Association Between New 340B Program Participation and Commercial Insurance Spending on Outpatient Biologic Oncology Drugs.

Importance: Previous studies have found that hospitals participating in the 340B Drug Pricing Program have higher Medicare Part B spending and expansion into affluent neighborhoods. Less is known about the association of 340B participation with spending by commercial insurance, where reimbursements are higher than Medicare. Objective: To use the Affordable Care Act expansion of eligibility for the 340B Drug Pricing Program to study the association between participation and spending on outpatient-administered oncological drugs for commercially insured patients. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included a balanced panel hospital cohort containing new and never 340B program participants between 2007 and 2019; more recent data were not included to avoid the effect of disruptions in care due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Descriptive analyses documented spending trends for patients receiving common outpatient-administered biologics used in cancer treatments (bevacizumab, filgrastim, pegfilgrastim, rituximab, and trastuzumab) at 340B (treated) and non-340B (control) hospitals. A difference-in-differences model assessed changes in episode drug spending. Analyses were conducted between December 2021 and June 2022. Exposure: New 340B program participation between 2010 and 2016. Main Outcome and Measures: Total drug episode spending, with control variables including total billed units, drug, calendar-year fixed effects, and hospital fixed effects. Results: Of 95 127 included episodes (56 917 [59.8%] episodes in female patients) across 478 hospitals, patients seen in 340B and non-340B hospitals were similar in sex and drug used, and 340B hospital patients were older than non-340B patients (median [IQR] age for all patients, 61 [51-71] years). New 340B participating hospitals were more likely to be small (<50 beds) and more likely to be in rural settings. In the difference-in-differences analysis, total episode drug spending increased by $4074.69 (95% CI, $1592.84-$6556.70; P = .001) in the year following start of 340B program participation relative to nonparticipants. Heterogeneous group time effects were seen, with earlier participants less likely to have increased episode spending. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, new 340B participation was associated with statistically significant higher oncological drug episode spending compared with nonparticipants after changes in 340B inclusion rules in 2010. These findings raise questions about unintended consequences of the 340B program on drug spending from the commercially insured population.

Provider barriers in uptake of biosimilars: case study on filgrastim.

In this article, we used administrative claims data from the OptumLabs Data Warehouse and American Hospital Association Annual Survey data to examine associations between hospital characteristics and uptake of biosimilar granulocyte colony-stimulating factor treatments. We found that 340B-participating hospitals and non-rural referral center (RRC) hospitals that reported owning rural health clinics were less likely to administer the lower-cost biosimilars, whereas the opposite was true for hospitals that are RRCs. To our knowledge, our study offers a first look at an underappreciated source of disparities in access to lower-cost medications such as biosimilars. Results from our study reveal opportunities for targeted policies to encourage adoption of lower-cost treatments, particularly among hospitals that serve rural communities where patients often have fewer choices in care site.

Association of opioid fills with centers for disease control and prevention opioid guidelines and payer coverage policies: physician, insurance and geographic factors.

Background The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued guidelines and certain healthcare payers have made pharmacy coverage changes (PCC) focusing on regulating prescription opioids. Aim We evaluated differences in the rate of first-time opioid fills at doses ≥ 50 morphine milligram equivalents (MME)/day and first-time opioid fills with benzodiazepine fill overlap following the CDC guidelines and following a PCC between provider types, geographic locations, and insurance types. Method We used OptumLabs® Data Warehouse claims data between 2014 and 2018. Subjects were opioid naïve non-cancer care patients, 18 years and older who had an identified chronic pain condition ICD diagnosis within 2 weeks prior to their first-time opioid fill. We used multiple treatment period segmented regression analysis with interaction terms to test the differences between primary care providers (PCPs) and specialist providers (SPs), urban and rural primary care service areas (PCSAs), and Medicare Advantage (MA) and commercially insured patients (CIPs) in their first-time opioid fill patterns. Results Prescribing first-time opioid fills at doses ≥ 50MME/day declined following the CDC guidelines and PCC, the decline was greater among SPs than PCPs and in rural PCSAs than urban PCSAs. Also, following the CDC guidelines, the decline was greater among MA patients however following the PCC the decline was greater among CIPs. There were no differences in rate of first-time opioid fill with benzodiazepine overlap between groups. Conclusion Responses to the CDC opioid guidelines and a PCC differed between PCPs and SPs, urban and rural PCSAs, and when prescribing to MA and CIPs. Understanding these differences is important to help inform future guidelines.

Site of care potentially limits cost savings from biosimilars.

