Sexual and reproductive health needs and practices of female sex workers in Papua New Guinea: findings from a biobehavioral survey Kauntim mi tu ('Count me too').

BACKGROUND: Little research has explored the sexual and reproductive health (SRH) experience of female sex workers (FSW), including girls aged < 18 years who are commercially sexually exploited (CSE), in Papua New Guinea (PNG). This paper describes the SRH history of FSW and CSE girls and factors associated with their use of moderately or highly effective contraceptive methods in three settings in PNG. METHODS: From 2016 to 2017, respondent-driven sampling (RDS) surveys were conducted among FSW and CSE girls in Port Moresby, Lae, and Mt. Hagen. FSW and CSE girls who were born female, aged ≥12 years, sold or exchanged vaginal sex in the past 6 months, spoke English or Tok Pisin, and had a valid RDS study coupon were eligible to participate. Interviews were conducted face-to-face and participants were offered rapid routine HIV and syphilis testing. Survey logistic regression procedures were used to identify factors associated with the use of moderately or highly effective contraceptive methods. Weighted data analysis was conducted. RESULTS: A total of 2901 FSW and CSE girls (Port Moresby, 673; Lae, 709; and Mt. Hagen, 709) were enrolled. The proportion using moderately or highly effective contraceptive methods was 37.7% in Port Moresby, 30.9% in Lae, and 26.5% in Mt. Hagen. After adjusting for covariates, factors significantly associated with the use of moderately or highly effective contraceptive methods in Port Moresby were being age 20-24, being married, being divorced or separated, having one or more dependent children, being away from home for more than 1 month in the last 6 months, and having tested HIV negative. No factors were significantly associated in Lae or Mt. Hagen. ANC attendance amongst FSW and CSE girls who gave birth in last 3 years was highest in Port Moresby at 91.2%. HIV testing was inconsistently and inadequately offered at ANC across the three cities. CONCLUSIONS: Kauntim mi tu provides much-needed insight into the SRH experiences of FSW and CSE girls in PNG, where their use of moderately or highly effective contraceptive methods is low. We hope to shed light on the complicated reality they face due to illegality of sex work and multitude of complex healthcare experiences.

Confidential, accessible point-of-care sexual health services to support the participation of key populations in biobehavioural surveys: Lessons for Papua New Guinea and other settings where reach of key populations is limited.

To achieve the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets at a national level, many countries must accelerate service coverage among key populations. To do this, key population programs have adopted methods similar to those used in respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to expand reach. A deeper understanding of factors from RDS surveys that enhance health service engagement can improve key population programs. To understand the in-depth lives of key populations, acceptance of expanded point-of-care biological testing and determine drivers of participation in RDS surveys, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 111 key population participants (12-65 years) were purposefully selected from six biobehavioral surveys (BBS) in three cities in Papua New Guinea. Key populations were female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and transgender women. Four reasons motivated individuals to participate in the BBS: peer referrals; private, confidential, and stigma-free study facilities; "one-stop shop" services that provided multiple tests and with same-day results, sexually transmitted infection treatment, and referrals; and the desire to know ones' health status. Biobehavioral surveys, and programs offering key population services can incorporate the approach we used to facilitate key population engagement in the HIV cascade.

A cluster-randomised controlled trial comparing school and community-based deworming for soil transmitted helminth control in school-age children: the CoDe-STH trial protocol.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines and targets for soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control focus on school-based deworming for school-age children, given the high risk of associated morbidity in this age group. However, expanding deworming to all age groups may achieve improved STH control among both the community in general and school-age children, by reducing their risk of reinfection. This trial aims to compare school-based targeted deworming with community-wide mass deworming in terms of impact on STH infections among school-age children. METHODS: The CoDe-STH (Community Deworming against STH) trial is a cluster-randomised controlled trial (RCT) in 64 primary schools in Dak Lak province, Vietnam. The control arm will receive one round of school-based targeted deworming with albendazole, while in the intervention arm, community-wide mass deworming with albendazole will be implemented alongside school-based deworming. Prevalence of STH infections will be measured in school-age children at baseline and 12 months following deworming. The primary outcome is hookworm prevalence in school-age children at 12 months, by quantitative PCR. Analysis will be intention-to-treat, with outcomes compared between study arms using generalised linear and non-linear mixed models. Additionally, cost-effectiveness of mass and targeted deworming will be calculated and compared, and focus group discussions and interviews will be used to assess acceptability and feasibility of deworming approaches. Individual based stochastic models will be used to predict the impact of mass and targeted deworming strategies beyond the RCT timeframe to assess the likelihood of parasite population 'bounce-back' if deworming is ceased due to low STH prevalence. DISCUSSION: The first large-scale trial comparing mass and targeted deworming for STH control in South East Asia will provide key information for policy makers regarding the optimal design of STH control programs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12619000309189 .

