Evaluating Firearm Violence After New Jersey's Cash Bail Reform.

Importance: Reducing the pretrial detention population has been a cornerstone of movements to end mass incarceration. Across many US cities, there are ongoing public debates on policies that would end pretrial detention due to the inability to afford bail, with some raising concerns that doing so would increase community violence. Objective: To evaluate changes in firearm violence after New Jersey's 2017 bail reform policy that eliminated financial barriers to avoiding pretrial detention. Design, Setting, and Participants: This case-control study used synthetic control methods to examine changes in firearm mortality and combined fatal and nonfatal shootings in New Jersey (2014-2019). New Jersey was chosen because it was one of the first states to systematically implement cash bail reform. Outcomes in New Jersey were compared with a weighted combination of 36 states that did not implement any kind of reform to pretrial detention during the study period. Data were analyzed from April 2023 to March 2024. Exposure: Implementation of New Jersey's cash bail reform law in 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Quarterly rates of fatal and nonfatal firearm assault injuries and firearm self-harm injuries per 100 000 people. Results: Although New Jersey's pretrial detention population dramatically decreased under bail reform, the study did not find evidence of increases in overall firearm mortality (average treatment effect on the treated, -0.26 deaths per 100 000) or gun violence (average treatment effect on the treated, -0.24 deaths per 100 000), or within racialized groups during the postpolicy period. Conclusions and Relevance: Incarceration and gun violence are major public health problems impacting racially and economically marginalized groups. Cash bail reform may be an important tool for reducing pretrial detention and advancing health equity without exacerbating community violence.

Death by the minute: Inequities in trauma care for victims of firearm violence.

BACKGROUND: Gunshot wounds (GSWs) remain a significant source of mortality in the United States. Timely delivery of trauma care is known to be critical for survival. We sought to understand the relationship of predicted transport time and death after GSW. Given large racial disparities in firearm violence, we also sought to understand disparities in transport times and death by victim race, an unstudied phenomenon. METHODS: Firearm mortality data were obtained from the Boston Police Department 2005 to 2023. Firearm incidents were mapped using ArcGIS. Predicted transport times for each incident to the closest trauma center were calculated in ArcGIS. Spatial autoregressive models were used to understand the relationship between victim race, transport time to a trauma center, and mortality associated with the shooting incidents. RESULTS: There were 4,545 shooting victims with 758 deaths. Among those who lived, the median transport time was 9.4 minutes (interquartile range, 5.8-13.8) and 10.5 minutes (interquartile range, 6.4-14.6; p = 0.003) for those who died. In the multivariable logistic regression, increased transport time to the nearest trauma center (odds ratio, 1.024; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.04) and age (odds ratio, 1.016; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.02) were associated with mortality. There was a modest difference in median transport time to the nearest trauma center by race with non-Hispanic Black at 10.1 minutes, Black Hispanic 9.2 minutes, White Hispanic 8.5 minutes, and non-Hispanic White 8.3 minutes ( p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the relationship of transport time to a trauma center and death after a GSW. Non-White individuals had significantly longer transport times to a trauma center and predicted mortality would have been lower with White victim transport times. These data underscore the importance of timely trauma care for GSW victims and can be used to direct more equitable trauma systems. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic/Epidemiological; Level III.

Costs of Summer Youth Employment to Prevent Violence: an Analysis and Implementer's Tool.

Gun homicide rates have risen 35% across the USA since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. One promising intervention to prevent violent crime is summer youth employment programs (SYEPs), which provide youth with meaningful workplace experiences, prosocial engagements, and developmental opportunities during the summer months, when many otherwise lack structure. This paper presents a cost analysis of violence prevention-focused SYEPs to help implementers understand the costs generally and in their own community contexts-to advocate for adoption and secure funding of, effectively budget for, and successfully implement SYEPs. Researchers use an ingredient-based costing approach and provide a template for implementers to use and adapt for their context. SYEPs with the goal of reaching youth who are justice-involved or at risk of being victims or perpetrators of violence can cost $3331 per youth assisted, with 54% of this cost directly paid to youth through stipends. Cost per youth is driven by the intensity of the mentoring and support that community organizations provide to the program participants. Knowing the cost per youth assisted can inform further analysis, implementation, and expansion of SYEPs.

Exposure to Neighborhood Racialized Economic Segregation and Reinjury and Violence Perpetration Among Survivors of Violent Injuries.

