The need for integrated clinical and administrative data models for risk adjustment in assessment of the cost transplant care.

INTRODUCTION: Value-based purchasing requires accurate techniques to appropriately measure both outcomes and cost with robust adjustment for differences in severity of illness. Traditional methods to adjust cost estimates have exclusively used administrative data derived from billing claims to identify comorbidity and complications. Transplantation uniquely has accurate national clinical registry data that can be used to supplement administrative data. METHODS: Administrative claims from the Vizient, Inc, Clinical Data Base (CDB) were linked with clinical records from the Scientific Registry for Transplant Recipients for 76 liver and 109 kidney transplant programs. Using either or both datasets, we fitted a regression model to the total direct cost of care for 16,649 kidney and 6058 liver transplants. RESULTS: The proportion of variation explained by these risk-adjustment models increased significantly when combined administrative and clinical data were used for kidney (administrative only R2 = .069, clinical only R2 = .047, combined R2 = .14, p < .0001) and liver (administrative only R2 = .28, clinical only R2 = .25, combined R2 = .33, p < .0001). CONCLUSION: Incorporating accurate clinical data into risk-adjustment methodologies can improve risk adjustment methodologies; however, as majority of variation in cost remains unexplained by these risk-adjustment models further work is needed to accuracy assess transplant value.

Incidence, Clinical Correlates, and Outcomes of Pulmonary Hypertension After Kidney Transplantation: Analysis of Linked US Registry and Medicare Billing Claims.

BACKGROUND: The incidence, risks, and outcomes associated with pulmonary hypertension (P-HTN) in the kidney transplant (KTx) population are not well described. METHODS: We linked US transplant registry data with Medicare claims (2006-2016) to investigate P-HTN diagnoses among Medicare-insured KTx recipients (N = 35 512) using billing claims. Cox regression was applied to identify independent correlates and outcomes of P-HTN (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 95%LCLaHR95%UCL) and to examine P-HTN diagnoses as time-dependent mortality predictors. RESULTS: Overall, 8.2% of recipients had a diagnostic code for P-HTN within 2 y preceding transplant. By 3 y posttransplant, P-HTN was diagnosed in 10.310.6%11.0 of the study cohort. After adjustment, posttransplant P-HTN was more likely in KTx recipients who were older (age ≥60 versus 18-30 y a HR, 1.912.403.01) or female (aHR, 1.151.241.34), who had pretransplant P-HTN (aHR, 4.384.795.24), coronary artery disease (aHR, 1.051.151.27), valvular heart disease (aHR, 1.221.321.43), peripheral vascular disease (aHR, 1.051.181.33), chronic pulmonary disease (aHR, 1.201.311.43), obstructive sleep apnea (aHR, 1.151.281.43), longer dialysis duration, pretransplant hemodialysis (aHR, 1.171.371.59), or who underwent transplant in the more recent era (2012-2016 versus 2006-2011: aHR, 1.291.391.51). Posttransplant P-HTN was associated with >2.5-fold increased risk of mortality (aHR, 2.572.843.14) and all-cause graft failure (aHR, 2.422.642.88) within 3 y posttransplant. Outcome associations of newly diagnosed posttransplant P-HTN were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Posttransplant P-HTN is diagnosed in 1 in 10 KTx recipients and is associated with an increased risk of death and graft failure. Future research is needed to refine diagnostic, classification, and management strategies to improve outcomes in KTx recipients who develop P-HTN.

Cost, healthcare utilization, and outcomes of antibody-mediated rejection in kidney transplant recipients in the US.

