Increased care-need in older long-term care insurance users after the 2018 Japan Floods: a retrospective cohort study based on the Japanese long-term care insurance claims.

BACKGROUND: Level of care-need (LOC) is an indicator of elderly person's disability level and is officially used to determine the care services provided in Japan's long-term care insurance (LTCI) system. The 2018 Japan Floods, which struck western Japan in July 2018, were the country's second largest water disaster. This study determined the extent to which the disaster affected the LOC of victims and compared it with that of non-victims. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study, based on the Japanese long-term care insurance claims from two months before (May 2018) to five months after the disaster (December 2018) in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures, which were the most severely damaged areas in the country. A code indicating victim status, certified by a residential municipality, was used to distinguish between victims and non-victims. Those aged 64 years or younger, those who had the most severe LOC before the disaster, and those whose LOC increased even before the disaster were excluded. The primary endpoint was the augmentation of pre-disaster LOC after the disaster, which was evaluated using the survival time analysis. Age, gender, and type of care service were used as covariates. RESULTS: Of the total 193,723 participants, 1,407 (0.7%) were certified disaster victims. Five months after the disaster, 135 (9.6%) of victims and 14,817 (7.7%) of non-victims experienced the rise of LOC. The victim group was significantly more likely to experience an augmentation of LOC than the non-victim group (adjusted hazard ratio 1.24; 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.45). CONCLUSIONS: Older people who were affected by the disaster needed more care than before and the degree of care-need increase was substantially more than non-victims. The result suggests that natural disasters generate more demand for care services among the older people, and incur more resources and cost for society than before.

Effects of 2018 Japan floods on healthcare costs and service utilization in Japan: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Floods and torrential rains are natural disasters caused by climate change. Unfortunately, such events are more frequent and are increasingly severe in recent times. The 2018 Japan Floods in western Japan were one of the largest such disasters. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on healthcare costs and service utilization. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included all patients whose receipts accrued between July 2017 and June 2019 in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures using the National Database of Health Insurance Claims. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to investigate yearly healthcare costs during the pre-and post-disaster periods, quarterly high-cost patients (top 10%), and service utilization (outpatient care, inpatient care, and dispensing pharmacy) during the post-disaster period. After the GEEs, we estimated the average marginal effects as the attributable disaster effect. RESULTS: The total number of participants was 5,534,276. Victims accounted for 0.65% of the total number of participants (n = 36,032). Although there was no significant difference in pre-disaster healthcare costs (p = 0.63), post-disaster costs were $3,382 (95% CI: 3,254-3,510) for victims and $3,027 (95% CI: 3,015-3,038) for non-victims (p < 0.001). The highest risk difference among high-cost patients was 0.8% (95% CI: 0.6-1.1) in the fourth quarter. In contrast, the highest risk difference of service utilization was in the first quarter (outpatient care: 7.0% (95% CI: 6.7-7.4), inpatient care: 1.3% (95% CI: 1.1-1.5), and dispensing pharmacy: 5.9% (95% CI: 5.5-6.4)). CONCLUSION: Victims of the 2018 Japan Floods had higher medical costs and used more healthcare services than non-victims. In addition, the risk of higher medical costs was highest at the end of the observation period. It is necessary to estimate the increase in healthcare costs according to the disaster scale and plan for appropriate post-disaster healthcare service delivery.

How the 2018 Japan Floods Impacted Nursing Home Admissions for Older Persons: A Longitudinal Study Using the Long-Term Care Insurance Comprehensive Database.

