Cost-effectiveness of system-level mental health strategies for young people in the Australian Capital Territory: a dynamic simulation modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Regional mental health planning is a key challenge for decision makers because mental health care is a complex, dynamic system. Economic evaluation using a system dynamics modelling approach presents an opportunity for more sophisticated planning and important evidence on the value of alternative investments. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of eight systems-based interventions targeted at improving the mental health and wellbeing of children, adolescents, and young adults in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). METHODS: We assessed eight interventions for children and young people (aged ≤25 years) with low, moderate, and high-to-very-high psychological distress: technology-enabled integrated care, emergency department-based suicide prevention, crisis response service, family education programme, online parenting programme, school-based suicide prevention programme, trauma service for youths, and multicultural-informed care. We developed a system dynamics model for the ACT through a participatory process and calibrated the model with historical data, including population demographics, the prevalence of psychological distress, and mental health services provision. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with business as usual for cost (AU$) per: quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), suicide death avoided, self-harm related hospital admissions avoided, and mental health-related emergency department presentation, using a 10-year time horizon for health-care and societal perspectives. We investigated uncertainty through probabilistic sensitivity analysis and deterministic sensitivity analysis, including using a 30-year timeframe. FINDINGS: From a societal perspective, increased investment in technology-enabled integrated care, family education, an online parenting programme, and multicultural-informed care were expected to improve health outcomes (incremental QALYs 4517 [95% UI -3135 to 14 507] for technology-enabled integrated care; 339 [91 to 661] for family education; 724 [114 to 1149] for the online parenting programme; and 137 [88 to 194] for multicultural-informed care) and reduce costs ($-91·4 million [-382·7 to 100·7]; $-12·8 million [-21·0 to -6·6]; $-3·6 million  [-6·3 to 0·2]; and $-3·1 million [-4·5 to -1·8], respectively) compared with business as usual using a 10-year time horizon. The incremental net monetary benefit for the societal perspective for these four interventions was $452 million (-351 to 1555), $40 million (14 to 74), $61 million (9 to 98), and $14 million (9 to 20), respectively, compared with business as usual, when QALYs were monetised using a willingness to pay of $79 930 per QALY. Synergistic effects are anticipated if these interventions were to be implemented concurrently. The univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicated a high level of certainty in the results. Although emergency department-based suicide prevention and school-based suicide prevention were not cost effective in the base case (41 QALYs [0 to 48], incremental cost $4·1 million [1·2 to 8·2] for emergency department-based suicide prevention; -234 QALYs [-764 to 12], incremental cost $90·3 million [72·2 to 111·0] for school-based suicide prevention) compared with business as usual, there were scenarios for which these interventions could be considered cost effective. A dedicated trauma service for young people (9 QALYs gained [4 to 16], incremental cost $8·3 million [6·8 to 10·0]) and a crisis response service (-11 QALYs gained [-12 to -10], incremental cost $7·8 million [5·1 to 11·0]) were unlikely to be cost effective in terms of QALYs. INTERPRETATION: Synergistic effects were identified, supporting the combined implementation of technology-enabled integrated care, family education, an online parenting programme, and multicultural-informed care. Synergistic effects, emergent outcomes in the form of unintended consequences, the capability to account for service capacity constraints, and ease of use by stakeholders are unique attributes of a system dynamics modelling approach to economic evaluation. FUNDING: BHP Foundation.

Early Assessment of Chemotherapy Response in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer with Circulating Tumor DNA.

Monitoring treatment efficacy early during therapy could enable a change in treatment to improve patient outcomes. We report an early assessment of response to treatment in advanced NSCLC using a plasma-only strategy to measure changes in ctDNA levels after one cycle of chemotherapy. Plasma samples were collected from 92 patients with Stage IIIB-IV NSCLC treated with first-line chemo- or chemoradiation therapies in an observational, prospective study. Retrospective ctDNA analysis was performed using next-generation sequencing with a targeted 198-kb panel designed for lung cancer surveillance and monitoring. We assessed whether changes in ctDNA levels after one or two cycles of treatment were associated with clinical outcomes. Subjects with ≤50% decrease in ctDNA level after one cycle of chemotherapy had a lower 6-month progression-free survival rate (33% vs. 58%, HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2 to 4.2, log-rank p = 0.009) and a lower 12-month overall survival rate (25% vs. 70%, HR 4.3, 95% CI 2.2 to 9.7, log-rank p < 0.001). Subjects with ≤50% decrease in ctDNA level after two cycles of chemotherapy also had shorter survival. Using non-invasive liquid biopsies to measure early changes in ctDNA levels in response to chemotherapy may help identify non-responders before standard-of-care imaging in advanced NSCLC.

