Cost-effectiveness of induction of labor at 39 weeks vs expectant management by cervical examination.

BACKGROUND: Previous analyses have demonstrated the cost effectiveness of elective induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation for healthy nulliparous people. However, elective induction of labor is resource intensive, and optimal resource allocation requires a thorough understanding of which subgroups of patients will benefit most. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine whether induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation is more cost-effective in patients with favorable or unfavorable cervical examinations. STUDY DESIGN: We constructed 2 decision analysis models using TreeAge software: one modeling induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation vs expectant management for a group of nulliparous patients with unfavorable cervical examinations and the other modeling induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation vs expectant management for a group with favorable cervical examinations. Estimates of cost, probability, and health state utility were derived from the literature. Based on previous literature, we assumed that people with favorable cervical examinations would have a lower baseline rate of cesarean delivery and higher rates of spontaneous labor. RESULTS: In our base case analysis, induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation was cost-effective for patients with unfavorable cervical examinations, but not for patients with favorable cervical examinations. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year was 50-fold lower for people with unfavorable cervical examinations ($2150 vs $115,100). Induction of labor resulted in 3885 fewer cesarean deliveries and 58 fewer stillbirths per 100,000 patients for those with unfavorable examinations, whereas induction of labor resulted in 2293 fewer cesarean deliveries and 48 fewer stillbirths with labor induction for those with favorable cervical examinations. The results were sensitive to multiple inputs, including the likelihood of cesarean delivery, the cost of induction, the cost of vaginal or cesarean delivery, and the probability of spontaneous labor. In Monte Carlo analysis, the base case findings held true for 64.1% of modeled scenarios for patients with unfavorable cervixes and 55.4% of modeled scenarios for patients with favorable cervixes. CONCLUSION: With a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year, induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation may be cost-effective for patients with unfavorable cervical examinations, but not for patients with favorable cervical examinations. This result was driven by the likelihood of labor in patients with favorable cervical examinations, and the resultant avoidance of prolonged pregnancy and its complications, including hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and stillbirths. Health systems may wish to prioritize patients with unfavorable cervical examinations for elective induction of labor at 39 weeks of gestation, which may be opposite to common practice.

The Application of a Standard Risk Threshold for the Stratification of Maternal Morbidity among Population Subgroups.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine if a universally applied risk score threshold for severe maternal morbidity (SMM) resulted in different performance characteristics among subgroups of the population. STUDY DESIGN: This is a retrospective cohort study of deliveries that occurred between July 1, 2016, and June 30, 2020, in a single health system. We examined the performance of a validated comorbidity score to stratify SMM risk in our cohort. We considered the risk score that was associated with the highest decile of predicted risk as a "screen positive" for morbidity. We then used this same threshold to calculate the sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of this "highest risk" designation among subgroups of the overall cohort based on the following characteristics: age, race/ethnicity, parity, gestational age, and planned mode of delivery. RESULTS: In the overall cohort of 53,982 women, the C-statistic was 0.755 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.741-0.769) and calibration plot demonstrated that the risk score was well calibrated. The model performed less well in the following groups: non-White or Hispanic (C-statistic, 0.734; 95% CI, 0.712-0.755), nulliparas (C-statistic, 0.735; 95% CI, 0.716-0.754), term deliveries (C-statistic, 0.712; 95% CI, 0.694-0.729), and planned vaginal delivery (C-statistic, 0.728; 95% CI, 0.709-0.747). There were differences in the PPVs by gestational age (7.8% term and 29.7% preterm) and by planned mode of delivery (8.7% vaginal and 17.7% cesarean delivery). Sensitivities were lower in women who were <35 years (36.6%), non-White or Hispanic (40.7%), nulliparous (38.9%), and those having a planned vaginal delivery (40.9%) than their counterparts. CONCLUSION: The performance of a risk score for SMM can vary by population subgroups when using standard thresholds derived from the overall cohort. If applied without such considerations, such thresholds may be less likely to identify certain subgroups of the population that may be at increased risk of SMM. KEY POINTS: · Predictive risk models are helpful at condensing complex information into an interpretable output.. · Model performance may vary among different population subgroups.. · Prediction models should be examined for their potential to exacerbate underlying disparities..

Natural language processing of admission notes to predict severe maternal morbidity during the delivery encounter.