OBJECTIVES: As disasters become more frequent because of global warming, countries across the world are seeking ways to protect vulnerable older populations. Although these conditions may increase nursing home admission (NHA) rates for older persons, we know of no studies that have directly tested this hypothesis. DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We analyzed data from long-term care insurance (LTCI) users in 3 Japanese prefectures that incurred heavy damage from the 2018 Japan Floods, which is the largest recorded flooding disaster in national history. Specifically, we extracted NHA data from the LTCI comprehensive database, both for disaster-affected and unaffected individuals. METHODS: We employed the Cox proportional hazards model to calculate multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for NHAs within a 6-month period following the 2018 Japan Floods, with adjustments for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Of the 187,861 individuals who used LTCI services during the investigated period, we identified 2156 (1.1%) as disaster affected. The HR for NHA was significantly higher for disaster-affected (vs unaffected) individuals (adjusted HR 3.23: 95% CI 2.88‒3.64), and also higher than the HRs for older age (90-94 years vs 65-69 years: 2.29, CI 1.93‒2.70), cognitive impairment (severe impairment vs normal: 1.40, CI 1.25‒1.57), and physical function (bedridden vs independent: 2.27, CI 1.83‒2.70). According to our subgroup analyses, the adjusted HR for disaster-affected individuals unable to feed themselves was 6.00 (CI 3.68‒9.79), with a significant interaction between the 2 variables (P = .01). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Natural disasters increase the risk of NHA for older persons, especially those who are unable to feed themselves. Health care providers and policymakers should understand and prepare for this emerging risk factor.

Geographic distribution of family physicians in Japan and the USA: a cross-sectional comparative study.

INTRODUCTION: Solutions for geographic maldistribution of physicians is challenging around the world, but primary care specialists are expected to resolve this issue. This study compares the geographic distribution of family physicians in Japan and the USA, both of which are developed countries without a major system for physician allocation by the public sector; however, the two countries differ greatly in the maturity of family medicine (ie length of its history as part of the healthcare system and the population of qualified family medicine experts). METHODS: This cross-sectional comparative study used publicly available online databases for Japan in 2018 and 2017 in the USA. The municipalities in Japan and counties in the USA were divided into quintile groups according to population density. The number of family physicians per unit population in each group of areas was calculated, and was evaluated with a residual analysis. The geographic distribution of all physicians in Japan was simulated assuming that the proportion of family physicians among all physicians in Japan (0.16%) was increased to match that in the USA (11.8%). RESULTS: Of 320 084 physicians in Japan and 899 244 in the USA, 519 (77.2%) family physicians in Japan and 105 999 (100%) in the USA were included. The distribution of family physicians in Japan was noticeably shifted to areas with the lowest population density. In contrast, family physicians in the USA were distributed equally across areas. The distribution of physicians of other specialties (general internists, pediatricians, surgeons and obstetricians/gynecologists) was shifted heavily to areas with the highest population densities in both countries. The simulation analysis showed the geographic maldistribution of the total number of physicians improved substantially if the proportion of family physicians in Japan is increased to match that in the USA. CONCLUSION: The distribution of family physicians is more equitable than that of other medical specialists; however, an immature family medicine system can lead to an aggregation of family physicians in rural areas. This aggregation supports equity due to the broader scope of practice required by family physicians in rural areas. In countries where family medicine has not yet matured as a specialty, provided that the equitable aggregation of family physicians in rural areas can be maintained, increasing the number of family physicians as a proportion of the total number of physicians may improve the geographic maldistribution of the total number of physicians.

Increased prescriptions for irritable bowel syndrome after the 2018 Japan Floods: a longitudinal analysis based on the Japanese National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups.

BACKGROUND: The frequency and intensity of natural disasters are increasing worldwide, which makes our understanding of disaster-related diseases more important than ever. Natural disasters cause mental stress and infectious diarrhea, but the causal relationship between disasters and a potential consequence of these conditions, irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), is unreported. The 2018 Japan Floods, which took place in July 2018 was one of the largest water disasters in Japan's recorded history. We investigate the change of drug prescriptions for IBS between disaster-suffers and non-sufferers throughout the disaster period to examine the relationship. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study based on the Japanese National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups in flood-stricken areas between July 2017 and June 2019. We included subjects older than 15 years of age who had visited a medical institution or been hospitalized in the hardest-hit areas of the disaster. Ramosetron, polycarbophil calcium, and mepenzolate bromide (IBS drugs) approved solely for the treatment of IBS in Japan were analyzed. The monthly rate of prescriptions for IBS drugs was compared between municipality-certified disaster victims and non-victims using a controlled interrupted time series analysis. For those who were not prescribed IBS drugs before the disaster (non-users), the occurrence of an IBS drug prescription after the disaster was evaluated using a multivariable logistic regression analysis adjusted for gender and age. RESULTS: Of 5,287,888 people enrolled, 32,499 (0.61%) were certified victims. The prescription rate for IBS drugs among victims increased significantly by 128% immediately after the disaster, while it was stable among non-victims. The trend for the post-disaster prescription rate among victims moved upward significantly when compared to non-victims (0.01% per month; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.004-0.015; P = 0.001). Among non-users, the occurrence of an IBS drug prescription for victims was 0.71% and was significantly higher than non-victims (0.35%, adjusted odds ratio 2.05; 95% CI 1.81-2.32). CONCLUSIONS: The 2018 Japan Floods increased the rate of prescriptions for IBS drugs, suggesting that the disaster caused or worsened IBS among victims.

