Modifiable risk factors, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 155 722 individuals from 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries (PURE): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Global estimates of the effect of common modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality are largely based on data from separate studies, using different methodologies. The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study overcomes these limitations by using similar methods to prospectively measure the effect of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality across 21 countries (spanning five continents) grouped by different economic levels. METHODS: In this multinational, prospective cohort study, we examined associations for 14 potentially modifiable risk factors with mortality and cardiovascular disease in 155 722 participants without a prior history of cardiovascular disease from 21 high-income, middle-income, or low-income countries (HICs, MICs, or LICs). The primary outcomes for this paper were composites of cardiovascular disease events (defined as cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) and mortality. We describe the prevalence, hazard ratios (HRs), and population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for cardiovascular disease and mortality associated with a cluster of behavioural factors (ie, tobacco use, alcohol, diet, physical activity, and sodium intake), metabolic factors (ie, lipids, blood pressure, diabetes, obesity), socioeconomic and psychosocial factors (ie, education, symptoms of depression), grip strength, and household and ambient pollution. Associations between risk factors and the outcomes were established using multivariable Cox frailty models and using PAFs for the entire cohort, and also by countries grouped by income level. Associations are presented as HRs and PAFs with 95% CIs. FINDINGS: Between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, 155 722 participants were enrolled and followed up for measurement of risk factors. 17 249 (11·1%) participants were from HICs, 102 680 (65·9%) were from MICs, and 35 793 (23·0%) from LICs. Approximately 70% of cardiovascular disease cases and deaths in the overall study population were attributed to modifiable risk factors. Metabolic factors were the predominant risk factors for cardiovascular disease (41·2% of the PAF), with hypertension being the largest (22·3% of the PAF). As a cluster, behavioural risk factors contributed most to deaths (26·3% of the PAF), although the single largest risk factor was a low education level (12·5% of the PAF). Ambient air pollution was associated with 13·9% of the PAF for cardiovascular disease, although different statistical methods were used for this analysis. In MICs and LICs, household air pollution, poor diet, low education, and low grip strength had stronger effects on cardiovascular disease or mortality than in HICs. INTERPRETATION: Most cardiovascular disease cases and deaths can be attributed to a small number of common, modifiable risk factors. While some factors have extensive global effects (eg, hypertension and education), others (eg, household air pollution and poor diet) vary by a country's economic level. Health policies should focus on risk factors that have the greatest effects on averting cardiovascular disease and death globally, with additional emphasis on risk factors of greatest importance in specific groups of countries. FUNDING: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Associations of fats and carbohydrate intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 18 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between macronutrients and cardiovascular disease and mortality is controversial. Most available data are from European and North American populations where nutrition excess is more likely, so their applicability to other populations is unclear. METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, epidemiological cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years (enrolled between Jan 1, 2003, and March 31, 2013) in 18 countries with a median follow-up of 7·4 years (IQR 5·3-9·3). Dietary intake of 135 335 individuals was recorded using validated food frequency questionnaires. The primary outcomes were total mortality and major cardiovascular events (fatal cardiovascular disease, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). Secondary outcomes were all myocardial infarctions, stroke, cardiovascular disease mortality, and non-cardiovascular disease mortality. Participants were categorised into quintiles of nutrient intake (carbohydrate, fats, and protein) based on percentage of energy provided by nutrients. We assessed the associations between consumption of carbohydrate, total fat, and each type of fat with cardiovascular disease and total mortality. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) using a multivariable Cox frailty model with random intercepts to account for centre clustering. FINDINGS: During follow-up, we documented 5796 deaths and 4784 major cardiovascular disease events. Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with an increased risk of total mortality (highest [quintile 5] vs lowest quintile [quintile 1] category, HR 1·28 [95% CI 1·12-1·46], ptrend=0·0001) but not with the risk of cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular disease mortality. Intake of total fat and each type of fat was associated with lower risk of total mortality (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, total fat: HR 0·77 [95% CI 0·67-0·87], ptrend<0·0001; saturated fat, HR 0·86 [0·76-0·99], ptrend=0·0088; monounsaturated fat: HR 0·81 [0·71-0·92], ptrend<0·0001; and polyunsaturated fat: HR 0·80 [0·71-0·89], ptrend<0·0001). Higher saturated fat intake was associated with lower risk of stroke (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, HR 0·79 [95% CI 0·64-0·98], ptrend=0·0498). Total fat and saturated and unsaturated fats were not significantly associated with risk of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular disease mortality. INTERPRETATION: High carbohydrate intake was associated with higher risk of total mortality, whereas total fat and individual types of fat were related to lower total mortality. Total fat and types of fat were not associated with cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular disease mortality, whereas saturated fat had an inverse association with stroke. Global dietary guidelines should be reconsidered in light of these findings. FUNDING: Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Association of Household Wealth Index, Educational Status, and Social Capital with Hypertension Awareness, Treatment, and Control in South Asia.

