A global investment framework for the elimination of hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: More than 292 million people are living with hepatitis B worldwide and are at risk of death from cirrhosis and liver cancer. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set global targets for the elimination of viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. However, current levels of global investment in viral hepatitis elimination programmes are insufficient to achieve these goals. METHODS: To catalyse political commitment and to encourage domestic and international financing, we used published modelling data and key stakeholder interviews to develop an investment framework to demonstrate the return on investment for viral hepatitis elimination. RESULTS: The framework utilises a public health approach to identify evidence-based national activities that reduce viral hepatitis-related morbidity and mortality, as well as international activities and critical enablers that allow countries to achieve maximum impact on health outcomes from their investments - in the context of the WHO's 2030 viral elimination targets. CONCLUSION: Focusing on hepatitis B, this health policy paper employs the investment framework to estimate the substantial economic benefits of investing in the elimination of hepatitis B and demonstrates how such investments could be cost saving by 2030. LAY SUMMARY: Hepatitis B infection is a major cause of death from liver disease and liver cancer globally. To reduce deaths from hepatitis B infection, we need more people to be tested and treated for hepatitis B. In this paper, we outline a framework of activities to reduce hepatitis B-related deaths and discuss ways in which governments could pay for them.

The Hep-CORE policy score: A European hepatitis C national policy implementation ranking based on patient organization data.

BACKGROUND: New hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatments spurred the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2016 to adopt a strategy to eliminate HCV as a public health threat by 2030. To achieve this, key policies must be implemented. In the absence of monitoring mechanisms, this study aims to assess the extent of policy implementation from the perspective of liver patient groups. METHODS: Thirty liver patient organisations, each representing a country, were surveyed in October 2018 to assess implementation of HCV policies in practice. Respondents received two sets of questions based on: 1) WHO recommendations; and 2) validated data sources verifying an existing policy in their country. Academic experts selected key variables from each set for inclusion into policy scores. The similarity scores were calculated for each set with a multiple joint correspondence analysis. Proxy reference countries were included as the baseline to contextualize results. We extracted scores for each country and standardized them from 0 to 10 (best). RESULTS: Twenty-five countries responded. For the score based on WHO recommendations, Bulgaria had the lowest score whereas five countries (Cyprus, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, and Sweden) had the highest scores. For the verified policy score, a two-dimensional solution was identified; first dimension scores pertained to whether verified policies were in place and second dimension scores pertained to the proportion of verified policies in-place that were implemented. Spain, UK, and Sweden had high scores for both dimensions. CONCLUSIONS: Patient groups reported that the European region is not on track to meet WHO 2030 HCV goals. More action should be taken to implement and monitor HCV policies.

Do the most heavily burdened countries have the right policies to eliminate viral hepatitis B and C?

In 2019, a Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology Commission on accelerating the elimination of viral hepatitis reported on the status of 11 viral hepatitis policy indicators in 66 countries and territories with the heaviest burden by global region. Policies were reported as being either in place, in development, or not in place. This study uses the Commission findings to estimate hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) policy scores and rankings for these 66 countries and territories. We applied a multiple correspondence analysis technique to reduce data on policy indicators into a weighted summary for the HBV and HCV policies. We calculated HBV and HCV policy scores for each country. Countries and territories that received higher scores had more policies in place and in development than did countries with lower scores. The highest scoring country for HBV was Australia, whereas Somalia had the lowest score. For the HCV policy score, Australia and New Zealand had perfect scores, whereas Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen had the lowest scores, all having no policy indicators in place.

Global hepatitis C elimination: an investment framework.

WHO has set global targets for the elimination of hepatitis B and hepatitis C as a public health threat by 2030. However, investment in elimination programmes remains low. To help drive political commitment and catalyse domestic and international financing, we have developed a global investment framework for the elimination of hepatitis B and hepatitis C. The global investment framework presented in this Health Policy paper outlines national and international activities that will enable reductions in hepatitis C incidence and mortality, and identifies potential sources of funding and tools to help countries build the economic case for investing in national elimination activities. The goal of this framework is to provide a way for countries, particularly those with minimal resources, to gain the substantial economic benefit and cost savings that come from investing in hepatitis C elimination.

