Community-centered Disease Severity Assessment of Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Fatty Liver Disease.

Background and Aims: Disease severity across the different diagnostic categories of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) remains elusive. This study assessed the fibrosis stages and features of MAFLD between different items. We also aimed to investigate the associations between advanced fibrosis and risk factors. Methods: This multicenter cross-sectional study enrolled adults participating in liver disease screening in the community. Patients were stratified following MAFLD diagnostic criteria, to group A (395 patients) for type 2 diabetes, group B (1,818 patients) for body mass index (BMI)>23 kg/m2, and group C (44 patients) for BMI≤23 kg/m2 with at least two metabolic factors. Advanced fibrosis was defined as a fibrosis-4 index>2.67. Results: Between 2009 and 2020, 1,948 MAFLD patients were recruited, including 478 with concomitant liver diseases. Advanced fibrosis was observed in 125 patients. A significantly larger proportion of patients in group C (25.0%) than in group A (7.6%) and group B (5.8%) had advanced fibrosis (p<0.01). Logistic regression analysis found that hepatitis B virus (HBV)/hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection (odds ratio [OR]: 12.14, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.04-36.52; p<0.01), HCV infection (OR: 7.87, 95% CI: 4.78-12.97; p<0.01), group C (OR: 6.00, 95% CI: 2.53-14.22; p<0.01), and TC/LDL-C (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.06-1.38; p<0.01) were significant predictors of advanced fibrosis. Conclusions: A higher proportion of lean MAFLD patients with metabolic abnormalities had advanced fibrosis. HCV infection was significantly associated with advanced fibrosis.

Health economic evaluation of strategies to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul disease focus of Chad.

Human African trypanosomiasis, caused by the gambiense subspecies of Trypanosoma brucei (gHAT), is a deadly parasitic disease transmitted by tsetse. Partners worldwide have stepped up efforts to eliminate the disease, and the Chadian government has focused on the previously high-prevalence setting of Mandoul. In this study, we evaluate the economic efficiency of the intensified strategy that was put in place in 2014 aimed at interrupting the transmission of gHAT, and we make recommendations on the best way forward based on both epidemiological projections and cost-effectiveness. In our analysis, we use a dynamic transmission model fit to epidemiological data from Mandoul to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of combinations of active screening, improved passive screening (defined as an expansion of the number of health posts capable of screening for gHAT), and vector control activities (the deployment of Tiny Targets to control the tsetse vector). For cost-effectiveness analyses, our primary outcome is disease burden, denominated in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and costs, denominated in 2020 US$. Although active and passive screening have enabled more rapid diagnosis and accessible treatment in Mandoul, the addition of vector control provided good value-for-money (at less than $750/DALY averted) which substantially increased the probability of reaching the 2030 elimination target for gHAT as set by the World Health Organization. Our transmission modelling and economic evaluation suggest that the gains that have been made could be maintained by passive screening. Our analysis speaks to comparative efficiency, and it does not take into account all possible considerations; for instance, any cessation of ongoing active screening should first consider that substantial surveillance activities will be critical to verify the elimination of transmission and to protect against the possible importation of infection from neighbouring endemic foci.

A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a deadly vector-borne, neglected tropical disease found in West and Central Africa targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) by 2030. The recent pandemic has illustrated how it can be important to quantify the impact that unplanned disruption to programme activities may have in achieving EoT. We used a previously developed model of gHAT fitted to data from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the country with the highest global case burden, to explore how interruptions to intervention activities, due to e.g. COVID-19, Ebola or political instability, could impact progress towards EoT and gHAT burden. We simulated transmission and reporting dynamics in 38 regions within Kwilu, Mai Ndombe and Kwango provinces under six interruption scenarios lasting for nine or twenty-one months. Included in the interruption scenarios are the cessation of active screening in all scenarios and a reduction in passive detection rates and a delay or suspension of vector control deployments in some scenarios. Our results indicate that, even under the most extreme 21-month interruption scenario, EoT is not predicted to be delayed by more than one additional year compared to the length of the interruption. If existing vector control deployments continue, we predict no delay in achieving EoT even when both active and passive screening activities are interrupted. If passive screening remains as functional as in 2019, we expect a marginal negative impact on transmission, however this depends on the strength of passive screening in each health zone. We predict a pronounced increase in additional gHAT disease burden (morbidity and mortality) in many health zones if both active and passive screening were interrupted compared to the interruption of active screening alone. The ability to continue existing vector control during medical activity interruption is also predicted to avert a moderate proportion of disease burden.

