Costs associated with insufficient physical activity in Germany: cross-sectional results from the baseline examination of the German national cohort (NAKO).

BACKGROUND: Insufficient physical activity (PA) is a leading risk factor for non-communicable diseases posing a significant economic burden to healthcare systems and societies. The study aimed to examine the differences in healthcare and indirect costs between sufficient and insufficient PA and the cost differences between PA intensity groups. METHODS: The cross-sectional analysis was based on data from 157,648 participants in the baseline examination of the German National Cohort (NAKO) study. Healthcare and indirect costs were calculated based on self-reported information on health-related resource use and productivity losses. PA in the domains leisure, transport, and work was assessed by the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire and categorized into sufficient/insufficient and intensity levels (very low/low/medium/high) based on PA recommendations of the World Health Organization. Two-part models adjusted for relevant covariates were used to estimate mean costs for PA groups. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Insufficiently active people had higher average annual healthcare costs (Δ €188, 95% CI [64, 311]) and healthcare plus indirect costs (Δ €482, 95% CI [262, 702]) compared to sufficiently active people. The difference was especially evident in the population aged 60 + years and when considering only leisure PA. An inverse association was observed between leisure PA and costs, whereas a direct association was found between PA at work and costs. Adjusting for the number of comorbidities reduced the differences between activity groups, but the trend persisted. The association between PA and costs differed in direction between PA domains. Future research may provide further insight into the temporal relationship between PA and costs.

Age-related patterns in mandibular third molar eruption: presenting new forensic age assessment reference data from a Chinese population.

Valid reference data are essential for reliable forensic age assessment procedures in the living, a fact that extends to the trait of mandibular third molar eruption in dental panoramic radiographs (PAN). The objective of this study was to acquire valid reference data for a northern Chinese population. The study was guided by the criteria for reference studies in age assessment.To this end, a study population from China comprising 917 panoramic radiographs obtained from 430 females and 487 males aged between 15.00 and 25.99 years was analysed. Of the 917 PANs, a total of 1230 mandibular third molars were evaluated.The PANs, retrospectively evaluated, were performed for medical indication during the period from 2016 to 2021. The assessment of mandibular third molars was conducted using the staging scale presented by Olze et al. in 2012. Two independent examiners, trained in assessing PANs for forensic age estimation, evaluated the images. In instances where the two examiners diverged in their assessments these were subsequently deliberated, and a consensus stage was assigned.The mean age increased with higher stages for both teeth and both sexes. The minimum age recorded for stage D, indicating complete tooth eruption, was 15.6 years in females and 16.1 years in males. Consequently, the completion of mandibular third molar eruption was observed in both sexes well before reaching the age of 18. In light of our results, it is evident that relying solely on the assessment of mandibular third molar eruption may not be sufficient for accurately determining the age of majority. Contrary to previous literature, this finding of a completed eruption of the mandibular third molars in northern Chinese individuals is only suitable for detecting the completion of the 16th year of life in males according to our results. However, as the results are inconsistent compared to other studies in the literature, the trait should not be used as the only decisive marker to prove this age threshold in males from northern China.

Third molar eruption in dental panoramic radiographs as a feature for forensic age assessment - new reference data from a German population.

Forensic age assessment in the living can provide legal certainty when an individual's chronological age is unknown or when age-related information is questionable. An established method involves assessing the eruption of mandibular third molars through dental panoramic radiographs (PAN). In age assessment procedures, the respective findings are compared to reference data. The objective of this study was to generate new reference data in line with the required standards for mandibular third molar eruption within a German population. For this purpose, 605 PANs from 302 females and 303 males aged 15.04 to 25.99 years were examined. The PANs were acquired between 2013 and 2020, and the development of the mandibular third molars was rated independently by two experienced examiners using the Olze et al. staging scale from 2012. In case of disagreement in the assigned ratings, a consensus was reached through arbitration. While the mean, median and minimum ages were observed to increase with each stage of mandibular third molar eruption according to the Olze method, there was considerable overlap in the distribution of age between the stages. The minimum age for stage D, which corresponds to complete tooth eruption, was 16.1 years for females and 17.1 years for males. Thus, the completion of mandibular third molar eruption was found in both sexes before reaching the age of 18. In all individuals who had at least one tooth with completed eruption and who were younger than 17.4 years of age (n = 10), mineralization of the teeth in question was not complete. Based on our findings, the feature of assessing mandibular third molar eruption in PAN cannot be relied upon for determining age of majority.

