MEFIB-Index and MAST-Score in the assessment of hepatic decompensation in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatosis liver disease-Individual participant data meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data regarding the longitudinal association between MEFIB-Index (MRE combined with FIB-4) versus MAST-Score (MRI-aspartate aminotransferase) and hepatic decompensation. AIM: To examine the longitudinal association between MEFIB-Index versus MAST-Score in predicting hepatic decompensation in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). METHODS: This was a longitudinal, retrospective analysis of subjects from United States, Japan, and Turkey who underwent a baseline MRE and MRI-PDFF and were followed for hepatic decompensation. Cox-proportional hazard analyses were used to assess the association between MEFIB-Index versus MAST-Score with a composite primary outcome (hepatic decompensation) defined as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, and varices needing treatment. RESULTS: This meta-analysis of individual participants (IPDMA) included 454 patients (58% women) with a mean (±SD) age of 56.0 (±13.5) years. The MEFIB-Index (MRE ≥3.3 kPa + FIB 4 ≥1.6) and MAST-Score (>0.242) were positive for 34% and 9% of the sample, respectively. At baseline, 23 patients met criteria for hepatic decompensation. Among 297 patients with available longitudinal data with a median (IQR) of 4.2 (5.0) years of follow-up, 25 incident cases met criteria for hepatic decompensation. A positive MEFIB-Index [HR = 49.22 (95% CI: 6.23-388.64, p < 0.001)] and a positive MAST-Score [HR = 3.86 (95% CI: 1.46-10.17, p < 0.001)] were statistically significant predictors of the incident hepatic decompensation. MEFIB-Index (c-statistic: 0.89, standard error (SE) = 0.02) was statistically superior to the MAST-Score (c-statistic: 0.81, SE = 0.03) (p < 0.0001) in predicting hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSION: A combination of MRI-based biomarker and blood tests, MEFIB-Index and MAST-Score can predict the risk of hepatic decompensation in patients with MASLD.

Clinical usefulness of geriatric assessment in elderly patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma receiving sorafenib or lenvatinib therapy.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic strategies for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (u-HCC) in geriatric patients are important for real-world practice. However, there remain no established biomarkers or therapeutic strategies regarding the best second-line agent after atezolizumab plus bevacizumab therapy. AIM: In this study, we investigated the usefulness of modified Geriatric 8 (mG8) score in examining elderly patients (≥75 years old) with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (u-HCC) using sorafenib or lenvatinib as first-line therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study assessed 101 elderly patients with u-HCC for their mG8 score (excluding elements of age from 8 items) and classified them into 2 groups according to their mG8 score: ≥11 as the high-score group and ≤ 10 as the low-score group. Among those taking sorafenib, no significant differences were noted in overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) between low and high mG8 score groups. Only modified albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade (2b/3 vs. 1/2a: HR 0.34; 95% CI, 0.17-0.69; p = .0029) was significantly associated with OS. Among those taking lenvatinib, patients with a high mG8 score (n = 26) had longer survival than those with a low mG8 score (n = 10) (20.0 months vs. 7.7 months: HR 0.31, 95% CI 0.11-0.89; p = .029). Intrahepatic tumor volume (<50% vs. ≥50%: HR 16.7; 95% CI, 1.71-163; p = .016) and α-fetoprotein (AFP) (<400 vs. ≥400: HR 3.38; 95% CI 0.84-19.7; p = .031) remained significant factors independently associated with OS. CONCLUSIONS: The mG8 score may contribute to making a decision when considering either sorafenib or lenvatinib as a treatment option for u-HCC in elderly patients.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Assessment for Patients With Advanced Fibrosis After Eradication of Hepatitis C Virus.