OBJECTIVES: The first FDA-approved biosimilar was launched in 2015: filgrastim-sndz (Zarxio), a biosimilar for the reference drug filgrastim (Neupogen). Filgrastim is a granulocyte colony-stimulating factor used to prevent and treat neutropenia. In this study, we examined the association between site of care and drug cost across reference filgrastim, tbo-filgrastim (Granix; a version of filgrastim approved as a biosimilar in Europe and as a new drug in the United States), and biosimilar filgrastim administrations among the commercially insured. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective study using administrative claims data. METHODS: We used OptumLabs Data Warehouse to identify the site of care of each short-acting filgrastim administration among commercial enrollees between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2019. RESULTS: For each filgrastim product, model-adjusted median drug costs were higher in the outpatient hospital setting than for the same drug administered in the office setting. Comparing drug costs within the same setting, in the office setting, costs of biosimilar and tbo-filgrastim were $103.61 and $94.07 lower than reference filgrastim, respectively (P < .001 for each comparison). In the outpatient hospital setting, adjusted median costs for tbo-filgrastim were lower than those for reference filgrastim (-$132.90; P < .001), but adjusted median costs of the biosimilar were slightly higher ($20.50; P = .025). CONCLUSIONS: Although previous work has found lower costs for biosimilar filgrastim compared with reference filgrastim, here we found that site of care can change this calculus, reducing savings. After adjusting for patient characteristics and geography, we found that drug cost savings for biosimilar filgrastim were limited to the office setting, with no savings in the outpatient hospital setting.

Epidemiology of paediatric pain-related visits to emergency departments in the USA: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiology of paediatric pain-related visits to emergency departments (EDs) across the USA. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: A representative sample of US ED visits using data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS). PARTICIPANTS: Paediatric (age ≤18 years) ED visits in the 2017 NHAMCS data set. DATA ANALYSIS: Each visit was coded as pain-related or non-pain-related using the 'reason for visit' variable. Weighted proportions were calculated with 95% CIs. Logistic regression was used to compare odds of pain-related visits. OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of pain-related visits among paediatric ED visits. RESULTS: There were an estimated 35 million paediatric ED visits in the USA in 2017, 55.6% (CI 53.3% to 57.8%) were pain related, which equates to 19.7 million annual visits. The prevalence of pain-related visits reached more than 50% of visits at age 6-7 and plateaued at relatively high proportions. Children of races other than white or black had lower odds of having a pain-related visit (OR 0.48, CI 0.29 to 0.81) than white children, as did children who were black, though the difference was not statistically significant (OR 0.88, CI 0.73 to 1.06). Relative to children covered by private insurance, children with Medicaid or CHIP (Children's Health Insurance Program) coverage had lower odds of a pain-related visit (OR 0.75, CI 0.60 to 0.93). Injuries represented 46.5% (CI 42.0% to 51.0%) of pain-related visits. Pain scores were reported in less than 50% of pain-related visits. CONCLUSION: Pain is the reason for visit in 55.6% of paediatric ED visits across the USA. The prevalence of pain-related visits peak before adolescence and it continues relatively high until the age 18. Injury, racial disparities in pain and poor pain score reporting should remain major topics of study in the paediatric population.

Association of outpatient ACE inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers and outcomes of acute respiratory illness: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Evaluate associations between ACE inhibitors (ACEis) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) and clinical outcomes in acute viral respiratory illness (AVRI). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis of claims data. SETTING: The USA; 2018-2019 influenza season. PARTICIPANTS: Main cohort: people with hypertension (HTN) taking an ACEi, ARB or other HTN medications, and experiencing AVRI. Falsification cohort: parallel cohort receiving elective knee or hip replacement. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Main cohort: hospital admission, intensive care unit, acute respiratory distress (ARD), ARD syndrome and all-cause mortality. Falsification cohort: complications after surgery and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: The main cohort included 236 843 episodes of AVRI contributed by 202 629 unique individuals. Most episodes were in women (58.9%), 81.4% in people with Medicare Advantage and 40.3% in people aged 75+ years. Odds of mortality were lower in the ACEi (0.78 (0.74 to 0.83)) and ARB (0.64 (0.61 to 0.68)) cohorts compared with other HTN medications. On all other outcomes, people taking ARBs (but not ACEis) had a >10% reduction in odds of inpatient stays compared with other HTN medications.In the falsification analysis (N=103 353), both ACEis (0.89 (0.80 to 0.98)) and ARBs (0.82 (0.74 to 0.91)) were associated with decreased odds of complications compared with other HTN medications; ARBs (0.64 (0.47 to 0.87)) but not ACEis (0.79 (0.60 to 1.05)) were associated with lower odds of death compared with other HTN medications. CONCLUSIONS: Outpatient use of ARBs was associated with better outcomes with AVRI compared with other medications for HTN. ACEis were associated with reduced risk of death, but with minimal or no reduction in risk of other complications. A falsification analysis conducted to provide context on the possible causal implications of these findings did not provide a clear answer. Further analysis using observational data will benefit from additional approaches to assess causal relationships between these drugs and outcomes in AVRI.