Impact of the 2018 Japan Floods on benzodiazepine use: a longitudinal analysis based on the National Database of Health Insurance Claims.

PURPOSE: Natural disaster has an impact on mental health. The 2018 Japan Floods, which took place in July 2018 were one of the largest water disasters in Japan's recorded history. We aimed to evaluate the change in the number of benzodiazepine prescriptions by physicians before and after the disaster. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study based on the National Database of Health Insurance Claims was conducted in the flood-stricken areas between July 2017 and June 2019. The subjects were divided between victims and non-victims according to certification by local governments. Members of both groups were then categorized into three groups based on their pre-flood use of benzodiazepines: non-user, occasional user, and continuous user. Difference-in-differences (DID) analysis with a logistic regression model was conducted to estimate the effect of the disaster among victims by comparing the occurrence of benzodiazepine prescriptions before and after the disaster. RESULTS: Of 5,000,129 people enrolled, 31,235 were victims. Among all participants, the mean prescription rate for benzodiazepines in victims before the disaster (11.3%) increased to 11.8% after the disaster, while that in non-victims (8.3%) decreased to 7.9%. The DID analysis revealed that benzodiazepine prescription among victims significantly increased immediately after the disaster (adjusted ratio of odds ratios (ROR) 1.07: 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.11), and the effect of the disaster persisted even 1 year after the disaster (adjusted ROR 1.2: 95% confidence interval 1.16-1.24). CONCLUSION: The flood increased the number of benzodiazepines prescriptions among victims, and the effect persisted for at least 1 year.

Impact of the 2018 Japan Floods on prescriptions for migraine: A longitudinal analysis using the National Database of Health Insurance Claims.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of the 2018 Japan Floods, one of the largest water disasters in Japan, on the number of prescriptions for triptans and ergotamine (acute treatment). BACKGROUND: Natural disasters frequently occur worldwide and may cause psychological stress-related diseases. Acute migraine attacks can be triggered by psychological stress. Disaster victims are likely to experience tremendous psychological stress; however, the relationship between natural disasters and migraine attacks is not well investigated. METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal cohort study was conducted using the National Database of Health Insurance Claims in the hardest-hit areas of the disaster 1 year before and after the disaster. We included people between the ages of 15 and 64 years. Those who had a victim code that was certificated by a local government were assigned to the victim group, and others to the nonvictim group. For those who were not prescribed acute treatment before the disaster (i.e., group without previous acute treatment), the cumulative incidence of new prescriptions for acute treatment at 12 months of follow-up was calculated and compared between victims and nonvictims with survival analysis. RESULTS: Of 3,475,515 people aged 15 to 64 years enrolled in the study, 16,103 (0.46%) were assigned to the victim group. In the group without previous acute treatment, 111 (0.70%) of 15,933 victims and 14,626 (0.43%) of 3,431,423 nonvictims were newly prescribed acute treatment after the disaster, and new prescriptions for acute treatment were significantly more likely to occur in victims than in nonvictims (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.39-2.02). CONCLUSIONS: The 2018 Japan Floods increased the number of prescriptions for acute migraine medications among victims, suggesting that acute migraine attacks occurred more frequently after a natural disaster.

Discontinuation of long-term care among persons affected by the 2018 Japan Floods: a longitudinal study using the Long-term Care Insurance Comprehensive Database.