The identification of patients with advanced fibrosis who do not need any further hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance after the eradication of hepatitis C is pivotal. In this study, we developed a simple serum-based risk model that could identify patients with low-risk HCC. This was a nationwide multicenter study involving 16 Hospitals in Japan. Patients with advanced fibrosis (1,325 in a derivation cohort and 508 in a validation cohort) who achieved sustained virological responses at 24 weeks after treatment (SVR24) were enrolled. The HCC risk model at any point after SVR24 and its change were evaluated, and subsequent HCC development was analyzed. Based on the multivariable analysis, patients fulfilling all of the factors (GAF4 criteria: gamma-glutamyl transferase < 28 IU/L, alpha-fetoprotein < 4.0 ng/mL, and Fibrosis-4 Index < 4.28) were classified as low-risk and others were classified as high-risk. When patients were stratified at the SVR24, and 1 year, and 2 years after SVR24, subsequent HCC development was significantly lower in low-risk patients (0.5-1.1 per 100 person-years in the derivation cohort and 0.9-1.1 per 100 person-years in the validation cohort) than in high-risk patients at each point. HCC risk from 1 year after SVR24 decreased in patients whose risk improved from high-risk to low-risk (HCC incidence: 0.6 per 100 person-years [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.163 in the derivation cohort] and 1.3 per 100 person-years [HR = 0.239 in the validation cohort]) than in those with sustained high risk. Conclusion: The HCC risk model based on simple serum markers at any point after SVR and its change can identify patients with advanced fibrosis who are at low HCC risk, and these patients may be able to reduce HCC surveillance.

Cost-Effectiveness of Lenvatinib in the Treatment of Patients With Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinomas in Japan: An Analysis Using Data From Japanese Patients in the REFLECT Trial.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer-related mortality in Japan. Prognosis is poor, and until recently sorafenib was the only treatment option available for patients with unresectable disease. Lenvatinib is the first therapy to demonstrate noninferiority to sorafenib. An analysis was conducted using clinical data from Japanese patients in the phase III REFLECT trial to assess the cost-effectiveness of lenvatinib versus sorafenib for first-line treatment of unresectable HCC in Japan. METHODS: A partitioned survival model was implemented adopting the perspective of the Japanese healthcare system, with costs and outcomes modeled over a lifetime horizon and using a discount rate of 2%, as per Japanese guidelines. Population data from the Japanese subpopulation of REFLECT were used to extrapolate outcomes, and costs and resource use were based on Japanese sources. The Japanese tariff was applied to EQ-5D data collected during the REFLECT clinical trial to obtain utility values reflecting the preferences of the Japanese population. RESULTS: Compared with sorafenib, lenvatinib is dominant because it is associated with a reduction in incremental costs of ¥156 799 and incremental quality-adjusted life-years of 0.31. These results were robust to changes in key assumptions, and probabilistic outcomes aligned with deterministic outcomes. CONCLUSION: Given the use of Japan-specific data in the cost-effectiveness model, it is expected that the use of lenvatinib as a first-line treatment in Japan will be associated with cost savings and improved clinical outcomes versus sorafenib for patients with unresectable HCC.

Risk assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma development by magnetic resonance elastography in chronic hepatitis C patients who achieved sustained virological responses by direct-acting antivirals.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development after sustained virological response (SVR) is clinically important, and the usefulness of noninvasive markers for prediction HCC have been reported. The aim of this study was to compare the prediction accuracy for HCC development by noninvasive markers. A total of 346 patients with chronic hepatitis C without history of HCC who achieved SVR through direct-acting antivirals were included. Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) and serum fibrosis markers were measured 12 weeks after the end of treatment, and the subsequent HCC development was examined. The mean observation period was 26.4 ± 7.9 months, and 24 patients developed HCC. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of liver stiffness by MRE, Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive mac-2 binding protein and FIB-4 for predicting HCC within 3 years was 0.743, 0.697 and 0.647, respectively. The 1/2/3-year rates of HCC development in patients with liver stiffness ≥3.75 KPa were 6.6%, 11.9% and 14.5%, whereas they were 1.4%, 2.5% and 2.5% in patients with liver stiffness <3.75 KPa (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that liver stiffness ≥3.75 was an independent predictive factor for HCC development (hazard ratio, 3.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-9.99). In subgroup analysis, there were 132 patients who were <73 years old and had liver stiffness <3.75 KPa, and no HCC development was observed in these patients. Diagnostic accuracy for predicting HCC development was higher in MRE than serum fibrosis markers and measurement of liver stiffness by MRE could identify patients with high and low risk of HCC development after SVR.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of lenvatinib treatment for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) compared with sorafenib in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Lenvatinib demonstrated a treatment effect on overall survival by the statistical confirmation of non-inferiority to sorafenib for the first-line treatment of uHCC. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of lenvatinib compared with sorafenib for patients with uHCC in Japan. METHODS: A partitioned-survival model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lenvatinib versus sorafenib when treating uHCC patients over a lifetime horizon and considering total public healthcare expenditure. Efficacy and safety data were extracted from the REFLECT trial. Utility values were derived from the European Quality-of-Life 5-Dimension Questionnaire, conducted with patients enrolled in the REFLECT trial. Direct medical costs, such as primary drug therapy, outpatient visits, diagnostic tests, hospitalization, post-progression therapy, and adverse-event treatments, were included. Cost parameters unavailable in the clinical trial or publications were obtained based on the consolidated clinical standards from a Delphi panel of four Japanese medical experts. RESULTS: For lenvatinib versus sorafenib, the incremental cost was - 406,307 Japanese Yen (JPY), and the incremental life years and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were 0.27 and 0.23, respectively. Thus, lenvatinib dominated sorafenib, due to the mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio falling in the fourth quadrant, conferring more benefit at lower costs compared with sorafenib. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that 81.3% of the simulations were favorable to lenvatinib compared with sorafenib, with a payer's willingness-to-pay-per-QALY of 5 million JPY. CONCLUSIONS: Lenvatinib was cost-effective compared with sorafenib for the first-line treatment of uHCC in Japan.