BACKGROUND: Severe maternal morbidity and mortality remain public health priorities in the United States, given their high rates relative to other high-income countries and the notable racial and ethnic disparities that exist. In general, accurate risk stratification methods are needed to help patients, providers, hospitals, and health systems plan for and potentially avert adverse outcomes. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to understand if machine learning methods with natural language processing of history and physical notes could identify a group of patients at high risk of maternal morbidity on admission for delivery without relying on any additional patient information (eg, demographics and diagnosis codes). STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective study of people admitted for delivery at 2 hospitals (hospitals A and B) in a single healthcare system between July 1, 2016, and June 30, 2020. The primary outcome was severe maternal morbidity, as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; furthermore, we examined nontransfusion severe maternal morbidity. Clinician documents designated as history and physical notes were extracted from the electronic health record for processing and analysis. A bag-of-words approach was used for this natural language processing analysis (ie, each history or physical note was converted into a matrix of counts of individual words (or phrases) that occurred within the document). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator models were used to generate prediction probabilities for severe maternal morbidity and nontransfusion severe maternal morbidity for each note. Model discrimination was assessed via the area under the receiver operating curve. Discrimination was compared between models using the DeLong test. Calibration plots were generated to assess model calibration. Moreover, the natural language processing models with history and physical note texts were compared with validated obstetrical comorbidity risk scores based on diagnosis codes. RESULTS: There were 13,572 delivery encounters with history and physical notes from hospital A, split between training (Atrain, n=10,250) and testing (Atest, n=3,322) datasets for model derivation and internal validation. There were 23,397 delivery encounters with history and physical notes from hospital B (Bvalid) used for external validation. For the outcome of severe maternal morbidity, the natural language processing model had an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.72) and 0.72 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.74) in the Atest and Bvalid datasets, respectively. For the outcome of nontransfusion severe maternal morbidity, the area under the receiver operating curve was 0.72 (95% confidence interval, 0.65-0.80) and 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.79) in the Atest and Bvalid datasets, respectively. The calibration plots demonstrated the bag-of-words model's ability to distinguish a group of individuals at a substantially higher risk of severe maternal morbidity and nontransfusion severe maternal morbidity, notably those in the top deciles of predicted risk. Areas under the receiver operating curve in the natural language processing-based models were similar to those generated using a validated, retrospectively derived, diagnosis code-based comorbidity score. CONCLUSION: In this practical application of machine learning, we demonstrated the capabilities of natural language processing for the prediction of severe maternal morbidity based on provider documentation inherently generated at the time of admission. This work should serve as a catalyst for providers, hospitals, and electronic health record systems to explore ways that artificial intelligence can be incorporated into clinical practice and evaluated rigorously for their ability to improve health.

Postpartum readmission and uninsurance at readmission for Medicaid vs privately insured births.

BACKGROUND: Routine postpartum care is essential for managing pregnancy complications, like hypertension and diabetes, or screening for new conditions, such as depression. Insurance coverage can impact women's ability to access these postpartum services, with women who change or lose insurance postpartum having a lower likelihood of receiving the recommended postpartum care. Pregnancy-related Medicaid eligibility is only federally guaranteed for a minimum of 60 days after birth, creating the potential for publicly insured women to lose their insurance and their access to postpartum care. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine the rates of postpartum readmission and predictors of uninsurance at readmission before and after 60 days postpartum for Medicaid vs privately paid births. STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study in which data from the 2017 Nationwide Readmissions Database were used. Women who delivered with Medicaid or private insurance between January 2017 and June 2017 were included. Potential readmissions that were identified between 0 and 180 days after their childbirth hospitalization were included. The primary outcomes of interest were postpartum readmission and delivery payer at postpartum readmission, evaluated at 30-day intervals up to 180 days postpartum. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to determine the association of the risk for readmission and the risk for being uninsured at the time of readmission with insurance provider at the time of delivery. The analysis was also conducted for a subset of acute-cause readmissions or those not likely to be related to chronic or preexisting medical conditions. RESULTS: A total of 24,719 (2.7%) patients were readmitted within 180 days after delivery: 14,179 (54.1%) had Medicaid delivery insurance and 10,540 (40.2%) had private insurance at delivery. Readmission rates decreased over the time intervals after delivery for both delivery payer types, but were consistently higher for those with Medicaid. The rate of uninsurance at readmission increased more with each postpartum month for those with Medicaid than for those with private insurance at delivery: from 0.9% (95% confidence interval, 0.7-1.1) at 0 to 30 days to 9.7% (95% confidence interval, 8.1-11.6) at 150 to 180 days postpartum for those with Medicaid and from 0.2% (95% confidence interval, 0.1-0.4) at 0 to 30 days to 2.6% (95% confidence interval, 1.6-4.1) at 150 to 180 days postpartum for those with private insurance. Medicaid coverage at the time of delivery was a significant predictor of being readmitted (adjusted odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.75-1.97) and uninsured at the time of readmission (adjusted odds ratio, 3.99; 95% confidence interval, 2.88-5.52) when compared with being privately insured. Findings were similar for the acute-cause readmissions. CONCLUSION: Women with Medicaid at delivery have a higher risk for readmission and uninsurance at readmission than privately insured women beyond 60 days postpartum. This analysis provides further evidence of the insurance instability women face in the postpartum period, especially by those insured by Medicaid at the time of delivery, and should promote discussions among policymakers, payers, and providers on strategies to ensure coverage and access to care for women and their families after childbirth. For states considering to expand their eligibility criteria to 1 year postpartum, this study provides evidence on the vulnerabilities and unique risks that women with Medicaid face after 60 days postpartum.