BACKGROUND: Most older people with disabilities or illnesses continue to use long-term care (LTC) services for the rest of their lives. However, disasters can cause a discontinuation of LTC services, which usually means tragic outcomes of affected persons. In view of the recent progression of population aging and the increase in natural disasters, this study focuses on the impact of disasters on older people's discontinuation of LTC services, and those more risk of such discontinuation than others. However, current evidence is scarce. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study with 259,081 subjects, 2,762 of whom had been affected by disaster and 256,319 who had not been affected during the 2018 Japan Floods. The sample in the three most disaster-affected prefectures was drawn from the Long-term Care Insurance Comprehensive Database and included older people certified with care-need level. The observation period was two months before the disaster and five months after it. We calculated the hazard ratio (HR) of municipality-certified subjects affected by the disaster versus those who were not. Subgroup analyses were conducted for categories of individual-, facility- and region-associated factors. RESULTS: Affected persons were twice as likely to discontinue LTC services than those who were not affected (adjusted HR, 2.06 95% CI, 1.91-2.23). 34% of affected persons whose facilities were closed discontinued their LTC services at five months after the disaster. A subgroup analysis showed that the risk of discontinuing LTC services for affected persons compared to those who were not affected in the relatively younger subgroup (age < 80: adjusted HR, 2.55; 95% CI, 2.20-2.96 vs. age ≥ 80 : 1.91; 1.75-2.10), and the subgroup requiring a lower level of care (low: 3.16; 2.74-3.66 vs. high: 1.71; 1.50-1.96) were more likely to discontinue than the older and higher care level subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: A natural disaster has a significant effect on the older people's discontinuation of LTC services. The discontinuations are supposedly caused by affected persons' death, hospitalization, forced relocation of individuals, or the service provider's incapacity. Accordingly, it is important to recognize the risk of disasters and take measures to avoid discontinuation to protect older persons' quality of life.

Effects of the 2018 Japan Floods on long-term care insurance costs in Japan: retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of torrential rains and floods around the world. Estimating the costs of these disasters is one of the five global research priorities identified by WHO. The 2018 Japan Floods hit western Japan causing extensive destruction and many deaths, especially among vulnerable elderly. Such affected elderly would need long-term care due to the various health problems caused by the disaster. A Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) system provides care services in Japan. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on LTCI costs and service utilization. METHODS: The participants of this retrospective cohort study were all verified persons utilizing LTCI services in Hiroshima, Okayama and Ehime prefectures. The observation period was from 2 months before to 6 months after the disaster. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to examine the association between disaster status (victims or non-victims) and the monthly total costs of LTCI service (with gamma-distribution/log-link) by residential environment (home or facility). Among home residents, we also examined each service utilization (home-based service, short-stay service and facility service), using the GEEs. After the GEEs, we estimated Average Marginal Effects (AME) over all observation periods by months as the attributable disaster effect. RESULTS: The total number of participants was 279,578. There were 3024 flood victims. The disaster was associated with significantly higher total costs. The AME for home residents at 2 months after was $214 (Standard Error (SE): 12, p < 0.001), which was the highest through the observation period. Among facility residents, the AME immediately after the disaster increased by up to $850 (SE: 29, p < 0.001). The service utilization among home residents showed a different trend for each service. The AME of home-based services decreased by up to - 15.2% (SE:1.3, p < 0.001). The AME for short-stay service increased by up to 8.2% (SE: 0.9, p < 0.001) and the AME for facility service increased by up to 7.4% (SE: 0.7, p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 2018 Japan Floods caused an increase in LTCI costs and the utilization of short-stay and facility services, and a decrease in utilization of home-based services.

The effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on cognitive decline among long-term care insurance users in Japan: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The July 2018 Japan Floods caused enormous damage to western Japan. Such disasters can especially impact elderly persons. Research has shown that natural disasters exacerbated a decline in cognitive function, but to date, there have been no studies examining the effects of this disaster on the elderly. The object of this study was to reveal the effect of this disaster in terms of cognitive decline among the elderly. METHODS: Study participants were certified users of the long-term care insurance (LTCI) system in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures from May 2018 to June 2018. The observation period was from July 2018 to December 2018. Our primary outcome was cognitive decline after the disaster using a dementia symptomatology assessment. In addition to a crude model, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the cognitive decline of victims, adjusting for age classification, gender, the level of dementia scale before the disaster occurred, residential environment, whether a participant used facilities shut down after the disaster, and population density. After we confirmed that the interaction term between victims and residential environment was statistically significant, we stratified them for the analysis. RESULTS: The total number of participants was 264,614. Victims accounted for 1.10% of the total participants (n = 2,908). For the Cox proportional hazards model, the hazard ratio of the victims was 1.18 (95% confidential interval (CI): 1.05-1.32) in the crude model and 1.12 (95% CI: 1.00-1.26) in the adjusted model. After being stratified by residential environment, the hazard ratio of home victims was 1.20 (95% CI: 1.06-1.36) and the hazard ratio of facility victims was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.67-1.17). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that elderly living at home during the 2018 Japan Floods were at risk for cognitive decline. Medical providers, care providers, and local governments should establish a system to check on the cognitive function of elderly victims and provide necessary care support.

Emigration of regional quota graduates of Japanese medical schools to non-designated prefectures: a prospective nationwide cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the retention of regional quota graduates of Japanese medical schools and prefecture scholarship recipients within their designated prefectures where they are obliged or expected to work and revealed the personal and regional characteristics associated with their emigration to non-designated prefectures. Regional quota and prefecture scholarship are two of the most ambitious policies ever conducted in Japan for recruiting physicians to practice in rural areas. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Nationwide. PARTICIPANTS: Regional quota graduates with prefecture scholarship, quota graduates without scholarship and non-quota graduates with scholarship of Japanese medical schools who obtained their physician license between 2014 and 2016. PRIMARY OUTCOME: The emigration in 2016 of the participants from the designated prefectures. RESULTS: Total participants were 991 physicians, three of whom were excluded due to the missing values of crucial items, leaving 988 participants for analysis (quota with scholarship 387, quota alone 358 and scholarship alone 243). The percentage of those who emigrated was 11.9% (118/988). The mean (±SD) proportion of subjects who emigrated was 11.7% (±10.3) among all prefectures and the proportion varies widely among prefectures (0%-44.4%). Multilevel logistic regression analysis showed those who received prefecture scholarship (OR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08 to 0.67) and whose designated prefecture has an ordinance-designated city (ie, large city) were less likely to emigrate (OR 0.47; 95% CI 0.24 to 0.90). In contrast, graduates from a medical school outside the designated prefecture (OR 4.20; 95% CI 2.20 to 7.67) and who have a right to postpone their obligatory service (OR 3.42; 95% CI 1.52 to 7.67) were more likely to emigrate. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of regional quota graduates and prefecture scholarship recipients emigrated to non-designated prefectures. Emigrations should be reduced by improving the potential facilitators for emigration such as discordance in location between medical school and designated prefecture.

Geographic Distribution of Regional Quota Program Graduates of Japanese Medical Schools: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: To show the practice location of graduates from two Japanese programs recruiting physicians to rural areas: a regional quota program of medical schools and a prefecture scholarship program (a prefecture is an administrative geographic division). Graduates of each program must work in a designated rural prefecture for a fixed period. METHOD: A nationwide cohort study was conducted for three groups of participants graduating between 2014 and 2016: quota graduates without scholarship (quota alone), nonquota graduates with scholarship (scholarship alone), and quota graduates with scholarship. A questionnaire was sent via medical school or prefecture office to each potential subject to collect baseline individual data, including home prefecture and graduation year. Data were connected through physician identification number to the Physician Census 2016 of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare to identify the subjects' practice location and compared with data for other physicians in the census. Comparisons were conducted with Mann-Whitney and chi-square tests. RESULTS: The proportion of physicians working in nonmetropolitan municipalities for quota alone (185/244; 75.8%), scholarship alone (305/363; 84.0%), and quota with scholarship (341/384; 88.8%) was significantly higher than for other physicians (13,299/22,906; 58.1%). Median population density of the municipalities where subjects worked for quota alone (1,042.4 persons per square kilometer), scholarship alone (613.5), and quota with scholarship (547.4) was significantly lower than that for other physicians (3,214.0). These disparities increased with number of years since graduation. CONCLUSIONS: The regional quota and prefecture scholarship programs succeeded in producing physicians who practiced in rural areas of Japan.