Decision tree algorithm predicts hepatocellular carcinoma among chronic hepatitis C patients following viral eradication.

Successful eradication of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) cannot eliminate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Next-generation RNA sequencing provides comprehensive genomic insights into the pathogenesis of HCC. Artificial intelligence has opened a new era in precision medicine. This study integrated clinical features and genetic biomarkers to establish a machine learning-based HCC model following viral eradication. A prospective cohort of 55 HCV patients with advanced fibrosis, who achieved a sustained virologic response after antiviral therapy, was enrolled. The primary outcome was the occurrence of HCC. The genomic signatures of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were determined by RNA sequencing at baseline and 24 weeks after end-of-treatment. Machine learning algorithms were implemented to extract the predictors of HCC. HCC occurred in 8 of the 55 patients, with an annual incidence of 2.7%. Pretreatment PBMC DEFA1B, HBG2, ADCY4, and posttreatment TAS1R3, ABCA3, and FOSL1 genes were significantly downregulated, while the pretreatment ANGPTL6 gene was significantly upregulated in the HCC group compared to that in the non-HCC group. A gene score derived from the result of the decision tree algorithm can identify HCC with an accuracy of 95.7%. Gene score = TAS1R3 (≥0.63 FPKM, yes/no = 0/1) + FOSL1 (≥0.27 FPKM, yes/no = 0/1) + ABCA3 (≥2.40 FPKM, yes/no = 0/1). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that this gene score was the most important predictor of HCC (hazard ratio = 2.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.06-5.36, P = 0.036). Combining the gene score and fibrosis-4 index, a nomogram was constructed to predict the probability of HCC with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve up to 0.950 (95% CI = 0.888-1.000, P = 7.0 × 10-5). Decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram had a net benefit in HCC detection. The calibration curve showed that the nomogram had optimal concordance between the predicted and actual HCC probabilities. In conclusion, down-regulated posttreatment PBMC TAS1R3, ABCA3, and FOSL1 expression were significantly correlated with HCC development after HCV eradication. Decision-tree-based algorithms can refine the assessment of HCC risk for personalized HCC surveillance.

Cost-effectiveness of sleeping sickness elimination campaigns in five settings of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is marked for elimination of transmission by 2030, but the disease persists in several low-income countries. We couple transmission and health outcomes models to examine the cost-effectiveness of four gHAT elimination strategies in five settings - spanning low- to high-risk - of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Alongside passive screening in fixed health facilities, the strategies include active screening at average or intensified coverage levels, alone or with vector control with a scale-back algorithm when no cases are reported for three consecutive years. In high or moderate-risk settings, costs of gHAT strategies are primarily driven by active screening and, if used, vector control. Due to the cessation of active screening and vector control, most investments (75-80%) are made by 2030 and vector control might be cost-saving while ensuring elimination of transmission. In low-risk settings, costs are driven by passive screening, and minimum-cost strategies consisting of active screening and passive screening lead to elimination of transmission by 2030 with high probability.

Economic evaluation of disease elimination: An extension to the net-benefit framework and application to human African trypanosomiasis.

The global health community has earmarked a number of diseases for elimination or eradication, and these goals have often been praised on the premise of long-run cost savings. However, decision makers must contend with a multitude of demands on health budgets in the short or medium term, and costs per case often rise as the burden of a disease falls, rendering such efforts beyond the cost-effective use of scarce resources. In addition, these decisions must be made in the presence of substantial uncertainty regarding the feasibility and costs of elimination or eradication efforts. Therefore, analytical frameworks are necessary to consider the additional effort for reaching global goals, like elimination or eradication, that are beyond the cost-effective use of country resources. We propose a modification to the net-benefit framework to consider the implications of switching from an optimal strategy, in terms of cost-per-burden averted, to a strategy with a higher likelihood of meeting the global target of elimination or eradication. We illustrate the properties of our framework by considering the economic case of efforts to eliminate the transmission of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), a vector-borne, parasitic disease in West and Central Africa, by 2030.

