Burden of disease attributable to unsafe drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene in domestic settings: a global analysis for selected adverse health outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Assessments of disease burden are important to inform national, regional, and global strategies and to guide investment. We aimed to estimate the drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH)-attributable burden of disease for diarrhoea, acute respiratory infections, undernutrition, and soil-transmitted helminthiasis, using the WASH service levels used to monitor the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as counterfactual minimum risk-exposure levels. METHODS: We assessed the WASH-attributable disease burden of the four health outcomes overall and disaggregated by region, age, and sex for the year 2019. We calculated WASH-attributable fractions of diarrhoea and acute respiratory infections by country using modelled WASH exposures and exposure-response relationships from two updated meta-analyses. We used the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene public database to estimate population exposure to different WASH service levels. WASH-attributable undernutrition was estimated by combining the population attributable fractions (PAF) of diarrhoea caused by unsafe WASH and the PAF of undernutrition caused by diarrhoea. Soil-transmitted helminthiasis was fully attributed to unsafe WASH. FINDINGS: We estimate that 1·4 (95% CI 1·3-1·5) million deaths and 74 (68-80) million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) could have been prevented by safe WASH in 2019 across the four designated outcomes, representing 2·5% of global deaths and 2·9% of global DALYs from all causes. The proportion of diarrhoea that is attributable to unsafe WASH is 0·69 (0·65-0·72), 0·14 (0·13-0·17) for acute respiratory infections, and 0·10 (0·09-0·10) for undernutrition, and we assume that the entire disease burden from soil-transmitted helminthiasis was attributable to unsafe WASH. INTERPRETATION: WASH-attributable burden of disease estimates based on the levels of service established under the SDG framework show that progress towards the internationally agreed goal of safely managed WASH services for all would yield major public-health returns. FUNDING: WHO and Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

Development of a Choice-framework for Covid vaccines in India using a multi-criteria decision analysis approach.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines were crucial in controlling the Covid-19 pandemic. As more vaccines receive regulatory approval, stakeholders will be faced with several options and must make an appropriate choice for themselves. We proposed a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework to guide decision-makers in comparing vaccines for the Indian context. METHODS: We adhered to the ISPOR guidance for the MCDA process. Seven vaccine options were compared under ten criteria. Through three virtual workshops, we obtained opinions and weights from citizens, private-sector hospitals, and public health organisations. Available evidence was rescaled and incorporated into the performance matrix. The final score for each vaccine was calculated for the different groups. We performed different sensitivity analyses to assess the consistency of the rank list. RESULTS: The cost, efficacy and operational score of the vaccines had the highest weights among the stakeholders. From the six scenario groups, Janssen had the highest score in four. This was driven by the advantage of having a single dose of vaccination. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis for the overall group, Covaxin, Janssen, and Sputnik were the first three options. The participants expressed that availability, WHO approvals and safety, among others, would be crucial when considering vaccines. CONCLUSIONS: The MCDA process has not been capitalised on in healthcare decision-making in India and LMICs. Considering the available data and stakeholder preference at the time of the study, Covaxin, Janssen, and Sputnik were preferred options. The choice framework with the dynamic performance matrix is a valuable tool that could be adapted to different population groups and extended based on increasing vaccine options and emerging evidence. *ISPOR - The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research.

Burden of Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fever in India.

