in last decades, with Europe as one of the most affected areas. This accounts for considerable economic losses in the region. Regional adaptation strategies for costs minimization require a comprehensive assessment of the disasters' economic impacts at a multiple-region scale. This article adapts the flood footprint method for multiple-region assessment of total economic impact and applies it to the 2009 Central European Floods event. The flood footprint is an impact accounting framework based on the input-output methodology to economically assess the physical damage (direct) and production shortfalls (indirect) within a region and wider economic networks, caused by a climate disaster. Here, the model is extended through the capital matrix, to enable diverse recovery strategies. According to the results, indirect losses represent a considerable proportion of the total costs of a natural disaster, and most of them occur in nonhighly directly impacted industries. For the 2009 Central European Floods, the indirect losses represent 65% out of total, and 70% of it comes from four industries: business services, manufacture general, construction, and commerce. Additionally, results show that more industrialized economies would suffer more indirect losses than less-industrialized ones, in spite of being less vulnerable to direct shocks. This may link to their specific economic structures of high capital-intensity and strong interindustrial linkages.

Validation of a low-cost, carbon dioxide-based cryoablation system for percutaneous tumor ablation.

Breast cancer rates are rising in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), yet there is a lack of accessible and cost-effective treatment. As a result, the cancer burden and death rates are highest in LMICs. In an effort to meet this need, our work presents the design and feasibility of a low-cost cryoablation system using widely-available carbon dioxide as the only consumable. This system uses an 8-gauge outer-diameter needle and Joule-Thomson expansion to percutaneously necrose tissue with cryoablation. Bench top experiments characterized temperature dynamics in ultrasound gel demonstrated that isotherms greater than 2 cm were formed. Further, this system was applied to mammary tumors in an in vivo rat model and necrosis was verified by histopathology. Finally, freezing capacity under a large heat load was assessed with an in vivo porcine study, where volumes of necrosis greater than 1.5 cm in diameter confirmed by histopathology were induced in a highly perfused liver after two 7-minute freeze cycles. These results demonstrate the feasibility of a carbon-dioxide based cryoablation system for improving solid tumor treatment options in resource-constrained environments.

Effects of abusive supervision on employees' innovative behavior: The role of job insecurity and locus of control.

Drawing on the Conservation of Resources Theory by Hobfoll, we examined the relationships between abusive supervision, job insecurity, locus of control, and employees' innovative behavior. Using self-reported data collected from employees among four enterprises in China (N = 641), we found that abusive supervision was positively correlated with job insecurity. In contrast, both job insecurity and abusive supervision were negatively correlated with employees' innovative behavior, with the impact of abusive supervision on innovative behavior being mediated by its effect on job insecurity. Having an external locus of control that served as a buffering factor for employees, mitigating the relationship between abusive supervision and job insecurity. These findings complement the existing research on the impacts of abusive leadership, providing practical information for enterprises on how to enhance levels of innovation and vitality among employees.