Which Social, Economic, and Health Sector Strategies Will Deliver the Greatest Impacts for Youth Mental Health and Suicide Prevention? Protocol for an Advanced, Systems Modelling Approach.

Background: Current global challenges are generating extensive social disruption and uncertainty that have the potential to undermine the mental health, wellbeing, and futures of young people. The scale and complexity of challenges call for engagement with systems science-based decision analytic tools that can capture the dynamics and interrelationships between physical, social, economic, and health systems, and support effective national and regional responses. At the outset of the pandemic mental health-related systems models were developed for the Australian context, however, the extent to which findings are generalisable across diverse regions remains unknown. This study aims to explore the context dependency of systems modelling insights. Methods: This study will employ a comparative case study design, applying participatory system dynamics modelling across eight diverse regions of Australia to answer three primary research questions: (i) Will current regional differences in key youth mental health outcomes be exacerbated in forward projections due to the social and economic impacts of COVID-19?; (ii) What combination of social policies and health system strengthening initiatives will deliver the greatest impacts within each region?; (iii) To what extent are optimal strategic responses consistent across the diverse regions? We provide a detailed technical blueprint as a potential springboard for more timely construction and deployment of systems models in international contexts to facilitate a broader examination of the question of generalisability and inform investments in the mental health and wellbeing of young people in the post COVID-19 recovery. Discussion: Computer simulation is known as the third pillar of science (after theory and experiment). Simulation allows researchers and decision makers to move beyond what can be manipulated within the scale, time, and ethical limits of the experimental approach. Such learning when achieved collectively, has the potential to enhance regional self-determination, help move beyond incremental adjustments to the status quo, and catalyze transformational change. This research seeks to advance efforts to establish regional decision support infrastructure and empower communities to effectively respond. In addition, this research seeks to move towards an understanding of the extent to which systems modelling insights may be relevant to the global mental health response by encouraging researchers to use, challenge, and advance the existing work for scientific and societal progress.

Assessment of a Highly Curated Somatic Oncology Database to Aid in the Interpretation of Clinically Important Variants in Next-Generation Sequencing Results.

This study evaluated the accuracy of NAVIFY Mutation Profiler, a cloud-based CE-IVD software that aids in interpreting clinically relevant variants detected in somatic oncology next-generation sequencing tests. This tool reports tiered classifications based on different levels of clinical evidence from a highly curated, regularly updated database derived from medical guidelines, drug approvals, and peer-reviewed literature. A retrospective analysis was performed on next-generation sequencing results from 37 lung cancer cases treated with chemotherapy (n = 10), EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) (n = 5), or ALK TKI (n = 22). Several aspects were assessed, including accuracy of interpretation compared with manual curation, validity of curation content updates over time, and agreement with public databases. For chemotherapy cases with no targetable biomarkers, NAVIFY Mutation Profiler did not identify any targeted therapies. In EGFR and ALK TKI cases, the software associated appropriate targeted therapies and accurately interpreted variant combinations containing drug-resistance variants. Of the nine unique ALK mutations conferring resistance to crizotinib, NAVIFY Mutation Profiler provided correct annotation for all mutations, whereas OncoKB and Catalogue of Somatic Mutations in Cancer indicated crizotinib resistance for eight of nine mutations. For 145 variants analyzed, NAVIFY Mutation Profiler and OncoKB showed substantial agreement (Cohen κ = 0.62) for classifying actionable mutations. Furthermore, NAVIFY Mutation Profiler presented accurate targeted therapies across different regions and remained up-to-date with evolving regional approvals and medical guidelines.

Association of Kidney Function With 30-Day and 1-Year Poststroke Mortality and Hospital Readmission.