Studying eruption patterns of mandibular third molars for forensic age assessment: Introducing current reference data from a population of black South Africans.

INTRODUCTION: Evaluation of the eruption of mandibular third molars in orthopantomograms (OPGs) is a method of forensic age assessment. The objective of our study was to provide valid reference data for this trait within a population of black South Africans. The study was guided by the criteria for reference studies in age assessment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A study population from Pretoria, South Africa comprising 670 OPGs obtained from 338 black females and 332 black males aged between 15.00 and 25.97 years was analysed. All OPGs were performed for medical indication during the period from 2011 to 2022 and were retrospectively evaluated. From the 670 OPGs, a total of 1021 mandibular third molars were evaluated. The assessment of mandibular third molars was conducted using the staging scale presented by Olze et al. in 2012. Two experienced dentists evaluated the OPGs independently of each other. If the two examiners diverged in their assessments, a consensus stage was assigned. RESULTS: As expected, the mean, median and minimal age increased with higher stages for both teeth and both sexes. The minimum age recorded for stage D, indicating complete tooth eruption, was 15.79 years in females and 16.62 years in males. CONCLUSION: As it is the case for previous reference studies in other countries, placing exclusive reliance on the evaluation of mandibular third molar eruption is inadequate for ascertaining the age of majority among Black South Africans. Future studies need to examine if our results are transferable to other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Radiological assessment of periodontal ligament space visibility on third molars for forensic age assessment - a comparison study of three different staging scales.

Various staging scales have been proposed for the assessment of the visibility of the periodontal ligament space of mandibular third molars on dental panoramic radiographs (PANs) for forensic age assessment in living individuals. However, up to now, there has been no systematic comparison between these staging scales available. We directly compared the 2010 staging scale proposed by Olze et al. with the 2017 staging by Lucas et al. and the 2020 staging by Guo et al. in a German study population. We evaluated 233 PANs from 115 females and 118 males aged 20.0 to 40.9 years using three independent examiners, with one examiner conducting two assessments. We examined the correlation between age and stage, as well as the inter- and intra-rater reliabilities. While the point estimates for the correlation coefficient and the reliability measures were lowest for the Guo scale and highest for the Olze scale, confidence intervals showed a large overlap, particularly for the scales of Olze et al. and Lucas et al. The correlation coefficients between stage and age were consistently lower in females than in males across all methods. In summary, we showed that the staging scales of Olze et al. and Lucas et al. were very similar. The Olze method showed higher point estimates across all analyses, and because there are more reference data available for this method, we argue that it should be preferred as the method of choice for further studies in the field. However, Guo method could be considered for instances, in which the inter-radicular periodontal ligament is not evaluable.

Dental age assessment in the living: a comparison of two common stage classifications for assessing radiographic visibility of the root canals in mandibular third molars.

