Distributions and trends of the global burden of COPD attributable to risk factors by SDI, age, and sex from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis of GBD 2019 data.

BACKGROUND: Global distributions and trends of the risk-attributable burdens of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have rarely been systematically explored. To guide the formulation of targeted and accurate strategies for the management of COPD, we analyzed COPD burdens attributable to known risk factors. METHODS: Using detailed COPD data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019, we analyzed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and deaths attributable to each risk factor from 1990 to 2019. Additionally, we calculated estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) during the study period. The population attributable fraction (PAF) and summary exposure value (SEV) of each risk factor are also presented. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY and death rates of COPD attributable to smoking and household air pollution, occupational particles, secondhand smoke, and low temperature presented consistently declining trends in almost all socio-demographic index (SDI) regions. However, the decline in YLD was not as dramatic as that of the death rate. In contrast, the COPD burden attributable to ambient particulate matter, ozone, and high temperature exposure showed undesirable increasing trends in the low- and low-middle-SDI regions. In addition, the age-standardized DALY and death rates attributable to each risk factor except household air pollution and low temperature were the highest in the low-middle-SDI region. In 2019, the COPD burden attributable to smoking ambient particulate matter, ozone, occupational particles, low and high temperature was obviously greater in males than in females. Meanwhile, the most important risk factors for female varied across regions (low- and low-middle-SDI regions: household air pollution; middle-SDI region: ambient particles; high-middle- and high-SDI region: smoking). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing trends of COPD burden attributable to ambient particulate matter, ozone, and high temperature exposure in the low-middle- and low-SDI regions call for an urgent need to implement specific and effective measures. Moreover, considering the gender differences in COPD burdens attributable to some risk factors such as ambient particulate matter and ozone with similar SEV, further research on biological differences between sexes in COPD and relevant policy-making of disease prevention are required.

Global death burden and attributable risk factors of peripheral artery disease by age, sex, SDI regions, and countries from 1990 to 2030: Results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a prevalent cardiovascular disease. Understanding current and future disease burden of PAD and its attributable risk factors is critical for developing prevention measures targeting PAD and associated complications. METHODS: We analyzed the death burden of PAD and the trends of six risk factors from 1990 to 2019 using the updated 2019 Global Burden of Disease study database, and projected the next decade death burden using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. RESULTS: The global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of PAD has a modest downward trend from 1990 to 2019. Regionally, ASMRs in higher-sociodemographic index (SDI) areas remained more remarkable than in lower-SDI areas by 2019, while the rate of increase in death burden in the lower-SDI regions increased rapidly over time. ASMR in males was greater than in females. In the population aged older than 40 years, the sex difference in PAD-associated mortality decreased with age. High fasting plasma glucose (FPG) became the primary risk factor for PAD-related death. The contributions of risk factors to PAD-related death varied by age group. Kidney dysfunction was the primary contributor to PAD-related death in people aged 40-59 years, particularly in women. CONCLUSIONS: The global death burden of PAD has not substantially decreased over the three decades. There are large variations in the trend of PAD mortality and its attributable risk factors by SDI regions, sex, and age group. Targeted and effective strategies are needed for the management of PAD-related mortality in specific subgroups.

Projection of global burden and risk factors for aortic aneurysm - timely warning for greater emphasis on managing blood pressure.

RATIONALE: Aortic aneurysm (AA) is a serious condition that largely increases the risk of aortic dissection and sudden death. Exploring the global burden of disease and changes in risk factors for AA is essential for public health policy development. OBJECTIVE: To project the death burden from AA and its attributable risk factors in the following decade based on the epidemiological data over the past 30 years. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed the death burden of AA and trends of four risk factors from 1990-2019 using the updated 2019 Global Burden of Disease study database by Joinpoint regression analysis. Furthermore, we project the AA-related death burden for the next decade using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. This study discovered that the global burden of death attributable to AA began to increase after decreasing for two decades. This upward trend will continue in the subsequent decade (average annual percent change: 0.318%, 95% CI: 0.288 to 0.348). Meanwhile, the disease burdens in all economic regions except high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) regions will continuously increase in the next decade, with the fastest acceleration in the low-middle SDI region (average annual percent change: 1.183%, 95% CI: 1.166 to 1.200). Notably, high systolic blood pressure will surpass the contribution of smoking to become the most important risk factor for mortality due to AA. CONCLUSION: This study discovered a rebounding trend in the aortic aneurysm-related death burden globally. High systolic blood pressure will be the top risk factor attributed to death from AA. Therefore, it should be considered as the first-degree risk factor in the guidance of AA management and criteria for population-based screening programs.Key messagesThe death burden of aortic aneurysms is beginning to rebound globally, and the trend will continue for the next decade.High systolic blood pressure will replace smoking as the most important risk factor associated with aortic aneurysm death.

Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 suggests that metabolic risk factors are the leading drivers of the burden of ischemic heart disease.

Metabolic dysfunction is becoming a predominant risk for the development of many comorbidities. Ischemic heart disease (IHD) still imposes the highest disease burden among all cardiovascular diseases worldwide. However, the contributions of metabolic risk factors to IHD over time have not been fully characterized. Here, we analyzed the global disease burden of IHD and 15 associated general risk factors from 1990 to 2019 by applying the methodology framework of the Global Burden of Disease Study. We found that the global death cases due to IHD increased steadily during that time frame, while the mortality rate gradually declined. Notably, metabolic risk factors have become the leading driver of IHD, which also largely contributed to the majority of IHD-related deaths shifting from developed countries to developing countries. These findings suggest an urgent need to implement effective measures to control metabolic risk factors to prevent further increases in IHD-related deaths.

Epidemiological Features of NAFLD From 1999 to 2018 in China.

With dramatic changes in lifestyles over the last 20 years, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become the most prevalent liver disorder in China but has not received sufficient attention. NAFLD-related advanced liver disease and its mortality along with its overall disease burden are expected to increase substantially. There is thus an imperative need to clarify the epidemiological features of NAFLD to guide a holistic approach to management. We summarize eight epidemiological features of NAFLD in China over the past two decades using systematic review and meta-analysis methodology. Our data reveal a rapid growth in the NAFLD population, especially among younger individuals. Importantly, there is a strong ethnic difference in body mass index (BMI) and genetic risk of NAFLD compared with the US population. The etiology of advanced liver disease and its complications (e.g., hepatocellular carcinoma) has been altered because of a Westernized lifestyle and the implementation of effective vaccination strategies against viral hepatitis. Regional epidemiological patterns of NAFLD indicate that economics, environment, and lifestyle are critical factors in disease progression. The analysis also indicates that a large number of patients remain undiagnosed and untreated because of the inadequacy of diagnostic tools and the absence of effective pharmacologic therapies. Given the burden of NAFLD, future policy and research efforts need to address knowledge gaps to mitigate the risk burden.

Unexpected Rapid Increase in the Burden of NAFLD in China From 2008 to 2018: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

With rapid lifestyle transitions, the increasing burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in China has emerged as a major public health issue. To obtain a comprehensive overview of the status of NAFLD over the past decade, we evaluated the epidemiology, risk factors, complications, and management of NAFLD in China through a systematic review and meta-analysis. Five English literature databases and three Chinese databases were searched for relevant topics from 2008 to 2018. A total of 392 studies with a population of 2,054,554 were included. National prevalence of NAFLD was 29.2%, with a heavier disease burden among the middle-aged, males, those in northwest China and Taiwan, regions with a gross domestic product per capita greater than 100,000 yuan, and Uygur and Hui ethnic groups. Currently, original studies on natural history and complications of NAFLD in China are scarce. Several studies revealed that NAFLD is positively correlated with the incidence of extrahepatic tumors, diabetes, cardiovascular disease and metabolic syndrome. The Chinese population may have a higher hereditary risk of NAFLD due to more frequent nonsynonymous mutations in genes regulating lipid metabolism. Ultrasonography is the primary imaging tool in the detection of NAFLD in China. Serum tests and risk stratification algorithms for staging NAFLD remain under investigation. Specific pharmaceutical treatments for NAFLD are still undergoing clinical trials. It is noteworthy that the Chinese are underrepresented compared with their proportion of the NAFLD population in such trials. Conclusion: China experienced an unexpected rapid increase in the burden of NAFLD over a short period. Rising awareness and urgent actions need to be taken in order to control the NAFLD pandemic in China.