Assessment of Maternal and Neonatal SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load, Transplacental Antibody Transfer, and Placental Pathology in Pregnancies During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Biological data are lacking with respect to risk of vertical transmission and mechanisms of fetoplacental protection in maternal severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Objective: To quantify SARS-CoV-2 viral load in maternal and neonatal biofluids, transplacental passage of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody, and incidence of fetoplacental infection. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was conducted among pregnant women presenting for care at 3 tertiary care centers in Boston, Massachusetts. Women with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) results positive for SARS-CoV-2 were recruited from April 2 to June 13, 2020, and follow-up occurred through July 10, 2020. Contemporaneous participants without SARS-CoV-2 infection were enrolled as a convenience sample from pregnant women with RT-PCR results negative for SARS-CoV-2. Exposures: SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy, defined by nasopharyngeal swab RT-PCR. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were SARS-CoV-2 viral load in maternal plasma or respiratory fluids and umbilical cord plasma, quantification of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in maternal and cord plasma, and presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the placenta. Results: Among 127 pregnant women enrolled, 64 with RT-PCR results positive for SARS-CoV-2 (mean [SD] age, 31.6 [5.6] years) and 63 with RT-PCR results negative for SARS-CoV-2 (mean [SD] age, 33.9 [5.4] years) provided samples for analysis. Of women with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 23 (36%) were asymptomatic, 22 (34%) had mild disease, 7 (11%) had moderate disease, 10 (16%) had severe disease, and 2 (3%) had critical disease. In viral load analyses among 107 women, there was no detectable viremia in maternal or cord blood and no evidence of vertical transmission. Among 77 neonates tested in whom SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were quantified in cord blood, 1 had detectable immunoglobuilin M to nucleocapsid. Among 88 placentas tested, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was not detected in any. In antibody analyses among 37 women with SARS-CoV-2 infection, anti-receptor binding domain immunoglobin G was detected in 24 women (65%) and anti-nucleocapsid was detected in 26 women (70%). Mother-to-neonate transfer of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was significantly lower than transfer of anti-influenza hemagglutinin A antibodies (mean [SD] cord-to-maternal ratio: anti-receptor binding domain immunoglobin G, 0.72 [0.57]; anti-nucleocapsid, 0.74 [0.44]; anti-influenza, 1.44 [0.80]; P < .001). Nonoverlapping placental expression of SARS-CoV-2 receptors angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 and transmembrane serine protease 2 was noted. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, there was no evidence of placental infection or definitive vertical transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Transplacental transfer of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was inefficient. Lack of viremia and reduced coexpression and colocalization of placental angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 and transmembrane serine protease 2 may serve as protective mechanisms against vertical transmission.

Reaching women with obesity to support weight loss before pregnancy: feasibility and qualitative assessment.