Non-invasive liver fibrosis assessment correlates with collagen and elastic fiber quantity in patients with hepatitis C virus infection.

AIM: Elastic fiber deposition is a cause of irreversibility of liver fibrosis. However, to date, its relevance to clinical features has not yet been clarified. This study aimed to clarify the correlation between non-invasive markers of fibrosis and fiber quantity, including elastic fiber, obtained from computational analysis. METHODS: This retrospective study included 270 patients evaluated by non-invasive liver fibrosis assessment prior to liver biopsy. Of these patients, 95 underwent magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) and 244 were assessed with Wisteria floribunda agglutinin-positive Mac-2 binding protein (WFA+ -M2BP). Using whole-slide imaging of Elastica van Gieson-stained liver biopsy sections, the quantity of collagen, elastin, and total fiber (elastin + collagen) was determined. RESULTS: The total fiber quantity showed significant linear correlation with fibrosis stage F0-F4. Collagen fiber quantity increased from stage F0 to F4, whereas elastic fiber quantity increased significantly only from stage F2 to F3. Spearman's rank correlation test revealed that non-invasive liver fibrosis assessment significantly correlates with each fiber quantity, including correlation between total fiber quantity and the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index (r = 0.361, P < 0.001), WFA+ -M2BP values (r = 0.404, P < 0.001), and liver stiffness value by MRE (r = 0.615, P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses revealed that the area under ROC for predicting higher elastic fiber (>3.6%) is 0.731 by FIB-4 index, 0.716 by WFA+ -M2BP, and 0.822 by liver stiffness by MRE. CONCLUSION: Liver fibrosis correlates with fiber quantity through non-invasive assessment regardless of fiber type, including elastic fiber. Moreover, MRE is useful for predicting high amounts of elastic fiber.

Novel quantitative assessment system of liver steatosis using a newly developed attenuation measurement method.

AIM: The present study has developed and evaluated the effectiveness of a new echo attenuation measurement function combined with an ultrasonic diagnostic system for the accurate diagnosis of liver steatosis. METHODS: A multicenter prospective study involving patients with chronic hepatitis was carried out. All patients underwent liver biopsy, and attenuation coefficient (ATT) was measured on the same day. The fat area (%) of biopsy specimens was quantitatively evaluated. Correlations between ATT, steatosis grade, and fat area were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 351 patients were enrolled in this study. The median values of fat area for steatosis grades S0, S1, S2, and S3 were 0.6%, 3.2%, 6.4%, and 15.5%, respectively. A significant correlation was found between fat area and steatosis grade (P < 0.001). Similarly, the median values of ATT for steatosis grades S0, S1, S2, and S3 were 0.55, 0.63, 0.69, and 0.85 dB/cm/MHz, respectively, and ATT increased with an increase in the steatosis grade (P < 0.001). Attenuation coefficient was significantly correlated with fat area (r = 0.50, P < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve corresponding to S ≥ 1, S ≥ 2, and S ≥ 3 were 0.79, 0.87, and 0.96, respectively. Similarly, the sensitivity and specificity of S ≥ 1, S ≥ 2, and S ≥ 3 were 72%, 82%, and 87% and 72%, 82%, and 89%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The newly developed ATT measurement for evaluation of liver steatosis was closely correlated with steatosis grade and automated quantification of fat area, and it provides clinically relevant information.