Background and Purpose- Kidney dysfunction is common among patients hospitalized for ischemic stroke. Understanding the association of kidney disease with poststroke outcomes is important to properly adjust for case mix in outcome studies, payment models and risk-standardized hospital readmission rates. Methods- In this cohort study of fee-for-service Medicare patients admitted with ischemic stroke to 1579 Get With The Guidelines-Stroke participating hospitals between 2009 and 2014, adjusted multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the independent associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and dialysis status with 30-day and 1-year postdischarge mortality and rehospitalizations. Results- Of 204 652 patients discharged alive (median age [25th-75th percentile] 80 years [73.0-86.0], 57.6% women, 79.8% white), 48.8% had an eGFR ≥60, 26.5% an eGFR 45 to 59, 16.3% an eGFR 30 to 44, 5.1% an eGFR 15 to 29, 0.6% an eGFR <15 without dialysis, and 2.8% were receiving dialysis. Compared with eGFR ≥60, and after adjusting for relevant variables, eGFR <45 was associated with increased 30-day mortality with the risk highest among those with eGFR <15 without dialysis (hazard ratio [HR], 2.09; 95% CI, 1.66-2.63). An eGFR <60 was associated with increased 1-year poststroke mortality that was highest among patients on dialysis (HR, 2.65; 95% CI, 2.49-2.81). Dialysis was also associated with the highest 30-day and 1-year rehospitalization rates (HR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.95-2.26 and HR, 2.55; 95% CI, 2.44-2.66, respectively) and 30-day and 1-year composite of mortality and rehospitalization (HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.90-2.18 and HR, 2.46; 95% CI, 2.36-2.56, respectively). Conclusions- Within the first year after index hospitalization for ischemic stroke, eGFR and dialysis status on admission are associated with poststroke mortality and hospital readmissions. Kidney function should be included in risk-stratification models for poststroke outcomes.

Renal Dysfunction Is Associated With Poststroke Discharge Disposition and In-Hospital Mortality: Findings From Get With The Guidelines-Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Kidney disease is a frequent comorbidity in patients presenting with acute ischemic stroke. We evaluated whether the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on admission is associated with poststroke in-hospital mortality or discharge disposition. METHODS: In this cohort study, data from ischemic stroke patients in Get With The Guidelines-Stroke linked to fee-for-service Medicare data were analyzed. The Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study equation was used to calculate the eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2). Dialysis was identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes. Adjusted multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the independent associations of eGFR with discharge disposition and in-hospital mortality. Adjusted individual models also examined whether the association of clinical and demographic factors with outcomes varied by eGFR level. RESULTS: Of 232 236 patients, 47.3% had an eGFR ≥60, 26.6% an eGFR 45 to 59, 16.8% an eGFR 30 to 44, 5.6% an eGFR 15 to 29, 0.7% an eGFR<15 without dialysis, and 2.8% were receiving dialysis. Of the total cohort, 11.8% died during the hospitalization or were discharged to hospice, and 38.6% were discharged home. After adjusting for other relevant variables, renal dysfunction was independently associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality that was highest among those with eGFR <15 without dialysis (odds ratio, 2.52; 95% confidence interval, 2.07-3.07). An eGFR 15 to 29 (odds ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.87), eGFR <15 (odds ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.86), and dialysis (odds ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.94) remained associated with lower odds of being discharged home. In addition, the associations of several clinical and demographic factors with outcomes varied by eGFR level. CONCLUSIONS: eGFR on admission is an important predictor of poststroke short-term outcomes.

Impact of Proton Pump Inhibitor Use on the Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of Prasugrel Versus Clopidogrel: Insights From the Treatment With Adenosine Diphosphate Receptor Inhibitors: Longitudinal Assessment of Treatment Patterns and Events After Acute Coronary Syndrome (TRANSLATE-ACS) Study.