Hepatitis B-related outcomes following direct-acting antiviral therapy in Taiwanese patients with chronic HBV/HCV co-infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The outcome of HBV infection, including the dynamics of HBsAg and HBV virological reactivation, among patients coinfected with HCV receiving direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) remains unclear. Thus, we aimed to analyze HBV-related outcomes in these patients. METHODS: Serial HBsAg and HBV DNA levels were measured in 79 HBV/HCV-coinfected patients receiving DAAs (13 receiving anti-HBV nucleot(s)ide analog [NUC] therapy simultaneously). The endpoints included HBsAg dynamics and seroclearance, HBV reactivation (HBV DNA >1 log increase or >100 IU/ml if undetectable at baseline) and HBV-related clinical reactivation. RESULTS: HBsAg levels declined from a median of 73.3 IU/ml at baseline to 16.2 IU/ml at the end-of-DAA treatment and increased to 94.1 IU/ml at 12 months post-treatment. During a mean 11.1-months of follow-up, 8 (10.1%) patients experienced HBsAg seroclearance and 30 (38.0%) HBV reactivation (12-month cumulative incidence, 10.3% and 40.4%, respectively). Patients with pre-treatment HBsAg ≤10 IU/ml had a significantly higher rate of HBsAg seroclearance (hazard ratio [HR] 8.52; 95% CI 1.048-69.312) and lower risk of HBV reactivation than those with pre-treatment HBsAg >10 IU/ml (HR 2.88; 95% CI 1.057-7.844) in multivariate analyses. Six patients (4 cirrhotics) not receiving NUC therapy experienced HBV-related clinical reactivation; 3 of the 4 cirrhotics developed liver failure and 2 died despite immediate NUC therapy. Compared to untreated HBV-monoinfected patients, HBV/HCV-coinfected patients without NUC prophylaxis had a similar rate of HBsAg seroclearance, but a significantly higher risk of HBV reactivation following DAA therapy (HR 6.59; 95% CI 2.488-17.432). CONCLUSIONS: DAA-treated HBV/HCV-coinfected patients had significantly higher rates of HBV seroclearance, particularly among those with low pre-treatment HBsAg titer, but were at higher risk of HBV reactivation, particularly among those with higher pre-treatment HBsAg titer. Prophylactic anti-HBV therapy is essential for cirrhotic patients, irrespective of baseline HBV DNA levels. LAY SUMMARY: We studied outcomes relating to hepatitis B virus (HBV) in patients coinfected with both hepatitis B and C. Patients receiving direct-acting antiviral treatment for hepatitis C were more likely to experience seroclearance (or functional cure of HBV), but were also more likely to experience HBV reactivation, which can lead to hepatitis, liver failure and death. In coinfected cirrhotic patients being treated for HCV, prophylactic treatment for HBV is mandatory.

Identification of treatment-experienced hepatitis C patients with poor cost-effectiveness of pegylated interferon plus ribavirin from a real-world cohort.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Pegylated interferon (PegIFN) plus ribavirin (RBV) combination therapy has been the standard of care since 2002. Although a better viral response has been achieved among chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients in Taiwan, approximately 25% of hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1 (G1) patients and 15% of G2 patients failed to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) at the first therapy. The actual cost-effectiveness of the retreatment remains elusive. The present study conducted a real-world cost-effectiveness analysis of a large cohort among different pre-specified subgroups of treatment-experienced CHC patients. METHODS: A total of 117 patients with CHC who failed to achieve SVR at the first IFN-based therapy and received a second IFN-based therapy were enrolled. The inpatient and outpatient costs were acquired from National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan. The related medical care costs per treatment and per SVR were calculated. RESULTS: We demonstrated that the average cost per SVR achieved was $13,722 in treatment-experienced CHC patients. Especially, patients with HCV G1 infection, baseline viral loads > 400,000 IU/mL, advanced hepatic fibrosis, not achieving a rapid viral response at week 4 or complete early viral response at week 12, had poorer cost-effectiveness for PegIFN/RBV retherapy, ranging from around $15,520 to as high as $72,546 per SVR achieved. CONCLUSION: In the current study, we explored the real-world cost-effectiveness data of PegIFN/RBV for different subgroups of treatment-experienced HCV patients. These findings provide information for policy-makers for making decisions on treatment strategies of costly direct-acting antiviral agents for retreating CHC patients.

