What on-line searches tell us about public interest and potential impact on behaviour in response to minimum unit pricing of alcohol in Scotland.

AIMS: To investigate whether the introduction of minimum unit pricing (MUP) in Scotland on 1 May 2018 was reflected in changes in the likelihood of alcohol-related queries submitted to an internet search engine, and in particular whether there was any evidence of increased interest in purchasing of alcohol from outside Scotland. DESIGN: Observational study in which individual queries to the internet Bing search engine for 2018 in Scotland and England were captured and analysed. Fluctuations over time in the likelihood of specific topic searches were examined. The patterns seen in Scotland were contrasted with those in England. SETTING: Scotland and England. PARTICIPANTS: People who used the Bing search engine during 2018. MEASUREMENTS: Numbers of daily queries submitted to Bing in 2018 on eight alcohol-related topics expressed as a proportion of queries on that day on any topic. These daily likelihoods were smoothed using a 14-day moving average for Scotland and England separately. FINDINGS: There were substantial peaks in queries about MUP itself, cheap sources of alcohol and online alcohol outlets at the time of introduction of MUP in May 2018 in Scotland, but not England. These were relatively short-lived. Queries related to intoxication and alcohol problems did not show a MUP peak, but were appreciably higher in Scotland than in England throughout 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of internet search engine queries appears to show that a fraction of people in Scotland may have considered circumventing minimum unit pricing in 2018 by looking for on-line alcohol retailers. The overall higher levels of queries related to alcohol problems in Scotland compared with England mirrors the corresponding differences in alcohol consumption and harms between the countries.

Accelerated partner therapy (APT) partner notification for people with Chlamydia trachomatis: protocol for the Limiting Undetected Sexually Transmitted infections to RedUce Morbidity (LUSTRUM) APT cross-over cluster randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Partner notification (PN) is a process aiming to identify, test and treat the sex partners of people (index patients) with sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Accelerated partner therapy (APT) is a PN method whereby healthcare professionals assess sex partners, by telephone consultation, before giving the index patient antibiotics and STI self-sampling kits to deliver to their sex partner(s). The Limiting Undetected Sexually Transmitted infections to RedUce Morbidity programme aims to determine the effectiveness of APT in heterosexual women and men with chlamydia and determine whether APT could affect Chlamydia trachomatis transmission at population level. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This protocol describes a cross-over cluster randomised controlled trial of APT, offered as an additional PN method, compared with standard PN. The trial is accompanied by an economic evaluation, transmission dynamic modelling and a qualitative process evaluation involving patients, partners and healthcare professionals. Clusters are 17 sexual health clinics in areas of England and Scotland with contrasting patient demographics. We will recruit 5440 heterosexual women and men with chlamydia, aged ≥16 years.The primary outcome is the proportion of index patients testing positive for C. trachomatis 12-16 weeks after the PN consultation. Secondary outcomes include: proportion of sex partners treated; cost effectiveness; model-predicted chlamydia prevalence; experiences of APT.The primary outcome analysis will be by intention-to-treat, fitting random effects logistic regression models that account for clustering of index patients within clinics and trial periods. The transmission dynamic model will be used to predict change in chlamydia prevalence following APT. The economic evaluation will use mathematical modelling outputs, taking a health service perspective. Qualitative data will be analysed using interpretative phenomenological analysis and framework analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This protocol received ethical approval from London-Chelsea Research Ethics Committee (18/LO/0773). Findings will be published with open access licences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN15996256.

Epidemiology of genital warts in the British population: implications for HPV vaccination programmes.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the prevalence of, and describe risk factors for, genital warts (GWs) in the British population, following the introduction of the bivalent (human papillomavirus (HPV)-16/18) vaccination programme in girls, and prior to the switch to quadrivalent (HPV-6/11/16/18) vaccine (offering direct protection against GWs) and compare this with GW diagnoses in the prevaccination era. METHODS: Natsal-3, a probability sample survey in Britain, conducted in 2010-2012, interviewed 9902 men and women aged 16-44. Natsal-2, conducted in 1999-2001, surveyed 11 161 men and women aged 16-44. Both surveys collected data on sexual behaviour and sexually transmitted infection diagnoses using computer-assisted interview methods. RESULTS: In Natsal-3, 3.8% and 4.6% of sexually experienced men and women reported ever having a diagnosis of GWs, with 1.3% of men and 1.7% of woman reporting a GWs diagnosis in the past 5 years. GWs were strongly associated with increasing partner numbers and condomless sex. Diagnoses were more frequent in men who have sex with men (MSM) (11.6% ever, 3.3% past 5 years) and in women reporting sex with women (10.8% ever, 3.6% past 5 years). In the age group who were eligible for vaccination at the time of Natsal-3 (16-20 years), a similar proportion of same-aged women reported a history of GWs in Natsal-2 (1.9%, 1.1-3.4) and Natsal-3 (2.6%, 1.5-4.4). CONCLUSIONS: These data provide essential parameters for mathematical models that inform cost-effectiveness analyses of HPV vaccination programmes. There was no evidence of population protection against GWs conferred by the bivalent vaccine. Even with vaccination of adolescent boys, vaccination should be offered to MSM attending sexual health clinics.