Evaluating the population impact of hepatitis C direct acting antiviral treatment as prevention for people who inject drugs (EPIToPe) - a natural experiment (protocol).

INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the second largest contributor to liver disease in the UK, with injecting drug use as the main risk factor among the estimated 200 000 people currently infected. Despite effective prevention interventions, chronic HCV prevalence remains around 40% among people who inject drugs (PWID). New direct-acting antiviral (DAA) HCV therapies combine high cure rates (>90%) and short treatment duration (8 to 12 weeks). Theoretical mathematical modelling evidence suggests HCV treatment scale-up can prevent transmission and substantially reduce HCV prevalence/incidence among PWID. Our primary aim is to generate empirical evidence on the effectiveness of HCV 'Treatment as Prevention' (TasP) in PWID. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We plan to establish a natural experiment with Tayside, Scotland, as a single intervention site where HCV care pathways are being expanded (including specialist drug treatment clinics, needle and syringe programmes (NSPs), pharmacies and prison) and HCV treatment for PWID is being rapidly scaled-up. Other sites in Scotland and England will act as potential controls. Over 2 years from 2017/2018, at least 500 PWID will be treated in Tayside, which simulation studies project will reduce chronic HCV prevalence among PWID by 62% (from 26% to 10%) and HCV incidence will fall by approximately 2/3 (from 4.2 per 100 person-years (p100py) to 1.4 p100py). Treatment response and re-infection rates will be monitored. We will conduct focus groups and interviews with service providers and patients that accept and decline treatment to identify barriers and facilitators in implementing TasP. We will conduct longitudinal interviews with up to 40 PWID to assess whether successful HCV treatment alters their perspectives on and engagement with drug treatment and recovery. Trained peer researchers will be involved in data collection and dissemination. The primary outcome - chronic HCV prevalence in PWID - is measured using information from the Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative survey in Scotland and the Unlinked Anonymous Monitoring Programme in England, conducted at least four times before and three times during and after the intervention. We will adapt Bayesian synthetic control methods (specifically the Causal Impact Method) to generate the cumulative impact of the intervention on chronic HCV prevalence and incidence. We will use a dynamic HCV transmission and economic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the HCV TasP intervention, and to estimate the contribution of the scale-up in HCV treatment to observe changes in HCV prevalence. Through the qualitative data we will systematically explore key mechanisms of TasP real world implementation from provider and patient perspectives to develop a manual for scaling up HCV treatment in other settings. We will compare qualitative accounts of drug treatment and recovery with a 'virtual cohort' of PWID linking information on HCV treatment with Scottish Drug treatment databases to test whether DAA treatment improves drug treatment outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Extending HCV community care pathways is covered by ethics (ERADICATE C, ISRCTN27564683, Super DOT C Trial clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02706223). Ethical approval for extra data collection from patients including health utilities and qualitative interviews has been granted (REC ref: 18/ES/0128) and ISCRCTN registration has been completed (ISRCTN72038467). Our findings will have direct National Health Service and patient relevance; informing prioritisation given to early HCV treatment for PWID. We will present findings to practitioners and policymakers, and support design of an evaluation of HCV TasP in England.

Innovative strategies for the elimination of viral hepatitis at a national level: A country case series.

Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, but has long been neglected by national and international policymakers. Recent modelling studies suggest that investing in the global elimination of viral hepatitis is feasible and cost-effective. In 2016, all 194 member states of the World Health Organization endorsed the goal to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030, but complex systemic and social realities hamper implementation efforts. This paper presents eight case studies from a diverse range of countries that have invested in responses to viral hepatitis and adopted innovative approaches to tackle their respective epidemics. Based on an investment framework developed to build a global investment case for the elimination of viral hepatitis by 2030, national activities and key enablers are highlighted that showcase the feasibility and impact of concerted hepatitis responses across a range of settings, with different levels of available resources and infrastructural development. These case studies demonstrate the utility of taking a multipronged, public health approach to: (a) evidence-gathering and planning; (b) implementation; and (c) integration of viral hepatitis services into the Agenda for Sustainable Development. They provide models for planning, investment and implementation strategies for other countries facing similar challenges and resource constraints.

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of existing needle and syringe programmes in preventing hepatitis C transmission in people who inject drugs.