BACKGROUND: We sought to assess attitudes toward weight and barriers to recruitment of women with obesity for a potential preconception weight-loss/lifestyle modification intervention. METHODS: We performed a qualitative study involving women of reproductive age (18-45) with obesity (body mass index ⩾30 kg/m2) who were considering a pregnancy in the next 2 years. We evaluated four methods of recruitment. We used previously validated survey questions to evaluate risk perceptions. In a subset, we used semistructured interviews for topics that required more in-depth information: domains included attitudes toward weight-related issues, intentions, and barriers to engagement in a structured weight-loss program. We performed qualitative analyses of interview transcripts using immersion crystallization. RESULTS: We recruited the majority (80/82, 98%) of women using e-recruitment strategies. Eighty-one women filled out the survey and 39 completed an interview. Three-quarters of the women surveyed (60 of 81) reported attempts to lose weight in the past year and 77% (68/81) of survey respondents cited jobs and work schedules as a barrier to adopting healthy habits. More than 87% (34 of 39) of women interviewed reported willingness to participate in a structured weight-loss program prior to getting pregnant. Of these, 74% (25 of 34) stated they would consider delaying their attempts at a future pregnancy in order to participate in such a program. CONCLUSIONS: E-recruitment is a promising strategy for recruitment for preconception weight-loss and lifestyle modification program. Most women state a willingness to delay pregnancy attempts to participate in a weight-loss program.

Hospital bans on trial of labor after cesarean and antepartum transfer of care.

BACKGROUND: Hospital policies restricting access to trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC) are prevalent. Many women with a previous cesarean birth are affected by these bans, but there are limited data on the effect of these bans and whether women would consider changing delivery hospitals in the setting of a real or hypothetical TOLAC ban. METHODS: This was a survey of TOLAC-eligible women receiving prenatal care at four hospitals where TOLAC is available, and 1 non-TOLAC site. Participants were asked about their likelihood of switching hospitals to pursue TOLAC if it were unavailable. Women at the non-TOLAC site had their medical records reviewed to ascertain final location and approach to delivery. RESULTS: A total of 297 women were interviewed, 48 from the non-TOLAC site. 162 (54%) participants indicated they would transfer care if TOLAC were unavailable. Among women at the non-TOLAC site, 57% who indicated an intention to switch hospitals did so. In a multivariable logistic regression model, variables associated with transferring care included race/ethnicity other than Latina (aOR 25.20 [95% CI 2.23-284.26]), being unaware of the TOLAC ban (19.81 [1.99-196.64]), and perceiving that a close friend/relative thought they should undergo TOLAC (17.31 [1.70-176.06]). CONCLUSIONS: More than half of women with prior cesarean would consider transferring care if TOLAC became unavailable, and more than 1 of 3 of women at a non-TOLAC site transferred care. More research is needed on the impact of TOLAC bans and how to facilitate transfer for those who desire TOLAC.

Association of Medicaid Expansion With Coverage and Access to Care for Pregnant Women.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the association of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion with payment for delivery, early access to prenatal care, preterm birth, and birth weights considered small for gestational age (SGA). METHODS: A difference-in-difference design was used to assess changes in outcomes before and after Medicaid expansion in expansion states, using nonexpansion states as a control group. We used national birth certificate data from 2009 to 2017. Difference-in-difference linear probability models were used to assess the effects of the policy implementation, adjusting for demographics, month of birth, state, year, and county-level unemployment rates. Standard errors were clustered at the state level. Two prespecified subgroup analyses were performed of nulliparous women and women with no more than a high school diploma. RESULTS: The study sample included 8,701,889 women from 15 expansion states and 9,509,994 from 11 nonexpansion states. In the adjusted analysis, the percentage of Medicaid-covered deliveries increased by 2.3 absolute percentage points (95% CI 0.2-4.4, P=.04) in expansion states compared with nonexpansion states. There were no significant changes in the proportion of women who were uninsured, as there was a relative decrease in the percentage of deliveries covered by private insurance (-2.8 percentage points [95% CI -4.9 to -0.8, P=.01]). There were also no significant differences in the rate of women initiating prenatal care in the first trimester, preterm birth rates, or rates of low birth weight after the Medicaid expansion. Findings were similar in both subgroups. CONCLUSION: Medicaid expansion was associated with increased Medicaid coverage for childbirth in expansion states; similar gains in private coverage were seen in nonexpansion states. There were no associations with changes in early access to prenatal care, preterm birth, or SGA birth weights.