Results of physician licence examination and scholarship contract compliance by the graduates of regional quotas in Japanese medical schools: a nationwide cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVES: Responding to the serious shortage of physicians in rural areas, the Japanese government has aggressively increased the number of entrants to medical schools since 2008, mostly as a chiikiwaku, entrants filling a regional quota. The quota has spread to most medical schools, and these entrants occupied 16% of all medical school seats in 2016. Most of these entrants were admitted to medical school with a scholarship with the understanding that after graduation they will practise in designated areas of their home prefectures for several years. The quota and scholarship programmes will be revised by the government starting in 2018. This study evaluates the intermediate outcomes of these programmes. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey to all prefectural governments and medical schools every year from 2014 to 2017 to obtain data on medical graduates. SETTINGS: Nationwide. PARTICIPANTS: All quota and non-quota graduates with prefecture scholarship in each prefecture, and all the quota graduates without scholarship in each medical school. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Passing rate of the National License Examination for Physicians and the percentage of graduates who have not bought out the scholarship contract after graduation. RESULTS: Most prefectures and medical schools in Japan participated in this study (97.8%-100%). Quota graduates with scholarship were significantly more likely to pass the National License Examination for Physicians than the other medical graduates in Japan at all the years (97.9%, 96.7%, 97.4% and 94.7% vs 93.9%, 94.5%, 94.3% and 91.8%, respectively). The percentage of quota graduates with scholarship who remained in the scholarship contract 3 years after graduation was 92.2% and 89.9% for non-quota graduates with scholarship. CONCLUSIONS: Quota entrants showed better academic performance than their peers. Most of the quota graduates remained in the contractual workforce. The imminent revision of the national policy regarding quota and scholarship programmes needs to be based on this evidence.

Geographic Distribution of Radiologists and Utilization of Teleradiology in Japan: A Longitudinal Analysis Based on National Census Data.

BACKGROUND: Japan has the most CT and MRI scanners per unit population in the world, and as these technologies spread, their geographic distribution is becoming equalized. In contrast, the number of radiologists per unit population in Japan is the lowest among OECD countries and their geographic distribution is unknown. Likewise, little is known about the use of teleradiology, which can compensate for the uneven distribution of radiologists. METHODS: Based on the Survey of Physicians, Dentists and Pharmacists and the Static Survey of Medical Institutions by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, a dataset of radiologists and CT and MRI utilizations in each of Japan's 1811 municipalities was created. The inter-municipality equity of the number of radiologists was evaluated using Gini coefficient. Logistic regression analysis, based on Static Survey data, was performed to evaluate the association between hospital location and teleradiology use. RESULTS: Between 2006 and 2012 the number of radiologists increased by 21.7%, but the Gini coefficient remained unchanged. The number of radiologists per 1,000 CT (MRI) utilizations decreased by 17.9% (1.0%); the number was highest in metropolis and lowest in town/village and the disparity has widened from 1.9 to 2.2 (1.6 to 2.0) times. The number of hospitals and clinics using teleradiology has increased (by 69.6% and 18.1%, respectively). Hospitals located in towns/villages (odds ratio 1.61; 95% confidence interval 1.26-2.07) were more likely to use teleradiology than those in metropolises. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to the CT and MRI distributions, radiologist distribution has not been evened out by the increase in their number; in other words, the distribution of radiologists was not affected by market-derived spatial competition force. As a consequence, the gap of the radiologist shortage between urban and rural areas is increasing. Teleradiology, which is one way to ameliorate this gap, should be encouraged.

Health Impact Assessment of PM10 and PM2.5 in 27 Southeast and East Asian Cities.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate the annual health impacts of particulate matter (PM) less than 10 µm diameter (PM10) and less than 2.5-µm diameter (PM2.5) in 27 cities in Southeast and East Asian countries (Japan, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Vietnam) for the year 2009 (n = 50,756,699). METHODS: We estimated the number of cases attributable to long-term exposure. We used a scenario that reduced the annual mean values for PM10 and PM2.5 to 20 and 10 µg/m, respectively. RESULTS: A reduction in long-term exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 would have postponed 8% to 9% of all-cause mortality or about 37,000 deaths. One third of them were associated with cardiopulmonary mortality and one ninth of them were associated with lung cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Current air pollution levels in Southeast and East Asian countries have a nonnegligible public health impact.