HIV incidence in Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations in Australia: a population-level observational study.

BACKGROUND: Australia has set a national target of ending HIV by 2020, achieving this will require the inclusion of priority populations (eg, Indigenous Australians) in strategies to reach elimination. To assist in evaluating the target of elimination, we analysed HIV notification data for Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. METHODS: Using the National HIV Registry at The Kirby Institute at UNSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia, we collated and analysed annual HIV notification data for 1996-2015. Patients who were not born in Australia were excluded. We calculated the rates of HIV diagnoses with annual trends in notification rates for Indigenous versus non-Indigenous Australians by demographic characteristics, exposure categories, and stage of HIV at diagnosis. For missing data, assumptions were made and verified through sensitivity analyses. Annual rate ratio (RR) and 4 year summary rate ratio (SRR) trends were calculated to determine patterns of HIV diagnosis in the two populations. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 1996, and Dec 31, 2015, 11 492 people born in Australia were reported with a diagnosis of HIV, of whom 461 (4%) were recorded as Indigenous Australians and we classified the remaining 11 031 (96%) as non-Indigenous Australians. For exposure to HIV, among Indigenous Australians a higher proportion of diagnoses occurred among women, and through injecting drug use and heterosexual sex than among non-Indigenous Australians (p<0·0001). Among Indigenous Australians, we found a significantly higher SRR of HIV diagnoses among men in the period 2012-15 than in previous periods (SRR 1·53, 95% CI 1·28-1·83; p<0·0001), and significantly higher diagnosis among Indigenous women (4·92, 4·02-6·02; p<0·0001) for the entire study period than among non-Indigenous women. Concurrently, a decrease in HIV diagnoses of 1% per annum (RR 0·99, 95% CI 0·98-0·99; p<0·0001) across the study period was seen among non-Indigenous people. Indigenous Australians were more likely to be diagnosed at an advanced stage of HIV infection than non-Indigenous Australians (20·8% vs 15·1%; p=0·0088). INTERPRETATION: Greater efforts should be made to include Indigenous people in prevention strategies, particularly newer biomedical interventions, such as scale up of pre-exposure prophylaxis and treatment as prevention initiatives in Australia. More involvement of Indigenous Australians in these approaches is also required to prevent widening of the gap in HIV diagnosis rates between non-Indigenous and Indigenous Australians. FUNDING: None.

Low education levels are associated with early age of sexual debut, drug use and risky sexual behaviours among young Indigenous Australians.

Background Earlier age at sexual debut is associated with drug and alcohol use, risky sexual behaviours and sexually transmissible infections (STI). METHODS: In the present study, 2320 young Indigenous Australians were surveyed. RESULTS: Most study participants had sex for the first time when they were 14 years or younger (79% and 67% for males and females respectively). More than 80% of participants were categorised as being in the high-risk category for the combined sexual risk factors (i.e. not using condoms, drunk or high at last sexual act, or three or more sexual partners in the past year). There was a linear decreasing trend between the proportion of males and females who had less than high school education and age at first sex (Ptrend<0.001). Compared with the highest quintile of age at first sexual debut (≥18 years), those in the bottom quintile (<15 years) were less likely to have completed high school (63% vs 32% respectively for males; 68% vs 26% respectively for females; Ptrend<0.001 for both). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of the present study suggest that sex education and STI prevention should start early when targeting Indigenous young people, with age-appropriate messages. Sex education should be comprehensive and address individual risk behaviours, sexual agency and societal vulnerability to not only delay sexual debut, but also to emphasise the importance of STI prevention through condom use, which clearly already works to a certain extent with this group.

Relationship between Community Drug Administration Strategy and Changes in Trachoma Prevalence, 2007 to 2013.