The association of patient preferences and attitudes with trial of labor after cesarean.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of patient preferences and attitudes with TOLAC. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective observational study of TOLAC-eligible women at 26-34 weeks gestation. Preferences (utilities) were elicited using the time trade-off and standard gamble metrics. Logistic regression was used to identify preference- and attitude-based factors associated with TOLAC. RESULTS: Of the 231 participants, most (n = 197, 85%) preferred vaginal delivery, but only 40% (n = 93) underwent TOLAC. Utilities for uterine rupture outcomes did not differ based on delivery approach. In multivariable analysis, strength of preference for vaginal delivery, value for the experience of labor, and the opinion of the person whom the participant thought of as most important to this decision were associated with TOLAC. CONCLUSIONS: Future decision support interventions incorporating individualized information regarding the likelihood of vaginal birth and empowering patients to express their preferences and engage their families in the decision-making process may improve decision quality and increase TOLAC rates.

Preconception insurance and initiation of prenatal care.

OBJECTIVE: The primary objective was to determine the association between preconception insurance and initiation of prenatal care. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective cohort uses data from the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (2009-2013). Self-reported preconception insurance status was the primary exposure. The primary outcome was first trimester initiation of prenatal care. Secondary outcomes included: preterm delivery, birth weight, and the presence of birth defects. Survey-weighted generalized linear models were used to calculate risk ratios and accounted for state-level clustering. RESULTS: Of the 181,675 included women from 32 states, 21.1% were uninsured prior to conception. 88% of insured women vs. 70% of uninsured women initiated care in the first trimester. Uninsured women were less likely to initiate care in the first trimester (adjusted relative risk (RR) 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.85-0.89), p < 0.001) compared to women with insurance in the adjusted analysis. Among the secondary outcomes, uninsured nulliparous women had a 20% higher risk of extremely (<28 weeks) preterm delivery than those with preconception insurance (adjusted RR 1.20 (1.03-1.39), p = 0.01). Uninsured women also had a slightly increased risk of having SGA infant compared to insured women (adjusted RR 1.04 (1.01-1.09), p = 0.02). There were no differences in the other secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Preconception insurance is associated with earlier initiation of prenatal care.

Preconception Coverage Before and After the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansions.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effects of the Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion provision that was largely implemented in 2014 on preconception insurance coverage among low-income women. METHODS: We used a quasiexperimental, difference-in-difference design to compare changes in preconception insurance coverage among low-income women living in expansion compared with nonexpansion states before and after the Medicaid expansions. Women with family incomes 138% the federal poverty level or less who participated in the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System from 2009 to 2015 from states that did or did not expand their Medicaid programs on January 1, 2014, were included. The exposure of interest was the state Medicaid expansion. The primary outcome was insurance status 1 month before conception. We conducted additional subgroup and sensitivity analyses to test the assumptions of the model and the robustness of the findings. RESULTS: The study sample included 30,495 women from eight states that expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act and 26,561 patients from seven states in that did not. The rate of preconception Medicaid coverage was 30.8% prepolicy and 35.6% postpolicy in nonexpansion states and 43.2% prepolicy and 56.8% postpolicy in expansion states. There was a significantly greater increase in Medicaid coverage in expansion states after the policy implementation (adjusted difference-in-difference estimate +8.6% points, 95% CI 1.1-16.0). Rates of preconception uninsurance were 44.2% prepolicy and 34.3% postpolicy in nonexpansion states and 37.4% prepolicy and 23.5% postpolicy in expansion states. There was no significant difference in the changes in uninsurance between the two groups in the postpolicy period (adjusted difference-in-difference estimate -4.1, 95% CI -11.1 to 2.9). Non-Medicaid insurance coverage was 25.3% prepolicy and 30.5% postpolicy in nonexpansion states and 19.4% prepolicy and 19.7% postpolicy in expansion states. Relative to nonexpansion states, there was a significant decrease in non-Medicaid coverage in the expansion states in the postpolicy period (adjusted difference-in-difference estimate -4.7, 95% CI -8.3 to -1.1). The results were robust to alternate model specifications and study period definitions. CONCLUSION: Medicaid expansion was associated with increased enrollment in Medicaid before pregnancy among low-income women; however, there were no changes in the rates of uninsurance. Additional years of postpolicy data are needed to fully assess the effects of the policy change.