BACKGROUND: Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) reduce gastrointestinal bleeding events but may alter clopidogrel metabolism. We sought to understand the comparative effectiveness and safety of prasugrel versus clopidogrel in the context of proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using data on 11 955 acute myocardial infarction (MI) patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention at 233 hospitals and enrolled in the TRANSLATE-ACS study, we compared whether discharge PPI use altered the association of 1-year adjusted risks of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; death, MI, stroke, or unplanned revascularization) and Global Use of Strategies To Open Occluded Arteries (GUSTO) moderate/severe bleeding between prasugrel- and clopidogrel-treated patients. Overall, 17% of prasugrel-treated and 19% of clopidogrel-treated patients received a PPI at hospital discharge. At 1 year, patients discharged on a PPI versus no PPI had higher risks of MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21-1.58) and GUSTO moderate/severe bleeding (adjusted HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.15-2.09). Risk of MACE was similar between prasugrel and clopidogrel regardless of PPI use (adjusted HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.62-1.26 with PPI, adjusted HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.90-1.28 without PPI, interaction P=0.31). Comparative bleeding risk associated with prasugrel versus clopidogrel use differed based on PPI use but did not reach statistical significance (adjusted HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.36-1.48 with PPI, adjusted HR 1.34, 95% CI 0.79-2.27 without PPI, interaction P=0.17). CONCLUSIONS: PPIs did not significantly affect the MACE and bleeding risk associated with prasugrel use, relative to clopidogrel. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01088503.

Early Cessation of Adenosine Diphosphate Receptor Inhibitors Among Acute Myocardial Infarction Patients Treated With Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Insights From the TRANSLATE-ACS Study (Treatment With Adenosine Diphosphate Receptor Inhibitors: Longitudinal Assessment of Treatment Patterns and Events After Acute Coronary Syndrome).

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend the use of adenosine diphosphate receptor inhibitor (ADPri) therapy for 1 year postacute myocardial infarction; yet, early cessation of therapy occurs frequently in clinical practice. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined 11 858 acute myocardial infarction patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention discharged alive on ADPri therapy from 233 United States TRANSLATE-ACS study (Treatment With Adenosine Diphosphate Receptor Inhibitors: Longitudinal Assessment of Treatment Patterns and Events After Acute Coronary Syndrome) participating hospitals to determine the prevalence of early ADPri cessation (within 1 year), patient-reported reasons for cessation, and associated risk of major adverse cardiovascular events at 1 year. Overall, 2514 (21.2%) of percutaneous coronary intervention-treated patients stopped ADPri by 1 year postmyocardial infarction; the median time from discharge to cessation was 200.5 days (25th, 75th percentiles: 71, 340). Among those with early ADPri cessation, 53.9% received drug-eluting stents and had a median duration of 301 treatment days (25th, 75th percentiles: 137, 353); 33.3% of drug-eluting stent patients stopped treatment within 6 months compared with 64.2% of bare metal stent patients. Those discharged on prasugrel (versus clopidogrel) had a slightly higher likelihood of early ADPri cessation (23.2% versus 21.0%; P=0.03; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.40). Patient-reported reasons for early ADPri cessation included physician-recommended discontinuation (54%), as well as patient self-discontinuation, because of cost (19%), medication side effects (9%), and procedural interruption (10%). Using a time-dependent covariate model, early cessation of ADPri therapy was associated with increased major adverse cardiovascular event (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-1.65; P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: One in 5 percutaneous coronary intervention-treated myocardial infarction patients stopped ADPri treatment within 1 year. Early cessation was associated with increased major adverse cardiovascular event risk. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01088503.

Trends in 30-Day Readmission Rates for Patients Hospitalized With Heart Failure: Findings From the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure Registry.

BACKGROUND: Reducing hospital readmissions for patients with heart failure is a national priority, and quality improvement campaigns are targeting reductions of ≥20%. However, there are limited data on whether such targets have been met. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from the American Heart Association's Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry linked to Medicare claims between 2009 and 2012 to describe trends and relative reduction of rates of 30-day all-cause readmission among patients with heart failure. A total of 21,264 patients with heart failure were included from 70 US sites from January 2009 to October 2012. Overall hospital-level, risk-adjusted, 30-day all-cause readmission rates declined slightly, from 20.0% (SD, 1.3%) in 2009 to 19.0% (SD, 1.2%) in 2012 (P=0.001). Only 1 in 70 (1.4%) hospitals achieved the 20% relative reduction in 30-day risk-adjusted readmission rates. A multivariable linear regression model was used to determine hospital-level factors associated with relative improvements in 30-day risk-adjusted readmissions between 2009 and 2012. Teaching hospitals had higher relative readmission rates as compared with their peers, and hospitals that used postdischarge heart failure disease management programs had lower relative readmission rates. CONCLUSIONS: Although there has been slight improvement in 30-day all-cause readmission rates during the past 4 years in patients with heart failure, few hospitals have seen large success.