BACKGROUND: Australia is the only high income country with persisting endemic trachoma. A national control program involving mass drug administration with oral azithromycin, in place since 2006, has some characteristics which differ from programs in low income settings, particularly in regard to the use of a wider range of treatment strategies, and more regular assessments of community prevalence. We aimed to examine the association between treatment strategies and trachoma prevalence. METHODS: Through the national surveillance program, annual data from 2007-2013 were collected on trachoma prevalence and treatment with oral azithromycin in children aged 5-9 years from three Australian regions with endemic trachoma. Communities were classified for each year according to one of four trachoma treatment strategies implemented (no treatment, active cases only, household and community-wide). We estimated the change in trachoma prevalence between sequential pairs of years and across multiple years according to treatment strategy using random-effects meta-analyses. FINDINGS: Over the study period, 182 unique remote Aboriginal communities had 881 annual records of both trachoma prevalence and treatment. From the analysis of pairs of years, the greatest annual fall in trachoma prevalence was in communities implementing community-wide strategies, with yearly absolute reductions ranging from -8% (95%CI -17% to 1%) to -31% (-26% to -37%); these communities also had the highest baseline trachoma prevalence (15.4%-43.9%). Restricting analyses to communities with moderate trachoma prevalence (5-19%) at initial measurement, and comparing community trachoma prevalence from the first to the last year of available data for the community, both community-wide and more targeted treatment strategies were associated with similar absolute reductions (-11% [-8% to -13%] and -7% [-5% to -10%] respectively). Results were similar stratified by region. INTERPRETATION: Consistent with previous research, community-wide administration of azithromycin reduces trachoma prevalence. Our observation that less intensive treatment with a 'household' strategy in moderate prevalence communities (5-<20%) is associated with similar reductions in prevalence over time, will require confirmation in other settings if it is to be used as a basis for changes in control strategies.

How are health research priorities set in low and middle income countries? A systematic review of published reports.

BACKGROUND: Priority setting is increasingly recognised as essential for directing finite resources to support research that maximizes public health benefits and drives health equity. Priority setting processes have been undertaken in a number of low- and middle-income country (LMIC) settings, using a variety of methods. We undertook a critical review of reports of these processes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched electronic databases and online for peer reviewed and non-peer reviewed literature. We found 91 initiatives that met inclusion criteria. The majority took place at the global level (46%). For regional or national initiatives, most focused on Sub Saharan Africa (49%), followed by East Asia and Pacific (20%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (18%). A quarter of initiatives aimed to cover all areas of health research, with a further 20% covering communicable diseases. The most frequently used process was a conference or workshop to determine priorities (24%), followed by the Child Health and Nutrition Initiative (CHNRI) method (18%). The majority were initiated by an international organization or collaboration (46%). Researchers and government were the most frequently represented stakeholders. There was limited evidence of any implementation or follow-up strategies. Challenges in priority setting included engagement with stakeholders, data availability, and capacity constraints. CONCLUSIONS: Health research priority setting (HRPS) has been undertaken in a variety of LMIC settings. While not consistently used, the application of established methods provides a means of identifying health research priorities in a repeatable and transparent manner. In the absence of published information on implementation or evaluation, it is not possible to assess what the impact and effectiveness of health research priority setting may have been.

Assessment of herd immunity and cross-protection after a human papillomavirus vaccination programme in Australia: a repeat cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: After the introduction of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme in Australia in April, 2007, we measured the prevalence of vaccine-targeted and closely related HPV types with the aim of assessing direct protection, cross-protection, and herd immunity. METHODS: In this repeat cross-sectional study, we recruited women aged 18-24 years who attended Pap screening between October, 2005, and July, 2007, in three major metropolitan areas of Australia to form our prevaccine-implementation sample. For our postvaccine-implementation sample, we recruited women aged 18-24 years who attended Pap screening in the same three metropolitan areas from August, 2010, to November, 2012. We compared the crude prevalence of HPV genotypes in cervical specimens between the prevaccine and the postvaccine implementation groups, with vaccination status validated against the National HPV Vaccination Program Register. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios using log linear regression. We estimated vaccine effectiveness both for vaccine-targeted HPV types (16, 18, 6, and 11) and non-vaccine but related HPV types (31, 33, and 45). FINDINGS: 202 women were recruited into the prevaccine-implementation group, and 1058 were recruited into the postvaccine-implementation group. Crude prevalence of vaccine-targeted HPV genotypes was significantly lower in the postvaccine-implementation sample than in the prevaccine-implementation sample (58 [29%] of 202 vs 69 [7%] of 1058; p<0·0001). Compared with the prevaccine-implementation sample, adjusted prevalence ratios for vaccine-targeted HPV genotypes were 0·07 (95% CI 0·04-0·14; p<0·0001) in fully vaccinated women and 0·65 (0·43-0·96; p=0·03) in unvaccinated women, which suggests herd immunity. No significant declines were noted for non-vaccine-targeted HPV genotypes. However, within the postvaccine-implementation sample, adjusted vaccine effectiveness against vaccine-targeted HPV types for fully vaccinated women compared with unvaccinated women was 86% (95% CI 71-93), and was 58% (26-76) against non-vaccine-targeted but related genotypes (HPV 31, 33, and 45). INTERPRETATION: 6 years after the initiation of the Australian HPV vaccination programme, we have detected a substantial fall in vaccine-targeted HPV genotypes in vaccinated women; a lower prevalence of vaccine-targeted types in unvaccinated women, suggesting herd immunity; and a possible indication of cross-protection against HPV types related to the vaccine-targeted types in vaccinated women. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and Cancer Council Victoria.

