How different are accuracies of clinicians' prediction of survival by assessment methods?

BACKGROUND: No standardized method has been established for evaluating the accuracy of a clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS). Till now, no study has compared the accuracy of CPS according to the evaluation methods using the same dataset. We aimed to examine the accuracy of CPS by different statistical approaches in patients with far-advanced cancer. METHODS: The current study was a secondary analysis of an international multicenter prospective cohort study. Newly admitted patients with advanced cancer were enrolled in palliative care units (PCUs) in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. We obtained the temporal CPS at enrollment. The patients were classified into groups of days (≤7 days) and weeks (≤30 days) based on CPS and actual survival (AS). We evaluated the accuracy of CPS by the distribution, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCs), and an estimate ±33% of AS. RESULTS: A total of 2,571 patients were assessed and admitted in 37 PCUs between January 2017 and September 2018. As for the "days" category, the distribution of AS is larger than that of CPS, however, the results are reversed in the "weeks" category. The AUROCs showed over 80% discrimination for both the "days" and "weeks" categories. Accurate CPS within ±33% of AS was approximately 30% in both "days" and "weeks" categories. CONCLUSIONS: We showed a discrepancy of approximately 30-80% in the accuracy of CPS among three different analysis methods: distribution, AUROC, and AS comparison. Considering the low accuracy of AS comparisons, clinicians should provide a wide range of survival time. CPS was able to effectively discriminate and may be useful for risk stratification.

Pretravel preparation and factors associated with willingness to seek pretravel consultation among Taiwanese travelers.

BACKGROUND: Although globalization promotes economic development, cross-border infectious disease transmission is still a serious threat to health. Taiwan is geographically close to Southeast and South Asia, but the needs and expectations of Taiwanese travelers with regard to travel medicine are still largely unknown. This study aimed to clarify the pretravel preparations, needs, willingness to seek pretravel consultation, and factors associated with willingness, in order to provide valuable information for improvement of healthcare service. METHODS: Data were collected with anonymous structured questionnaires distributed to 477 visitors who tried to get travel health information from New Southbound Health Center between June and November 2019. A multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis was applied to identify factors associated with the visitors' willingness to seek pretravel consultation. RESULTS: A total of 304 questionnaires (64%) were collected. Eighty-three percent of the respondents were willing to seek pretravel consultation. A higher level of education (odds ratio 3.6 [95% CI 1.58-8.22]), having a plan to obtain travel medical insurance (2.5 [1.18-5.28]), concern with gastrointestinal diseases (2.0 [1.04-3.94]), concern with mosquito-borne diseases (2.0 [2.07-3.95]), and concern with noncommunicable diseases (2.2 [1.02-4.96]) were independent factors associated with willingness to seek pretravel consultation.: CONCLUSIONS: We found that most of the travelers were willing to seek pretravel consultation. Our study highlighted the need to enhance awareness about travel-related illness among these travelers. Strategies should be tailored according to these findings to help prevent epidemics and improve healthcare service in the future.

Attitudes and awareness of medical assistance while traveling abroad.

BACKGROUND: With globalization, more and more people travel to countries where they are at risk of injuries and travel-related diseases. To protect travelers' health, it is crucial to understand whether travelers accurately perceive medical assistance resources before and during their trips. This study investigated the need, awareness, and previous usage of overseas emergency medical assistance services (EMAS) among people traveling abroad. METHODS: Anonymous questionnaires were distributed to patients (n = 500) at a travel clinic in Taipei, Taiwan. RESULTS: The results showed that EMAS were important, especially in the following categories: 24-h telephone medical consultation (91.8%), emergent medical repatriation (87.6%), and assistance with arranging hospital admission (87.4%). Patients were less aware of the following services: arrangement of appointments with doctors (70.7%) and monitoring of medical conditions during hospitalization (73.0%). Less than 5% of respondents had a previous experience with EMAS. CONCLUSIONS: EMAS are considered important to people who are traveling abroad. However, approximately 20-30% of travelers lack an awareness of EMAS, and the percentage of travelers who have previously received medical assistance through these services is extremely low. The discrepancy between the need and usage of EMAS emphasizes the necessity to adapt EMAS materials in pre-travel consultations to meet the needs of international travelers.

Tour leaders with detailed knowledge of travel-related diseases play a key role in disease prevention.

In Taiwan, group tours are a popular mode of international travel; hence, group tour leaders must ensure traveler safety and health. This study identified factors influencing tour leaders' willingness to recommend pretravel medical consultation and vaccination.A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was administered to tour leaders from January 2011 to December 2012. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate the odds ratios of having a positive attitude and willingness based on different knowledge scores of the tour leaders after adjustments for age, sex, education level, and seniority.Tour leaders with a more detailed knowledge of both travel-related infectious and noninfectious diseases demonstrated a higher willingness to receive vaccination. They believed that consultation at travel clinics before travel can improve travelers' health (P < .05).This study supports the importance and effectiveness on educating tour leaders' knowledge about travel-related diseases to improve health care for travelers.

Truth Telling and Treatment Strategies in End-of-Life Care in Physician-Led Accountable Care Organizations: Discrepancies Between Patients' Preferences and Physicians' Perceptions.

Providing patient-centered care from preventive medicine to end-of-life care in order to improve care quality and reduce medical cost is important for accountable care. Physicians in the accountable care organizations (ACOs) are suitable for participating in supportive end-of-life care especially when facing issues in truth telling and treatment strategy. This study aimed to investigate patients' attitudes toward truth telling and treatment preferences in end-of-life care and compare patients' attitudes with their ACOs physicians' perceptions.This nationwide study applied snowball sampling to survey physicians in physician-led ACOs and their contracted patients by questionnaire from August 2010 to July 2011 in Taiwan. The main outcome measures were beliefs about palliative care, attitudes toward truth telling, and treatment preferences.The data of 314 patients (effective response rate = 88.7%) and 177 physicians (88.5%) were analyzed. Regarding truth telling about disease prognosis, 94.3% of patients preferred to be fully informed, whereas only 80% of their physicians had that perception (P < 0.001). Significant differences were also found in attitudes toward truth telling even when encountering terminal disease status (98.1% vs 85.3%). Regarding treatment preferences in terminal illness, nearly 90% of patients preferred supportive care, but only 15.8% of physicians reported that their patients had this preference (P < 0.001).Significant discrepancies exist between patients' preferences and physicians' perceptions toward truth telling and treatment strategies in end-of-life care. It is important to enhance physician-patient communication about end-of-life care preferences in order to achieve the goal of ACOs. Continuing education on communication about end-of-life care during physicians' professional development would be helpful in the reform strategies of establishing accountable care around the world.