BACKGROUND: Antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) is one of the leading causes of graft loss in kidney transplant recipients but little is known about the associated cost and healthcare burden of AMR. METHODS: We developed an algorithm to detect AMR using the 2006-2011 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) using ICD-10 and billing codes as there is no specific ICD-10 or procedure code for AMR. We then compared healthcare utilization, cost, and risk of graft failure or death in AMR. patients versus matched controls. RESULTS: The algorithm had a 39.4% true-positive rate (69/175) and a 4.1% false-positive rate (110/2,655). We identified 5,679/101,554 (5.6%) with AMR, who had a nearly 3-fold higher risk of graft failure (hazard ratio [HR], 2.75, 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.50 to 3.03; p < .0001) and death (HR, 2.59; 95% CI, 2.35 to 2.86; p < .0001) at 2 years, nearly 5 times the hospitalizations in the 60 d before AMR diagnosis, and increased nephrology and emergency department visits. Mean AMR attributable healthcare costs were 4 times higher than matched controls, at $13,066 more per patient in the 60 d before AMR diagnosis and $35,740 per patient per year higher in the 2 years after AMR diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: US kidney transplant recipients with AMR have substantially greater healthcare utilization and higher costs and risk of graft loss and mortality.

Hydroxychloroquine and maintenance immunosuppression use in kidney transplant recipients: Analysis of linked US registry and claims data.

Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is an antimalarial drug with immunomodulatory effects used to treat systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and scleroderma. The antiviral effects of HCQ have raised attention in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, although safety is controversial. We examined linkages of national transplant registry data with pharmaceutical claims and Medicare billing claims to study HCQ use among Medicare-insured kidney transplant recipients with SLE or scleroderma (2008-2017; N = 1820). We compared three groups based on immunosuppression regimen 7 months-to-1 year post transplant: (a) tacrolimus (Tac) + mycophenolic acid (MPA) + prednisone (Pred) (referent group, 77.7%); (b) Tac + MPA + Pred + HCQ (16.5%); or (c) other immunosuppression + HCQ (5.7%). Compared to the referent group, recipients treated with other immunosuppression + HCQ had a 2-fold increased risk of abnormal ECG or QT prolongation (18.9% vs. 10.7%; aHR,1.12 1.963.42 , p = .02) and ventricular arrhythmias (15.2% vs. 11.4%; aHR,1.00 1.813.29 , p = .05) in the >1-to-3 years post-transplant. Tac + MPA + Pred + HCQ was associated with increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias (13.5% vs. 11.4%; aHR,1.02 1.542.31 , p = .04) and pancytopenia (35.9% vs. 31.4%; aHR,1.03 1.311.68 , p = .03) compared to triple immunosuppression without HCQ. However, HCQ-containing regimens were not associated with an increased risk of death or graft failure. HCQ may be used safely in selected kidney transplant recipients in addition to their maintenance immunosuppression, although attention to arrhythmias is warranted.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services' proposed metrics for recertification of organ procurement organizations: Evaluation by the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients.

On December 23, 2019, the US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services proposed 2 new standards that organ procurement organizations (OPOs) must meet for recertification. An OPO's organ donation rate (deceased donors/potential donors) and organ transplant rate (organs transplanted/potential donors) must not fall significantly below the 75th percentile for rates among all OPOs. We examined how OPOs would have fared under the proposed performance standards in 2016-2017. Data on donors and transplants were from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network; donor potential was estimated from Detailed Multiple Cause of Death data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 2017, 31 (53%) OPOs failed to meet the proposed donation rate standard, 36 (62%) failed to meet the proposed organ transplant rate standard, and 37 (64%) failed at least 1 standard. We found that adjusting for age, race, and Hispanic ethnicity altered the evaluation: 8 OPOs changed their pass/fail status for the donation rate and 5 for the proposed organ transplant rate standard. We conclude that the proposed new standards may result in over half of OPOs facing decertification, and risk adjustment suggests that underlying characteristics of deaths vary regionally such that decertification decisions may be affected.

The economic burden of kidney graft failure in the United States.

Despite improvements in outcomes for kidney transplant recipients in the past decade, graft failure continues to impose substantial burden on patients. However, the population-wide economic burden of graft failure has not been quantified. This study aims to fill that gap by comparing outcomes from a simulation model of kidney transplant patients in which patients are at risk for graft failure with an alternative simulation in which the risk of graft failure is assumed to be zero. Transitions through the model were estimated using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients data from 1987 to 2017. We estimated lifetime costs, overall survival, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for both scenarios and calculated the difference between them to obtain the burden of graft failure. We find that for the average patient, graft failure will impose additional medical costs of $78 079 (95% confidence interval [CI] $41 074, $112 409) and a loss of 1.66 QALYs (95% CI 1.15, 2.18). Given 17 644 kidney transplants in 2017, the total incremental lifetime medical costs associated with graft failure is $1.38B (95% CI $725M, $1.98B) and the total QALY loss is 29 289 (95% CI 20 291, 38 464). Efforts to reduce the incidence of graft failure or to mitigate its impact are urgently needed.