Rationale and design of REACT: a randomised controlled trial assessing the effectiveness of home-collection to increase chlamydia retesting and detect repeat positive tests.

BACKGROUND: Repeat infection with Chlamydia trachomatis is common and increases the risk of sequelae in women and HIV seroconversion in men who have sex with men (MSM). Despite guidelines recommending chlamydia retesting three months after treatment, retesting rates are low. We are conducting the first randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of home collection combined with short message service (SMS) reminders on chlamydia retesting and reinfection rates in three risk groups. METHODS/DESIGN: The REACT (retest after Chlamydia trachomatis) trial involves 600 patients diagnosed with chlamydia: 200 MSM, 200 women and 200 heterosexual men recruited from two Australian sexual health clinics where SMS reminders for retesting are routine practice. Participants will be randomised to the home group (3-month SMS reminder and home-collection) or the clinic group (3-month SMS reminder to return to the clinic). Participants in the home group will be given the choice of attending the clinic if they prefer. The mailed home-collection kit includes a self-collected vaginal swab (women), UriSWAB (Copan) for urine collection (heterosexual men), and UriSWAB plus rectal swab (MSM). The primary outcome is the retest rate at 1-4 months after a chlamydia diagnosis, and the secondary outcomes are: the repeat positive test rate; the reinfection rate; the acceptability of home testing with SMS reminders; and the cost effectiveness of home testing. Sexual behaviour data collected via an online survey at 4-5 months, and genotyping of repeat infections, will be used to discriminate reinfections from treatment failures. The trial will be conducted over two years. An intention to treat analysis will be conducted. DISCUSSION: This study will provide evidence about the effectiveness of home-collection combined with SMS reminders on chlamydia retesting, repeat infection and reinfection rates in three risk groups. The trial will determine client acceptability and cost effectiveness of this strategy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12611000968976.

A randomised trial of point-of-care tests for chlamydia and gonorrhoea infections in remote Aboriginal communities: Test, Treat ANd GO- the "TTANGO" trial protocol.

BACKGROUND: High prevalence rates of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) and Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) have been reported in Aboriginal people in remote and regional areas of Australia for well over two decades, and repeat positivity rates are high. To interrupt disease transmission and reduce the risk of complications, early diagnosis and treatment is important. However in many remote and regional areas there are long delays between testing for these curable sexually transmissible infections and providing treatment, due to both physical distance from laboratories and difficulties when recalling patients for subsequent management once results are available. Point-of-care (POC) tests have the potential to provide more timely diagnosis, to increase treatment and contact tracing, and in turn reduce CT and NG infection rates. METHODS/DESIGN: TTANGO (Test, Treat, ANd GO) is a cross-over cluster randomised controlled trial in 12 regional or remote Australian health services, which predominantly provide clinical services to Aboriginal people. The overall aim of TTANGO is to measure the clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and cultural and operational acceptability of molecular POC testing for CT and NG infection. The primary outcome is repeat positivity at three months after treatment of an initial CT or NG infection. Participating health services will undertake the clinical management of CT and NG under two different modalities for one year each. In the first year, six health services will be randomly assigned to manage these infections under current diagnostic guidelines. The other six will supplement current diagnostic guidelines with POC testing, whereby diagnosis is made and subsequent treatment for those with positive POC tests is offered at the initial consultation. In the second year, the health services will cross over to the opposite management modality. TTANGO will be conducted over four years; 1.5 years of trial initiation and community consultation, 2 years of trial conditions and evaluation, and 6 months of data analysis and feedback. DISCUSSION: TTANGO is the first cluster randomised trial of POC testing for CT and NG internationally. The results of this trial will provide crucial information to guide sexual health clinical practice in remote Aboriginal communities and other high prevalence settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12613000808741.