The health and well-being of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Britain: Evidence from the third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3).

BACKGROUND: To date, research on men who have sex with men (MSM) has largely focused on their sexual health needs and on men recruited from gay-orientated venues. National probability survey data provide a rare opportunity to examine the broader sociodemographic, behavioural, and health profiles of MSM, defined as men who reported ≥1 male sexual partner(s) in the past 5 years, and thus regardless of their sexual identity, in comparison to men reporting sex exclusively with women (MSEW) during this time, and also the extent that health inequalities cluster. METHODS: Britain's third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3), a probability sample survey, interviewed 15,162 people aged 16-74 years (6,293 men) during 2010-2012 using computer-assisted personal-interviewing with a computer-assisted self-interview. We used multivariable regression to compare MSM relative to MSEW in their reporting of variables, individually and collectively, corresponding to three domains: physical, mental, and sexual health. RESULTS: Among all men, 2.6 % (n = 190) were defined as MSM, of whom 52.5 % (95 % CI: 43.6 %-61.2 %) identified as gay. MSM were as likely as MSEW (n = 5,069) to perceive their health was 'bad'/'very bad', despite MSM being more likely to report a long-standing illness/disability/infirmity (adjusted odds ratio, AOR: 1.46, 95 % CI:1.02-2.09), treatment for depression/past year (2.75, 1.69-4.47), and substance use (e.g., recreational drug use/past year: 3.46, 2.22-5.40). MSM were more likely to report harmful sexual health behaviours, e.g., condomless sex with ≥2 partners/past year (3.52, 2.13-5.83), and poor sexual health outcomes, including STI diagnosis/es (5.67, 2.67-12.04), poorer sexual function (2.28, 1.57-3.33), both past year, and ever-experience of attempted non-volitional sex (6.51, 4.22-10.06). MSM were also more likely than MSEW to report poor health behaviours and outcomes both within and across the three health domains considered. Of all MSM, 8.4 % had experienced poor health outcomes in all three domains - physical, mental, and sexual health - in contrast to 1.5 % of all MSEW. CONCLUSIONS: MSM are disproportionately affected by a broad range of harmful health behaviours and poor health outcomes. Although often observed for a minority of MSM, many health inequalities were seen in combination such that policies and practices aimed at improving the health and well-being of MSM require a holistic approach, regardless of clinical specialty.

Role of healthcare workers in early epidemic spread of Ebola: policy implications of prophylactic compared to reactive vaccination policy in outbreak prevention and control.

Ebola causes severe illness in humans and has epidemic potential. How to deploy vaccines most effectively is a central policy question since different strategies have implications for ideal vaccine profile. More than one vaccine may be needed. A vaccine optimised for prophylactic vaccination in high-risk areas but when the virus is not actively circulating should be safe, well tolerated, and provide long-lasting protection; a two- or three-dose strategy would be realistic. Conversely, a reactive vaccine deployed in an outbreak context for ring-vaccination strategies should have rapid onset of protection with one dose, but longevity of protection is less important. In initial cases, before an outbreak is recognised, healthcare workers (HCWs) are at particular risk of acquiring and transmitting infection, thus potentially augmenting early epidemics. We hypothesise that many early outbreak cases could be averted, or epidemics aborted, by prophylactic vaccination of HCWs. This paper explores the potential impact of prophylactic versus reactive vaccination strategies of HCWs in preventing early epidemic transmissions. To do this, we use the limited data available from Ebola epidemics (current and historic) to reconstruct transmission trees and illustrate the theoretical impact of these vaccination strategies. Our data suggest a substantial potential benefit of prophylactic versus reactive vaccination of HCWs in preventing early transmissions. We estimate that prophylactic vaccination with a coverage >99% and theoretical 100% efficacy could avert nearly two-thirds of cases studied; 75% coverage would still confer clear benefit (40% cases averted), but reactive vaccination would be of less value in the early epidemic. A prophylactic vaccination campaign for front-line HCWs is not a trivial undertaking; whether to prioritise long-lasting vaccines and provide prophylaxis to HCWs is a live policy question. Prophylactic vaccination is likely to have a greater impact on the mitigation of future epidemics than reactive strategies and, in some cases, might prevent them. However, in a confirmed outbreak, reactive vaccination would be an essential humanitarian priority. The value of HCW Ebola vaccination is often only seen in terms of personal protection of the HCW workforce. A prophylactic vaccination strategy is likely to bring substantial additional benefit by preventing early transmission and might abort some epidemics. This has implications both for policy and for the optimum product profile for vaccines currently in development.