Economic impacts of alternative kidney transplant immunosuppression: A national cohort study.

Understanding the economic implications of induction and maintenance immunosuppression (ISx) is important in developing personalized kidney transplant (KTx) care. Using data from a novel integrated data set including financial records from the University Health System Consortium, Medicare, and pharmacy claims (2007-2014), we estimated the differences in the impact of induction and maintenance ISx regimens on transplant hospitalization costs and Medicare payments from KTx to 3 years. Use of thymoglobulin (TMG) significantly increased transplant hospitalization costs ($12 006; P = .02), compared with alemtuzumab and basiliximab. TMG resulted in lower Medicare payments in posttransplant years 1 (-$2058; P = .05) and 2 (-$1784; P = .048). Patients on steroid-sparing ISx incurred relatively lower total Medicare spending (-$10 880; P = .01) compared with patients on triple therapy (tacrolimus, antimetabolite, and steroids). MPA/AZA-sparing, mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors-based, and cyclosporine-based maintenance ISx regimens were associated with significantly higher payments. Alternative ISx regimens were associated with different KTx hospitalization costs and longer-term payments. Future studies of clinical efficacy should also consider cost impacts to define the economic effectiveness of alternative ISx regimens.

Lifetime benefits of early detection and treatment of diabetic kidney disease.

OBJECTIVES: Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a frequent complication of diabetes with potentially devastating consequences that may be prevented or delayed. This study aimed to estimate the health and economic benefit of earlier diagnosis and treatment of DKD. METHODS: Life expectancy and medical spending for people with diabetes were modeled using The Health Economics Medical Innovation Simulation (THEMIS). THEMIS uses data from the Health and Retirement Study to model cohorts of individuals over age 50 to project population-level lifetime health and economic outcomes. DKD status was imputed based on diagnoses and laboratory values in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We simulated the implementation of a new biomarker identifying people with diabetes at an elevated risk of DKD and DKD patients at risk of rapid progression. RESULTS: Compared to baseline, the prevalence of DKD declined 5.1% with a novel prognostic biomarker test, while the prevalence of diabetes with stage 5 chronic kidney disease declined 3.0%. Consequently, people with diabetes gained 0.2 years in life expectancy, while per-capita annual medical spending fell by 0.3%. The estimated cost was $12,796 per life-year gained and $25,842 per quality-adjusted life-year. CONCLUSIONS: A biomarker test that allows earlier treatment reduces DKD prevalence and slows DKD progression, thereby increasing life expectancy among people with diabetes while raising healthcare spending by less than one percent.

The association between loss of Medicare, immunosuppressive medication use, and kidney transplant outcomes.

Kidney transplant recipients aged <65 years qualify for Medicare coverage, but coverage ends 3 years posttransplant. We determined the association between timing of Medicare loss and immunosuppressive medication fills and kidney allograft loss. Using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR), US Renal Data System, and Symphony pharmacy fill database, we analyzed 78 861 Medicare-covered, kidney-alone recipients aged <65 years, and assessed the timing of Medicare loss posttransplant: early (<3 years), on-time (at 3 years), or late (>3 years). Immunosuppressant use was measured as medication possession ratio (MPR). Allograft loss was assessed using SRTR data. MPR was lower for recipients with early or late Medicare loss compared with no coverage loss for all immunosuppressive medication types. For calcineurin inhibitors, early Medicare loss was associated with a 53% to 86% lower MPR. On-time Medicare loss was not associated with a lower MPR. When recipients were matched by age, posttransplant timing of Medicare loss, and donor risk, the hazard of allograft loss was 990% to 1630% higher after early Medicare loss, and 140% to 740% higher after late Medicare loss, with no difference in the hazard for on-time Medicare loss. Ensuring ongoing Medicare access before and after 3 years posttransplant could affect graft survival.

