Economic evaluation of a preemptive treatment strategy for invasive fungal infection in neutropenic patients with hematological diseases.

We compared the expected medical costs of empirical and preemptive treatment strategies for invasive fungal infection in neutropenic patients with hematological diseases. Based on the results of two clinical trials with different backgrounds reported by Oshima et al. [J Antimicrob Chemother 60(2):350-355; Oshima study] and Cordonnier et al. [Clin Infect Dis 48(8):1042-1051; PREVERT study], we developed a decision tree model that represented the outcomes of empirical and preemptive treatment strategies, and estimated the expected medical costs of medications and examinations in the two strategies. We assumed that micafungin was started in the empirical group at 5 days after fever had developed, while voriconazole was started in the preemptive group only when certain criteria, such as positive test results of imaging studies and/or serum markers, were fulfilled. When we used an incidence of positive test results of 6.7 % based on the Oshima study, the expected medical costs of the empirical and preemptive groups were 288,198 and 150,280 yen, respectively. Even in the case of the PREVERT study, in which the incidence of positive test results was 32.9 %, the expected medical costs in the empirical and preemptive groups were 291,871 and 284,944 yen, respectively. A sensitivity analysis indicated that the expected medical costs in the preemptive group would exceed those in the empirical group when the incidence of positive test results in the former was over 34.4 %. These results suggest that a preemptive treatment strategy can be expected to reduce medical costs compared with empirical therapy in most clinical settings.

The role of HLA-matched unrelated transplantation in adult patients with Ph chromosome-negative ALL in first remission. A decision analysis.

The efficacy of unrelated transplantation for patients with ALL who lack an HLA-matched sibling remains unclear. We performed a decision analysis to determine the efficacy of myeloablative transplantation from a genetically HLA-A, -B, -DRB1 allele-matched unrelated donor for patients with Ph chromosome-negative ALL aged 21-54 years. The transition probabilities were estimated from the Japan Adult Leukemia Study Group studies (ALL93; n=80, ALL97; n=82), and the Japan Marrow Donor Program database (transplantation in first CR (CR1): n=177). The primary outcome measure was the 10-year survival probability with or without quality of life (QOL) adjustment. Subgroup analyses were performed according to risk stratification based on the WBC count and cytogenetics, and according to age stratification. In all patients, unrelated transplantation in CR1 was shown to be superior in analyses both with and without QOL adjustment (40.8 vs 28.4% and 43.9 vs 29.0%, respectively). A similar tendency was observed in all subgroups. The decision model was sensitive to the probability of leukemia-free survival following chemotherapy and the probability of survival after transplantation in standard-risk and higher-aged patients. Unrelated transplantation in CR1 improves the long-term survival probability in patients who lack an HLA-matched sibling. However, recent improvements in treatment strategies may change this result.

A decision analysis of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in adult patients with Philadelphia chromosome-negative acute lymphoblastic leukemia in first remission who have an HLA-matched sibling donor.

Clinical studies using genetic randomization cannot accurately answer whether adult patients with Philadelphia chromosome-negative acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) who have a human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-matched sibling should undergo allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) or chemotherapy in first remission, as, in these studies, patients without a sibling donor undergo alternative donor transplantation or chemotherapy alone after a relapse. Therefore, we performed a decision analysis to identify the optimal strategy in this setting. Transition probabilities and utilities were estimated from prospective studies of the Japan Adult Leukemia Study Group, the database of the Japan Society for Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation and the literature. The primary outcome measure was the 10-year survival probability with or without quality of life (QOL) adjustments. Subgroup analyses were performed according to risk stratification on the basis of white blood cell count and cytogenetics, and according to age stratification. In analyses without QOL adjustments, allogeneic HSCT in first remission was superior in the whole population (48.3 vs 32.6%) and in all subgroups. With QOL adjustments, a similar tendency was conserved (44.9 vs 31.7% in the whole population). To improve the probability of long-term survival, allogeneic HSCT in first remission is recommended for patients who have an HLA-matched sibling.