Potential impact on HIV incidence of higher HIV testing rates and earlier antiretroviral therapy initiation in MSM.

BACKGROUND: Increased rates of testing, with early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, represent a key potential HIV-prevention approach. Currently, in MSM in the United Kingdom, it is estimated that 36% are diagnosed by 1 year from infection, and the ART initiation threshold is at CD4 cell count 350/µl. We investigated what would be required to reduce HIV incidence in MSM to below 1 per 1000 person-years (i.e. <535 new infections per year) by 2030, and whether this is likely to be cost-effective. METHODS: A dynamic, individual-based simulation model was calibrated to multiple data sources on HIV in MSM in the United Kingdom. Outcomes were projected according to future alternative HIV testing and ART initiation scenarios to 2030, considering also potential changes in levels of condomless sex. RESULTS: For ART use to result in an incidence of close to 1/1000 person-years requires the proportion of all HIV-positive MSM with viral suppression to increase from below 60% currently to 90%, assuming no rise in levels of condomless sex. Substantial increases in HIV testing, such that over 90% of men are diagnosed within a year of infection, would increase the proportion of HIV-positive men with viral suppression to 80%, and it would be 90%, if ART is initiated at diagnosis. The scenarios required for such a policy to be cost-effective are presented. CONCLUSION: This analysis provides targets for the proportion of all HIV-positive MSM with viral suppression required to achieve substantial reductions in HIV incidence.

Incidence and recurrence of boils and abscesses within the first year: a cohort study in UK primary care.

BACKGROUND: Boils and abscesses are common in primary care but the burden of recurrent infection is unknown. AIM: To investigate the incidence of and risk factors for recurrence of boil or abscess for individuals consulting primary care. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cohort study using electronic health records from primary care in the UK. METHOD: The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database was used to identify patients who had consulted their GP for a boil or abscess. Poisson regression was used to examine the relationship between age, sex, social deprivation, and consultation and to calculate the incidence of, and risk factors for, repeat consultation for a boil or abscess. RESULTS: Overall, 164 461 individuals were identified who consulted their GP for a boil or abscess between 1995 and 2010. The incidence of first consultation for a boil or abscess was 512 (95% CI = 509 to 515) per 100 000 person-years in females and 387 (95% CI = 385 to 390) per 100 000 person-years in males. First consultations were most frequent in younger age groups (16-34 years) and those with the greatest levels of social deprivation. The rate of repeat consultation for a new infection during follow up was 107.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 105.6 to 109.4) per 1000 person-years. Obesity (relative risk [RR] 1.3, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.3), diabetes (RR 1.3, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.3), smoking (RR 1.3, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.4), age <30 years (RR 1.2, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.3), and prior antibiotic use (RR 1.4, 95% CI = 1.3-1.4) were all associated with repeat consultation for a boil or abscess. CONCLUSION: Ten percent of patients with a boil or abscess develop a repeat boil or abscess within 12 months. Obesity, diabetes, young age, smoking, and prescription of an antibiotic in the 6 months before initial presentation were independently associated with recurrent infection, and may represent options for prevention.