How patients choose kidney transplant centers: A qualitative study of patient experiences.

Little is known about how patients make the critical decision of choosing a transplant center. In the United States, acceptance criteria, waiting times, and mortality vary significantly by geography and center. We sought to understand patients' experiences and perspectives when selecting transplant centers. We included 82 kidney transplant patients in 20 semi-structured interviews, nine focus groups with local candidates, and three focus groups with national recipients. Sites included two local transplant centers in Minneapolis, Minnesota, and national recipients from across the United States. Transcripts were analyzed by two researchers using a thematic analysis. Several themes emerged related to priorities and barriers when choosing a center. Patients were often unfamiliar with options, even with multiple local centers. Patients described being referred to a specific center by a trusted provider. Patients prioritized perceived reputation, comfort, and convenience. Insurance coverage was both a source of information and a barrier to options. Patients underestimated differences across centers and the effects on being waitlisted and receiving a transplant. Barriers in decision making included an overwhelming scope of information and difficulty locating information relevant to patients with unique medical needs. Informed decisions could be improved by the dissemination of understandable information better tailored to individual patient needs.

Cannabis Dependence or Abuse in Kidney Transplantation: Implications for Posttransplant Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Cannabis is categorized as an illicit drug in most US states, but legalization for medical indications is increasing. Policies and guidance on cannabis use in transplant patients remain controversial. METHODS: We examined a database linking national kidney transplant records (n = 52 689) with Medicare claims to identify diagnoses of cannabis dependence or abuse (CDOA) and associations [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) with 95% upper and lower confidence limits (CLs)] with graft, patient, and other clinical outcomes. RESULTS: CDOA was diagnosed in only 0.5% (n = 254) and 0.3% (n = 163) of kidney transplant recipients in the years before and after transplant, respectively. Patients with pretransplant CDOA were more likely to be 19 to 30 years of age and of black race, and less likely to be obese, college-educated, and employed. After multivariate and propensity adjustment, CDOA in the year before transplant was not associated with death or graft failure in the year after transplant, but was associated with posttransplant psychosocial problems such as alcohol abuse, other drug abuse, noncompliance, schizophrenia, and depression. Furthermore, CDOA in the first year posttransplant was associated with an approximately 2-fold increased risk of death-censored graft failure (aHR, 2.29; 95% CL, 1.59-3.32), all-cause graft loss (aHR, 2.09; 95% CL, 1.50-2.91), and death (aHR, 1.79; 95% CL, 1.06-3.04) in the subsequent 2 years. Posttransplant CDOA was also associated with cardiovascular, pulmonary, and psychosocial problems, and with events such as accidents and fractures. CONCLUSIONS: Although associations likely, in part, reflect associated conditions or behaviors, clinical diagnosis of CDOA in the year after transplant appears to have prognostic implications for allograft and patient outcomes. Recipients with posttransplant CDOA warrant focused monitoring and support.

Organ distribution without geographic boundaries: A possible framework for organ allocation.

The Final Rule mandates that organ allocation not be based on the transplant candidate's place of residence or listing, except as required by sound medical judgment and best use of donated organs, to avoid wasting organs and futile transplants, and to promote access and efficiency. Current Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) policies use donation service areas and OPTN regions to distribute and allocate organs for transplant. These policies have recently been called into question as not meeting the requirements of the Final Rule. Therefore, we propose using borderless allocation scores that combine medical priority scores with geographic feasibility scores. Medical priority scores are currently used in OPTN allocation policy, for example, the model for end-stage liver disease and the lung allocation score. Geographic feasibility scores can be developed to account for the effects of ischemia due to travel times, donor characteristics that modify the feasibility of traveling due to organ outcomes, and the costs of shipping organs over long distances. A borderless distribution and allocation system could address the goals of equity and utility, while fulfilling the mandates of the Final Rule and providing optimal use of a scare resource.

