Modeling the impact of COVID-19 pandemic-driven increases in alcohol consumption on health outcomes and hospitalization costs in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol consumption increased in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Alcohol use disorder (AUD) and risky drinking are linked to harmful health effects. This paper aimed to project future health and cost impacts of shifts in alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: An individual-level simulation model of the long-term drinking patterns for people with life-time AUD was used to simulate 10 000 individuals and project model outcomes to the estimated 25.9 million current drinkers with life-time AUD in the United States. The model considered three scenarios: (1) no change (counterfactual for comparison); (2) increased drinking levels persist for 1 year ('increase-1') and (3) increased drinking levels persist for 5 years ('increase-5'). SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: Current drinkers with life-time AUD. MEASUREMENTS: Life expectancy [life-years (LYs)], quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), alcohol-related hospitalizations and associated hospitalization costs and alcohol-related deaths, during a 5-year period. FINDINGS: Short-term increases in alcohol consumption (increase-1 scenario) resulted in a loss of 79 000 [95% uncertainty interval (UI]) 26 000-201 000] LYs, a loss of 332 000 (104 000-604 000) QALYs and 295 000 (82 000-501 000) more alcohol-related hospitalizations, costing an additional $5.4 billion ($1.5-9.3 billion) over 5 years. Hospitalizations for cirrhosis of the liver accounted for approximately $3.0 billion ($0.9-4.8 billion) in hospitalization costs, more than half the increase across all alcohol-related conditions. Health and cost impacts were more pronounced for older age groups (51+), women and non-Hispanic black individuals. Increasing the duration of pandemic-driven increases in alcohol consumption in the increase-5 scenario resulted in larger impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Simulations show that if the increase in alcohol consumption observed in the United States in the first year of the pandemic continues, alcohol-related mortality, morbidity and associated costs will increase substantially over the next 5 years.

Substance use and population life expectancy in the USA: Interactions with health inequalities and implications for policy.

Life expectancy at birth for the USA has not increased in recent years. This commentary assesses the impact of substance use on this phenomenon. Although crude mortality rates of the most important causes of death (such as cardiovascular diseases or cancer) have declined between 2010 and 2014, crude mortality rates of drug- and alcohol-induced causes of death have increased. Alcohol use, non-medical prescription drug use (especially prescription opioid use) and illicit drug use have likely played a crucial role in life expectancy trends of the past years. Importantly, the current mortality crisis due to substances is disproportionately borne in lower socio-economic strata. As such, policies should reduce this impact.

Alcohol consumption as a risk factor for tuberculosis: meta-analyses and burden of disease.

Meta-analyses of alcohol use, alcohol dosage and alcohol-related problems as risk factors for tuberculosis incidence were undertaken. The global alcohol-attributable tuberculosis burden of disease was also re-estimated.Systematic searches were conducted, reference lists were reviewed and expert consultations were held to identify studies. Cohort and case-control studies were included if there were no temporal violations of exposure and outcome. Risk relations (RRs) were pooled by using categorical and dose-response meta-analyses. The alcohol-attributable tuberculosis burden of disease was estimated by using alcohol-attributable fractions.36 of 1108 studies were included. RRs for alcohol use and alcohol-related problems were 1.35 (95% CI 1.09-1.68; I2: 83%) and 3.33 (95% CI 2.14-5.19; 87%), respectively. Concerning alcohol dosage, tuberculosis risk rose as ethanol intake increased, with evidence of a threshold effect. Alcohol consumption caused 22.02 incident cases (95% CI 19.70-40.77) and 2.35 deaths (95% CI 2.05-4.79) per 100 000 people from tuberculosis in 2014. Alcohol-attributable tuberculosis incidence increased between 2000 and 2014 in most high tuberculosis burden countries, whereas mortality decreased.Alcohol consumption was associated with an increased risk of tuberculosis in all meta-analyses. It was consequently a major contributor to the tuberculosis burden of disease.

Estimating the harms and costs of cannabis-attributable collisions in the Canadian provinces.

