Resolving ecosystem complexity in ecological risk assessment for mine site rehabilitation.

CONTEXT: Ecological Risk Assessments (ERAs) are important tools for supporting evidence-based decision making. However, most ERA frameworks rarely consider complex ecological feedbacks, which limit their capacity to evaluate risks at community and ecosystem levels of organisation. METHOD: We used qualitative mathematical modelling to add additional perspectives to previously conducted ERAs for the rehabilitation of the Ranger uranium mine (Northern Territory, Australia) and support an assessment of the cumulative risks from the mine site. Using expert elicitation workshops, separate qualitative models and scenarios were developed for aquatic and terrestrial systems. The models developed in the workshops were used to construct Bayes Nets that predicted whole-of-ecosystem outcomes after components were perturbed. RESULTS: The terrestrial model considered the effect of fire and weeds on established native vegetation that will be important for the successful rehabilitation of Ranger. It predicted that a combined intervention that suppresses both weeds and fire intensity gave similar response predictions as for weed control alone, except for lower levels of certainty to tall grasses and fire intensity in models with immature trees or tall grasses. However, this had ambiguous predictions for short grasses and forbs, and tall grasses in models representing mature vegetation. The aquatic model considered the effects of magnesium (Mg), a key solute in current and predicted mine runoff and groundwater egress, which is known to adversely affect many aquatic species. The aquatic models provided support that attached algae and phytoplankton assemblages are the key trophic base for food webs. It predicted that shifts in phytoplankton abundance arising from increase in Mg to receiving waters, may result in cascading effects through the food-chain. CONCLUSION: The qualitative modelling approach was flexible and capable of modelling both gradual (i.e. decadal) processes in the mine-site restoration and the comparatively more rapid (seasonal) processes of the aquatic ecosystem. The modelling also provides a useful decision tool for identifying important ecosystem sub-systems for further research efforts.

Toward Sustainable Environmental Quality: Priority Research Questions for Asia.

Environmental and human health challenges are pronounced in Asia, an exceptionally diverse and complex region where influences of global megatrends are extensive and numerous stresses to environmental quality exist. Identifying priorities necessary to engage grand challenges can be facilitated through horizon scanning exercises, and to this end we identified and examined 23 priority research questions needed to advance toward more sustainable environmental quality in Asia, as part of the Global Horizon Scanning Project. Advances in environmental toxicology, environmental chemistry, biological monitoring, and risk-assessment methodologies are necessary to address the adverse impacts of environmental stressors on ecosystem services and biodiversity, with Asia being home to numerous biodiversity hotspots. Intersections of the food-energy-water nexus are profound in Asia; innovative and aggressive technologies are necessary to provide clean water, ensure food safety, and stimulate energy efficiency, while improving ecological integrity and addressing legacy and emerging threats to public health and the environment, particularly with increased aquaculture production. Asia is the largest chemical-producing continent globally. Accordingly, sustainable and green chemistry and engineering present decided opportunities to stimulate innovation and realize a number of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Engaging the priority research questions identified herein will require transdisciplinary coordination through existing and nontraditional partnerships within and among countries and sectors. Answering these questions will not be easy but is necessary to achieve more sustainable environmental quality in Asia. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:1485-1505. © 2020 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.