BACKGROUND: In 2017, more than half the cases of typhoid fever worldwide were projected to have occurred in India. In the absence of contemporary population-based data, it is unclear whether declining trends of hospitalization for typhoid in India reflect increased antibiotic treatment or a true reduction in infection. METHODS: From 2017 through 2020, we conducted weekly surveillance for acute febrile illness and measured the incidence of typhoid fever (as confirmed on blood culture) in a prospective cohort of children between the ages of 6 months and 14 years at three urban sites and one rural site in India. At an additional urban site and five rural sites, we combined blood-culture testing of hospitalized patients who had a fever with survey data regarding health care use to estimate incidence in the community. RESULTS: A total of 24,062 children who were enrolled in four cohorts contributed 46,959 child-years of observation. Among these children, 299 culture-confirmed typhoid cases were recorded, with an incidence per 100,000 child-years of 576 to 1173 cases in urban sites and 35 in rural Pune. The estimated incidence of typhoid fever from hospital surveillance ranged from 12 to 1622 cases per 100,000 child-years among children between the ages of 6 months and 14 years and from 108 to 970 cases per 100,000 person-years among those who were 15 years of age or older. Salmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi was isolated from 33 children, for an overall incidence of 68 cases per 100,000 child-years after adjustment for age. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of typhoid fever in urban India remains high, with generally lower estimates of incidence in most rural areas. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; NSSEFI Clinical Trials Registry of India number, CTRI/2017/09/009719; ISRCTN registry number, ISRCTN72938224.).

A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat.

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

Could a Shigella vaccine impact long-term health outcomes?: Summary report of an expert meeting to inform a Shigella vaccine public health value proposition, March 24 and 29, 2021.

Shigellosis is a leading cause of diarrhea and dysentery in young children from low to middle-income countries and adults experiencing traveler's diarrhea worldwide. In addition to acute illness, infection by Shigella bacteria is associated with stunted growth among children, which has been linked to detrimental long-term health, developmental, and economic outcomes. On March 24 and 29, 2021, PATH convened an expert panel to discuss the potential impact of Shigella vaccines on these long-term outcomes. Based on current empirical evidence, this discussion focused on whether Shigella vaccines could potentially alleviate the long-term burden associated with Shigella infections. Also, the experts provided recommendations about how to best model the burden, health and vaccine impact, and economic consequences of Shigella infections. This international multidisciplinary panel included 13 scientists, physicians, and economists from multiple relevant specialties. According to the panel, while the relationship between Shigella infections and childhood growth deficits is complex, this relationship likely exists. Vaccine probe studies are the crucial next step to determine whether vaccination could ameliorate Shigella infection-related long-term impacts. Infants should be vaccinated during their first year of life to maximize their protection from severe acute health outcomes and ideally reduce stunting risk and subsequent negative long-term developmental and health impacts. With vaccine schedule crowding, targeted or combination vaccination approaches would likely increase vaccine uptake in high-burden areas. Shigella impact and economic assessment models should include a wider range of linear growth outcomes. Also, these models should produce a spectrum of results-ones addressing immediate benefits for usual health care decision-makers and others that include broader health impacts, providing a more comprehensive picture of vaccination benefits. While many of the underlying mechanisms of this relationship need better characterization, the remaining gaps can be best addressed by collecting data post-vaccine introduction or through large trials.

Creating equity in health research to drive more and better evidence.

Health research is rapidly changing with evidence being gathered through new agile methods. This evolution is critical but must be globally equitable so the poorest nations do not lose out. We must harness this change to better tackle the daily burden of diseases that affect the most impoverished populations and bring research capabilities to every corner of the world so that rapid and fair responses to new pathogen are possible; anywhere they appear. We must seize this opportunity to make research easier, better and more equitable. Currently too many nations are unable to generate the evidence or translate it to directly change health outcomes in their own communities. It is essential to act and harness this emerging change in how research data can be generated and shared, so that all nations sustainably gain from this development. There are positive examples to draw on from COVID-19, but we now need to act. Here we present an initiative to develop a new framework that can guide researchers in the design and execution of their studies. This highly agile system will work by adapting to risk and complexity in any given study, whilst generating quality, safe and ethical data.

Quantitative assessment of exposure to fecal contamination in urban environment across nine cities in low-income and lower-middle-income countries and a city in the United States.