Physician variation in the de-adoption of ineffective statin and fibrate therapy.

OBJECTIVE: To describe physicians' variation in de-adopting concurrent statin and fibrate therapy for type 2 diabetic patients following a reversal in clinical evidence. DATA SOURCES: We analyzed 2007-2015 claims data from OptumLabs® Data Warehouse, a longitudinal, real-world data asset with de-identified administrative claims and electronic health record data. STUDY DESIGN: We modeled fibrate use among Medicare Advantage and commercially insured type 2 diabetic statin users before and after the publication of the ACCORD lipid trial, which found statins and fibrates were no more effective than statins alone in reducing cardiovascular events among type 2 diabetic patients. We modeled fibrate use trends with physician random effects and physician characteristics such as age and specialty. DATA EXTRACTION: We identified patient-year-quarters with one year of continuous insurance enrollment, type 2 diabetes diagnoses, and fibrate use. We designated the physician most responsible for patients' diabetes care based on evaluation and management visits and prescriptions of glucose-lowering drugs. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Fibrate use increased by 0.12 percentage points per quarter among commercial patients (95% CI, 0.10 to 0.14) and 0.17 percentage points per quarter among Medicare Advantage patients (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.20) before the trial and then decreased by 0.16 percentage points per quarter among commercial patients (95% CI, -0.18 to -0.15) and 0.05 percentage points per quarter among Medicare Advantage patients (95% CI, -0.06 to -0.03) after the trial. However, 45% of physicians treating commercial patients and 48% of physicians treating Medicare Advantage patients had positive trends in prescribing following the trial. Physicians' characteristics did not explain their variation (pseudo R2  = 0.000). CONCLUSION: On average, physicians decreased fibrate prescribing following the ACCORD lipid trial. However, many physicians increased prescribing following the trial. Observable physician characteristics did not explain variations in prescribing. Future research should examine whether physicians vary similarly in other de-adoption settings.

Patient and provider-level factors associated with changes in utilization of treatments in response to evidence on ineffectiveness or harm.

High-quality health care not only includes timely access to effective new therapies but timely abandonment of therapies when they are found to be ineffective or unsafe. Little is known about changes in use of medications after they are shown to be ineffective or unsafe. In this study, we examine changes in use of two medications: fenofibrate, which was found to be ineffective when used with statins among patients with Type 2 diabetes (ACCORD lipid trial); and dronedarone, which was found to be unsafe in patients with permanent atrial fibrillation (PALLAS trial). We examine the patient and provider characteristics associated with a decline in use of these medications. Using Medicare fee-for-service claims from 2008 to 2013, we identified two cohorts: patients with Type 2 diabetes using statins (7 million patient-quarters), and patients with permanent atrial fibrillation (83 thousand patient-quarters). We used interrupted time-series regression models to identify the patient- and provider-level characteristics associated with changes in medication use after new evidence emerged for each case. After new evidence of ineffectiveness emerged, fenofibrate use declined by 0.01 percentage points per quarter (95% CI - 0.02 to - 0.01) from a baseline of 6.9 percent of all diabetes patients receiving fenofibrate; dronedarone use declined by 0.13 percentage points per quarter (95% CI - 0.15 to - 0.10) from a baseline of 3.8 percent of permanent atrial fibrillation patients receiving dronedarone. For dronedarone, use declined more quickly among patients dually-enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid compared to Medicare-only patients (P < 0.001), among patients seen by male providers compared to female providers (P = 0.01), and among patients seen by cardiologists compared to primary care providers (P < 0.001).