AIM: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) compared with no NSPs on hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission in the United Kingdom. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis from a National Health Service (NHS)/health-provider perspective, utilizing a dynamic transmission model of HCV infection and disease progression, calibrated using city-specific surveillance and survey data, and primary data collection on NSP costs. The effectiveness of NSPs preventing HCV acquisition was based on empirical evidence. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: UK settings with different chronic HCV prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID): Dundee (26%), Walsall (18%) and Bristol (45%) INTERVENTIONS: Current NSP provision is compared with a counterfactual scenario where NSPs are removed for 10 years and then returned to existing levels with effects collected for 40 years. MEASUREMENTS: HCV infections and cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained through NSPs over 50 years. FINDINGS: Compared with a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY gained, NSPs were highly cost-effective over a time-horizon of 50 years and decreased the number of HCV incident infections. The mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was cost-saving in Dundee and Bristol, and £596 per QALY gained in Walsall, with 78, 46 and 40% of simulations being cost-saving in each city, respectively, with differences driven by coverage of NSP and HCV prevalence (lowest in Walsall). More than 90% of simulations were cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay threshold. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses, including varying the time-horizon, HCV treatment cost and numbers of HCV treatments per year. CONCLUSIONS: Needle and syringe programmes are a highly effective low-cost intervention to reduce hepatitis C virus transmission, and in some settings they are cost-saving. Needle and syringe programmes are likely to remain cost-effective irrespective of changes in hepatitis C virus treatment cost and scale-up.

Association between universal hepatitis B prison vaccination, vaccine uptake and hepatitis B infection among people who inject drugs.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In Scotland, hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination for all prisoners was introduced in 1999; here, we examine the impact of this programme among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the community. This study aimed to compare rates of HBV vaccine uptake before and after implementation of the prison programme and to estimate the determinants of vaccine uptake, the levels of ever/current HBV infection and the associations between vaccine uptake and ever/current HBV infection. DESIGN: Data collected via serial cross-sectional surveys were used to compare the proportion who reported being vaccinated over time. For the 2013-14 survey, rates of ever/current HBV infection were calculated and the associations between vaccine uptake and ever/current HBV infection were examined using logistic regression. SETTING: Services providing injecting equipment and drug treatment and street sites in Glasgow (1993-2002) and throughout Scotland (2008-14). PARTICIPANTS: More than 10 000 PWID in total were recruited in the surveys. MEASUREMENTS: Participants completed a questionnaire (all years) to ascertain self-reported vaccine uptake and provided a blood spot (in 2013-14), tested for HBV core antibodies (anti-HBc) and surface antigen (HBsAg). FINDINGS: Among recent-onset PWID in Glasgow, vaccine uptake increased from 16% in 1993 to 59% in 2008-14 (P < 0.001). Among all PWID in Scotland, uptake increased further from 71% in 2008-09 to 77% in 2013-14 (P < 0.001) and was associated with incarceration [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 2.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.23-3.79]. The prevalence of anti-HBc and HBsAg in Scotland was 2.6 and 0.3%, respectively, among PWID who had commenced injecting in the decade since the programme's introduction. Vaccination was associated with reduced odds of ever (aOR = 0.60, CI = 0.37-0.97) and current (aOR = 0.40, CI = 0.16-0.97) HBV infection. CONCLUSIONS: In Scotland, uptake of hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the community has increased since the 1999 introduction of universal prison vaccination, and current levels of HBV infection among PWID are low compared with other European countries.

