Assessment of seasonal forecasting errors of the ECMWF system in the eastern Indian Ocean.

The interannual variability of the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EEIO) is highly relevant for the climate anomalies on adjacent continents and affects global teleconnection patterns. Yet, this is an area where seasonal forecasting systems exhibit large errors. Here we investigate the reasons for these errors in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 using tailored diagnostics and a series of numerical experiments. Results indicate that there are two fundamental and independent sources of forecast errors in the EEIO. The first one is of atmospheric nature and is largely related with too strong and stable easterly atmospheric circulation present in the equatorial Indian Ocean. This induces an easterly bias which leaves the coupled model predominantly in a state with a shallow thermocline and cold SSTs in the EEIO. The second error is of oceanic origin, associated with a too shallow thermocline, which enhances the SST errors arising from errors in the wind. Ocean initial conditions, which depend on both the quality of the assimilation and the ocean model, play an important role in this context. Nevertheless, it is found that the version of the ocean model used for the forecast can also play a non-negligible role at the seasonal time scales, by amplifying or damping the subsurface errors in the initial conditions. Errors in the EEIO are regime-dependent, having different causes in the warm (deep thermocline) regime with strong atmospheric convection and in the cold (shallow thermocline) regime. Errors also exhibit decadal variations, which challenges the calibration methods used in seasonal forecasts. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-06985-3.

Interactions between the sex of the clinician grader and the sex of the chiropractic student intern on spinal manipulation assessment grade.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this project was to determine if there was any relationship between the sex of the clinician grader and the sex of the chiropractic student intern on student spinal manipulation assessment grades. METHODS: Twelve thousand six hundred and thirty-one supervised patient adjustments by student interns were analyzed over a 3-year data collection window. Student interns were assessed by multiple male and female clinicians in a teaching clinic using a modified Dreyfus model scoring system on a 1-4 scale (1 = novice, 4 = proficient). A Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the relationship between grader sex and student grade as well as student sex and student grade. RESULTS: Sex of the grader had a statistically significant effect on spinal manipulation assessment grade, p < .001, with male clinician graders assigning average scores of 2.81 ± 0.39 (mean ± SD) and female clinician graders scores of 3.01 ± 0.52, r = .18. Sex of the student had a statistically significant but negligible (r = .08) effect on spinal manipulation assessment grade, p < .001, with male students averaging slightly higher scores (2.93 ± 0.47) than females (2.86 ± 0.44) on the modified Dreyfus scale. CONCLUSION: Male clinicians tended to assign lower grades on spinal manipulation assessments than female clinicians. Male students on average received slightly higher scores than female students on spinal manipulation assessments.

Nationally Subsidized Continuous Glucose Monitoring: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) Initiative recently introduced universal subsidized CGM funding for people with type 1 diabetes under 21 years of age in Australia. We thus aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of this CGM Initiative based on national implementation data and project the economic impact of extending the subsidy to all age-groups. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used a patient-level Markov model to simulate disease progression for young people with type 1 diabetes and compared government-subsidized access to CGM with the previous user-funded system. Three years of real-world clinical input data were sourced from analysis of the Australasian Diabetes Data Network and National Diabetes Services Scheme registries. Costs were considered from the Australian health care system's perspective. An annual discount rate of 5% was applied to future costs and outcomes. Uncertainty was evaluated with probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Government-subsidized CGM funding for young people with type 1 diabetes compared with a completely user-funded model resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of AUD 39,518 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Most simulations (85%) were below the commonly accepted willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD 50,000 per QALY gained in Australia. Sensitivity analyses indicated that base-case results were robust, though strongly impacted by the cost of CGM devices. Extending the CGM Initiative throughout adulthood resulted in an ICER of AUD 34,890 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Providing subsidized access to CGM for people with type 1 diabetes was found to be cost-effective compared with a completely user-funded model in Australia.

Breastfeeding Sisters That Are Receiving Support: Community-Based Peer Support Program Created for and by Women of Color.

Substantial racial disparities accounted for 66% of non-Hispanic Black mothers initiating breastfeeding in 2015 compared with 83% of non-Hispanic white mothers and 87% of Hispanic mothers in Tennessee. Created in 2015, Breastfeeding Sisters That Are Receiving Support (BSTARS) uses key partnerships at monthly meetings that promote supportive environments with topics around breastfeeding education, support, and women's health issues. The BSTARS group helps rebuild the culture surrounding the health equity of Black women and women of color and their families by offering informational and emotional support, facilitate positive changes, and heal historical trauma. BSTARS addresses barriers to breastfeeding support for Black women and women of color, including lack of support from the mother's partner, family, or health care provider, generational myths, unawareness of public health programs to support breastfeeding, educational gaps, and embarrassment. This program incorporates critical partnerships, including health care providers, birth workers, and other supporters, into the organization to offer comprehensive support for the mother's continuity of care. The environment and educational support for breastfeeding and women's health issues are addressed under the lens of health equity and eliminating barriers experienced by the mother's color, or socioeconomic status. A mother's socioeconomic status often unjustly hinders her from receiving the lactation and social support needed for healthier outcomes. In 2019, the breastfeeding initiation rate in Tennessee increased to 71.3% among non-Hispanic Blacks. BSTARS has reached >500 families since its inception. BSTARS focuses their specific intervention on all facets of the family dyad, through teaching the importance of breastfeeding and breast milk now and sustainable for the future.