BACKGROUND: During 2014 to 2019, the SaniPath Exposure Assessment Tool, a standardized set of methods to evaluate risk of exposure to fecal contamination in the urban environment through multiple exposure pathways, was deployed in 45 neighborhoods in ten cities, including Accra and Kumasi, Ghana; Vellore, India; Maputo, Mozambique; Siem Reap, Cambodia; Atlanta, United States; Dhaka, Bangladesh; Lusaka, Zambia; Kampala, Uganda; Dakar, Senegal. OBJECTIVE: Assess and compare risk of exposure to fecal contamination via multiple pathways in ten cities. METHODS: In total, 4053 environmental samples, 4586 household surveys, 128 community surveys, and 124 school surveys were collected. E. coli concentrations were measured in environmental samples as an indicator of fecal contamination magnitude. Bayesian methods were used to estimate the distributions of fecal contamination concentration and contact frequency. Exposure to fecal contamination was estimated by the Monte Carlo method. The contamination levels of ten environmental compartments, frequency of contact with those compartments for adults and children, and estimated exposure to fecal contamination through any of the surveyed environmental pathways were compared across cities and neighborhoods. RESULTS: Distribution of fecal contamination in the environment and human contact behavior varied by city. Universally, food pathways were the most common dominant route of exposure to fecal contamination across cities in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Risks of fecal exposure via water pathways, such as open drains, flood water, and municipal drinking water, were site-specific and often limited to smaller geographic areas (i.e., neighborhoods) instead of larger areas (i.e., cities). CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of the relative contribution to fecal exposure from multiple pathways, and the environmental contamination level and frequency of contact for those "dominant pathways" could provide guidance for Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) programming and investments and enable local governments and municipalities to improve intervention strategies to reduce the risk of exposure to fecal contamination.

Achieving global equity for COVID-19 vaccines: Stronger international partnerships and greater advocacy and solidarity are needed.

Peter Figueroa and co-authors advocate for equity in the worldwide provision of COVID-19 vaccines.

Global public health security and justice for vaccines and therapeutics in the COVID-19 pandemic.

A Lancet Commission for COVID-19 task force is shaping recommendations to achieve vaccine and therapeutics access, justice, and equity. This includes ensuring safety and effectiveness harmonized through robust systems of global pharmacovigilance and surveillance. Global production requires expanding support for development, manufacture, testing, and distribution of vaccines and therapeutics to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Global intellectual property rules must not stand in the way of research, production, technology transfer, or equitable access to essential health tools, and in context of pandemics to achieve increased manufacturing without discouraging innovation. Global governance around product quality requires channelling widely distributed vaccines through WHO prequalification (PQ)/emergency use listing (EUL) mechanisms and greater use of national regulatory authorities. A World Health Assembly (WHA) resolution would facilitate improvements and consistency in quality control and assurances. Global health systems require implementing steps to strengthen national systems for controlling COVID-19 and for influenza vaccinations for adults including pregnant and lactating women. A collaborative research network should strive to establish open access databases for bioinformatic analyses, together with programs directed at human capacity utilization and strengthening. Combating anti-science recognizes the urgency for countermeasures to address a global-wide disinformation movement dominating the internet and infiltrating parliaments and local governments.

Cost effectiveness of typhoid vaccination in India.

INTRODUCTION: World Health Organization has prequalified the use of typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) in children over six months of age in typhoid endemic countries. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of introducing TCV separately for urban and rural areas of India. METHODS: A decision analytic model was developed, using a societal perspective, to compare long-term costs and outcomes (3% discount rate) in a new-born cohort of 100,000 children immunized with or without TCV. Three vaccination scenarios were modelled, assuming the protective efficacy of TCV to last for 5, 10 and 15 years following immunization. Incidence of typhoid infection estimated under 'National Surveillance System for Enteric Fever' (NSSEFI)' was used. The prices of vaccine and cost of service delivery were included for vaccination arm. Both health system cost and out-of-pocket expenditures for treatment of typhoid illness and its complications was included. RESULTS: TCV introduction in urban areas would result in prevention of 17% to 36% typhoid cases and deaths. With exclusion of indirect costs, the incremental cost per QALY gained was ₹ 151,346 (54,730-307,975), ₹ 61,710 (-5250 to 163,283) and ₹ 45,188 (-17,069 to 141,093) for scenario 1, 2 and 3 respectively. While, with inclusion of indirect costs, all 3 scenarios were cost saving. Further, in rural areas, TCV is estimated to reduce the typhoid cases and deaths by 19% to 36%, with ICER (incremental cost per QALY gained) ranging from ₹ 2340 (1316-4370) to ₹ 3574 (2057 - 6691) thousand (inclusive of indirect costs) among the 3 vaccination scenarios. CONCLUSION: From a societal perspective, introduction of TCV is a cost saving strategy in urban India. Further, due to low incidence of typhoid infection, introduction of TCV is not cost-effective in rural settings of India.