OBJECTIVE: Hypertension control rates are low in South Asia. To determine association of measures of socioeconomic status (wealth, education, and social capital) with hypertension awareness, treatment, and control among urban and rural subjects in these countries we performed the present study. METHODS: We enrolled 33,423 subjects aged 35-70 years (women 56%, rural 53%, low-education status 51%, low household wealth 25%, low-social capital 33%) in 150 communities in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh during 2003-2009. Prevalence of hypertension and its awareness, treatment, and control status and their association with wealth, education, and social capital were determined. RESULTS: Age-, sex-, and location-adjusted prevalence of hypertension in men was 31.5% (23.9-40.2%) and women was 32.6% (24.9-41.5%) with variations in prevalence across study sites (urban 30-56%, rural 11-43%). Prevalence was significantly greater in urban locations, older subjects, and participants with more wealth, greater education, and lower social capital index. Hypertension awareness was in 40.4% (urban 45.9, rural 32.5), treatment in 31.9% (urban 37.6, rural 23.6), and control in 12.9% (urban 15.4, rural 9.3). Control was lower in men and younger subjects. Hypertension awareness, treatment, and control were significantly lower, respectively, in lowest vs. highest wealth index tertile (26.2 vs. 50.6%, 16.9 vs. 44.0%, and 6.9 vs. 17.3%, P < 0.001) and lowest vs. highest educational status tertile (31.2 vs. 48.4%, 21.8 vs. 42.1%, and 7.8 vs. 19.2%, P < 0.001) while insignificant differences were observed in lowest vs. highest social capital index (38.2 vs. 36.1%, 35.1 vs. 27.8%, and 12.5 vs. 9.1%). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows low hypertension awareness, treatment, and control in South Asia. Lower wealth and educational status are important in low hypertension awareness, treatment, and control.

Socioeconomic factors and use of secondary preventive therapies for cardiovascular diseases in South Asia: The PURE study.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine the association of socioeconomic factors on use of cardioprotective medicines in known coronary heart disease (CHD) or stroke in South Asia. METHODS: We enrolled 33,423 subjects aged 35-70 years (women 56%, rural 53%, low education 51%, low household wealth 25%) in 150 communities in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh during 2003-2009. Information regarding socioeconomic status, disease conditions and treatments was recorded. We studied influence of rural location, educational status and household wealth on use of drug therapies. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. RESULTS: CHD was reported in 683 (2.0%), stroke 316 (0.9%), and CHD/stroke in 970 (2.9%). Median duration since diagnosis was four years. Participants with CHD/stroke were older with greater prevalence of smoking, overweight, hypertension and diabetes (p < 0.01). In patients with CHD, stroke and CHD/stroke, respectively, use (%) of antiplatelets was 11.6, 3.8 and 9.3, beta-blockers 11.9, 7.0 and 10.4, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers 6.4, 1.9 and 5.3 and statins 4.8, 0.6 and 3.5. In CHD/stroke patients any one of these drugs was used in 18.1%, any two in 7.2%, any three in 2.8% and none in 81.5%. Details of drug dose were not available. Use of drugs was significantly lower in rural low education and low wealth index participants (all p < 0.01). Low wealth index participants had the lowest use of these therapies with no attenuation after multiple adjustments. CONCLUSION: The use of secondary preventive drug therapies in patients with known CHD or stroke in South Asia is low with over 80% receiving none of the effective drug treatments. Low household wealth is the most important determinant.

Exploring the Determinants of Suicidal Behavior: Conventional and Emergent Risk (DISCOVER): a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Suicidal behavior is a growing public health concern resulting in morbidity and premature death. Although certain factors such as age, sex, and psychiatric disorders have been consistently reported to be associated with suicidal behavior, other factors including biological markers, diet, and physical activity may also influence suicidal behavior. The purpose of this pilot study was to evaluate the feasibility of conducting a full-scale study to identify the conventional and novel risk factors of suicidal behavior in individuals who made a recent suicide attempt. METHODS: This pilot study was a case-control study of participants with recent (within 1 month of admission) suicide attempts admitted to hospital and compared to two control groups: 1) psychiatric inpatient participants without a history of suicide attempts and 2) community-based controls. We collected information on demographic variables, circumstances of suicide attempts (for cases), medical and psychiatric diagnoses, behavioral patterns, physical measurements, and social factors. Blood and urine samples were also collected for biological markers. Feasibility outcomes are as follows: 1) 50 % of all eligible cases will consent to participate, 2) 50 cases and 100 controls per year can be recruited, and 3) at least 80 % of the participants will provide blood samples for DNA and biological markers. RESULTS: We recruited 179 participants in total; 51 cases, 57 psychiatric controls without suicide attempt, and 71 non-psychiatric controls in Hamilton, Ontario. Recruitment rate was 70 % (213/304), and we obtained urine and blood specimens from 90 % (191/213) of participants. Questionnaire completion rates were high, and data quality was very good with few data-related queries to resolve. We learned that cases tended to be hospitalized for long periods of time and the suicide attempt occurred more than a month ago in many of the cases; therefore, we expanded our inclusion criterion related to timing of suicide attempt to 3 months instead of 1 month. CONCLUSIONS: The study procedures needed certain modifications including extending the time between suicide attempt and date of recruitment, and more detailed questionnaires related to diet were necessary while other questionnaires such as social support needed to be shortened. Overall, this study showed that it is feasible to conduct a larger-scale study.