The relative effects of patient and hospital factors on postpartum readmissions.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the relative effects of patient and hospital factors on a hospital's postpartum readmission rate. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective cohort study was conducted using State Inpatient Databases from California, Florida, and New York between 2004 and 2013. We compared patient and hospital characteristics among hospitals with low and high readmission rates using χ2 tests. Risk-adjusted 30-day readmission rates were calculated for patient, delivery, and hospital characteristics to understand factors affecting readmission using fixed and random effects models. RESULTS: Patients in hospitals with low readmission rates were more likely to be white, to have private insurance and higher incomes, and to have fewer comorbidities. The patient comorbidities with the highest risk-adjusted readmission rates included hypertension (range, 2.14-3.04%), obesity (1.78-2.94%), preterm labor/delivery (2.50-2.60%), and seizure disorder (1.78-3.35%). Delivery complications were associated with increased risk-adjusted readmission rates. Compared to patient characteristics, hospital characteristics did not have a profound impact on readmission risk. CONCLUSION: Obstetric readmissions were more attributable to patient and demographic characteristics than to hospital characteristics. Readmission metric-based incentives may ultimately penalize hospitals providing high-quality care due to patient characteristics specific to their catchment area.

Preferences regarding contemporary prenatal genetic tests among women desiring testing: implications for optimal testing strategies.

OBJECTIVES: To compare utilities for prenatal testing outcomes among women inclined to continue their pregnancy despite abnormal results versus those inclined to terminate and to analyze how differences affect optimal prenatal testing strategies. METHOD: Time tradeoff utilities for 23 outcomes were elicited from 281 women. We compared utilities based on termination inclination and applied them to a decision-analytic framework. RESULTS: Of participants, 46.6% indicated that they would 'definitely' or 'probably' continue their pregnancy despite results indicating an intellectual disability. These women assigned higher utilities to abnormal testing results and having a child with an intellectual disability than women who would probably or definitely terminate. Primary cell-free DNA screening had the most quality-adjusted life years for women inclined to continue their pregnancy but yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $1 685 449. Multiple marker screening with either cell-free DNA or diagnostic testing as follow-up had an ICER of $9037. Primary diagnostic testing resulted in the most quality-adjusted life years for women inclined to terminate, with an ICER of $111 776. CONCLUSION: Women seeking testing vary in prenatal testing outcome preferences and termination inclinations in the context of results indicating an intellectual disability. How they envision utilizing prenatal testing information impacts their optimal testing strategy. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Prenatal Testing in the Genomic Age: Clinical Outcomes, Quality of Life, and Costs.

OBJECTIVE: To use a decision-analytic model to assess a comprehensive set of outcomes of prenatal genetic testing strategies among women of varying ages. METHODS: We assessed outcomes of six testing strategies incorporating diagnostic testing with chromosomal microarray, multiple marker screening, cell-free DNA screening, and nuchal translucency screening alone, in combination, or in sequence. Clinical outcomes included prenatal detection or birth of a neonate with a significant chromosomal abnormality and diagnostic procedures performed. Other outcomes included maternal quality-adjusted life-years and costs. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of the findings. RESULTS: At all ages assessed, screening strategies starting with multiple marker screening offered the highest detection rate when all chromosomal abnormalities were considered. Incorporating cell-free DNA as an optional secondary screen decreased the number of diagnostic procedures, but also decreased the number of abnormalities diagnosed prenatally, resulting in a similar number of procedures per case diagnosed at age 30 years; the option of secondary cell-free DNA screening becomes more favorable at older ages. Multiple marker screening with optional follow-up diagnostic testing was the most effective (highest quality-adjusted life-years) and least expensive strategy at ages 20-38 years. At age 40 years or older, cell-free DNA screening was optimal with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $73,154 per quality-adjusted life-year. CONCLUSION: When considering all detectable chromosome problems as well as patient preferences and baseline risks, multiple marker screening with the option of diagnostic testing for screen-positive results is the optimal strategy for most women. At age 40 years and older, cell-free DNA as a primary screen becomes optimal and is cost-effective. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II.