Ethical challenges in pathogen sequencing: a systematic scoping review.

Background: Going forward, the routine implementation of genomic surveillance activities and outbreak investigation is to be expected. We sought to systematically identify the emerging ethical challenges; and to systematically assess the gaps in ethical frameworks or thinking and identify where further work is needed to solve practical challenges. Methods: We systematically searched indexed academic literature from PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science from 2000 to April 2019 for peer-reviewed articles that substantively engaged in discussion of ethical issues in the use of pathogen genome sequencing technologies for diagnostic, surveillance and outbreak investigation. Results: 28 articles were identified; nine United States, five United Kingdom, five The Netherlands, three Canada, two Switzerland, one Australia, two South Africa, and one Italy. Eight articles were specifically about the use of sequencing in HIV. Eleven were not specific to a particular disease. Results were organized into four themes: tensions between public and private interests; difficulties with translation from research to clinical and public health practice; the importance of community trust and support; equity and global partnerships; and the importance of context. Conclusion: While pathogen sequencing has the potential to be transformative for public health, there are a number of key ethical issues that must be addressed, particularly around the conditions of use for pathogen sequence data. Ethical standards should be informed by public values, and further empirical work investigating stakeholders' views are required. Development in the field should also be under-pinned by a strong commitment to values of justice, in particular global health equity.

Development and implementation of a logic model: Occupational stress, physical activity, and sedentary behavior in the workplace.

BACKGROUND: An increasing level of occupational stress is a major problem in the workplace that requires innovative approaches and strategies. An understudied research area pertains to the effects that physical activity performed during the workday have on occupational stress. OBJECTIVE: To determine if and how an intervention that increases physical activity and reduces sedentary behavior affects workplace stress. The population of interest are employees at a large university medical center including supportive staff, healthcare professionals, physicians, and faculty members; the study design is longitudinal; the approach is the implementation of an innovative workplace program (i.e., the Booster Break). METHODS: We present a logic model promoting physical activity and reducing sitting time during the workday as a feasible and practical strategy to cope with occupational stress. RESULTS: The logic model approach emphasizes that funding, partnerships, and incentives are inputs to implementing program activities such as Booster Break sessions, weekly meetings, social support, and personal self-monitoring. Short-term outcomes were categorized as psychosocial, goal setting, organizational, and social; intermediate outcomes were behavioral and psychosocial; and long-term outcomes were health status and physiological status. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first known effort to outline a comprehensive intervention based on changing physical activity and sedentary behavior during the workday and the concomitant effects on occupational stress. The findings of this study can be used to develop and implement interventions at workplaces to target increases in physical activity, decreases in sedentary time, and improvements in overall employee health.

Advancing Global Health Equity in the COVID-19 Response: Beyond Solidarity.

In the coming weeks and months SARS-CoV-2 may ravage countries with weak health systems and populations disproportionately affected by HIV, tuberculosis (TB), and other infectious diseases. Without safeguards and proper attention to global health equity and justice, the effects of this pandemic are likely to exacerbate existing health and socio-economic inequalities. This paper argues that achieving global health equity in the context of COVID-19 will require that notions of reciprocity and relational equity are introduced to the response.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Routine Screening Using Massively Parallel Sequencing for Maturity-Onset Diabetes of the Young in a Pediatric Diabetes Cohort: Reduced Health System Costs and Improved Patient Quality of Life.