The contribution of alcohol use disorder to decompensated cirrhosis among people with hepatitis C: An international study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The advent of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) has led to ambitious targets for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. However, in the context of alcohol use disorder the ability of DAAs to achieve these targets may be compromised. The aim of this study was to evaluate the contribution of alcohol use disorder to HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis in three settings. METHODS: HCV notifications from British Columbia, Canada; New South Wales, Australia, and Scotland (1995-2011/2012/2013, respectively) were linked to hospital admissions (2001-2012/2013/2014, respectively). Alcohol use disorder was defined as non-liver-related hospitalisation due to alcohol use. Age-standardised decompensated cirrhosis incidence rates were plotted, associated factors were assessed using Cox regression, and alcohol use disorder-associated population attributable fractions (PAFs) were computed. RESULTS: Among 58,487, 84,529, and 31,924 people with HCV in British Columbia, New South Wales, and Scotland, 2,689 (4.6%), 3,169 (3.7%), and 1,375 (4.3%) had a decompensated cirrhosis diagnosis, and 28%, 32%, and 50% of those with decompensated cirrhosis had an alcohol use disorder, respectively. Age-standardised decompensated cirrhosis incidence rates were considerably higher in people with alcohol use disorder in New South Wales and Scotland. Decompensated cirrhosis was independently associated with alcohol use disorder in British Columbia (aHR 1.92; 95% CI 1.76-2.10), New South Wales (aHR 3.68; 95% CI 3.38-4.00) and Scotland (aHR 3.88; 95% CI 3.42-4.40). The PAFs of decompensated cirrhosis-related to alcohol use disorder were 13%, 25%, and 40% in British Columbia, New South Wales and Scotland, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol use disorder was a major contributor to HCV liver disease burden in all settings, more distinctly in Scotland. The extent to which alcohol use would compromise the individual and population-level benefits of DAA therapy needs to be closely monitored. Countries, where appropriate, must develop strategies combining promotion of DAA treatment uptake with management of alcohol use disorders, if World Health Organization 2030 HCV mortality reduction targets are going to be achieved. LAY SUMMARY: The burden of liver disease has been rising among people with hepatitis C globally. The recent introduction of highly effective medicines against hepatitis C (called direct-acting antivirals or DAAs) has brought renewed optimism to the sector. DAA scale-up could eliminate hepatitis C as a public health threat in the coming decades. However, our findings show heavy alcohol use is a major risk factor for liver disease among people with hepatitis C. If continued, heavy alcohol use could compromise the benefits of new antiviral treatments at the individual- and population-level. To tackle hepatitis C as a public health threat, where needed, DAA therapy should be combined with management of heavy alcohol use.

Inpatient hospital burden of hepatitis C-diagnosed patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: To describe the burden on inpatient hospital resources over time from patients diagnosed with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and who have reached the decompensated stage of cirrhosis (DC), as existing estimates of hospital stay in these patients are limited. METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal dataset was formed via record-linkage between the national HCV diagnosis database and inpatient/daycase hospitalisation and death registers in Scotland. The study population consisted of HCV-diagnosed patients with a first DC admission in 1996-2013, with follow-up available until 31 May 2014. We investigated and quantified the mean cumulative length of hospital stay, distributions over discharge diagnosis categories, and trends in admission rates. RESULTS: Among our study population (n = 1543), we identified 10 179 admissions with any diagnosis post-first DC admission. Between 1996 and 2013 there was a 16-fold rise in annual total admissions (from 112 to 1791) and an 11-fold rise in hospital stay (719-8045). When restricting minimum possible follow-up to 2 years, DC patients (n = 1312) had an overall admission rate of 7.3 per person-year, and spent on average 43 days (26 days during first 6 months) in hospital; for all liver-related, liver-related other than HCC/DC, and non-liver related only admissions, this was 39, 14, and 5 days respectively. CONCLUSIONS: HCV-infected DC patients impose a considerable inpatient hospital burden, mostly from DC- and other liver-related admissions, but also from admissions associated with non-liver comorbidities. Estimates will be useful for monitoring the impact of prevention and treatment, and for computing the cost-effectiveness of new therapies.

Needle syringe programmes and opioid substitution therapy for preventing hepatitis C transmission in people who inject drugs.