After dentition is complete, degenerative tooth characteristics can be used for dental age assessment. Radiological assessment of the visibility of the root canals of the mandibular third molars in dental panoramic radiographs (DPRs) is known to be one such suitable feature. Essentially, two different stage classifications are available for evaluating the visibility of the root canals of mandibular third molars in the DPR. The aim of this study was to determine if one method outperforms the other. Therefore, the 2010 method of Olze et al. was directly compared to the 2017 method of Lucas et al. in the 2020 modification of Al Qattan et al. To this end, 233 DPRs from 116 females and 117 males aged 20.0 to 40.9 years were evaluated by three independent experienced examiners. In addition, one examiner ran two independent evaluations. Correlation between age and stage was investigated, and the inter- and intra-rater reliability was estimated for both methods. Correlation between age and stage was higher with the Olze method (Spearman rho 0.388 [95% CI 0.309, 0.462], males and 0.283 [95% CI 0.216, 0.357], females) than the Lucas method (0.212 [95% CI 0.141, 0.284], males and 0.265 [95% CI 0.193, 0.340], females). The intra-rater repeatability of the Olze method (Krippendorff's α = 0.576 [95% CI 0.508, 0.644], males and α = 0.592 [95% CI 0.523, 0.661], females) was greater than that for the Lucas method (intra-rater α = 0.422 [95% CI 0.382, 0.502], males and α = 0.516 [95% CI 0.523, 0.661], females). Inter-rater reproducibility was also greater for the Olze method (α = 0.542 [95% CI 0.463, 0.620], males and α = 0.533 [95% CI 0.451, 0.615], females) compared to the Lucas method (α = 0.374 [95% CI 0.304, 0.443], males and α = 0.432 [95% CI 0.359, 0.505], females). The method of Olze et al. was found to present marginal advantages to the Lucas et al. method across all examinations and may be a more appropriate method for application in future studies.

Third molar eruption in orthopantomograms as a feature for forensic age assessment-a comparison study of different classification systems.

Evaluation of third molar eruption represents an established method for age assessment of living individuals. Different classification systems are available for the radiological assessment of third molar eruption. The aim of this study was to identify the most accurate and reliable classification system for the mandibular third molar eruption on orthopantomograms (OPG). We compared the method of Olze et al. (2012) with the method of Willmot et al. (2018) and a newly derived classification system using OPGs from 211 individuals aged 15-25 years. The assessments were performed by three experienced examiners. One examiner evaluated all radiographs twice. The correlation between age and stage was investigated and the inter- and intra-rater reliability was estimated for all three methods. Correlation between stage and age was similar between classification systems, although higher in the data from males (Spearman's rho ranging from 0.568 to 0.583) than from females (0.440 to 0.446). Inter- and intra-rater reliability measures were similar across methods and invariant on sex, with overlapping confidence intervals, although the highest point estimates for both intra- and inter-rater reliability were for the method by Olze et al. with Krippendorf's alpha values of 0.904 (95% confidence interval 0.854, 0.954) and 0.797 (95% confidence interval 0.744, 0.850). It was concluded that the method of Olze et al. from 2012 is a reliable method for practical application and future studies.

Authors' response: Occupation and SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among workers during the first pandemic wave in Germany: potential for bias.