Global diarrhoea-associated mortality estimates and models in children: Recommendations for dataset and study selection.

BACKGROUND: Multiple factors contribute to variation in disease burden, including the type and quality of data, and inherent properties of the models used. Understanding how these factors affect mortality estimates is crucial, especially in the context of public health decision making. We examine how the quality of the studies selected to provide mortality data, influence estimates of burden and provide recommendations about the inclusion of studies and datasets to calculate mortality estimates. METHODS: To determine how mortality estimates are affected by the data used to generate model outputs, we compared the studies used by The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation (MCEE) modelling groups to generate enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) and Shigella-associated mortality estimates for 2016. Guided by an expert WHO Working Group, we applied a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) to evaluate the quality of studies used by both modelling groups. RESULTS: IHME and MCEE used different sets of ETEC and Shigella studies in their models and the majority of studies were high quality. The distribution of the NOS scores was similar between the two modelling groups. We observed an overrepresentation of studies from some countries in SEAR, AFR and WPR compared to other WHO regions. CONCLUSION: We identified key differences in study inclusion and exclusion criteria used by IHME and MCEE and discuss their impact on datasets used to generate diarrhoea-associated mortality estimates. Based on these observations, we provide a set of recommendations for future estimates of mortality associated with enteric diseases.

Ileal Perforation and Enteric Fever: Implications for Burden of Disease Estimation.

BACKGROUND: Ileal perforation occurs in about 1% of enteric fevers as a complication, with a case fatality risk (CFR) of 20%-30% in the early 1990s that decreased to 15.4% in 2011 in South East Asia. We report nontraumatic ileal perforations and its associated CFR from a 2-year prospective enteric fever surveillance across India. METHODS: The Surveillance for Enteric Fever in India (SEFI) project established a multitiered surveillance system for enteric fever between December 2017 and March 2020. Nontraumatic ileal perforations were surveilled at 8 tertiary care and 6 secondary care hospitals and classified according to etiology. RESULTS: Of the 158 nontraumatic ileal perforation cases identified,126 were consented and enrolled. Enteric fever (34.7%), tuberculosis (19.0%), malignancy (5.8%), and perforation of Meckel diverticulum (4.9%) were the common etiology. In those with enteric fever ileal perforation, the CFR was 7.1%. CONCLUSIONS: Enteric fever remains the most common cause of nontraumatic ileal perforation in India, followed by tuberculosis. Better modalities of establishing etiology are required to classify the illness, and frame management guidelines and preventive measures. CFR data are critical for comprehensive disease burden estimation and policymaking.

Case-Fatality Ratio of Enteric Fever: Estimates From Multitiered Surveillance in India.

BACKGROUND: The case-fatality ratio (CFR) for enteric fever is essential for estimating disease burden and calibrating measures that balance the likely health gains from interventions against social and economic costs. METHODS: We aimed to estimate the CFR for enteric fever using multiple data sources within the National Surveillance System for Enteric Fever in India. This surveillance (2017-2020) was established as a multitiered surveillance system including community cohorts (tier 1), facility-based (tier 2), and tertiary care surveillance (tier 3) for estimating the burden of enteric fever in India. The CFR was calculated after accounting for healthcare-seeking behavior for enteric fever and deaths occurring outside the hospital. RESULTS: A total of 1236 hospitalized patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever were enrolled, of which 9 fatal cases were identified, for an estimated hospitalized CFR of 0.73% (95% confidence interval [CI], .33%-1.38%). After adjusting for severity, healthcare-seeking behavior, and deaths occurring out-of-hospital, the CFR was estimated to be 0.16% (95% CI, .07%-.29%) for all enteric fevers. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates of the CFR are relatively lower than previously estimated, accounting for care-seeking behavior and deaths outside the hospital.

