RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity remains an under-researched field in terms of studying burden of disease at provincial level, and no studies have examined the effects of inactivity on life expectancy (LE) in China. The purpose of this study was to estimate mortality risk and LE effects associated with insufficient levels of physical activity in Jiangxi province. METHODS/FINDINGS: Prevalence of risk factors and mortality counts were extracted from Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors Surveillance Survey (CDRFSS) and Disease Surveillance Points system (DSP), respectively. Insufficient physical activity (IPA) was defined as less than 150 minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity or 60 minutes of vigorous-intensity physical activity per week, accumulated across work, home, transport and discretionary domains. Population-attributable fractions (PAF) were used to calculate the mortality attributable to risk factors, and life table methods were used to estimate the LE gains and LE shifts. Monte Carlo simulation techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. Overall, 5 885 (95% uncertainly interval (UI), 5 047-6 506) and 8 578 (95% UI, 8 227-9 789) deaths in Jiangxi province were attributable to IPA in 2007 and 2010, respectively. The LE gains for elimination of attributable deaths were 0.68 (95% UI, 0.61-076) in 2007, and increased to 0.91 (95% UI, 0.81-1.10) in 2010. If the prevalence of IPA in 2010 had been decreased by 50% or 30%, 3 678 (95% UI, 3 220-4 229) or 2 090 (95% UI, 1 771-2 533) deaths would be avoided, and 0.40 (95% UI, 0.34-0.53) or 0.23 (95% UI, 0.16-0.31) years of LE gained, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Adults in Jiangxi province of China have a high and increasing prevalence of IPA. Due to the deaths and potential LE gains associated with IPA, there is an urgent need to promote physical activity, one of the most modifiable risk factors, within China's health care reform agenda.