Mode of delivery preferences in a diverse population of pregnant women.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to assess women's preferences for vaginal vs cesarean delivery in 4 contexts: prior cesarean delivery, twins, breech presentation, and absent indication for cesarean. STUDY DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional study of pregnant women at 24-40 weeks' gestation. After assessing stated preferences for vaginal or cesarean delivery, we used the standard gamble metric to measure the strength of these preferences and the time tradeoff metric to determine how women value the potential processes and outcomes associated with these 2 delivery approaches. RESULTS: Among the 240 participants, 90.8% had a stated preference for vaginal delivery. Across the 4 contexts, these women indicated that, on average, they would accept a 59-75% chance of an attempted vaginal birth ending in a cesarean delivery before choosing a planned cesarean delivery, indicating strong preferences for spontaneous, uncomplicated vaginal delivery. Variations in preferences for labor processes emerged. Although uncomplicated labor ending in vaginal birth was assigned mean utilities of 0.993 or higher (on a 0-1 scale, with higher scores indicating more preferred outcomes), the need for oxytocin, antibiotics, or operative vaginal delivery resulted in lower mean scores, comparable with those assigned to uncomplicated cesarean delivery. Substantially lower scores (ranging from 0.432 to 0.598) were obtained for scenarios ending in severe maternal or neonatal morbidity. CONCLUSION: Although most women expressed strong preferences for vaginal delivery, their preferences regarding interventions frequently used to achieve that goal varied. These data underscore the importance of educating patients about the process of labor and delivery to facilitate incorporation of informed patient preferences in shared decision making regarding delivery approach.

Cost-effectiveness of elective induction of labor at 41 weeks in nulliparous women.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the cost-effectiveness of elective induction of labor at 41 weeks in nulliparous women. STUDY DESIGN: A decision analytic model comparing induction of labor at 41 weeks vs expectant management with antenatal testing until 42 weeks in nulliparas was designed. Baseline assumptions were derived from the literature as well as from analysis of the National Birth Cohort dataset and included an intrauterine fetal demise rate of 0.12% in the 41st week and a cesarean rate of 27% in women induced at 41 weeks. One-way and multiway sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of the findings. RESULTS: Compared with expectant management, induction of labor is cost-effective with an incremental cost of $10,945 per quality-adjusted life year gained. Induction of labor at 41 weeks also resulted in a lower rate of adverse obstetric outcomes, including neonatal demise, shoulder dystocia, meconium aspiration syndrome, and severe perineal lacerations. CONCLUSION: Elective induction of labor at 41 weeks is cost-effective and improves outcomes.

When should women with placenta previa be delivered? A decision analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the optimal gestational age of delivery for women with placenta previa by accounting for both neonatal and maternal outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: A decision-analytic model was designed comparing total maternal and neonatal quality-adjusted life years for delivery of women with previa at gestational ages from 34 to 38 weeks. At each week, we allowed for four different delivery strategies: (1) immediate delivery, without amniocentesis or steroids; (2) delivery 48 hours after steroid administration (without amniocentesis); (3) amniocentesis with delivery if fetal lung maturity (FLM) positive or retesting in one week if FLM negative; (4) amniocentesis with delivery if FLM testing is positive or administration of steroids if FLM negative. RESULTS: Delivery at 36 weeks, 48 hours after steroids, for women with previa optimizes maternal and neonatal outcomes. In sensitivity analyses, these results were robust to a wide range of variation in input assumptions. If it is assumed that steroids offer no neonatal benefit at this gestational age, outright delivery at 36 weeks' gestation is the best strategy. CONCLUSION: Steroid administration at 35 weeks and 5 days followed by delivery at 36 weeks for women with placenta previa optimizes maternal and neonatal outcomes.

Cost-effectiveness of Down syndrome screening paradigms.

Methodologic and ethical concerns in the area of prenatal diagnosis include whether the effects of such testing on individuals other than patients are considered, what assumptions are made regarding termination of pregnancy following a diagnosis, whether the redundancy of screening and diagnostic methods is considered, and how the impact of positive or negative screening results on patient experience and anxiety can be quantified. Several studies have examined the cost-effectiveness of screening for Down syndrome (DS). Given the current test characteristics, screening for DS is cost-effective across a wide variety of clinical situations. In fact, contingent screening is potentially a dominant strategy (costs less and leads to better outcomes). Understanding the methodology and salient issues of cost-effectiveness analysis is critical for researchers, editors, and clinicians to accurately interpret results of the growing body of cost-effectiveness studies in prenatal diagnosis.