Heart and lung organ offer acceptance practices of transplant programs are associated with waitlist mortality and organ yield.

Variation in heart and lung offer acceptance practices may affect numbers of transplanted organs and create variability in waitlist mortality. To investigate these issues, offer acceptance ratios, or adjusted odds ratios, for heart and lung transplant programs individually and for all programs within donation service areas (DSAs) were estimated using offers from donors recovered July 1, 2016, and June 30, 2017. Logistic regressions estimated the association of DSA-level offer acceptance ratios with donor yield and local placement of organs recovered in the DSA. Competing risk methodology estimated the association of program-level offer acceptance ratios with incidence and rate of waitlist removals due to death or becoming too sick to undergo transplant. Higher DSA-level offer acceptance was associated with higher yield (odds ratios [ORs]: lung, 1.04 1.111.19 ; heart, 1.09 1.211.35 ) and more local placement of transplanted organs (ORs: lung, 1.01 1.121.24 ; heart, 1.47 1.691.93 ). Higher program-level offer acceptance was associated with lower incidence of waitlist removal due to death or becoming too sick to undergo transplant (hazard ratios [HRs]: heart, 0.80 0.860.93 ; lung, 0.67 0.750.83 ), but not with rate of waitlist removal (HRs: heart, 0.91 0.981.06 ; lung, 0.89 0.991.10 ). Heart and lung offer acceptance practices affected numbers of transplanted organs and contributed to program-level variability in the probability of waitlist mortality.

An economic assessment of contemporary kidney transplant practice.

Kidney transplantation is the optimal therapy for end-stage renal disease, prolonging survival and reducing spending. Prior economic analyses of kidney transplantation, using Markov models, have generally assumed compatible, low-risk donors. The economic implications of transplantation with high Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI) deceased donors, ABO incompatible living donors, and HLA incompatible living donors have not been assessed. The costs of transplantation and dialysis were compared with the use of discrete event simulation over a 10-year period, with data from the United States Renal Data System, University HealthSystem Consortium, and literature review. Graft failure rates and expenditures were adjusted for donor characteristics. All transplantation options were associated with improved survival compared with dialysis (transplantation: 5.20-6.34 quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] vs dialysis: 4.03 QALYs). Living donor and low-KDPI deceased donor transplantations were cost-saving compared with dialysis, while transplantations using high-KDPI deceased donor, ABO-incompatible or HLA-incompatible living donors were cost-effective (<$100 000 per QALY). Predicted costs per QALY range from $39 939 for HLA-compatible living donor transplantation to $80 486 for HLA-incompatible donors compared with $72 476 for dialysis. In conclusion, kidney transplantation is cost-effective across all donor types despite higher costs for marginal organs and innovative living donor practices.

Transplant recipients are vulnerable to coverage denial under Medicare Part D.

Transplant immunosuppressants are often used off-label because of insufficient randomized prospective trial data to achieve organ-specific US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval. Transplant recipients who rely on Medicare Part D for immunosuppressant drug coverage are vulnerable to coverage denial for off-label prescriptions, unless use is supported by Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)-approved compendia. An integrated dataset including national transplant registry data and 3 years of dispensed pharmacy records was used to identify the prevalence of immunosuppression use that is both off-label and not supported by CMS-approved compendia. Numbers of potentially vulnerable transplant recipients were identified. Off-label and off-compendia immunosuppression regimens are frequently prescribed (3-year mean: lung 66.5%, intestine 34.2%, pancreas 33.4%, heart 21.8%, liver 16.5%, kidney 0%). The annual retail cost of these at-risk medications exceeds $30 million. This population-based study of transplant immunosuppressants vulnerable to claim denials under Medicare Part D coverage demonstrates a substantial gap between clinical practice, current FDA approval processes, and policy mandates for pharmaceutical coverage. This coverage barrier reduces access to life-saving medications for patients without alternative resources and may increase the risk of graft loss and death from medication nonadherence.

Liver Simulated Allocation Modeling: Were the Predictions Accurate for Share 35?

