Development and validation of an interpretable Markov-embedded multilabel model for predicting risks of multiple postoperative complications among surgical inpatients: a multicenter prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: When they encounter various highly related postoperative complications, existing risk evaluation tools that focus on single or any complications are inadequate in clinical practice. This seriously hinders complication management because of the lack of a quantitative basis. An interpretable multilabel model framework that predicts multiple complications simultaneously is urgently needed. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The authors included 50 325 inpatients from a large multicenter cohort (2014-2017). The authors separated patients from one hospital for external validation and randomly split the remaining patients into training and internal validation sets. A MARKov-EmbeDded (MARKED) multilabel model was proposed, and three models were trained for comparison: binary relevance, a fully connected network (FULLNET), and a deep neural network. Performance was mainly evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The authors interpreted the model using Shapley Additive Explanations. Complication-specific risk and risk source inference were provided at the individual level. RESULTS: There were 26 292, 6574, and 17 459 inpatients in the training, internal validation, and external validation sets, respectively. For the external validation set, MARKED achieved the highest average AUC (0.818, 95% CI: 0.771-0.864) across eight outcomes [compared with binary relevance, 0.799 (0.748-0.849), FULLNET, 0.806 (0.756-0.856), and deep neural network, 0.815 (0.765-0.866)]. Specifically, the AUCs of MARKED were above 0.9 for cardiac complications [0.927 (0.894-0.960)], neurological complications [0.905 (0.870-0.941)], and mortality [0.902 (0.867-0.937)]. Serum albumin, surgical specialties, emergency case, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, age, and sex were the six most important preoperative variables. The interaction between complications contributed more than the preoperative variables, and formed a hierarchical chain of risk factors, mild complications, and severe complications. CONCLUSION: The authors demonstrated the advantage of MARKED in terms of performance and interpretability. The authors expect that the identification of high-risk patients and the inference of the risk source for specific complications will be valuable for clinical decision-making.

Analysis of hospital and payer costs of care: aggressive warming versus routine warming in abdominal major surgery.

Background: Hypothermia is common and active warming is recommended in major surgery. The potential effect on hospitals and payer costs of aggressive warming to a core temperature target of 37°C is poorly understood. Methods: In this sub-analysis of the PROTECT trial (clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03111875), we included patients who underwent radical procedures of colorectal cancer and were randomly assigned to aggressive warming or routine warming. Perioperative outcomes, operation room (OR) scheduling process, internal cost accounting data from the China Statistical yearbook (2022), and price lists of medical and health institutions in Beijing were examined. A discrete event simulation (DES) model was established to compare OR efficiency using aggressive warming or routine warming in 3 months. We report base-case net costs and sensitivity analyses of intraoperative aggressive warming compared with routine warming. Costs were calculated in 2022 using US dollars (USD). Results: Data from 309 patients were analyzed. The aggressive warming group comprised 161 patients and the routine warming group comprised 148 patients. Compared to routine warming, there were no differences in the incidence of postoperative complications and total hospitalization costs of patients with aggressive warming. The potential benefit of aggressive warming was in the reduced extubation time (7.96 ± 4.33 min vs. 10.33 ± 5.87 min, p < 0.001), lower incidence of prolonged extubation (5.6% vs. 13.9%, p = 0.017), and decreased staff costs. In the DES model, there is no add-on or cancelation of operations performed within 3 months. The net hospital costs related to aggressive warming were higher than those related to routine warming in one operation (138.11 USD vs. 72.34 USD). Aggressive warming will have an economic benefit when the OR staff cost is higher than 2.37 USD/min/person, or the cost of disposable forced-air warming (FAW) is less than 12.88 USD/piece. Conclusion: Despite improving OR efficiency, the economic benefits of aggressive warming are influenced by staff costs and the cost of FAW, which vary from different regions and countries. Clinical trial registration: clinicaltrials.gov, identifier (NCT03111875).

Expert consensus on difficult airway assessment.

Background: Identifying a potentially difficult airway is crucial both in anaesthesia in the operating room (OR) and non-operation room sites. There are no guidelines or expert consensus focused on the assessment of the difficult airway before, so this expert consensus is developed to provide guidance for airway assessment, making this process more standardized and accurate to reduce airway-related complications and improve safety. Methods: Seven members from the Airway Management Group of the Chinese Society of Anaesthesiology (CSA) met to discuss the first draft and then this was sent to 15 international experts for review, comment, and approval. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) is used to determine the level of evidence and grade the strength of recommendations. The recommendations were revised through a three-round Delphi survey from experts. Results: This expert consensus provides a comprehensive approach to airway assessment based on the medical history, physical examination, comprehensive scores, imaging, and new developments including transnasal endoscopy, virtual laryngoscopy, and 3D printing. In addition, this consensus also reviews some new technologies currently under development such as prediction from facial images and voice information with the aim of proposing new research directions for the assessment of difficult airway. Conclusions: This consensus applies to anesthesiologists, critical care, and emergency physicians refining the preoperative airway assessment and preparing an appropriate intubation strategy for patients with a potentially difficult airway.