OBJECTIVE: Maturity-onset diabetes of the young (MODY) is an autosomal dominant form of diabetes, with multiple causative genes. Some MODY subtypes can be treated with sulfonylureas instead of insulin, improving glycemic control, complication rates, quality of life (QoL), and costs. Using massively parallel sequencing (MPS), we recently determined the prevalence of pathogenic/likely pathogenic MODY variants in an Australian pediatric diabetes cohort. Here, these data are used to estimate cost-effectiveness of using MPS for MODY in all pediatric diabetes cases compared with standard practice (sequencing limited to individuals with specific clinical features). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A Markov decision model was developed to estimate incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of MPS screening, modeled over 30 years. We used our observed prevalence of 2.14% compared with 0.7% for standard practice, based on published data. The probabilities and utility weightings of long-term diabetes complications were based on HbA1c and estimated from published data. A series of one-way sensitivity analyses were performed using the net monetary benefit framework. RESULTS: Routine MPS screening for MODY was more effective and less costly than standard care screening, with 26 QALYs gained and 1,016,000 AUD (782,000 USD) saved per 1,000 patients. Cost of screening was fully offset within 10 years. Routine MPS screening remained dominant until MODY prevalence fell to <1.1%. CONCLUSIONS: Routine MPS screening for MODY in the pediatric population with diabetes could reduce health system costs and improve patient QoL. Our results make a compelling argument for routine genetic screening in all children with presumed type 1 diabetes mellitus.

What do patients with cancer and their families value most at the end of life? A critical analysis of advance care planning.

BACKGROUND: Advance care planning (ACP) is defined in a variety of ways, although it is widely understood as a process undertaken by patients, when they have capacity, to define and communicate their treatment preferences for future care. Few studies have explored the meaning and importance patients place on their ability to participate in directing their medical care. AIM: This study aimed to explore how cancer patients and their family members value autonomy at the end of life (EoL) and understand how this may impact on the way they develop and act on EoL decisions and planning. METHODS: Data were collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews with patients and family members of people with cancer. Participants were recruited from metropolitan cancer centres in Sydney, Australia. Interviews were analysed using thematic analysis. FINDINGS: Findings from 11 participant interviews (five patients with cancer and six family members) were organised into four themes: 'the threat of death and cancer'; 'patients seek trust and safety at the end of life'; 'doctors are human and the healthcare system has limitations'; and 'the role of ACP'. Participants experienced cancer and death as a 'threat', to self and others and as something 'uncontrollable'. ACP was seen to have the potential to enhance EoL care by contributing to decreasing uncertainty, enhancing comfort, helping to achieve 'the small things', and in helping the family 'know what to do'. However, participants were, in general, distrustful of documentation and cognisant of uncertainty around medical outcomes and the legal limitations of their capacity to influence care. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that models of ACP which are constructed around patients' 'rights' to determine what happens to their bodies may do little to enhance the quality of EoL care, as patients value veracity, trust and comfort at the EoL more than autonomy. Quality EoL care should focus on paying increased attention to the relational and social aspects of care.

Integrative Literature Review of Factors Related to Breastfeeding in African American Women: Evidence for a Potential Paradigm Shift.

BACKGROUND: Human milk has widespread health benefits for infants, mothers, and society. However, not all populations of women, particularly African American women, engage in human milk feeding at high rates. Research aim: The purpose of this integrative literature review is twofold: (a) to examine factors that influence low rates of human milk feeding among African American women and (b) to introduce a need for a methodological paradigm shift to develop culturally relevant and effective interventions. METHODS: The authors searched four electronic social science databases for peer-reviewed journal articles pertaining to human milk among African American women published from 1990 to 2015. Both coauthors independently assessed these articles using thematic analysis and validation. The database search yielded 47 peer-reviewed articles. RESULTS: Three main themes emerged explaining the human milk feeding disparity: (a) the social characteristics of women likely not to feed human milk (e.g., low socioeconomic status, single); (b) women's perceptions of human milk feeding; and (c) the quality of human milk feeding information provided by health care providers (i.e., limited human milk information). CONCLUSION: Current literature does include sociohistorical factors that have shaped current norms. Adding sociohistorical frameworks, paying particular attention to the embodied experience of historical trauma, could lead to the development of new evidence-based, culturally sensitive interventions to enhance human milk feeding in the African American community.

Advance care planning in patients with incurable cancer: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: There is limited evidence documenting the effectiveness of Advance Care Planning (ACP) in cancer care. The present randomised trial is designed to evaluate whether the administration of formal ACP improves compliance with patients' end-of-life (EOL) wishes and patient and family satisfaction with care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A randomised control trial in eight oncology centres across New South Wales and Victoria, Australia, is designed to assess the efficacy of a formal ACP intervention for patients with cancer. Patients with incurable cancer and an expected survival of 3-12 months, plus a nominated family member or friend will be randomised to receive either standard care or standard care plus a formal ACP intervention. The project sample size is 210 patient-family/friend dyads. The primary outcome measure is family/friend-reported: (1) discussion with the patient about their EOL wishes and (2) perception that the patient's EOL wishes were met. Secondary outcome measures include: documentation of and compliance with patient preferences for medical intervention at the EOL; the family/friend's perception of the quality of the patient's EOL care; the impact of death on surviving family; patient-family and patient-healthcare provider communication about EOL care; patient and family/friend satisfaction with care; quality of life of patient and family/friend subsequent to trial entry, the patient's strength of preferences for quality of life and length of life; the costs of care subsequent to trial entry and place of death. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was received from the Sydney Local Health District (RPA Zone) Human Research Ethical Committee, Australia (Protocol number X13-0064). Study results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and presented at national and international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Pre-results; ACTRN12613001288718.