Importance: Much is unknown about how individual and neighborhood factors converge in the association with risk for violent reinjury and violence perpetration. Objectives: To investigate the association of exposure to neighborhood racialized economic segregation with reinjury and use of violence against others among survivors of violent penetrating injury. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study was performed using data obtained from hospital, police, and state vital records. The study was performed at Boston Medical Center, an urban, level I trauma center that is the largest safety-net hospital and busiest trauma center in New England. The cohort included all patients treated for a nonfatal violent penetrating injury from 2013 to 2018. Patients with no Boston metropolitan area home address were excluded. Individuals were followed up through 2021. Data were analyzed from February to August 2022. Exposure: American Community Survey data were used to measure neighborhood deprivation using the racialized economic Index of Concentration at the Extremes (ICE) for patient residential address upon hospital discharge. ICE was measured on a scale from -1 (most deprived) to 1 (most privileged). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were violent reinjury and police-reported perpetration of violence within 3 years of an index injury. Results: Of 1843 survivors of violence (median [IQR] age, 27 [22-37] years; 1557 men [84.5%]; 351 Hispanic [19.5%], 1271 non-Hispanic Black [70.5%], and 149 non-Hispanic White [8.3%] among 1804 patients with race and ethnicity data), the cohort was skewed toward residing in neighborhoods with higher racialized economic segregation (median [IQR] ICE = -0.15 [-0.22 to 0.07]) compared with the state overall (ICE = 0.27). There were police encounters for violence perpetration among 161 individuals (8.7%) and violent reinjuries among 214 individuals (11.6%) within 3 years after surviving a violent penetrating injury. For each 0.1-unit increase in neighborhood deprivation, there was a 13% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.25; P = .01) increase in risk of violence perpetration but no difference in risk for violent reinjury (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.11; P = .38). The greatest occurrence for each outcome was within the first year after index injury; for example, incidents of violence perpetration occurred among 48 of 614 patients (7.8%) at year 1 vs 10 of 542 patients (1.8%) at year 3 in tertile 3 of neighborhood deprivation. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that living in a more economically deprived and socially marginalized area was associated with increased risk of using violence against others. The finding suggests that interventions may need to include investments in neighborhoods with the highest levels of violence to help reduce downstream transmission of violence.

A database of US state policies to mitigate COVID-19 and its economic consequences.

BACKGROUND: Since COVID-19 first appeared in the United States (US) in January 2020, US states have pursued a wide range of policies to mitigate the spread of the virus and its economic ramifications. Without unified federal guidance, states have been the front lines of the policy response. MAIN TEXT: We created the COVID-19 US State Policy (CUSP) database ( https://statepolicies.com/ ) to document the dates and components of economic relief and public health measures issued at the state level in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Documented interventions included school and business closures, face mask mandates, directives on vaccine eligibility, eviction moratoria, and expanded unemployment insurance benefits. By providing continually updated information, CUSP was designed to inform rapid-response, policy-relevant research in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and has been widely used to investigate the impact of state policies on population health and health equity. This paper introduces the CUSP database and highlights how it is already informing the COVID-19 pandemic response in the US. CONCLUSION: CUSP is the most comprehensive publicly available policy database of health, social, and economic policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. CUSP documents widespread variation in state policy decisions and implementation dates across the US and serves as a freely available and valuable resource to policymakers and researchers.

Mapping disparities in homicide trends across Brazil: 2000-2014.

BACKGROUND: Homicides are a major problem in Brazil. Drugs and arms trafficking, and land conflicts are three of the many factors driving homicide rates in Brazil. Understanding long-term spatiotemporal trends and social structural factors associated with homicides in Brazil would be useful for designing policies aimed at reducing homicide rates. METHODS: We obtained data from 2000 to 2014 from the Brazil Ministry of Health (MOH) Mortality Information System and sociodemographic data from the Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). First, we quantified the rate of change in homicides at the municipality and state levels. Second, we used principal component regression and k-medoids clustering to examine differences in temporal trends across municipalities. Lastly, we used Bayesian hierarchical space-time models to describe spatio-temporal patterns and to assess the contribution of structural factors. RESULTS: There were significant variations in homicide rates across states and municipalities. We noted the largest decrease in homicide rates in the western and southeastern states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo, which coincided with an increase in homicide rates in the northeastern states of Ceará, Alagoas, Paraiba, Rio Grande Norte, Sergipe and Bahia during the fifteen-year period. The decrease in homicides in municipalities with populations of at least 250,000 coincided with an increase in municipalities with 25,000 people or less. Structural factors that predicted municipality-level homicide rates included crude domestic product, urbanization, border with neighboring countries and proportion of population aged fifteen to twenty-nine. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support both a dissemination hypothesis and an interiorization hypothesis. These findings should be considered when designing interventions to curb homicide rates.

Differences in Racial Disparities in Firearm Homicide across Cities: The Role of Racial Residential Segregation and Gaps in Structural Disadvantage.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Little research has characterized racial differences in firearm homicide at the city level. In this study, we explicitly model trends from 2000 to 2017 in the gap in homicide rates between the Black and White populations of 275 U.S. cities. METHODS: We used latent trajectory analysis and latent multi-trajectory analysis to identify distinct groups of cities with similar trends over time in: (a) Black and White firearm homicide rates; and (b) the ratio of the Black to White firearm homicide rates. We used a hierarchical, random effects model to examine the impact of racial segregation and racial gaps in structural disadvantage on the extent of the racial disparity in firearm homicide in each city. RESULTS: We found that racial residential segregation predicts differences between cities in the magnitude of racial disparities in firearm homicide rates. CONCLUSION: Reducing racial disparities in firearm homicide may require programs and policies that specifically address the adverse consequences of racial segregation.

Building from the HIV Response toward Universal Health Coverage.

Jonathan Jay and colleagues draw lessons from the the global HIV response that could help guide the universal health coverage movement.

Improving women's health through universal health coverage.

Jonathan Quick and colleagues discuss how women's health world-wide can be improved through universal health coverage.