BACKGROUND: Needle syringe programmes and opioid substitution therapy for preventing hepatitis C transmission in people who inject drugsNeedle syringe programmes (NSP) and opioid substitution therapy (OST) are the primary interventions to reduce hepatitis C (HCV) transmission in people who inject drugs. There is good evidence for the effectiveness of NSP and OST in reducing injecting risk behaviour and increasing evidence for the effectiveness of OST and NSP in reducing HIV acquisition risk, but the evidence on the effectiveness of NSP and OST for preventing HCV acquisition is weak. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of needle syringe programmes and opioid substitution therapy, alone or in combination, for preventing acquisition of HCV in people who inject drugs. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Drug and Alcohol Register, CENTRAL, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), the Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA), the NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHSEED), MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Global Health, CINAHL, and the Web of Science up to 16 November 2015. We updated this search in March 2017, but we have not incorporated these results into the review yet. Where observational studies did not report any outcome measure, we asked authors to provide unpublished data. We searched publications of key international agencies and conference abstracts. We reviewed reference lists of all included articles and topic-related systematic reviews for eligible papers. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included prospective and retrospective cohort studies, cross-sectional surveys, case-control studies and randomised controlled trials that measured exposure to NSP and/or OST against no intervention or a reduced exposure and reported HCV incidence as an outcome in people who inject drugs. We defined interventions as current OST (within previous 6 months), lifetime use of OST and high NSP coverage (regular attendance at an NSP or all injections covered by a new needle/syringe) or low NSP coverage (irregular attendance at an NSP or less than 100% of injections covered by a new needle/syringe) compared with no intervention or reduced exposure. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We followed the standard Cochrane methodological procedures incorporating new methods for classifying risk of bias for observational studies. We described study methods against the following 'Risk of bias' domains: confounding, selection bias, measurement of interventions, departures from intervention, missing data, measurement of outcomes, selection of reported results; and we assigned a judgment (low, moderate, serious, critical, unclear) for each criterion. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 28 studies (21 published, 7 unpublished): 13 from North America, 5 from the UK, 4 from continental Europe, 5 from Australia and 1 from China, comprising 1817 incident HCV infections and 8806.95 person-years of follow-up. HCV incidence ranged from 0.09 cases to 42 cases per 100 person-years across the studies. We judged only two studies to be at moderate overall risk of bias, while 17 were at serious risk and 7 were at critical risk; for two unpublished datasets there was insufficient information to assess bias. As none of the intervention effects were generated from RCT evidence, we typically categorised quality as low. We found evidence that current OST reduces the risk of HCV acquisition by 50% (risk ratio (RR) 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40 to 0.63, I2 = 0%, 12 studies across all regions, N = 6361), but the quality of the evidence was low. The intervention effect remained significant in sensitivity analyses that excluded unpublished datasets and papers judged to be at critical risk of bias. We found evidence of differential impact by proportion of female participants in the sample, but not geographical region of study, the main drug used, or history of homelessness or imprisonment among study samples.Overall, we found very low-quality evidence that high NSP coverage did not reduce risk of HCV acquisition (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.39 to 1.61) with high heterogeneity (I2 = 77%) based on five studies from North America and Europe involving 3530 participants. After stratification by region, high NSP coverage in Europe was associated with a 76% reduction in HCV acquisition risk (RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.62) with less heterogeneity (I2 =0%). We found low-quality evidence of the impact of combined high coverage of NSP and OST, from three studies involving 3241 participants, resulting in a 74% reduction in the risk of HCV acquisition (RR 0.26 95% CI 0.07 to 0.89). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: OST is associated with a reduction in the risk of HCV acquisition, which is strengthened in studies that assess the combination of OST and NSP. There was greater heterogeneity between studies and weaker evidence for the impact of NSP on HCV acquisition. High NSP coverage was associated with a reduction in the risk of HCV acquisition in studies in Europe.