We thank van Tongeren et al for responding to our study on occupational disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection risks during the first pandemic wave in Germany (1). The authors address the potential for bias resulting from differential testing between occupational groups and propose an alternative analytical strategy for dealing with selective testing. In the following, we want to discuss two aspects of this issue, namely (i) the extent and reasons of differential testing in our cohort and (ii) the advantages and disadvantages of different analytical approaches to study risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our study relied on nationwide prospective cohort data including more than 100 000 workers in order to compare the incidence of infections between different occupations and occupational status positions. We found elevated infection risks in personal services and business administration, in essential occupations (including health care) and among people in higher occupational status positions (ie, managers and highly skilled workers) during the first pandemic wave in Germany (2). Van Tongeren's et al main concern is that the correlations found could be affected by a systematic bias because people in healthcare professions get tested more often than employees in other professions. A second argument is that better-off people could be more likely to use testing as they are less affected by direct costs (prices for testing) and the economic hardship associated with a positive test result (eg, loss of earnings in the event of sick leave). We share the authors' view that differential testing must be considered when analysing and interpreting the data. Thus, in our study, we examined the proportion of tests conducted in each occupational group as part of the sensitivity analyses (see supplementary figure S1, accessible at www.sjweh.fi/article/4037). As expected, testing proportions were exceptionally high in medical occupations (due to employer requirements). However, we did not observe systematic differences among non-medical occupations or when categorising by skill-level or managerial responsibility. This might be explained by several reasons. First, SARS-CoV-2 testing was free of charge during the first pandemic wave in Germany, but reporting a risk contact or having symptoms was a necessary condition for testing ( https://www.bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/coronavirus/chronik-coronavirus.html (accessed 5 September 2022). The newspaper article cited by van Tongeren et al is misleading as it refers to a calendar date after our study period. Second, different motivation for testing due to economic hardship in case of a positive test result is an unlikely explanation, because Germany has a universal healthcare system, including paid sick leave and sickness benefits for all workers (3). Self-employed people carry greater financial risks in case of sickness. We therefore included self-employment in the multivariable analyses to address this potential source of bias. While the observed inverse social gradient may be surprising, it actually matches with findings of ecological studies from Germany (4, 5), the United States (6, 7) as well as Spain, Portugal, Sweden, The Netherlands, Israel, and Hong Kong (8), all of which observed higher infection rates in wealthier neighbourhoods during the initial outbreak phase of the pandemic. One possible explanation is the higher mobility of managers and better educated workers, who are more likely to participate in meetings and engage in business travel and holiday trips like skiing. Given the increasing number of studies providing evidence for this hypothesis, we conclude that the inverse social gradient in our study likely reflects different exposure probabilities and is not a result of systematic bias. This also holds true for the elevated infection risks in essential workers, which is actually corroborated by a large body of research (9-11). Regarding differential likelihood of testing, van Tongeren et al state that "[i]t is relatively simple to address this problem by using a test-negative design" (1). As van Tongeren et al describe, this is a case-control approach only including individuals who were tested (without considering those who were not tested). However, the proposed analytical strategy can lead to another (more serious) selection bias if testing proportions and/or testing criteria differ between groups (12). This can be easily illustrated when comparing the results based on a time-incidence design with those obtained by a test-negative design as shown in table 1 (see PDF). Both approaches show similar results in terms of vertical occupational differences. Infection was more common if individuals had a high skill level or had a managerial position, but associations were stronger in the time-incidence design and did not reach statistical significance in the test-negative design (as indicated by the confidence intervals overlapping "1"). Unfortunately, the test-negative approach relies on a strongly reduced sample size and thus results in greater statistical uncertainty and loss of statistical power (13). In contrast, the test-negative design yields a different picture when estimating the association between essential occupation and infection risk: In this analysis, essential workers did not differ from non-essential workers in their chance of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the test-negative design even exhibits a lower chance for essential workers). This is rather counter-intuitive and is not in accordance with what we know about the occupational hazards of healthcare workers during the pandemic (14). The main problem is that proportions of positive tests are highly unreliable when testing proportions and/or testing criteria differ between groups. As essential workers were tested more often without being symptomatic (due to employer requirements), a lower proportion of positive tests in this group does not necessarily correspond to a lower risk of infection. Consequently, we are not convinced that the test-negative design should be the 'gold standard' for studying risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infections (15). Especially problematic is the loss of statistical power (increasing the probability of a type II error) and the low validity of the test-positivity when test criteria and/or test proportions differ between groups. References 1. van Tongeren M, Rhodes S, Pearce N. Occupation and SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among workers during the first pandemic wave in Germany: potential for bias. Scand J Work Environ Health 2022;48(7):586-587. https://doi.org/10.5271/sjweh.4052. 2. Reuter M, Rigó M, Formazin M, Liebers F, Latza U, Castell S, et al. Occupation and SARS-CoV-2 infection risk among 108 960 workers during the first pandemic wave in Germany. Scand J Work Environ Health 2022;48:446-56. https://doi.org/10.5271/sjweh.4037. 3. Busse R, Blümel M, Knieps F, Bärnighausen T. Statutory health insurance in Germany: a health system shaped by 135 years of solidarity, self-governance, and competition. Lancet 2017;390:882-97. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)31280-1. 4. Wachtler B, Michalski N, Nowossadeck E, Diercke M, Wahrendorf M, Santos-Hövener C, et al. Socioeconomic inequalities in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection - First results from an analysis of surveillance data from Germany. J Heal Monit 2020;5:18-29. https://doi.org/10.25646/7057. 5. Plümper T, Neumayer E. The pandemic predominantly hits poor neighbourhoods? SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 fatalities in German districts. Eur J Public Health 2020;30:1176-80. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckaa168. 6. Abedi V, Olulana O, Avula V, Chaudhary D, Khan A, Shahjouei S, et al. Racial, Economic, and Health Inequality and COVID-19 Infection in the United States. J Racial Ethn Heal Disparities 2021;8:732-42. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40615-020-00833-4. 7. Mukherji N. The Social and Economic Factors Underlying the Incidence of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in US Counties During the Initial Outbreak Phase. Rev Reg Stud 2022;52. https://doi.org/10.52324/001c.35255. 8. Beese F, Waldhauer J, Wollgast L, Pförtner T, Wahrendorf M, Haller S, et al. Temporal Dynamics of Socioeconomic Inequalities in COVID-19 Outcomes Over the Course of the Pandemic-A Scoping Review. Int J Public Health 2022;67:1-14. https://doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2022.1605128. 9. Nguyen LH, Drew DA, Graham MS, Joshi AD, Guo C-G, Ma W, et al. Risk of COVID-19 among front-line health-care workers and the general community: a prospective cohort study. Lancet Public Heal 2020;5:e475-83. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30164-X. 10. Chou R, Dana T, Buckley DI, Selph S, Fu R, Totten AM. Epidemiology of and Risk Factors for Coronavirus Infection in Health Care Workers. Ann Intern Med 2020;173:120-36. https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-1632. 11. Stringhini S, Zaballa M-E, Pullen N, de Mestral C, Perez-Saez J, Dumont R, et al. Large variation in anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence among essential workers in Geneva, Switzerland. Nat Commun 2021;12:3455. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23796-4. 12. Accorsi EK, Qiu X, Rumpler E, Kennedy-Shaffer L, Kahn R, Joshi K, et al. How to detect and reduce potential sources of biases in studies of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19. Eur J Epidemiol 2021;36:179-96. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-021-00727-7. 13. Cohen J. Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences. 2nd Editio. New York: Routledge; 2013. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203771587. 14. The Lancet. The plight of essential workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Lancet 2020;395:1587. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31200-9. 15. Vandenbroucke JP, Brickley EB, Pearce N, Vandenbroucke-Grauls CMJE. The Evolving Usefulness of the Test-negative Design in Studying Risk Factors for COVID-19. Epidemiology 2022;33:e7-8. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001438.