Cost of Illness Due to Severe Enteric Fever in India.

BACKGROUND: Lack of robust data on economic burden due to enteric fever in India has made decision making on typhoid vaccination a challenge. Surveillance for Enteric Fever network was established to address gaps in typhoid disease and economic burden. METHODS: Patients hospitalized with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever and nontraumatic ileal perforation were identified at 14 hospitals. These sites represent urban referral hospitals (tier 3) and smaller hospitals in urban slums, remote rural, and tribal settings (tier 2). Cost of illness and productivity loss data from onset to 28 days after discharge from hospital were collected using a structured questionnaire. The direct and indirect costs of an illness episode were analyzed by type of setting. RESULTS: In total, 274 patients from tier 2 surveillance, 891 patients from tier 3 surveillance, and 110 ileal perforation patients provided the cost of illness data. The mean direct cost of severe enteric fever was US$119.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], US$85.8-152.4) in tier 2 and US$405.7 (95% CI, 366.9-444.4) in tier 3; 16.9% of patients in tier 3 experienced catastrophic expenditure. CONCLUSIONS: The cost of treating enteric fever is considerable and likely to increase with emerging antimicrobial resistance. Equitable preventive strategies are urgently needed.

Comparison of Strategies for Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine Introduction in India: A Cost-Effectiveness Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever causes substantial global mortality, with almost half occurring in India. New typhoid vaccines are highly effective and recommended by the World Health Organization for high-burden settings. There is a need to determine whether and which typhoid vaccine strategies should be implemented in India. METHODS: We assessed typhoid vaccination using a dynamic compartmental model, parameterized by and calibrated to disease and costing data from a recent multisite surveillance study in India. We modeled routine and 1-time campaign strategies that target different ages and settings. The primary outcome was cost-effectiveness, measured by incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) benchmarked against India's gross national income per capita (US$2130). RESULTS: Both routine and campaign vaccination strategies were cost-saving compared to the status quo, due to averted costs of illness. The preferred strategy was a nationwide community-based catchup campaign targeting children aged 1-15 years alongside routine vaccination, with an ICER of $929 per disability-adjusted life-year averted. Over the first 10 years of implementation, vaccination could avert 21-39 million cases and save $1.6-$2.2 billion. These findings were broadly consistent across willingness-to-pay thresholds, epidemiologic settings, and model input distributions. CONCLUSIONS: Despite high initial costs, routine and campaign typhoid vaccination in India could substantially reduce mortality and was highly cost-effective.

Hospitalization Rates and Direct Medical Costs for Fever in a Pediatric Cohort in South India.

BACKGROUND: Primary data on causes and costs of hospitalization are necessary for costing and cost-effectiveness analysis. Data on incidence and causes of hospitalization and consequent expenses among Indian children are limited. METHODS: A cohort of 6000 children aged 0.5-15 years residing in urban Vellore was followed for 3 years, under the Vellore Typhoid Study, 2016-2017, and later under the Surveillance for Enteric Fever project, 2017-2019. Data on hospitalization events and associated antibiotic use, and direct medical costs for fever-related hospitalization of study children were obtained from caregivers through weekly follow-up by study field workers. RESULTS: The incidence of hospitalization was 33 per 1000 child-years of observation. Children aged 0.5-5 years had the highest incidence of hospitalization. The top 5 infectious causes for hospitalization were acute undifferentiated fevers, respiratory tract infections, acute gastroenteritis, enteric fever, and dengue. The overall median cost of hospitalization for fever was 4243 (interquartile range, 2502-7215) Indian rupees (INR). An episode of dengue had a median cost of 5627 INR, followed by acute undifferentiated fevers and enteric fever with median costs of 3860 and 3507 INR, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitalization for fever is common in young children and impacts household finances in low-income Indian households.