The clinical effectiveness of individual behaviour change interventions to reduce risky sexual behaviour after a negative human immunodeficiency virus test in men who have sex with men: systematic and realist reviews and intervention development.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) experience significant inequalities in health and well-being. They are the group in the UK at the highest risk of acquiring a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Guidance relating to both HIV infection prevention, in general, and individual-level behaviour change interventions, in particular, is very limited. OBJECTIVES: To conduct an evidence synthesis of the clinical effectiveness of behaviour change interventions to reduce risky sexual behaviour among MSM after a negative HIV infection test. To identify effective components within interventions in reducing HIV risk-related behaviours and develop a candidate intervention. To host expert events addressing the implementation and optimisation of a candidate intervention. DATA SOURCES: All major electronic databases (British Education Index, BioMed Central, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, EMBASE, Educational Resource Index and Abstracts, Health and Medical Complete, MEDLINE, PsycARTICLES, PsycINFO, PubMed and Social Science Citation Index) were searched between January 2000 and December 2014. REVIEW METHODS: A systematic review of the clinical effectiveness of individual behaviour change interventions was conducted. Interventions were examined using the behaviour change technique (BCT) taxonomy, theory coding assessment, mode of delivery and proximity to HIV infection testing. Data were summarised in narrative review and, when appropriate, meta-analysis was carried out. Supplemental analyses for the development of the candidate intervention focused on post hoc realist review method, the assessment of the sequential delivery and content of intervention components, and the social and historical context of primary studies. Expert panels reviewed the candidate intervention for issues of implementation and optimisation. RESULTS: Overall, trials included in this review (n = 10) demonstrated that individual-level behaviour change interventions are effective in reducing key HIV infection risk-related behaviours. However, there was considerable clinical and methodological heterogeneity among the trials. Exploratory meta-analysis showed a statistically significant reduction in behaviours associated with high risk of HIV transmission (risk ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.62 to 0.91). Additional stratified analyses suggested that effectiveness may be enhanced through face-to-face contact immediately after testing, and that theory-based content and BCTs drawn from 'goals and planning' and 'identity' groups are important. All evidence collated in the review was synthesised to develop a candidate intervention. Experts highlighted overall acceptability of the intervention and outlined key ways that the candidate intervention could be optimised to enhance UK implementation. LIMITATIONS: There was a limited number of primary studies. All were from outside the UK and were subject to considerable clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity. The findings of the meta-analysis must therefore be treated with caution. The lack of detailed intervention manuals limited the assessment of intervention content, delivery and fidelity. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence regarding the effectiveness of behaviour change interventions suggests that they are effective in changing behaviour associated with HIV transmission. Exploratory stratified meta-analyses suggested that interventions should be delivered face to face and immediately after testing. There are uncertainties around the generalisability of these findings to the UK setting. However, UK experts found the intervention acceptable and provided ways of optimising the candidate intervention. FUTURE WORK: There is a need for well-designed, UK-based trials of individual behaviour change interventions that clearly articulate intervention content and demonstrate intervention fidelity. STUDY REGISTRATION: The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014009500. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The SCottish Alcoholic Liver disease Evaluation: A Population-Level Matched Cohort Study of Hospital-Based Costs, 1991-2011.

Studies assessing the costs of alcoholic liver disease are lacking. We aimed to calculate the costs of hospitalisations before and after diagnosis compared to population controls matched by age, sex and socio-economic deprivation. We aimed to use population level data to identify a cohort of individuals hospitalised for the first time with alcoholic liver disease in Scotland between 1991 and 2011.Incident cases were classified by disease severity, sex, age group, socio-economic deprivation and year of index admission. 5 matched controls for every incident case were identified from the Scottish population level primary care database. Hospital costs were calculated for both cases and controls using length of stay from morbidity records and hospital-specific daily rates by specialty. Remaining lifetime costs were estimated using parametric survival models and predicted annual costs. 35,208 incident alcoholic liver disease hospitalisations were identified. Mean annual hospital costs for cases were 2.3 times that of controls pre diagnosis (£804 higher) and 10.2 times (£12,774 higher) post diagnosis. Mean incident admission cost was £6,663. Remaining lifetime cost for a male, 50-59 years old, living in the most deprived area diagnosed with acoholic liver disease was estimated to be £65,999 higher than the matched controls (£12,474 for 7.43 years remaining life compared to £1,224 for 21.8 years). In Scotland, alcoholic liver disease diagnosis is associated with significant increases in admissions to hospital both before and after diagnosis. Our results provide robust population level estimates of costs of alcoholic liver disease for the purposes of health-care delivery, planning and future cost-effectiveness analyses.

Engagement in a National Naloxone Programme among people who inject drugs.