Hepatocellular carcinoma risk assessment using gadoxetic acid-enhanced hepatocyte phase magnetic resonance imaging.

AIM: To investigate whether the patients with hypovascular liver nodules determined on the arterial phase and hypointensity on the hepatocyte phase gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (hypovascular hypointense nodules) are at increased risk of hepatocarcinogenesis, we assessed subsequent typical hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development at any sites of the liver with and without such nodules. METHODS: One hundred and twenty-seven patients with chronic hepatitis B or C and without a history of HCC, including 68 with liver cirrhosis, were divided into those with (non-clean liver group, n = 18) and without (clean liver group, n = 109) hypovascular hypointense nodules. All the patients were followed up for 3 years, and HCC development rates and risk factors were analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazard model, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 17 patients (10 in the non-clean liver group and seven in the clean liver group) developed typical HCC. Cumulative 3-year rates of HCC development were 55.5% in the non-clean liver group and 6.4% in the clean liver group (P < 0.001), and those at the different sites from the initial nodules was also higher in the non-clean liver group (22.2%) than the clean liver group (6.4%) (P = 0.003). Multivariate analysis identified older age (P = 0.024), low platelet counts (P = 0.017) and a non-clean liver (P < 0.001) as independent risk factors for subsequent HCC development. CONCLUSION: Patients with hypovascular hypointense liver nodules are at a higher risk for HCC development at any sites of the liver than those without such nodules.

Pretreatment prediction of anemia progression by pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy in chronic hepatitis C infection: decision-tree analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop a model to predict the development of severe anemia during pegylated interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin combination therapy. METHODS: Data were collected from 1081 genotype 1b chronic hepatitis C patients who were treated at 6 hospitals in Japan. These patients were randomly assigned to a model-building group (n = 691) or an internal validation group (n = 390). Factors predictive of severe anemia (hemoglobin, Hb < 8.5 g/dl) were explored using data-mining analysis. RESULTS: Hb values at baseline, creatinine clearance (Ccr), and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 were used to build a decision-tree model, in which the patients were divided into 5 subgroups based on variable rates of severe anemia ranging from 0.4 to 11.8%. The reproducibility of the model was confirmed by the internal validation group (r² = 0.96). The probability of severe anemia was high in patients whose Hb value was <14 g/dl before treatment (6.5%), especially (a) in those whose Ccr was <80 ml/min (11.8%) and (b) those whose Ccr was ≥ 80 ml/min but whose Hb concentration decline at week 2 was ≥ 2 g/dl (11.5%). The probability of severe anemia was low in the other patients (0.4-2.5%). CONCLUSIONS: The decision-tree model that included Hb values at baseline, Ccr, and an Hb concentration decline by 2 g/dl at week 2 was useful for predicting the probability of severe anemia, and has the potential to support clinical decisions regarding early dose reduction of ribavirin.

Assessment of Kupffer cells by ferumoxides-enhanced MR imaging is beneficial for diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma: comparison of pathological diagnosis and perfusion patterns assessed by CT hepatic arteriography and CT arterioportography.

To investigate the clinical significance of the radiographic assessment of Kupffer cells and hemodynamics in the diagnosis of hepatocellular nodules, both magnetic resonance (MR) imaging enhanced by ferumoxides and CT hepatic arteriography (CTHA)/CT arterioportography (CTAP) were undertaken for 118 patients with 158 primary nodular hepatocellular lesions. The radiographic findings were analyzed in the context of the pathological diagnosis. Among nodules presumed to be pre- or early HCC by CTHA/CTAP, all 13 hyperintense nodules identified by MR imaging (MRI) were found pathologically to be hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In contrast, in 14 hypointense nodules, no advanced (moderately or poorly differentiated) HCC was pathologically identified and none of these progressed to advanced HCC during the follow up period (mean: 24 months). Instead, 78% of these cases were pathologically confirmed as dysplastic nodules. For the 16 lesions undetectable by CTHA/CTAP, four of eight (50%) hypointense nodules turned out to be dysplastic nodules and one hyperintense lesion was HCC. Signal intensity by ferumoxides-enhanced MRI showed a strong correlation with the increase or decrease of Kupffer cells assessed by immunohistochemistry. Assessment of Kupffer cells by ferumoxides-enhanced MRI is beneficial for the accurate diagnosis of primary hepatocellular nodules that are considered borderline or early stage HCC by their hemodynamic profile.