Place, poverty and prescriptions: a cross-sectional study using Area Deprivation Index to assess opioid use and drug-poisoning mortality in the USA from 2012 to 2017.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the relationships between county-level area deprivation and patterns of both opioid prescriptions and drug-poisoning mortality. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: For this retrospective cross-sectional study, we used the IQVIA Xponent data to capture opioid prescriptions and Centres for Disease Control and Prevention National Vital Statistics System to assess drug-poisoning mortality. The Area Deprivation Index (ADI) is a composite measure of social determinants of health comprised of 17 US census indicators, spanning four socioeconomic domains. For all US counties with available opioid prescription (2712 counties) and drug-poisoning mortality (3133 counties) data between 2012 and 2017, we used negative binomial regression to examine the association between quintiles of county-level ADI and the rates of opioid prescriptions and drug-poisoning mortality adjusted for year, age, race and sex. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: County-level opioid prescription fills and drug-poisoning mortality. RESULTS: Between 2012 and 2017, overall rates of opioid prescriptions decreased from 96.6 to 72.2 per 100 people, while the rates of drug-poisoning mortality increased from 14.3 to 22.8 per 100 000 people. Opioid prescription and drug-poisoning mortality rates were consistently higher with greater levels of deprivation. The risk of filling an opioid prescription was 72% higher, and the risk of drug-poisoning mortality was 36% higher, for most deprived compared with the least deprived counties (both p<0.001). DISCUSSION: Counties with greater area-level deprivation have higher rates of filled opioid prescriptions and drug-poisoning mortality. Although opioid prescription rates declined across all ADI quintiles, the rates of drug-poisoning mortality continued to rise proportionately in each ADI quintile. This underscores the need for individualised and targeted interventions that consider the deprivation of communities where people live.

Assessment of Potentially Inappropriate Prescribing of Opioid Analgesics Requiring Prior Opioid Tolerance.

Importance: Opioid-tolerant only (OTO) medications, such as transmucosal immediate-release fentanyl products and certain extended-release opioid analgesics, require prior opioid tolerance for safe use, as patients without tolerance may be at increased risk of overdose. Studies using insurance claims have found that many patients initiating these medications do not appear to be opioid tolerant. Objectives: To measure prevalence of opioid tolerance in patients initiating OTO medications and to determine whether linked electronic health record (EHR) data contribute evidence of opioid tolerance not found in insurance claims data. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used a national database of deidentified longitudinal health information, including medical and pharmacy claims, insurance enrollment, and EHR data, from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2016. Data included 131 756 US residents with at least 183 days of continuous enrollment in commercial or Medicare Advantage insurance (including medical and pharmacy benefits) who had received an OTO medication and who had no inpatient stays in the 30 days prior to starting an OTO medication; of these, 20 044 individuals had linked EHR data within the prior 183 days. Data were analyzed from July 1, 2017, to August 31, 2018. Exposures: Initiating an OTO medication. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prior opioid tolerance demonstrated through pharmacy fills or EHR data on prescriptions written. Results: Among 153 385 OTO use episodes identified, 89 029 (58.0%) occurred among women, 62 900 (41.0%) occurred among patients with Medicare Advantage insurance, 39 394 (25.7%) occurred in the Midwest, 17 366 (11.3%) occurred in the Northeast, 73 316 (47.8%) occurred in the South, and 23 309 (15.2%) occurred in the West. Less than half of use episodes (73 117 episodes [47.7%]) involved patients with evidence in claims data of opioid tolerance prior to initiating therapy with an OTO medication, including 31 392 of 101 676 episodes (30.9%) involving transdermal fentanyl, 1561 of 2440 episodes (64.0%) involving transmucosal fentanyl, 36 596 of 43 559 episodes (84.0%) involving extended-release oxycodone, and 3568 of 5710 episodes (62.5%) involving extended-release hydromorphone. Among 20 044 OTO use episodes with linked EHR and claims data, less than 1% of OTO episodes identified in claims had evidence of opioid tolerance in structured EHR data that was not present in claims data (108 episodes [0.5%]). After limiting the sample to OTO episodes identified in claims with a matching OTO prescription within 14 days in the structured EHR data, only 40 of 939 episodes (4.0%) occurred among patients with evidence of tolerance that was not present in claims data. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that most patients initiating OTO medications did not have evidence of prior opioid tolerance, suggesting they were at increased risk of opioid-related harms, including fatal overdose. Data from EHRs did not contribute substantial additional evidence of opioid tolerance beyond the data found in prescription claims. Future research is needed to understand the clinical rationale behind these observed prescribing patterns and to quantify the risk of harm to patients associated with potentially inappropriate prescribing.

Biosimilar Filgrastim Uptake And Costs Among Commercially Insured, Medicare Advantage.