Geographic Distribution of CT, MRI and PET Devices in Japan: A Longitudinal Analysis Based on National Census Data.

BACKGROUND: Japan has the most CT and MRI scanners per unit population in the world; however, the geographic distribution of these technologies is currently unknown. Moreover, nothing is known of the cause-effect relationship between the number of diagnostic imaging devices and their geographic distribution. METHODS: Data on the number of CT, MRI and PET devices and that of their utilizations in all 1829 municipalities of Japan was generated, based on the Static Survey of Medical Institutions conducted by the government. The inter-municipality equity of the number of devices or utilizations was evaluated with Gini coefficient. RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2011, the number of CT, MRI and PET devices in Japan increased by 47% (8789 to 12945), 19% (5034 to 5990) and 70% (274 to 466), respectively. Gini coefficient of the number of devices was largest for PET and smallest for CT (p for PET-MRI difference <0.001; MRI-CT difference <0.001). For all three modalities, Gini coefficient steadily decreased (p for 2011-2005 difference: <0.001 for CT; 0.003 for MRI; and <0.001 for PET). The number of devices in old models (single-detector CT, MRI<1.5 tesla, and conventional PET) decreased, while that in new models (multi-detector CT, MRI≥1.5 tesla, and PET-CT) increased. Gini coefficient of the old models increased or remained unchanged (increase rate of 9%, 3%, and -1%; p for 2011-2008 difference <0.001, 0.072, and 0.562, respectively), while Gini coefficient of the new models decreased (-10%, -9%, and -10%; p for 2011-2008 difference <0.001, <0.001, and <0.001 respectively). Similar results were observed in terms of utilizations. CONCLUSIONS: The more abundant a modality, the more equal the modality's distribution. Any increase in the modality made its distribution more equal. The geographic distribution of the diagnostic imaging technology in Japan appears to be affected by spatial competition derived from a market force.

Selection and concentration of obstetric facilities in Japan: Longitudinal study based on national census data.

AIM: A shortage of obstetricians with increased workload is a social problem in Japan. In response, the government and professional bodies have accelerated the 'selection and concentration' of obstetric facilities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the recent trend of selection and concentration. METHODS: We used data on the number of deliveries and of obstetricians in each hospital and clinic in Japan, according to the Static Survey of Medical Institutions in 2005, 2008 and 2011. To evaluate the inter-facility equality of distribution of the number of deliveries, number of obstetricians and number of deliveries per obstetrician, Gini coefficients were calculated. RESULTS: The number of obstetric hospitals decreased by 20% and the number of deliveries per hospital increased by 26% between 2005 and 2011. Hospital obstetricians increased by 16% and the average number of obstetricians per hospital increased by 19% between 2008 and 2011. Gini coefficient of deliveries has significantly decreased. In contrast, Gini coefficient of deliveries per obstetrician has significantly increased. The degree of increase in obstetricians and of decrease in deliveries per obstetrician was largest at the hospitals with the highest proportion of cesarean sections. The proportion of obstetric hospitals with the optimal volume of deliveries and obstetricians, as defined by Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology, was 4% in 2008, and it had doubled to 8.1% 3 years later. CONCLUSION: The selection and concentration of obstetric facilities is progressing rapidly and effectively in Japan.

Prefecture-level economic conditions and risk of suicide in Japan: a repeated cross-sectional analysis 1975-2010.

BACKGROUND: Geographical inequalities in suicide have risen dramatically across 47 prefectures in Japan since 1995. We sought to examine temporal changes in the associations between prefecture-level economic conditions and completed suicide during the recent 35 years, controlling for individual composition in each prefecture. METHODS: Based on quinquennial vital statistics and census data from 1975 to 2010, we analysed the entire population aged 25-64 years. The total number of suicides was 87 553 men and 34 559 women. As indicators of prefecture-level economic conditions, we used average yearly income, average savings and income inequality (measured by Gini coefficients for yearly income). For each sex, we estimated odds ratios and 95% credible intervals for suicide using multilevel logistic regression models, with cells at level 1, years at level 2 and prefectures at level 3. RESULTS: Even after adjusting for individual age, occupation and time trends, low average savings at prefecture level were associated with a higher risk of suicide among men (odds ratio in low vs. high savings: 1.13, 95% credible interval: 1.05-1.21), whereas no clear patterns were observed with other economic indicators. When we further examined the associations in year-specific models by conducting a two-level analysis, both average yearly income and average savings were inversely associated with suicide risk in recent years. No clear association was found between income inequality and suicide risk for either sex. CONCLUSION: The present findings suggest that low area socioeconomic status may be driving the growing geographical inequalities in suicide in Japan, primarily among men.

