Increased care-need in older long-term care insurance users after the 2018 Japan Floods: a retrospective cohort study based on the Japanese long-term care insurance claims.

BACKGROUND: Level of care-need (LOC) is an indicator of elderly person's disability level and is officially used to determine the care services provided in Japan's long-term care insurance (LTCI) system. The 2018 Japan Floods, which struck western Japan in July 2018, were the country's second largest water disaster. This study determined the extent to which the disaster affected the LOC of victims and compared it with that of non-victims. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study, based on the Japanese long-term care insurance claims from two months before (May 2018) to five months after the disaster (December 2018) in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures, which were the most severely damaged areas in the country. A code indicating victim status, certified by a residential municipality, was used to distinguish between victims and non-victims. Those aged 64 years or younger, those who had the most severe LOC before the disaster, and those whose LOC increased even before the disaster were excluded. The primary endpoint was the augmentation of pre-disaster LOC after the disaster, which was evaluated using the survival time analysis. Age, gender, and type of care service were used as covariates. RESULTS: Of the total 193,723 participants, 1,407 (0.7%) were certified disaster victims. Five months after the disaster, 135 (9.6%) of victims and 14,817 (7.7%) of non-victims experienced the rise of LOC. The victim group was significantly more likely to experience an augmentation of LOC than the non-victim group (adjusted hazard ratio 1.24; 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.45). CONCLUSIONS: Older people who were affected by the disaster needed more care than before and the degree of care-need increase was substantially more than non-victims. The result suggests that natural disasters generate more demand for care services among the older people, and incur more resources and cost for society than before.

Development, reliability, and validity of a self-assessment scale for dementia care management.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop a self-assessment scale for care management of people with dementia and examine its reliability and validity. METHODS: Based on Bloom's Taxonomy, previous research, and experts' opinions on dementia and care management, a scale consisting of 18 items was developed to assess care managers' attitudes, knowledge, and skills in their management of people with dementia. To examine the scale's reliability and validity, data were collected from 638 care managers. Construct validity using exploratory factor analysis, known-group validity, and internal consistency reliability of the scale were evaluated. RESULTS: Exploratory factor analysis supported the construct validity with a four-factor model and explained 59.1% of the total variance. Following were the four factors: Factor I 'Person centred care'; Factor II 'Understanding of disease characteristics, treatment and care'; Factor III 'Understanding of people with dementia and care management according to their characteristics'; and Factor IV 'Utilization of local resources surrounding people with dementia'. Regarding the known-group validity, results showed that the group with a qualified chief care manager scored significantly higher than the group without one on Factors I (P = 0.013) and III (P = 0.026). Cronbach's alpha coefficient for the 18 items was 0.928. CONCLUSIONS: The findings prove that the scale has acceptable reliability and validity, and can help care managers reflect on their practice. Future research is desirable to measure the validation of change in the scale.

How the 2018 Japan Floods Impacted Nursing Home Admissions for Older Persons: A Longitudinal Study Using the Long-Term Care Insurance Comprehensive Database.

OBJECTIVES: As disasters become more frequent because of global warming, countries across the world are seeking ways to protect vulnerable older populations. Although these conditions may increase nursing home admission (NHA) rates for older persons, we know of no studies that have directly tested this hypothesis. DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We analyzed data from long-term care insurance (LTCI) users in 3 Japanese prefectures that incurred heavy damage from the 2018 Japan Floods, which is the largest recorded flooding disaster in national history. Specifically, we extracted NHA data from the LTCI comprehensive database, both for disaster-affected and unaffected individuals. METHODS: We employed the Cox proportional hazards model to calculate multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for NHAs within a 6-month period following the 2018 Japan Floods, with adjustments for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Of the 187,861 individuals who used LTCI services during the investigated period, we identified 2156 (1.1%) as disaster affected. The HR for NHA was significantly higher for disaster-affected (vs unaffected) individuals (adjusted HR 3.23: 95% CI 2.88‒3.64), and also higher than the HRs for older age (90-94 years vs 65-69 years: 2.29, CI 1.93‒2.70), cognitive impairment (severe impairment vs normal: 1.40, CI 1.25‒1.57), and physical function (bedridden vs independent: 2.27, CI 1.83‒2.70). According to our subgroup analyses, the adjusted HR for disaster-affected individuals unable to feed themselves was 6.00 (CI 3.68‒9.79), with a significant interaction between the 2 variables (P = .01). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Natural disasters increase the risk of NHA for older persons, especially those who are unable to feed themselves. Health care providers and policymakers should understand and prepare for this emerging risk factor.