In 2015 the Food and Drug Administration approved filgrastim-sndz (Zarxio), the first US biosimilar. Following rapid uptake, by March 2018 filgrastim-sndz accounted for 47 percent of filgrastim administrations among commercially insured and 42 percent among Medicare Advantage beneficiaries. The initial cost difference between the originator and biosimilar was 31 percent in the former population but negligible in the latter.

Trends in opioid use in commercially insured and Medicare Advantage populations in 2007-16: retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe trends in the rate and daily dose of opioids used among commercial and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries from 2007 to 2016. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of administrative claims data. SETTING: National database of medical and pharmacy claims for commercially insured and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries in the United States. PARTICIPANTS: 48 million individuals with any period of insurance coverage between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2016, including commercial beneficiaries, Medicare Advantage beneficiaries aged 65 years and over, and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries under age 65 years (eligible owing to permanent disability). MAIN ENDPOINTS: Proportion of beneficiaries with any opioid prescription per quarter, average daily dose in milligram morphine equivalents (MME), and proportion of opioid use episodes that represented long term use. RESULTS: Across all years of the study, annual opioid use prevalence was 14% for commercial beneficiaries, 26% for aged Medicare beneficiaries, and 52% for disabled Medicare beneficiaries. In the commercial beneficiary group, quarterly prevalence of opioid use changed little, starting and ending the study period at 6%; the average daily dose of 17 MME remained unchanged since 2011. For aged Medicare beneficiaries, quarterly use prevalence was also relatively stable, ranging from 11% at the beginning of the study period to 14% at the end. Disabled Medicare beneficiaries had the highest rates of opioid use, the highest rate of long term use, and the largest average daily doses. In this group, both quarterly use rates (39%) and average daily dose (56 MME) were higher at the end of 2016 than the low points observed in 2007 for each endpoint (26% prevalence and 53 MME). CONCLUSIONS: Opioid use rates were high during the study period of 2007-16, with the highest rates in disabled Medicare beneficiaries versus aged Medicare beneficiaries and commercial beneficiaries. Opioid use and average daily dose have not substantially declined from their peaks, despite increased attention to opioid abuse and awareness of their risks.

Health Care Service Use Among Elderly Seasonal Migrators.

Elderly seasonal migrators share time between homes in different states, presenting challenges for care coordination and patient attribution methods. Medicare has prioritized alternative payment models, putting health care providers at risk for quality and value of services delivered to their attributed patients, regardless of the location of care. Little research is available to guide providers and payers on the service use of seasonal migrators. The authors use claims data on fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare beneficiaries' locations throughout the year to (1) identify seasonal migrators and (2) describe the care they receive in each seasonal home, focusing on primary care and emergency department (ED) visits and the relationships between the two. In all, 5.5% of the Medicare aged FFS population were identified as seasonal migrators, with 4.1% following the traditional snowbird pattern of migration, spending warm months in the north and cold months in the south. Migrators had higher rates of ED visits and primary care treatable (PCT) ED visits than the nonmigratory groups, controlling for location, age, race, sex, Medicaid status, season, and comorbidities. They also had more visits with specialist physicians, more days with outpatient services, and more days seeing a physician in any setting. Having local primary care strongly reduced rates of both PCT ED visits and total ED visits for all migration categories, with the greatest reduction seen in PCT ED visits by migrators (local primary care was associated with a 58% reduction in PCT ED visits by snowbirds and a 65% reduction in PCT ED visits by other migrators).

Opioid Prescribing for Opioid-Naive Patients in Emergency Departments and Other Settings: Characteristics of Prescriptions and Association With Long-Term Use.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: We explore the emergency department (ED) contribution to prescription opioid use for opioid-naive patients by comparing the guideline concordance of ED prescriptions with those attributed to other settings and the risk of patients' continuing long-term opioid use. METHODS: We used analysis of administrative claims data (OptumLabs Data Warehouse 2009 to 2015) of opioid-naive privately insured and Medicare Advantage (aged and disabled) beneficiaries to compare characteristics of opioid prescriptions attributed to the ED with those attributed to other settings. Concordance with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines and rate of progression to long-term opioid use are reported. RESULTS: We identified 5.2 million opioid prescription fills that met inclusion criteria. Opioid prescriptions from the ED were more likely to adhere to CDC guidelines for dose, days' supply, and formulation than those attributed to non-ED settings. Disabled Medicare beneficiaries were the most likely to progress to long-term use, with 13.4% of their fills resulting in long-term use compared with 6.2% of aged Medicare and 1.8% of commercial beneficiaries' fills. Compared with patients in non-ED settings, commercial beneficiaries receiving opioid prescriptions in the ED were 46% less likely, aged Medicare patients 56% less likely, and disabled Medicare patients 58% less likely to progress to long-term opioid use. CONCLUSION: Compared with non-ED settings, opioid prescriptions provided to opioid-naive patients in the ED were more likely to align with CDC recommendations. They were shorter, written for lower daily doses, and less likely to be for long-acting formulations. Prescriptions from the ED are associated with a lower risk of progression to long-term use.