Population-level impact and herd effects following human papillomavirus vaccination programmes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programmes were first implemented in several countries worldwide in 2007. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the population-level consequences and herd effects after female HPV vaccination programmes, to verify whether or not the high efficacy reported in randomised controlled clinical trials are materialising in real-world situations. METHODS: We searched the Medline and Embase databases (between Jan 1, 2007 and Feb 28, 2014) and conference abstracts for time-trend studies that analysed changes, between the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods, in the incidence or prevalence of at least one HPV-related endpoint: HPV infection, anogenital warts, and high-grade cervical lesions. We used random-effects models to derive pooled relative risk (RR) estimates. We stratified all analyses by age and sex. We did subgroup analyses by comparing studies according to vaccine type, vaccination coverage, and years since implementation of the vaccination programme. We assessed heterogeneity across studies using I(2) and χ(2) statistics and we did trends analysis to examine the dose-response association between HPV vaccination coverage and each study effect measure. FINDINGS: We identified 20 eligible studies, which were all undertaken in nine high-income countries and represent more than 140 million person-years of follow-up. In countries with female vaccination coverage of at least 50%, HPV type 16 and 18 infections decreased significantly between the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods by 68% (RR 0·32, 95% CI 0·19-0·52) and anogenital warts decreased significantly by 61% (0·39, 0·22-0·71) in girls 13-19 years of age. Significant reductions were also recorded in HPV types 31, 33, and 45 in this age group of girls (RR 0·72, 95% CI 0·54-0·96), which suggests cross-protection. Additionally, significant reductions in anogenital warts were also reported in boys younger than 20 years of age (0·66 [95% CI 0·47-0·91]) and in women 20-39 years of age (0·68 [95% CI 0·51-0·89]), which suggests herd effects. In countries with female vaccination coverage lower than 50%, significant reductions in HPV types 16 and 18 infection (RR 0·50, 95% CI 0·34-0·74]) and in anogenital warts (0·86 [95% CI 0·79-0·94]) occurred in girls younger than 20 years of age, with no indication of cross-protection or herd effects. INTERPRETATION: Our results are promising for the long-term population-level effects of HPV vaccination programmes. However, continued monitoring is essential to identify any signals of potential waning efficacy or type-replacement. FUNDING: The Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Diarrhoeal diseases and the global health agenda: measuring and changing priority.

We investigate priority setting and the global health agenda by analysing the control of diarrhoeal diseases (CDD). CDD was one of the 'twin engines' of the 1980s' child survival movement, but now has a low priority on the global health agenda, even though diarrhoeal diseases still claim around 1.5 million children annually. In this article, we develop a framework and four indicators of priority to measure CDD's overall prominence on the global health agenda over the last three decades: trends in treatment coverage, changes in perceived priority, changes in financial support and institutional involvement and bibliographic trends. We find that CDD's priority is now one-sixth to one-third of its level in 1985. We then use political analysis to suggest strategies for reframing CDD as an issue and promoting its priority on the global health agenda.

Time from human immunodeficiency virus seroconversion to reaching CD4+ cell count thresholds <200, <350, and <500 Cells/mm³: assessment of need following changes in treatment guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Recent updates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment guidelines have raised the CD4+ cell count thresholds for antiretroviral therapy initiation from 350 to 500 cells/mm(3) in the United States and from 200 to 350 cells/mm³ in mid- and low-income countries. Robust data of time from HIV seroconversion to CD4+ cell counts of 200, 350, and 500 cells/mm³ are lacking but are needed to inform health care planners of the likely impact and cost effectiveness of these and possible future changes in CD4+ cell count initiation threshold. METHODS: Using Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe data from individuals with well-estimated dates of HIV seroconversion, we fitted mixed models on the square root of CD4+ cell counts measured before combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation. Restricting analyses to adults (age >16 years), we predicted time between seroconversion and CD4+ cell count <200, <350, and <500 cells/mm³ as well as CD4+ cell count distribution and proportions reaching these thresholds at 1, 2, and 5 years after seroconversion. RESULTS: Median (interquartile range [IQR]) follow-up for the 18495 eligible individuals from seroconversion while cART-free was 3.7 years (1.5, 7). Most of the subjects were male (78%), had a median age at seroconversion of 30 years (IQR, 25-37 years), and were infected through sex between men (55%). Estimated median times (95% confidence interval [CI]) from seroconversion to CD4+ cell count <500, <350, and <200 cells/mm(3) were 1.19 (95% CI, 1.12-1.26), 4.19 (95% CI, 4.09-4.28), and 7.93 (95% CI, 7.76-8.09) years, respectively. Almost half of infected individuals would require treatment within 1 year of seroconversion for guidelines recommending its initiation at 500 cells/mm³, compared with 26% and 9% for guidelines recommending initiation at 350 and 200 cells/mm³, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest substantial increases in the number of individuals who require treatment and call for early HIV testing.

Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action.

