Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa's provinces, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990-2007 and 2007-2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance. RESULTS: Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990-2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007-2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Reflecting on the current scenario and forecasting the future demand for medical doctors in South Africa up to 2030: towards equal representation of women.

BACKGROUND: Increasing feminization of medical professions is well-acknowledged. However, this does not always equate to equitable representation of women within medicine, regarding their socio-demographic indicators, regions, sectors and fields of practice. Thus, this paper quantifies the gap in supply of female medical doctors in relation to demand, towards reaching different gender equity scenarios. METHODS: A retrospective review of the Health Professions Council of South Africa's (HPCSA) database on registered medical doctors (medical practitioners and medical specialists) from 2002 until 2019 was utilized as an indicator of supply. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize data, and inferential statistics (considering a significance level of 0.05) were utilized to determine the association between the number of male and female doctors, disaggregated by demographic variables. We forecasted future gaps of South African male and female doctors up to 2030, based on maintaining the current male-to-female ratio and attaining an equitable ratio of 1:1. RESULTS: While the ratio of female doctors per 10 000 population has increased between 2000 and 2019, from 1.2 to 3.2, it remains substantially lower than the comparative rate for male doctors per 10 000 population which increased from 3.5 in 2000 to 4.7 in 2019. Men continue to dominate the medical profession in 2019, representing 59.4% (27,579) of medical doctors registered with the HPCSA with females representing 40.6% (18,841), resulting in a male-to-female ratio of 1:0.7. Female doctors from the Black population group have constantly grown in the medical workforce from 4.4% (2000), to 12.5% (2019). There would be a deficit of 2242 female doctors by 2030 to achieve a 1:1 ratio between male and female medical doctors. An independent-samples t-test revealed that there was a significant difference in the number of male and female doctors. The Kruskal-Wallis test indicated that there was a sustained significant difference in terms of the number of male and female doctors by population groups and geographical distribution. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the investigation, we propose that HRH planning incorporate forecasting methodologies towards reaching gender equity targets to inform planning for production of healthcare workers.

A human resources for health analysis of registered family medicine specialists in South Africa: 2002-19.

BACKGROUND: In South Africa, there is a need to clarify the human resources for health policy on family physicians (FPs) and to ensure that the educational and health systems are well aligned in terms of the production and employment of FPs. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the human resource situation with regard to family medicine in South Africa and evaluate the requirements for the future. METHODS: A retrospective review of the Health Professions Council of South Africa's (HPCSA) database on registered family medicine practitioners from 2002 until 2019. Additional data were obtained from the South African Academy of Family Physicians and published research. RESULTS: A total of 1247 family medicine practitioners were registered with the HPCSA in 2019, including 969 specialist FPs and 278 medical practitioners on a discontinued register. Of the 969, 194 were new graduates and 775 from older programmes. The number of FPs increased from 0.04/10 000 population in 2009 to 0.16/10 000 in 2019, with only 29% in the public sector. On average, seven registrars entered each of nine training programmes per year and three graduated. New graduates and registrars reflect a growing diversity and more female FPs. The number of FPs differed significantly in terms of age, gender, provincial location and population groups. CONCLUSIONS: South Africa has an inadequate supply of FPs with substantial inequalities. Training programmes need to triple their output over the next 10 years. Human resources for health policy should substantially increase opportunities for training and employment of FPs.