Identification of groups with poor cost-effectiveness of peginterferon plus ribavirin for naïve hepatitis C patients with a real-world cohort and database.

BACKGROUND: For decades, peginterferon and ribavirin (PegIFN/RBV) have been the standard-of-care for chronic hepatitis C virus (CHC) infection. However, the actual cost-effectiveness of this therapy remains unclear. We purposed to explore the real-world cost effectiveness for subgroups of treatment-naïve CHC patients with PegIFN/RBV therapy in a large real-world cohort using a whole population database. METHODS: A total of 1809 treatment-naïve chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients (829 HCV genotype 1 [G1] and 980 HCV G2) treated with PegIFN/RBV therapies were linked to the National Health Insurance Research Database, covering the entire population of Taiwan from 1998 to 2013 to collect the total medical-care expenses of outpatient (antiviral agents, nonantiviral agents, laboratory, and consultation costs) and inpatient (medication, logistic, laboratory, and intervention costs) visits. The costs per treatment and the cost per sustained virological response (SVR) achieved were calculated. RESULTS: The average medical-care cost was USD $4823 (±$2984) per treatment and $6105 (±$3778) per SVR achieved. With SVR rates of 68.6% and 87.8%, the cost/SVR was significantly higher in G1 than those in G2 patients, respectively ($8285 vs $4663, P < .001). Treatment-naïve G1 patients of old ages, those with advanced fibrosis, high viral loads, or interleukin-28B unfavorable genotypes, or those without a rapid virological response (RVR: undetectable HCV RNA at week 4), or those with complete early virological response (cEVR: undetectable HCV RNA at week 12). Treatment-naïve G2 patients with high viral loads or without RVR or cEVR incurred significantly higher costs per SVR than their counterparts. The cost/SVR was extremely high among patients without RVR and in patients without cEVR. CONCLUSION: We investigated the real-world cost effectiveness data for different subgroups of treatment-naïve HCV patients with PegIFN/RBV therapies, which could provide useful, informative evidence for making decisions regarding future therapeutic strategies comprising costly direct-acting antivirals.

A real-world impact of cost-effectiveness of pegylated interferon/ribavarin regimens on treatment-naïve chronic hepatitis C patients in Taiwan.

Treatments with pegylated interferon/ribavirin (PEG-IFN/RBV) has been standard-of-care in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) (CHC) infection and reimbursed in Taiwan. However, the actual cost-effectiveness remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate a real-world cost-effectiveness for CHC patients treated with PEG-IFN/RBV by using a clinical cohort with linkage to the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan. The total and itemized medical-care expenses of outpatient visits of 117 treatment-naïve CHC patients with linkage to the two million sampling of the National Health Insurance Research Database were collected. Four components of costs were assessed, including antiviral agents, nonantiviral agents, laboratory testing and consultation costs. The cost per sustained virological response (SVR) achieved was calculated to evaluate the cost-effectiveness. The average cost per treatment in 117 naïve Taiwanese CHC patients was $4620. With an overall SVR rate of 78.6%, the average cost per SVR was $5878. The average medical-care cost per treatment for 52 Genotype 1 (G1) patients was $5133, including $4420 for antivirals, $380 for nonantivirals, $302 for laboratory, and $78 for consultation, compared to $4209, $3635, $317, $233, and $56 for 65 Genotype 2 (G2) patients. With an SVR rate at 67.3% for G1 and 87.7% for G2 patients, the cost per SVR achieved was significantly higher in G1 patients than those in G2 patients ($7627 vs. $4799, p = 0.001). In the current study, we provided the real-world cost-effectiveness of PEG-IFN/RBV for treatment-naïve CHC patients. The genotype-specific cost-effectiveness could enhance decision-making for policy-makers in the coming era of directly acting antiviral therapy.