Impact of the 2018 Japan Floods on benzodiazepine use: a longitudinal analysis based on the National Database of Health Insurance Claims.

PURPOSE: Natural disaster has an impact on mental health. The 2018 Japan Floods, which took place in July 2018 were one of the largest water disasters in Japan's recorded history. We aimed to evaluate the change in the number of benzodiazepine prescriptions by physicians before and after the disaster. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study based on the National Database of Health Insurance Claims was conducted in the flood-stricken areas between July 2017 and June 2019. The subjects were divided between victims and non-victims according to certification by local governments. Members of both groups were then categorized into three groups based on their pre-flood use of benzodiazepines: non-user, occasional user, and continuous user. Difference-in-differences (DID) analysis with a logistic regression model was conducted to estimate the effect of the disaster among victims by comparing the occurrence of benzodiazepine prescriptions before and after the disaster. RESULTS: Of 5,000,129 people enrolled, 31,235 were victims. Among all participants, the mean prescription rate for benzodiazepines in victims before the disaster (11.3%) increased to 11.8% after the disaster, while that in non-victims (8.3%) decreased to 7.9%. The DID analysis revealed that benzodiazepine prescription among victims significantly increased immediately after the disaster (adjusted ratio of odds ratios (ROR) 1.07: 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.11), and the effect of the disaster persisted even 1 year after the disaster (adjusted ROR 1.2: 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.24). CONCLUSION: The flood increased the number of benzodiazepines prescriptions among victims, and the effect persisted for at least 1 year.

Discontinuation of long-term care among persons affected by the 2018 Japan Floods: a longitudinal study using the Long-term Care Insurance Comprehensive Database.

BACKGROUND: Most older people with disabilities or illnesses continue to use long-term care (LTC) services for the rest of their lives. However, disasters can cause a discontinuation of LTC services, which usually means tragic outcomes of affected persons. In view of the recent progression of population aging and the increase in natural disasters, this study focuses on the impact of disasters on older people's discontinuation of LTC services, and those more risk of such discontinuation than others. However, current evidence is scarce. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study with 259,081 subjects, 2,762 of whom had been affected by disaster and 256,319 who had not been affected during the 2018 Japan Floods. The sample in the three most disaster-affected prefectures was drawn from the Long-term Care Insurance Comprehensive Database and included older people certified with care-need level. The observation period was two months before the disaster and five months after it. We calculated the hazard ratio (HR) of municipality-certified subjects affected by the disaster versus those who were not. Subgroup analyses were conducted for categories of individual-, facility- and region-associated factors. RESULTS: Affected persons were twice as likely to discontinue LTC services than those who were not affected (adjusted HR, 2.06 95% CI, 1.91-2.23). 34% of affected persons whose facilities were closed discontinued their LTC services at five months after the disaster. A subgroup analysis showed that the risk of discontinuing LTC services for affected persons compared to those who were not affected in the relatively younger subgroup (age < 80: adjusted HR, 2.55; 95% CI, 2.20-2.96 vs. age ≥ 80 : 1.91; 1.75-2.10), and the subgroup requiring a lower level of care (low: 3.16; 2.74-3.66 vs. high: 1.71; 1.50-1.96) were more likely to discontinue than the older and higher care level subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: A natural disaster has a significant effect on the older people's discontinuation of LTC services. The discontinuations are supposedly caused by affected persons' death, hospitalization, forced relocation of individuals, or the service provider's incapacity. Accordingly, it is important to recognize the risk of disasters and take measures to avoid discontinuation to protect older persons' quality of life.