The health effects of climate change have had relatively little attention from climate scientists and governments. Climate change will be a major threat to population health in the current century through its potential effects on communicable disease, heat stress, food and water security, extreme weather events, vulnerable shelter and population migration. This paper addresses three health-sector strategies to manage the health effects of climate change-promotion of mitigation, tackling the pathways that lead to ill-health and strengthening health systems. Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is affordable, and low-carbon technologies are available now or will be in the near future. Pathways to ill-health can be managed through better information, poverty reduction, technological innovation, social and cultural change and greater coordination of national and international institutions. Strengthening health systems requires increased investment in order to provide effective public health responses to climate-induced threats to health, equitable treatment of illness, promotion of low-carbon lifestyles and renewable energy solutions within health facilities. Mitigation and adaptation strategies will produce substantial benefits for health, such as reductions in obesity and heart disease, diabetes, stress and depression, pneumonia and asthma, as well as potential cost savings within the health sector. The case for mitigating climate change by reducing GHGs is overwhelming. The need to build population resilience to the global health threat from already unavoidable climate change is real and urgent. Action must not be delayed by contrarians, nor by catastrophic fatalists who say it is all too late.

Prevalence of masturbation and associated factors in a British national probability survey.

A stratified probability sample survey of the British general population, aged 16 to 44 years, was conducted from 1999 to 2001 (N = 11,161) using face-to-face interviewing and computer-assisted self-interviewing. We used these data to estimate the population prevalence of masturbation, and to identify sociodemographic, sexual behavioral, and attitudinal factors associated with reporting this behavior. Seventy-three percent of men and 36.8% of women reported masturbating in the 4 weeks prior to interview (95% confidence interval 71.5%-74.4% and 35.4%-38.2%, respectively). A number of sociodemographic and behavioral factors were associated with reporting masturbation. Among both men and women, reporting masturbation increased with higher levels of education and social class and was more common among those reporting sexual function problems. For women, masturbation was more likely among those who reported more frequent vaginal sex in the last four weeks, a greater repertoire of sexual activity (such as reporting oral and anal sex), and more sexual partners in the last year. In contrast, the prevalence of masturbation was lower among men reporting more frequent vaginal sex. Both men and women reporting same-sex partner(s) were significantly more likely to report masturbation. Masturbation is a common sexual practice with significant variations in reporting between men and women.

Sociodemographic and sexual health profile of users of emergency hormonal contraception: data from a British probability sample survey.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify factors associated with the use of emergency hormonal contraception (EHC). METHODS: Data from a probability sample survey of 12,110 men and women aged 16-44 living in Britain were used for this study; 5916 women were selected as potential users of EHC, defined as women reporting at least one male partner in the year prior to the survey. RESULTS: Of the 5916 women, 2.3% reported EHC use in the previous year. EHC use was more common among younger, single women, those with more than one sexual partner in the past year and those using condoms for contraception. It was significantly associated with experience of abortion (odds ratio adjusted for age, marital status and number of male partners: 2.40) but not with sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The use of EHC identifies a group of women at increased risk of unplanned pregnancy and condom use but not STI acquisition. Provision of information on more reliable contraceptive methods is needed to reduce the risk of unplanned pregnancy recurrence.

Ethnic variations in sexual activity and contraceptive use: national cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to compare data on contraceptive use in relation to reported sexual activity in women from different minority ethnic groups. DESIGN: We analyzed the National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles 2000. SUBJECTS: Women aged 16-44 years, numbering 6932 and residing in Britain, participated in this study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Our main outcome measures are as follows: percentage of women reporting sexual activity, use of contraception and type of contraception (hormonal, barrier or permanent methods). RESULTS: Overall, fewer women from the UK's four main ethnic minority groups reported recent sexual activity, compared with white women. Among sexually active women, contraceptive use was significantly lower in all ethnic minority groups than in white women, but this pattern differed according to marital status. In ever-married or cohabiting women, lower contraceptive use was reported by Indian (78%) and Pakistani women (74%) than by other groups. Among single women, black Caribbean (88%) and black African (82%) women reported using less contraception compared with white (95%) and Indian (100%) women. Women from all ethnic minority groups were less likely than white women to report using hormonal contraception and permanent methods and were more likely to use barrier methods. The differences between ethnic groups remained significant after adjusting for educational achievement and parity. Deprivation and acculturation did not account for the use of contraception or the type of contraceptive method used. CONCLUSION: Sexually active married Pakistani and Indian women reported the lowest overall use of contraception. Among sexually active single women, black African and black Caribbean women reported levels of contraceptive use that were lower than those reported by white women. Sexually active women from all four minority ethnic groups were less likely than white women to use reliable methods of contraception.