Ethics of ARV based prevention: treatment-as-prevention and PrEP.

Published data show that new HIV prevention strategies including treatment-as-prevention and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) using oral antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) are highly, but not completely, effective if regimens are taken as directed. Consequently, their implementation may challenge norms around HIV prevention. Specific concerns include the potential for ARV-based prevention to reframe responsibility, erode beneficial sexual norms and waste resources. This paper explores what rights claims uninfected people can make for access to ARVs for prevention, and whether moral claims justify the provision of ARV therapy to those who do not yet clinically require treatment as a way of reducing HIV transmission risk. An ethical analysis was conducted of the two strategies, PrEP and treatment-as-prevention, using a public health stewardship model developed by the Nuffield Bioethics Council to consider and compare the application of PrEP and treatment-as-prevention strategies. We found that treating the person with HIV rather than the uninfected person offers advantages in settings where there are limited opportunities to access care. A treatment-as-prevention strategy that places all the emphasis upon the positive person's adherence however carries a disproportionate burden of responsibility. PrEP remains an important option for receptive partners who face increased biological vulnerability. We conclude that the use of ARV for prevention is ethically justified, despite imperfect global to drugs for those in clinical need. The determination of which ARV-based HIV prevention strategy is ethically preferable is complex and must take into account both public health and interpersonal considerations.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of needle-syringe programs in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of needle-syringe programs (NSPs) with respect to HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections among Australian injecting drug users (IDUs). DESIGN/METHODS: A health economic analysis was conducted incorporating a mathematical model of HIV and HCV transmission among IDUs. An empirical relationship between syringe availability and receptive syringe sharing (RSS) was assessed. We compared the epidemiological outcomes and costs of NSP coverage (status quo RSS of 15-17%) with scenarios that had no NSPs (RSS of 25-50%). Outcomes included numbers of HIV and HCV infections averted, lifetime health sector costs, and cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Discounting was applied at 3% (sensitivity: 0%, 5%) per annum. RESULTS: We estimated that NSPs reduced incidence of HIV by 34-70% (192-873 cases) and HCV by 15-43% (19 000-77 000 cases) during 2000-2010, leading to 20 000-66 000 QALYs gained. Economic analysis showed that NSP coverage saved A$70-220 million in healthcare costs during 2000-2010 and will save an additional A$340-950 million in future healthcare costs. With NSPs costing A$245 million, the programs are very cost-effective at A$416-8750 per QALY gained. Financial investment in NSPs over 2000-2010 is estimated to be entirely recovered in healthcare cost savings by 2032 with a total future return on investment of $1.3-5.5 for every $1 invested. CONCLUSION: Australia's early introduction and high coverage of NSPs has significantly reduced the prevalence of HIV and HCV among IDUs. NSPs are a cost-effective public health strategy and will result in substantial net cost savings in the future.

Effect of pegylated interferon-α-2a treatment on mental health during recent hepatitis C virus infection.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN) treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has neuropsychiatric side effects. Data on the effect of HCV treatment on mental health among injecting drug users (IDUs) are limited. We assessed mental health during treatment of recently acquired HCV, within a predominantly IDU population. METHODS: Participants with HCV received PEG-IFN-α-2a (180 µg/week) for 24 weeks; HCV/HIV received PEG-IFN with ribavirin. Depression was assessed using the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI). Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with depression at enrolment and during treatment. Also, the effect of depression prior to and during treatment on sustained virological response (SVR) was assessed. RESULTS: Of 163 participants, 111 received treatment (HCV, n = 74; HCV/HIV, n = 37), with 76% ever reporting IDU. At enrolment, 16% had depression (n = 25). In adjusted analysis, depression at enrolment occurred less often in participants full-/part-time employed (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.23; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.06, 0.82, P = 0.023) and more often in recent IDUs (AOR 3.04; 95% CI: 1.19, 7.72, P = 0.019). During treatment, 35% (n = 31) developed new-onset depression. In adjusted analysis, poorer social functioning (higher score) was associated with new-onset depression (score ≤ 9 vs score ≥ 17; OR 5.69; 95% CI: 1.61, 20.14, P = 0.007). SVR was similar among participants with and without depression at enrolment (60% vs 61%, P = 0.951) and in those with and without new-onset depression (74% vs 63%, P = 0.293). CONCLUSIONS: Although depression at enrolment and during treatment was common among participants with recent HCV, neither influenced SVR. Participants with poor social functioning may be most at risk of developing depression during HCV therapy.