Multiple LacI-mediated loops revealed by Bayesian statistics and tethered particle motion.

The bacterial transcription factor LacI loops DNA by binding to two separate locations on the DNA simultaneously. Despite being one of the best-studied model systems for transcriptional regulation, the number and conformations of loop structures accessible to LacI remain unclear, though the importance of multiple coexisting loops has been implicated in interactions between LacI and other cellular regulators of gene expression. To probe this issue, we have developed a new analysis method for tethered particle motion, a versatile and commonly used in vitro single-molecule technique. Our method, vbTPM, performs variational Bayesian inference in hidden Markov models. It learns the number of distinct states (i.e. DNA-protein conformations) directly from tethered particle motion data with better resolution than existing methods, while easily correcting for common experimental artifacts. Studying short (roughly 100 bp) LacI-mediated loops, we provide evidence for three distinct loop structures, more than previously reported in single-molecule studies. Moreover, our results confirm that changes in LacI conformation and DNA-binding topology both contribute to the repertoire of LacI-mediated loops formed in vitro, and provide qualitatively new input for models of looping and transcriptional regulation. We expect vbTPM to be broadly useful for probing complex protein-nucleic acid interactions.

Oral cancer screening and socioeconomic status.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if awareness of oral cancer screening correlates with socioeconomic status (SES) and to determine if screening for oral cancer correlates with SES. SETTING: Data were obtained from the 2008 American National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). METHODS: Our primary measure of SES was education; additional measures for SES included income, race, health insurance, and immigration status. We performed a logistic regression analysis, controlling for important demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Awareness of oral cancer screening increases with higher education levels (< grade 9 OR 0.37 [CI 0.29-0.48], grade 9-12 OR 0.53 [CI 0.44-0.65], high school OR 0.68 [CI 0.59-0.77], higher degree OR 1.13 [CI 0.96-1.34]). Similarly, screening for oral cancer increases with higher education levels (< grade 9 OR 0.31 [CI 0.23-0.42], grade 9-12 OR 0.34 [CI 0.26-0.43], high school OR 0.60 [CI 0.52-0.68], higher degree OR 1.41 [CI 1.18-1.67]). We found that race, income, immigration, and health insurance status were statistically significant correlates with oral cancer awareness and screening. CONCLUSIONS: Higher SES individuals are more likely to be aware of and screened for oral cancer. This is problematic because oral cancers are more prevalent in low SES groups. Future awareness and screening campaigns should be directed at vulnerable low SES populations.

Test-retest repeatability of MR elastography for noninvasive liver fibrosis assessment in hepatitis C.

PURPOSE: To conduct a rigorous evaluation of the repeatability of liver stiffness assessed by MR elastography (MRE) in healthy and hepatitis-C-infected subjects. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A biopsy-correlated repeatability study using four-slice MRE was conducted in five healthy and four HCV-infected subjects. Subjects were scanned twice on day 1 and after 7-14 days. Each slice was acquired during a 14-s breath-hold with a commercially available acquisition technique (MR-Touch, GE Healthcare). Results were analyzed by two independent analysts. RESULTS: The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was 0.85 (90% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71 to 0.98) for the between-scan average of maximum stiffness within each slice and 0.88 (90% CI: 0.78 to 0.99) for the average of mean stiffness within each slice for the primary analyst. For both analysts, the average of the mean liver stiffness within each slice was highly reproducible with ICC of 0.93 and 0.94. Within-subject coefficients of variation ranged from 6.07% to 10.78% for HCV+ and healthy subjects. CONCLUSION: MRE is a highly reproducible modality for assessing liver stiffness in HCV patients and healthy subjects and can discriminate between moderate fibrosis and healthy liver. MRE is a promising modality for noninvasive assessment of liver fibrosis (CLINICALTRIALS.GOV IDENTIFIER: NCT00896233).

The everyday routines of families of children with autism: examining the impact of sensory processing difficulties on the family.

The purpose of this qualitative study was to explore the lived experience of how sensory-related behaviors of children with autism affected family routines. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with four primary caregivers regarding the meaning and impact of their child's sensory-related behaviors on family routines that occurred inside and outside the home. Findings indicated that sensory behaviors are one factor that limited family participation in work, family and leisure activities; and that parents employed specific strategies to manage individual and family routines in light of the child's sensory-related behaviors. This information has important implications for professionals who work with families of children with autism to decrease caregiver stress and to increase life satisfaction for the child and family.