Providing laypeople with results from dynamic infectious disease modelling studies affects their allocation preference for scarce medical resources-a factorial experiment.

BACKGROUND: Allocation of scarce medical resources can be based on different principles. It has not yet been investigated which allocation schemes are preferred by medical laypeople in a particular situation of medical scarcity like an emerging infectious disease and how the choices are affected by providing information about expected population-level effects of the allocation scheme based on modelling studies. We investigated the potential benefit of strategic communication of infectious disease modelling results. METHODS: In a two-way factorial experiment (n = 878 participants), we investigated if prognosis of the disease or information about expected effects on mortality at population-level (based on dynamic infectious disease modelling studies) influenced the choice of preferred allocation schemes for prevention and treatment of an unspecified sexually transmitted infection. A qualitative analysis of the reasons for choosing specific allocation schemes supplements our results. RESULTS: Presence of the factor "information about the population-level effects of the allocation scheme" substantially increased the probability of choosing a resource allocation system that minimized overall harm among the population, while prognosis did not affect allocation choices. The main reasons for choosing an allocation scheme differed among schemes, but did not differ among those who received additional model-based information on expected population-level effects and those who did not. CONCLUSIONS: Providing information on the expected population-level effects from dynamic infectious disease modelling studies resulted in a substantially different choice of allocation schemes. This finding supports the importance of incorporating model-based information in decision-making processes and communication strategies.