INTRODUCTION: In 2012, 10% of Canadians used cannabis and just under half of those who use cannabis were estimated to have driven under the influence of cannabis. Substantial evidence has accumulated to indicate that driving after cannabis use increases collision risk significantly; however, little is known about the extent and costs associated with cannabis-related traffic collisions. This study quantifies the costs of cannabis-related traffic collisions in the Canadian provinces. METHODS: Province and age specific cannabis-attributable fractions (CAFs) were calculated for traffic collisions of varying severity. The CAFs were applied to traffic collision data in order to estimate the total number of persons involved in cannabis-attributable fatal, injury and property damage only collisions. Social cost values, based on willingness-to-pay and direct costs, were applied to estimate the costs associated with cannabis-related traffic collisions. The 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Monte Carlo methodology. RESULTS: Cannabis-attributable traffic collisions were estimated to have caused 75 deaths (95% CI: 0-213), 4407 injuries (95% CI: 20-11,549) and 7794 people (95% CI: 3107-13,086) were involved in property damage only collisions in Canada in 2012, totalling $1,094,972,062 (95% CI: 37,069,392-2,934,108,175) with costs being highest among younger people. DISCUSSION: The cannabis-attributable driving harms and costs are substantial. The harm and cost of cannabis-related collisions is an important factor to consider as Canada looks to legalize and regulate the sale of cannabis. This analysis provides evidence to help inform Canadian policy to reduce the human and economic costs of drug-impaired driving.

The relationship between different dimensions of alcohol use and the burden of disease-an update.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol use is a major contributor to injuries, mortality and the burden of disease. This review updates knowledge on risk relations between dimensions of alcohol use and health outcomes to be used in global and national Comparative Risk Assessments (CRAs). METHODS: Systematic review of reviews and meta-analyses on alcohol consumption and health outcomes attributable to alcohol use. For dimensions of exposure: volume of alcohol use, blood alcohol concentration and patterns of drinking, in particular heavy drinking occasions were studied. For liver cirrhosis, quality of alcohol was additionally considered. For all outcomes (mortality and/or morbidity): cause of death and disease/injury categories based on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes used in global CRAs; harm to others. RESULTS: In total, 255 reviews and meta-analyses were identified. Alcohol use was found to be linked causally to many disease and injury categories, with more than 40 ICD-10 three-digit categories being fully attributable to alcohol. Most partially attributable disease categories showed monotonic relationships with volume of alcohol use: the more alcohol consumed, the higher the risk of disease or death. Exceptions were ischaemic diseases and diabetes, with curvilinear relationships, and with beneficial effects of light to moderate drinking in people without heavy irregular drinking occasions. Biological pathways suggest an impact of heavy drinking occasions on additional diseases; however, the lack of medical epidemiological studies measuring this dimension of alcohol use precluded an in-depth analysis. For injuries, except suicide, blood alcohol concentration was the most important dimension of alcohol use. Alcohol use caused marked harm to others, which has not yet been researched sufficiently. CONCLUSIONS: Research since 2010 confirms the importance of alcohol use as a risk factor for disease and injuries; for some health outcomes, more than one dimension of use needs to be considered. Epidemiological studies should include measurement of heavy drinking occasions in line with biological knowledge.

A narrative review of alcohol consumption as a risk factor for global burden of disease.

Since the original Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) for alcohol consumption as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 1990, there had been regular updates of CRAs for alcohol from the World Health Organization and/or the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. These studies have become more and more refined with respect to establishing causality between dimensions of alcohol consumption and different disease and mortality (cause of death) outcomes, refining risk relations, and improving the methodology for estimating exposure and alcohol-attributable burden. The present review will give an overview on the main results of the CRAs with respect to alcohol consumption as a risk factor, sketch out new trends and developments, and draw implications for future research and policy.

The burden of disease attributable to cannabis use in Canada in 2012.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cannabis use is associated with several adverse health effects. However, little is known about the cannabis-attributable burden of disease. This study quantified the age-, sex- and adverse health effect-specific cannabis-attributable (1) mortality, (2) years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), (3) years of life lost due to disability (YLDs) and (4) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Canada in 2012. DESIGN: Epidemiological modeling. SETTING: Canada. PARTICIPANTS: Canadians aged ≥ 15 years in 2012. MEASUREMENTS: Using comparative risk assessment methodology, cannabis-attributable fractions were computed using Canadian exposure data and risk relations from large studies or meta-analyses. Outcome data were obtained from Canadian databases and the World Health Organization. The 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using Monte Carlo methodology. FINDINGS: Cannabis use was estimated to have caused 287 deaths (95% CI = 108, 609), 10,533 YLLs (95% CI = 4760, 20,833), 55,813 YLDs (95% CI = 38,175, 74,094) and 66,346 DALYs (95% CI = 47,785, 87,207), based on causal impacts on cannabis use disorders, schizophrenia, lung cancer and road traffic injuries. Cannabis-attributable burden of disease was highest among young people, and males accounted for twice the burden than females. Cannabis use disorders were the most important single cause of the cannabis-attributable burden of disease. CONCLUSIONS: The cannabis-attributable burden of disease in Canada in 2012 included 55,813 years of life lost due to disability, caused mainly by cannabis use disorders. Although the cannabis-attributable burden of disease was substantial, it was much lower compared with other commonly used legal and illegal substances. Moreover, the evidence base for cannabis-attributable harms was smaller.