Validation of an algorithm to determine the primary care treatability of emergency department visits.

OBJECTIVES: We propose a new claims-computable measure of the primary care treatability of emergency department (ED) visits and validate it using a nationally representative sample of Medicare data. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: This is a validation study using 2011-2012 Medicare claims data for a nationally representative 5% sample of fee-for-service beneficiaries to compare the new measure's performance to the Ballard variant of the Billings algorithm in predicting hospitalisation and death following an ED visit. OUTCOMES: Hospitalisation within 1 day or 1 week of an ED visit; death within 1 week or 1 month of an ED visit. RESULTS: The Minnesota algorithm is a strong predictor of hospitalisations and deaths, with performance similar to or better than the most commonly used existing algorithm to assess the severity of ED visits. The Billings/Ballard algorithm is a better predictor of death within 1 week of an ED visit; this finding is entirely driven by a small number of ED visits where patients appear to have been dead on arrival. CONCLUSIONS: The procedure-based approach of the Minnesota algorithm allows researchers to use the clinical judgement of the ED physician, who saw the patient to determine the likely severity of each visit. The Minnesota algorithm may thus provide a useful tool for investigating ED use in Medicare beneficiaries.

Emergency department utilization as a measure of physician performance.

Visits to the emergency department (ED) are costly, and because some of them are potentially avoidable, some types of ED visits also may be indicative of poor care management, inadequate access to care, or poor choices on the part of beneficiaries. Billings and colleagues developed an algorithm to analyze ED visits and assign probabilities that each visit falls into several categories of appropriateness. The algorithm has been used previously to assess the appropriateness of ED visits at the community or facility level. In this analysis, the authors explain how the Billings algorithm works and how it can be applied to individual physician practices. The authors then present illustrative data from 2 years of Medicare claims data from 5 states. About one third of ED visits are deemed appropriate, and about half could have been treated in a primary care outpatient setting. Another 15% were deemed preventable or avoidable.

The 3-year disease management effect: understanding the positive return on investment.

OBJECTIVE: Conventional wisdom suggests that health promotion programs yield a positive return on investment (ROI) in year 3. In the case of the University of Minnesota's program, a positive ROI was achieved in the third year, but it was due entirely to the effectiveness of the disease management (DM) program. The objective of this study is to investigate why. METHODS: Differences-in-differences regression equations were estimated to determine the effect of DM participation on spending (overall and service specific), hospitalizations, and avoidable hospitalizations. RESULTS: Disease management participation reduced expenditures overall, and especially in the third year for employees, and reduced hospitalizations and avoidable hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: The positive ROI at Minnesota was due to increased effectiveness of DM in the third year (mostly due to fewer hospitalizations) but also to the simple durability of the average DM effect.

The effectiveness of a health promotion program after 3 years: evidence from the University of Minnesota.

BACKGROUND: Health promotion programs for the workplace are often sold to employers with the promise that they will pay for themselves with lowered health care expenditures and reduced absenteeism. In a recent review of the literature, it was noted that analysts often caution not to expect a positive return on investment until the third year of operation. OBJECTIVE: This study investigates whether a positive return on investment was generated in the third year for the health promotion program used by the University of Minnesota. It further investigates what it is about the third year that would explain such a phenomenon. MEASURES: The study uses health care expenditure data and absenteeism data from 2004 to 2008 to investigate the effect of the University's lifestyle and disease management programs. It also investigates the effectiveness of participation in Minnesota's 10,000 Steps walking program and Miavita self-help programs. RESEARCH DESIGN: A differences-in-differences equations approach is used to address potential selection bias. Possible regression to the mean is dealt with by using only those who were eligible to participate as control observations. Propensity score weighting was used to balance the sample on observable characteristics and reduce bias due to omitted variables. RESULTS: The study finds that a 1.76 return on investment occurs in the third year of operation that is generated solely by the effect of disease management program participation in reducing health care expenditures. However, neither of the explanations for a third-year effect we tested seemed to be able to explain this phenomenon.