Increase in Mental Disorders During the COVID-19 Pandemic-The Role of Occupational and Financial Strains.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have reported an increase in mental disorders during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the exact reasons for this development are not well understood. In this study we investigate whether pandemic-related occupational and financial changes (e.g., reduced working hours, working from home, financial losses) were associated with increased symptoms of depression and anxiety compared with the situation before the pandemic. METHODS: We analyzed data from the German National Cohort (NAKO) Study. Between May and November 2020, 161 849 study participants answered questions on their mental state and social circumstances. Their responses were compared with data from the baseline survey before the pandemic (2014-2019). Linear fixed-effects models were used to determine whether individual changes in the severity of symptoms of depression (PHQ-9) or anxiety (GAD-7) were associated with occupational/ financial changes (controlling for various covariates). RESULTS: The prevalence of moderate or severe symptoms of depression and anxiety increased by 2.4% and 1.5%, respectively, during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with the preceding years. The mean severity of the symptoms rose slightly. A pronounced increase in symptoms was observed among those who became unemployed during the pandemic (+ 1.16 points on the depression scale, 95% confidence interval [0.91; 1.41], range 0-27). Increases were also seen for reduced working hours with no short-time allowance, increased working hours, working from home, insecurity regarding employment, and financial strain. The deterioration in mental health was largely statistically explained by the occupational and financial changes investigated in the model. CONCLUSION: Depressive symptoms and anxiety disorders increased slightly in the study population during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Occupational and financial difficulties were an essential contributory factor. These strains should be taken into account both in the care of individual patients and in the planning of targeted prevention measures.

Effects of incomplete inter-hospital network data on the assessment of transmission dynamics of hospital-acquired infections.

In the year 2020, there were 105 different statutory insurance companies in Germany with heterogeneous regional coverage. Obtaining data from all insurance companies is challenging, so that it is likely that projects will have to rely on data not covering the whole population. Consequently, the study of epidemic spread in hospital referral networks using data-driven models may be biased. We studied this bias using data from three German regional insurance companies covering four federal states: AOK (historically "general local health insurance company", but currently only the abbreviation is used) Lower Saxony (in Federal State of Lower Saxony), AOK Bavaria (in Bavaria), and AOK PLUS (in Thuringia and Saxony). To understand how incomplete data influence network characteristics and related epidemic simulations, we created sampled datasets by randomly dropping a proportion of patients from the full datasets and replacing them with random copies of the remaining patients to obtain scale-up datasets to the original size. For the sampled and scale-up datasets, we calculated several commonly used network measures, and compared them to those derived from the original data. We found that the network measures (degree, strength and closeness) were rather sensitive to incompleteness. Infection prevalence as an outcome from the applied susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model was fairly robust against incompleteness. At incompleteness levels as high as 90% of the original datasets the prevalence estimation bias was below 5% in scale-up datasets. Consequently, a coverage as low as 10% of the local population of the federal state population was sufficient to maintain the relative bias in prevalence below 10% for a wide range of transmission parameters as encountered in clinical settings. Our findings are reassuring that despite incomplete coverage of the population, German health insurance data can be used to study effects of patient traffic between institutions on the spread of pathogens within healthcare networks.

Age-dependent decrease in dental pulp cavity volume as a feature for age assessment: a comparative in vitro study using 9.4-T UTE-MRI and CBCT 3D imaging.

Evaluation of secondary dentin formation is generally suitable for age assessment. We investigated the potential of modern magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technology to visualize the dental pulp in direct comparison with cone beam computed tomography (CBCT). To this end, we examined 32 extracted human teeth (teeth 11-48 [FDI]) using 9.4-T ultrashort echo time (UTE)-MRI and CBCT (methods). 3D reconstruction was performed via both manual and semi-automatic segmentation (settings) for both methods in two runs by one examiner. Nine teeth were also examined by a second examiner. We evaluated the agreement between examiners, scan methods, and settings. CBCT was able to determine the pulp volume for all teeth. This was not possible for two teeth on MRI due to MRI artifacts. The mean pulp volume estimated by CBCT was consistently higher (~ 43%) with greater variability. With lower variability in its measurements, evaluation of pulp volume using the MRI method exhibited greater sensitivity to differences between settings (p = 0.016) and between examiners (p = 0.009). The interactions of single-rooted teeth and multi-rooted teeth and method or setting were not found to be significant. For examiner agreement, the mean pulp volumes were similar with overlapping measurements (ICC > 0.995). Suitable for use in age assessment is 9.4-T UTE-MRI with good reliability and lower variation than CBCT. For MRI, manual segmentation is necessary due to a more detailed representation of the interior of the pulp cavity. Since determination of pulp volume is expected to be systematically larger using CBCT, method-specific reference values are indispensable for practical age assessment procedures. The results should be verified under in vivo conditions in the future.