Composition and risk assessment of perioperative patient safety incidents reported by anesthesiologists from 2009 to 2019: a single-center retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patient safety incident (PSI) reporting has been an important means of improving patient safety and enhancing organizational quality control. Reports of anesthesia-related incidents are of great value for analysis to improve perioperative patient safety. However, the utilization of incident data is far from sufficient, especially in developing countries such as China. METHODS: All PSIs reported by anesthesiologists in a Chinese academic hospital between September 2009 and August 2019 were collected from the incident reporting system. We reviewed the freeform text reports, supplemented with information from the patient medical record system. Composition analysis and risk assessment were performed. RESULTS: In total, 847 PSIs were voluntarily reported by anesthesiologists during the study period among 452,974 anesthetic procedures, with a reported incidence of 0.17%. Patients with a worse ASA physical status were more likely to be involved in a PSI. The most common type of incident was related to the airway (N = 208, 27%), followed by the heart, brain and vascular system (N = 99, 13%) and pharmacological incidents (N = 79, 10%). Those preventable incidents with extreme or high risk were identified through risk assessment to serve as a reference for the implementation of more standard operating procedures by the department. CONCLUSIONS: This study describes the characteristics of 847 PSIs voluntarily reported by anesthesiologists within eleven years in a Chinese academic hospital. Airway incidents constitute the majority of incidents reported by anesthesiologists. Underreporting is common in China, and the importance of summarizing and utilizing anesthesia incident data should be scrutinized.

Objective Pain Assessment: a Key for the Management of Chronic Pain.

The individual and social burdens associated with chronic pain have been escalating globally. Accurate pain measurement facilitates early diagnosis, disease progression monitoring and therapeutic efficacy evaluation, thus is a key for the management of chronic pain. Although the "golden standards" of pain measurement are self-reported scales in clinical practice, the reliability of these subjective methods could be easily affected by patients' physiological and psychological status, as well as the assessors' predispositions. Therefore, objective pain assessment has attracted substantial attention recently. Previous studies of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) revealed that certain cortices and subcortical areas are commonly activated in subjects suffering from pain. Dynamic pain connectome analysis also found various alterations of neural network connectivity that are correlated with the severity of clinical pain symptoms. Electroencephalograph (EEG) demonstrated suppressed spontaneous oscillations during pain experience. Spectral power and coherence analysis of EEG also identified signatures of different types of chronic pain. Furthermore, fMRI and EEG can visualize objective brain activities modulated by analgesics in a mechanism-based way, thus bridge the gaps between animal studies and clinical trials. Using fMRI and EEG, researchers are able to predict therapeutic efficacy and identify personalized optimal first-line regimens. In the future, the emergence of magnetic resonance spectroscopy and cell labelling in MRI would encourage the investigation on metabolic and cellular pain biomarkers. The incorporation of machine learning algorithms with neuroimaging or behavior analysis could further enhance the specificity and accuracy of objective pain assessments.

Cost-effectiveness comparison of routine transfusion with restrictive and liberal transfusion strategies for surgical patients in China.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A health industry standard recommending restrictive transfusion is to be in effect in China in April 2019. We aim to explore its potential economic and clinical impacts among surgical patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A decision tree model was applied to compare cost-effectiveness of current routine transfusion in China, a restrictive (transfusion at Hb < 8 g/dl or ischaemic symptoms) and a liberal (transfusion at Hb < 10 g/dl) strategy. Parameters were estimated from empirical data of 25 227 surgical inpatients aged ≥30 years in a multicenter study and supplemented by meta-analysis when necessary. Results are shown for cardio-cerebral-vascular (CCV) surgery and non-CCV (orthopaedics, general, thoracic) surgery separately. RESULTS: Per 10 000 patients in routine, restrictive, liberal transfusion scenarios, total spending (transfusion and length of stay related) was 7·67, 7·58 and 9·39 million CNY (1 CNY × 0.157 = 1 US dollar) for CCV surgery and 6·35, 6·70 and 8·09 million CNY for non-CCV surgery; infectious and severe complications numbered 354, 290, and 290 (CCV) and 315, 286, and 330 (non-CCV), respectively. Acceptability curves showed high probabilities for restrictive strategy to be cost-effective across a wide range of willingness-to-pay values. Such findings were mostly consistent in sensitivity and subgroup analyses except for patients with cardiac problems. CONCLUSION: We showed strong rationale, succeeding previous findings only in cardiac or joint procedures, to comply with the new standard as restrictive transfusion has high potential to save blood, secure safety, and is cost-effective for a wide spectrum of surgical patients. Experiences should be further summarized to pave the way towards individualized transfusion.