Do non-glycaemic markers add value to plasma glucose and hemoglobin a1c in predicting diabetes? Yuport health checkup center study.

BACKGROUND: Many markers have been indicated as predictors of type 2 diabetes. However, the question of whether or not non-glycaemic (blood) biomarkers and non-blood biomarkers have a predictive additive utility when combined with glycaemic (blood) biomarkers is unknown. The study aim is to assess this additive utility in a large Japanese population. METHODS: We used data from a retrospective cohort study conducted from 1998 to 2002 for the baseline and 2002 to 2006 for follow-up, inclusive of 5,142 men (mean age of 51.9 years) and 4,847 women (54.1 years) at baseline. The cumulative incidence of diabetes [defined either as a fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.00 mmol/l or as clinically diagnosed diabetes] was measured. In addition to glycaemic biomarkers [FPG and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)], we examined the clinical usefulness of adding non-glycaemic biomarkers and non-blood biomarkers, using sensitivity and specificity, and the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics. RESULTS: The AUCs to predict diabetes were 0.874 and 0.924 for FPG, 0.793 and 0.822 for HbA1c, in men and women, respectively. Glycaemic biomarkers were the best and second-best for diabetes prediction among the markers. All non-glycaemic markers (except uric acid in men and creatinine in both sexes) predicted diabetes. Among these biomarkers, the highest AUC in the single-marker analysis was 0.656 for alanine aminotransferase (ALT) in men and 0.740 for body mass index in women. The AUC of the combined markers of FPG and HbA1c was 0.895 in men and 0.938 in women, which were marginally increased to 0.904 and 0.940 when adding ALT, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: AUC increments were marginal when adding non-glycaemic biomarkers and non-blood biomarkers to the classic model based on FPG and HbA1c. For the prediction of diabetes, FPG and HbA1c are sufficient and the other markers may not be needed in clinical practice.

Social and geographical inequalities in suicide in Japan from 1975 through 2005: a census-based longitudinal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite advances in our understanding of the countercyclical association between economic contraction and suicide, less is known about the levels of and changes in inequalities in suicide. The authors examined social and geographical inequalities in suicide in Japan from 1975 through 2005. METHODS: Based on quinquennial vital statistics and census data, the authors analyzed the entire population aged 25-64 years. The total number of suicides was 75,840 men and 30,487 women. For each sex, the authors estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% credible intervals (CIs) for suicide using multilevel logistic regression models with "cells" (cross-tabulated by age and occupation) at level 1, seven different years at level 2, and 47 prefectures at level 3. Prefecture-level variance was used as an estimate of geographical inequalities in suicide. RESULTS: Adjusting for age and time-trends, the lowest odds for suicide was observed among production process and related workers (the reference group) in both sexes. The highest OR for men was 2.52 (95% CI: 2.43, 2.61) among service workers, whereas the highest OR for women was 9.24 (95% CI: 7.03, 12.13) among security workers. The degree of occupational inequalities increased among men with a striking change in the pattern. Among women, we observed a steady decline in suicide risk across all occupations, except for administrative and managerial workers and transport and communication workers. After adjusting for individual age, occupation, and time-trends, prefecture-specific ORs ranged from 0.76 (Nara Prefecture) to 1.36 (Akita Prefecture) for men and from 0.79 (Kanagawa Prefecture) to 1.22 (Akita Prefecture) for women. Geographical inequalities have increased primarily among men since 1995. CONCLUSIONS: The present findings demonstrate a striking temporal change in the pattern of social inequalities in suicide among men. Further, geographical inequalities in suicide have considerably increased across 47 prefectures, primarily among men, since 1995.