BACKGROUND: The liver simulated allocation model (LSAM) can be used to study likely effects of liver transplant allocation policy changes on organ offers, acceptance, waitlist survival, and posttransplant survival. Implementation of Share 35 in June 2013 allowed for testing how well LSAM predicted actual changes. METHODS: LSAM projections for 1 year of liver transplants before and after the Share 35 policy change were compared with observed data during the same period. Numbers of organs recovered, organ sharing, transplant rates, and waitlist mortality rates (per 100 waitlist years) were evaluated by LSAM and compared with observed data. RESULTS: Candidate, recipient, and donor characteristics in the LSAM cohorts were similar to those in the observed population before and after Share 35. LSAM correctly predicted more accepted organs and fewer discarded organs with Share 35. LSAM also predicted increased regional and national sharing, consistent with observed data, although the magnitude was overestimated. Transplant rates were correctly projected to increase and waitlist death rates to decrease. CONCLUSIONS: Although the absolute number of transplants was underestimated and waitlist deaths overestimated, the direction of change was consistent with observed data. LSAM correctly predicted change in discarded organs, regional and national sharing, waitlist mortality, and transplants after Share 35 implementation.

Influence of kidney offer acceptance behavior on metrics of allocation efficiency.

We investigated associations of deceased donor kidney offer acceptance with likelihood of the kidney being discarded, cold ischemia time at transplant (CIT), and likelihood of the kidney being exported outside the donation service area (DSA). We used kidney offers from donors in the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients July 1, 2015-June 30, 2016, and a stratified logistic regression to estimate odds ratios of acceptance for candidates wait-listed in a DSA. We estimated associations between these ratios and likelihood of discard or export and CIT at transplant. Approximately 0.50 kidneys were discarded per donor; lower DSA-specific offer acceptance ratios were associated with more discards (R=-0.20; P=0.006). For a median donor, the DSA with the highest acceptance ratio would place 0.12 more kidneys per donor than the DSA with the lowest ratio. Low acceptance ratios were associated with higher CIT (R=-0.23; P<0.001). For the median donor, CIT was 2.9 hours shorter for the DSA with the highest versus lowest acceptance ratio. Low acceptance ratios were associated with more exports (R=-0.43; P<0.001); the probability was 15% higher for a median donor in the DSA with the lowest versus highest acceptance ratio. Improving lower-than-expected offer acceptance would likely reduce discards, CIT, and exports.

Clinical and Economic Consequences of Early Cancer After Kidney Transplantation in Contemporary Practice.

BACKGROUND: Current clinical and economic consequences of cancer after kidney transplantation are incompletely defined. METHODS: We examined United States Renal Data System records of Medicare-insured kidney transplant recipients in 2000 to 2011 to determine clinical and economic impacts of cancer diagnosed within the first 3 years posttransplantation. Cancer diagnoses were identified using Medicare billing codes and categorized as nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC), viral-linked and "other" cancers. Associations of cancers with mortality and graft loss were estimated by time-varying Cox regression. Impacts of cancer diagnoses on inpatient and outpatient costs within each year were quantified by multivariate linear regression modeling. RESULTS: Among 67 157 recipients, by 3 years posttransplant, NMSC was diagnosed in 5.7%, viral-linked cancer in 1.9%, and "other" cancers in 6.3%. Viral-linked cancer was associated with more than 3-fold increased risk in subsequent mortality until the third transplant anniversary, and nearly twice the mortality risk after year 3. "Other" cancers had similar associations with death and graft loss, whereas NMSC was associated with 33% higher mortality beyond the third year posttransplant. Viral-linked cancer had the largest inpatient and outpatient cost impacts per case, followed by "other" cancer, whereas NMSC impacted only outpatient costs. Care of new cancer diagnoses was generally more costly than care of previously established diagnoses. Cancer accounted for 3% to 5.5% of total inpatient Medicare expenditures and 1.5% to 3.3% of outpatient expenditures in the first 3 years posttransplant. CONCLUSIONS: Early posttransplant malignancy is an expensive and morbid condition that warrants attention in efforts to improve pretransplant screening and management protocols before and after transplant.