Effect of a risk-stratified intervention strategy on surgical complications: experience from a multicentre prospective study in China.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a risk-stratified intervention strategy and evaluate its effect on reducing surgical complications. DESIGN: A multicentre prospective study with preintervention and postintervention stages: period I (January to June 2015) to develop the intervention strategy and period II (January to June 2016) to evaluate its effectiveness. SETTING: Four academic/teaching hospitals representing major Chinese administrative and economic regions. PARTICIPANTS: All surgical (elective and emergent) inpatients aged ≥14 years with a minimum hospital stay of 24 hours, who underwent a surgical procedure requiring an anesthesiologist. INTERVENTIONS: Targeted complications were grouped into three categories (common, specific, serious) according to their incidence pattern, severity and preventability. The corresponding expert consensus-generated interventions, which focused on both regulating medical practices and managing inherent patient-related risks, were implemented in a patient-tailored way via an electronic checklist system. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Primary outcomes were (1) in-hospital death/confirmed death within 30 days after discharge and (2) complications during hospitalisation. Secondary outcome was length of stay (LOS). RESULTS: We included 51 030 patients in this analysis (eligibility rate 87.7%): 23 413 during period I, 27 617 during period II. Patients' characteristics were comparable during the two periods. After adjustment, the mean number of overall complications per 100 patients decreased from 8.84 to 7.56 (relative change 14.5%; P<0.0001). Specifically, complication rates decreased from 3.96 to 3.65 (7.8%) for common complications (P=0.0677), from 0.50 to 0.36 (28.0%) for specific complications (P=0.0153) and from 3.64 to 2.88 (20.9%) for serious complications (P<0.0001). From period I to period II, there was a decreasing trend for mortality (from 0.64 to 0.53; P=0.1031) and median LOS (by 1 day; P=0.8293), without statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing a risk-stratified intervention strategy may be a target-sensitive, convenient means to improve surgical outcomes.

Assessment of Itch and Pain in Animal Models and Human Subjects.

For the past century, scientists have developed a variety of methods to evaluate itch and pain in both animal models and human subjects to throw light on some of the most important pathways mediating these unpleasant sensations. Discoveries in the mechanisms underlying itch and pain in both physiological and pathological conditions relied greatly upon these studies and may eventually lead to the discovery of new therapeutics. However, it was a much more complicated job to access itch and pain in animal models than in human subjects due to the subjective nature of these sensations. The results could be contradictory or even misleading when applying different methodologies in animal models, especially under pathological conditions with a mixed sensation of itch and pain. This chapter introduces and evaluates some of the classical and newly designed methodologies to access the sensation of itch and pain in animal models as well as human subjects.

Perioperative tobacco interventions by Chinese anesthesiologists: practices and attitudes.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of cigarette smoking in China is high. Surgery provides an excellent opportunity for patients to quit smoking, and anesthesiologists can play an important role in tobacco control. However, little is known about the practices, knowledge, and attitudes of Chinese anesthesiologists regarding perioperative tobacco interventions. METHODS: Chinese anesthesiologists were surveyed at a national meeting in 2009, with written questionnaires distributed to 800 practicing anesthesiologists. RESULTS: The survey response rate was 60.3%, and 10% of respondents themselves smoked cigarettes. Most (73%) of them frequently or almost always asked about smoking status; 51% advised about the health risk of tobacco use; and 60% advised patients to quit. Compared with nonsmokers, smokers were significantly less likely to advise about the health risks of smoking and quitting. A high proportion of respondents had accurate perceptions of perioperative and long-term health risks of smoking. Although most respondents agreed that advising patients to quit is the responsibility of anesthesiologists and the perioperative period is a good time to help patients quit smoking, few knew how to counsel about smoking or help patients get the help they needed to quit. Nonetheless, most of the respondents were willing to learn about perioperative interventions and spend an extra 5 min to help patients quit smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Given their adequate knowledge of health risks of smoking, strong perception of responsibilities, and willingness to participate in tobacco control, Chinese anesthesiologists are poised to play a significant role in tobacco control in China that could improve perioperative outcomes and promote long-term health.