Effects of the 2018 Japan Floods on long-term care insurance costs in Japan: retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of torrential rains and floods around the world. Estimating the costs of these disasters is one of the five global research priorities identified by WHO. The 2018 Japan Floods hit western Japan causing extensive destruction and many deaths, especially among vulnerable elderly. Such affected elderly would need long-term care due to the various health problems caused by the disaster. A Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) system provides care services in Japan. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on LTCI costs and service utilization. METHODS: The participants of this retrospective cohort study were all verified persons utilizing LTCI services in Hiroshima, Okayama and Ehime prefectures. The observation period was from 2 months before to 6 months after the disaster. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to examine the association between disaster status (victims or non-victims) and the monthly total costs of LTCI service (with gamma-distribution/log-link) by residential environment (home or facility). Among home residents, we also examined each service utilization (home-based service, short-stay service and facility service), using the GEEs. After the GEEs, we estimated Average Marginal Effects (AME) over all observation periods by months as the attributable disaster effect. RESULTS: The total number of participants was 279,578. There were 3024 flood victims. The disaster was associated with significantly higher total costs. The AME for home residents at 2 months after was $214 (Standard Error (SE): 12, p < 0.001), which was the highest through the observation period. Among facility residents, the AME immediately after the disaster increased by up to $850 (SE: 29, p < 0.001). The service utilization among home residents showed a different trend for each service. The AME of home-based services decreased by up to - 15.2% (SE:1.3, p < 0.001). The AME for short-stay service increased by up to 8.2% (SE: 0.9, p < 0.001) and the AME for facility service increased by up to 7.4% (SE: 0.7, p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 2018 Japan Floods caused an increase in LTCI costs and the utilization of short-stay and facility services, and a decrease in utilization of home-based services.

Drug costs in long-term care facilities under a per diem bundled payment scheme in Japan.

AIM: The present study aimed to evaluate drug costs per resident at Japanese intermediate care facilities for older adults (called Roken) in relation to drug utilization after admission to these facilities. The payment, including coverage of drugs, is mainly determined by the resident's long-term care needs. METHODS: A nationwide drug utilization survey was carried out. The participants were 1324 residents of 350 Roken (up to five individuals per facility) who were admitted in 2015 and agreed to participate in this study. Drug costs per resident per month at admission and 2 months later were calculated for drugs prescribed for regular use. Associations between characteristics of the residents and drug costs were examined. RESULTS: A wide variation in drug costs with a long right tail was observed. Median drug costs were $77 (interquartile range $34-147) at admission, and $46 (interquartile range $19-98) in month 2. There was no apparent association between the level of long-term care needs and drug costs, adjusting for sex, age and main place of residence before admission. Anti-dementia drugs accounted for the largest portion of total drug costs at admission (15.4%) and in month 2 (12.4%). The average drug cost per user was also the highest for anti-dementia drugs ($90.2 per user per month), followed by drugs for Parkinson's disease ($70.3). The proportion of generic drugs across all drug classes examined increased after admission. CONCLUSIONS: These findings might suggest that implementation of the bundled payment scheme would be effective for the reduction of medication costs in institutional long-term care. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 667-672.

Identifying drug substances of screening tool for older persons' appropriate prescriptions for Japanese.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, the Japan Geriatric Society (JGS) updated "the Guidelines for Medical Treatment and its Safety in the elderly," accompanied with the Screening Tool for Older Persons' Appropriate Prescriptions for Japanese (STOPP-J): "drugs to be prescribed with special caution" and "drugs to consider starting." The JGS proposed the STOPP-J to contribute to improving prescribing quality; however, each decision should be carefully based on medical knowledge. The STOPP-J shows examples of commonly prescribed drug substances, but not all relevant drugs. This research aimed to identify substances using such coding, as a standardized classification system would support medication monitoring and pharmacoepidemiologic research using such health-related information. METHODS: A voluntary team of three physicians and two pharmacists identified possible approved medicines based on the STOPP-J, and matched certain drug substances to the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical Classification (ATC) and the Japanese price list as of 2017 February. Injectables and externally used drugs were excluded, except for self-injecting insulin, since the STOPP-J guidelines are intended to cover medicines used chronically for more than one month. Some vaccines are not available in the Japanese price list since they not reimbursed through the national health insurance. RESULTS: The ATC 5th level was not available for 39 of the 235 identified substances, resulting in their classification at the ATC 4th level. Furthermore, among 26 combinations, 10 products were matched directly to the ATC 5th level of the exact substances, and others were linked to the ATC representing the combination or divided into multiple substances for classification if the combination was not listed in the ATC. CONCLUSION: This initial work demonstrates the challenge of matching ATC codes and the Japan standard commodity classification codes corresponding to STOPP-J substances. Since coding facilitates database analysis, the proposed drug list could be applied to research using large databases to examine prescribing patterns in patients older than 75 years or who are frail. Since ATC is not available for some substances, Japanese medicines need the process to be registered in the ATC for an effective screening tool to be developed for STOPP-J.