Relative validity of an FFQ to estimate daily food and nutrient intakes for Chilean adults.

OBJECTIVE: FFQ are commonly used to rank individuals by their food and nutrient intakes in large epidemiological studies. The purpose of the present study was to develop and validate an FFQ to rank individuals participating in an ongoing Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study in Chile. DESIGN: An FFQ and four 24 h dietary recalls were completed over 1 year. Pearson correlation coefficients, energy-adjusted and de-attenuated correlations and weighted kappa were computed between the dietary recalls and the FFQ. The level of agreement between the two dietary assessment methods was evaluated by Bland-Altman analysis. SETTING: Temuco, Chile. SUBJECTS: Overall, 166 women and men enrolled in the present study. One hundred men and women participated in FFQ development and sixty-six individuals participated in FFQ validation. RESULTS: The FFQ consisted of 109 food items. For nutrients, the crude correlation coefficients between the dietary recalls and FFQ varied from 0.14 (protein) to 0.44 (fat). Energy adjustment and de-attenuation improved correlation coefficients and almost all correlation coefficients exceeded 0.40. Similar correlation coefficients were observed for food groups; the highest de-attenuated energy adjusted correlation coefficient was found for margarine and butter (0.75) and the lowest for potatoes (0.12). CONCLUSIONS: The FFQ showed moderate to high agreement for most nutrients and food groups, and can be used to rank individuals based on energy, nutrient and food intakes. The validation study was conducted in a unique setting and indicated that the tool is valid for use by adults in Chile.

Use of secondary prevention drugs for cardiovascular disease in the community in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries (the PURE Study): a prospective epidemiological survey.

BACKGROUND: Although most cardiovascular disease occurs in low-income and middle-income countries, little is known about the use of effective secondary prevention medications in these communities. We aimed to assess use of proven effective secondary preventive drugs (antiplatelet drugs, ß blockers, angiotensin-converting-enzyme [ACE] inhibitors or angiotensin-receptor blockers [ARBs], and statins) in individuals with a history of coronary heart disease or stroke. METHODS: In the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study, we recruited individuals aged 35-70 years from rural and urban communities in countries at various stages of economic development. We assessed rates of previous cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease or stroke) and use of proven effective secondary preventive drugs and blood-pressure-lowering drugs with standardised questionnaires, which were completed by telephone interviews, household visits, or on patient's presentation to clinics. We report estimates of drug use at national, community, and individual levels. FINDINGS: We enrolled 153,996 adults from 628 urban and rural communities in countries with incomes classified as high (three countries), upper-middle (seven), lower-middle (three), or low (four) between January, 2003, and December, 2009. 5650 participants had a self-reported coronary heart disease event (median 5·0 years previously [IQR 2·0-10·0]) and 2292 had stroke (4·0 years previously [2·0-8·0]). Overall, few individuals with cardiovascular disease took antiplatelet drugs (25·3%), ß blockers (17·4%), ACE inhibitors or ARBs (19·5%), or statins (14·6%). Use was highest in high-income countries (antiplatelet drugs 62·0%, ß blockers 40·0%, ACE inhibitors or ARBs 49·8%, and statins 66·5%), lowest in low-income countries (8·8%, 9·7%, 5·2%, and 3·3%, respectively), and decreased in line with reduction of country economic status (p(trend)<0·0001 for every drug type). Fewest patients received no drugs in high-income countries (11·2%), compared with 45·1% in upper middle-income countries, 69·3% in lower middle-income countries, and 80·2% in low-income countries. Drug use was higher in urban than rural areas (antiplatelet drugs 28·7% urban vs 21·3% rural, ß blockers 23·5%vs 15·6%, ACE inhibitors or ARBs 22·8%vs 15·5%, and statins 19·9%vs 11·6%; all p<0·0001), with greatest variation in poorest countries (p(interaction)<0·0001 for urban vs rural differences by country economic status). Country-level factors (eg, economic status) affected rates of drug use more than did individual-level factors (eg, age, sex, education, smoking status, body-mass index, and hypertension and diabetes statuses). INTERPRETATION: Because use of secondary prevention medications is low worldwide-especially in low-income countries and rural areas-systematic approaches are needed to improve the long-term use of basic, inexpensive, and effective drugs. FUNDING: Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).