BACKGROUND: Availability of the opioid antagonist naloxone for lay administration has grown substantially since first proposed in 1996. Gaps remain, though, in our understanding of how people who inject drugs (PWID) engage with naloxone programmes over time. AIMS: This paper aimed to address three specific evidence gaps: the extent of naloxone supply to PWID; supply-source (community or prisons); and the carriage of naloxone among PWID. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Analysis of Scotland's Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative (NESI) responses in 2011-2012 and 2013-2014 was undertaken with a specific focus on the extent of Scotland's naloxone supply to PWID; including by source (community or prisons); and on the carriage of naloxone. Differences in responses between the two surveys were measured using Chi-square tests together with 95% confidence intervals for rate-differences over time. RESULTS: The proportion of NESI participants who reported that they had been prescribed naloxone within the last year increased significantly from 8% (175/2146; 95% CI: 7-9%) in 2011-2012 to 32% (745/2331; 95% CI: 30% to 34%) in 2013-2014. In contrast, the proportion of NESI participants who carried naloxone with them on the day they were interviewed decreased significantly from 16% (27/169; 95% CI: 10% to 22%) in 2011-2012 to 5% (39/741; 95% CI: 4% to 7%) in 2013-2014. CONCLUSIONS: The supply of naloxone to PWID has increased significantly since the introduction of a National Naloxone Programme in Scotland in January 2011. In contrast, naloxone carriage is low and decreased between the two NESI surveys; this area requires further investigation.

Prioritization of HCV treatment in the direct-acting antiviral era: An economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We determined the optimal HCV treatment prioritization strategy for interferon-free (IFN-free) HCV direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) by disease stage and risk status incorporating treatment of people who inject drugs (PWID). METHODS: A dynamic HCV transmission and progression model compared the cost-effectiveness of treating patients early vs. delaying until cirrhosis for patients with mild or moderate fibrosis, where PWID chronic HCV prevalence was 20, 40 or 60%. Treatment duration was 12weeks at £3300/wk, to achieve a 95% sustained viral response and was varied by genotype/stage in alternative scenarios. We estimated long-term health costs (in £UK=€1.3=$1.5) and outcomes as quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained using a £20,000 willingness to pay per QALY threshold. We ranked strategies with net monetary benefit (NMB); negative NMB implies delay treatment. RESULTS: The most cost-effective group to treat were PWID with moderate fibrosis (mean NMB per early treatment £60,640/£23,968 at 20/40% chronic prevalence, respectively), followed by PWID with mild fibrosis (NMB £59,258 and £19,421, respectively) then ex-PWID/non-PWID with moderate fibrosis (NMB £9,404). Treatment of ex-PWID/non-PWID with mild fibrosis could be delayed (NMB -£3,650). In populations with 60% chronic HCV among PWID it was only cost-effective to prioritize DAAs to ex-PWID/non-PWID with moderate fibrosis. For every one PWID in the 20% chronic HCV setting, 2 new HCV infections were averted. One extra HCV-related death was averted per 13 people with moderate disease treated. Rankings were unchanged with reduced drug costs or varied sustained virological response/duration by genotype/fibrosis stage. CONCLUSIONS: Treating PWID with moderate or mild HCV with IFN-free DAAs is cost-effective compared to delay until cirrhosis, except when chronic HCV prevalence and reinfection risk is very high.

Is increased hepatitis C virus case-finding combined with current or 8-week to 12-week direct-acting antiviral therapy cost-effective in UK prisons? A prevention benefit analysis.

UNLABELLED: Prisoners have a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV), but case-finding may not have been cost-effective because treatment often exceeded average prison stay combined with a lack of continuity of care. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of increased HCV case-finding and treatment in UK prisons using short-course therapies. A dynamic HCV transmission model assesses the cost-effectiveness of doubling HCV case-finding (achieved through introducing opt-out HCV testing in UK pilot prisons) and increasing treatment in UK prisons compared to status quo voluntary risk-based testing (6% prison entrants/year), using currently recommended therapies (8-24 weeks) or interferon (IFN)-free direct-acting antivirals (DAAs; 8-12 weeks, 95% sustained virological response, £3300/week). Costs (British pounds, £) and health utilities (quality-adjusted life years) were used to calculate mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We assumed 56% referral and 2.5%/25% of referred people who inject drugs (PWID)/ex-PWID treated within 2 months of diagnosis in prison. PWID and ex-PWID or non-PWID are in prison an average 4 and 8 months, respectively. Doubling prison testing rates with existing treatments produces a mean ICER of £19,850/quality-adjusted life years gained compared to current testing/treatment and is 45% likely to be cost-effective under a £20,000 willingness-to-pay threshold. Switching to 8-week to 12-week IFN-free DAAs in prisons could increase cost-effectiveness (ICER £15,090/quality-adjusted life years gained). Excluding prevention benefit decreases cost-effectiveness. If >10% referred PWID are treated in prison (2.5% base case), either treatment could be highly cost-effective (ICER<£13,000). HCV case-finding and IFN-free DAAs could be highly cost-effective if DAA cost is 10% lower or with 8 weeks' duration. CONCLUSIONS: Increased HCV testing in UK prisons (such as through opt-out testing) is borderline cost-effective compared to status quo voluntary risk-based testing under a £20,000 willingness to pay with current treatments but likely to be cost-effective if short-course IFN-free DAAs are used and could be highly cost-effective if PWID treatment rates were increased. (Hepatology 2016;63:1796-1808).