Quantifying the Balance Between Total Bone Formation and Total Bone Resorption: An Index of Net Bone Formation.

CONTEXT: Bone gain vs loss across the skeleton loss depends on the balance between total bone formation and total bone resorption. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to determine whether resorption and formation markers can be combined to gauge net bone formation across the skeleton. DESIGN: The study included a cohort followed up across menopause transition (Study of Women's Health Across the Nation). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling women, 42-52 years old, premenopausal or early perimenopausal at baseline, participated in the study. OUTCOME: The study included the following measures: 1) bone balance index (BBI) created by estimating the relationship between resorption (urinary N-telopeptide) and formation (osteocalcin) markers when the total formation equals the total resorption in 685 women with stable bone mineral density (BMD) (>5 y before the final menstrual period [FMP]) and applying this relationship to measured bone turnover markers in 216 women beginning to lose bone (≤2 y from FMP); and 2) annualized percentage declines over the following 3-4 years in the lumbar spine (LS) and femoral neck (FN) BMD. RESULTS: Adjusted for covariates, the BBI was greater (more favorable) in women with a greater body mass index (P = .03) and lower (less favorable) in women closer to the FMP (P = .007). Each SD decrement in BBI was associated with 0.27%/y faster LS BMD decline (P 0.04) and a 38% higher odds of faster-than-average loss of LS bone mass (P = .008, c-statistic 0.76). BBI was not associated with decline in FN BMD. Urinary N-telopeptide alone was not associated with either LS or FN BMD decline. CONCLUSIONS: An index that quantifies net bone formation vs resorption can be created from bone turnover markers and may help identify individuals at high risk for LS bone loss.

Fracture risk assessment without race/ethnicity information.

CONTEXT: Dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry-derived bone mineral density (BMD) does not explain interracial differences in fracture risk; thus, BMD-based fracture risk assessment requires patient race/ethnicity information and ethnicity-specific BMD reference databases. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to investigate whether composite femoral neck strength indices, which integrate dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry-derived femoral neck size, femoral neck BMD, and body size, will allow fracture risk assessment without requiring race/ethnicity information. DESIGN: This was a prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1940 community-dwelling women aged 42-53 yr from four race/ethnicity groups (968 Caucasian, 512 African-American, 239 Japanese, and 221 Chinese) were followed up for 9 yr. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS: Self-reported, nondigital, noncraniofacial fractures were measured. RESULTS: Two hundred and two women (10.4%) sustained fractures and 82 (4.3%) had minimum-trauma fractures. Each sd increment in any of the strength indices was associated with a 34-41% reduction in fracture hazard over 9 yr (each P<0.001). Race/ethnicity predicted fracture hazard independent of BMD (P=0.02) but did not predict fracture hazard independent of any of the composite indices (P=0.11-0.22). Addition of race/ethnicity did not improve risk discrimination ability of the strength indices, but did significantly improve the discrimination ability of BMD. The discrimination ability of BMD with race/ethnicity was not statistically different from that of any of the strength indices without race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Composite strength indices of the femoral neck can predict fracture risk without race/ethnicity information as accurately as bone mineral density does in combination with race/ethnicity information and therefore would allow risk prediction in people of mixed race/ethnicity and in groups without a BMD reference database.