The relevance of body mass index in forensic age assessment of living individuals: an age-adjusted linear regression analysis using multivariable fractional polynomials.

In forensic age assessment of living individuals, developmental stages of skeletal maturation and tooth mineralization are examined and compared with a reference population. It is of interest which factors can affect the development of these features. We investigated the effect of body mass index (BMI) on the developmental stages of the medial epiphysis of the clavicle, the distal epiphysis of the radius, the distal epiphysis of the femur, the proximal epiphysis of the tibia, and the left lower third molar in a total of 581 volunteers, 294 females and 287 males aged 12-24 years, using 3 T MRI. BMI values in the cohort ranged from 13.71 kg/m2 in a 12-year-old female to 35.15 kg/m2 in an 18-year-old female. The effect of BMI on the development of the characteristics was investigated using linear regression models with multivariable fractional polynomials. In the univariable analysis, BMI was associated with all feature systems (beta between 0.10 and 0.44; p < 0.001). When accounting for the physiological increase of BMI with increasing age, the effect of BMI was lower and in the majority of the models no longer clinically relevant. Betas decreased to values between 0.00 and 0.05. When adding feature variables to a model already including age, r2 values increased only minimally. For an overall bone ossification score combining all characteristics, the adjusted ß was 0.11 (p = 0.021) and 0.08 (p = 0.23) for females and males, respectively. Low ß and r2 values (0.00 (adjusted)-0.16 (crude)) were present in both models for third molar development already in the unadjusted analyses. In conclusion, our study found no to little effect of BMI on osseous development in young adults. Teeth development in both sexes was completely independent of BMI. Therefore, dental methods should be part of every age assessment.

Sociodemographic determinants of spatial disparities in early childhood caries: An ecological analysis in Braunschweig, Germany.

OBJECTIVES: To identify spatial disparities in dental caries experience (measured by dmft (decayed missing filled teeth) index) of children in the city of Braunschweig and to evaluate whether these disparities can be explained by sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS: We examined the dental health of children aged 3-6 years visiting a daycare centre (DCC) in the metropolitan area of Braunschweig between 2009 and 2014 by combining data on dental health from the annual visits of the local health service with aggregated data on sociodemographic factors for Braunschweig's city districts. We assessed longitudinal patterns of change in average dmft index at district level from 2009 to 2014 using a finite mixture model. We analysed spatial autocorrelation of the district's average dmft indices by Moran's I to identify spatial clusters. With a spatial lag model, we evaluated whether sociodemographic risk factors (data from 2012) were associated with high dmft scores (data from 2014) and whether spatial disparities remained after adjusting for these sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: The average dmft index decreased slightly (ß=-0.048; P<.03; CI 95% [-0.079; -0.017]) from 2009 to 2014. The finite mixture model resulted in four different groups of trajectories over time. While three groups showed a decrease in dmft score, one group showed an increase from 2009 to 2014. Moran's I test statistic showed strong evidence for spatial clustering (Moran's I 0.30, P=.002). A cluster of districts with high dmft values was identified in the centre of the city. The spatial lag model showed that both the proportion of unemployed persons (aged 16-65) and the proportion of persons with migration background were associated with the dmft values at district level. After adjusting for these, no further spatial heterogeneity was observed. CONCLUSION: We identified regional clusters for poor dental health in a German city and showed that these clusters can be explained by sociodemographic characteristics. The findings support the need of targeted interventions and prevention measures in regions with less favourable sociodemographic characteristics.