The decriminalization of prostitution is associated with better coverage of health promotion programs for sex workers.

OBJECTIVE: In order to assess whether the law has an impact on the delivery of health promotion services to sex workers, we compared health promotion programs in three Australian cities with different prostitution laws. The cities were Melbourne (brothels legalized if licensed, unlicensed brothels criminalized), Perth (criminalization of all forms of sex work) and Sydney (sex work largely decriminalized, without licensing). METHODS: We interviewed key informants and gave questionnaires to representative samples of female sex workers in urban brothels. RESULTS: Despite the different laws, each city had a thriving and diverse sex industry and a government-funded sex worker health promotion program with shopfront, phone, online and outreach facilities. The Sydney program was the only one run by a community-based organisation and the only program employing multi-lingual staff with evening outreach to all brothels. The Melbourne program did not service the unlicensed sector, while the Perth program accessed the minority of brothels by invitation only. More Sydney workers reported a sexual health centre as a source of safer sex training and information (Sydney 52% v Melbourne 33% and Perth 35%; p<0.001). Sex workers in Melbourne's licensed brothels were the most likely to have access to free condoms (Melbourne 88%, Sydney 39%, Perth 12%; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The legal context appeared to affect the conduct of health promotion programs targeting the sex industry. Brothel licensing and police-controlled illegal brothels can result in the unlicensed sector being isolated from peer-education and support.

How low can you go: the impact of a modestly effective HIV vaccine compared with male circumcision.

OBJECTIVE: The first evidence of modest effectiveness of an HIV vaccine was demonstrated by the RV144 trial in Thailand in 2009. Although promising, this vaccine has largely been dismissed because it only had 30% efficacy. In contrast, male circumcision is widely supported and has approximately twice the efficacy, but can only be targeted to half of the population. We question the vaccine efficacy required before being considered in prevention strategies. DESIGN: We forecast the expected population-level impact of implementing circumcision among males compared with a 30% effective vaccine among males and females. METHODS: A mathematical transmission model was developed to describe the HIV epidemics in two different settings, Thailand and South Africa, and to forecast the expected impact of circumcision or vaccine interventions. RESULTS: Interventions using a vaccine with 30% efficacy would likely have a greater population benefit than male circumcision because a proportion of males are already circumcised, thus diminishing the potential target population. Both males and females will receive considerable benefit from vaccination (for example, 33% of infections averted for males and 36% for females in South Africa), whereas females will receive only moderate benefit from male circumcision (for example, 47% of infections averted for males and 19% for females in South Africa). In both settings, it would likely take a number of years before the interventions could have a noticeable impact on HIV epidemics. CONCLUSION: A moderately effective vaccine, such as the one demonstrated in the RV144 trial, may have a potential role in public health programs.

What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. DESIGN: To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. METHODS: Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. RESULTS: In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). CONCLUSIONS: The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

The epidemiology of hepatitis C in Australia: notifications, treatment uptake and liver transplantations, 1997-2006.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Regular monitoring of hepatitis C (HCV)-related surveillance data is essential to inform and evaluate strategies to reduce the expanding HCV burden. The aim of this study was to examine trends in the epidemiology and treatment of HCV in Australia. METHODS: We reviewed data about HCV notifications, treatment of HCV infection through the Highly Specialised Drugs (s100) Program, and liver transplants (Australia and New Zealand Liver Transplant Registry) for the period 1997-2006. RESULTS: HCV case notification rates declined by almost 50% between 1999 and 2006, with the greatest reductions between 2001 and 2002 and amongst young adults. For newly acquired HCV cases, 89% were Australian-born and 90% reported injecting drug use as a risk factor for infection. Overall, 30% of liver transplant recipients had HCV-related cirrhosis, but the number and proportion of HCV diagnoses increased between 1997 and 2006. HCV treatment also increased over the review period. However, only 1.4% of the 202,400 people estimated to be living with chronic HCV at the end of 2006 received treatment that year. CONCLUSION: The decline in HCV notifications is consistent with a decline in HCV incidence in Australia. However, the burden of advanced HCV disease continues to expand. To reduce this burden, treatment uptake needs to increase. Consistent and sensitive surveillance mechanisms are required to detect newly acquired cases together with an expansion of surveillance for chronic HCV infections.