Cost-Effectiveness of HBV and HCV Screening Strategies--A Systematic Review of Existing Modelling Techniques.

INTRODUCTION: Studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of screening for Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) are generally heterogeneous in terms of risk groups, settings, screening intervention, outcomes and the economic modelling framework. It is therefore difficult to compare cost-effectiveness results between studies. This systematic review aims to summarise and critically assess existing economic models for HBV and HCV in order to identify the main methodological differences in modelling approaches. METHODS: A structured search strategy was developed and a systematic review carried out. A critical assessment of the decision-analytic models was carried out according to the guidelines and framework developed for assessment of decision-analytic models in Health Technology Assessment of health care interventions. RESULTS: The overall approach to analysing the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies was found to be broadly consistent for HBV and HCV. However, modelling parameters and related structure differed between models, producing different results. More recent publications performed better against a performance matrix, evaluating model components and methodology. CONCLUSION: When assessing screening strategies for HBV and HCV infection, the focus should be on more recent studies, which applied the latest treatment regimes, test methods and had better and more complete data on which to base their models. In addition to parameter selection and associated assumptions, careful consideration of dynamic versus static modelling is recommended. Future research may want to focus on these methodological issues. In addition, the ability to evaluate screening strategies for multiple infectious diseases, (HCV and HIV at the same time) might prove important for decision makers.

Hepatitis C virus treatment as prevention in people who inject drugs: testing the evidence.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The majority of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in the United Kingdom and many developing countries were acquired through injecting. New clinical guidance suggests that HCV treatment should be offered to people with a transmission risk - such as people who inject drugs (PWID) - irrespective of severity of liver disease. We consider the strength of the evidence base and potential problems in evaluating HCV treatment as prevention among PWID. RECENT FINDINGS: There is good theoretical evidence from dynamic models that HCV treatment for PWID could reduce HCV chronic prevalence and incidence among PWID. Economic evaluations from high-income settings have suggested HCV treatment for PWID is cost-effective, and that in many settings HCV treatment of PWID could be more cost-effective than treating those at an equivalent stage with no ongoing transmission risk. Epidemiological studies of older interferon treatments have suggested that PWID can achieve similar treatment outcomes to other patient groups treated for chronic HCV. Impact and cost-effectiveness of HCV treatment is driven by the potential 'prevention benefit' of treating PWID. Model projections suggest that more future infections, end stage liver disease, and HCV-related deaths will be averted than lost through reinfection of PWID treated successfully for HCV. However, there is to date no empirical evidence from trials or observational studies that test the model projections and 'prevention benefit' hypothesis. In part this is because of uncertainty in the evidence base but also there is unlikely to have been a change in HCV prevalence due to HCV treatment because PWID HCV treatment rates historically in most sites have been low, and any scale-up and switch to the new direct acting antiviral has not yet occurred. There are a number of key uncertainties in the data available on PWID that need to be improved and addressed to evaluate treatment as prevention. These include estimates of the prevalence of PWID, measurements of HCV chronic prevalence and incidence among PWID, and how to interpret reinfection rates as potential outcome measures. SUMMARY: Eliminating HCV through scaling up treatment is a theoretical possibility. But empirical data are required to demonstrate that HCV treatment can reduce HCV transmission, which will require an improved evidence base and analytic framework for measuring PWID and HCV prevalence.