Long-term assessment of recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis C after viral cure by direct-acting antivirals.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence is common, even after achieving hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure. This study was carried out to assess the long-term trends and predictors of recurrence after HCV cure by direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). METHODS: This retrospective, multicenter cohort study enrolled 365 consecutive patients with chronic hepatitis C who required HCC treatment following sustained viral response (SVR) by DAA administration. Patients with HCC recurrence before SVR were excluded. Late HCC recurrence and its predictors beyond the post-treatment early phase (24 weeks after SVR) were evaluated. RESULTS: The data of 326 patients were available for the final analysis. The median follow-up duration from SVR determination was 2.7 years. Median age was 74, and 220 (67.5%) were 70 or over. The corresponding 5-year cumulative HCC recurrence rates of previous curative and palliative treatment groups were 45.4% and 65.7%, respectively (log-rank test: P < 0.001). Cox regression multivariable analysis revealed that cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR] 1.85, P = 0.021), the number of HCC nodules (≥ 2) (HR 1.52, P = 0.031), and previous palliative HCC treatment (HR 1.71, P = 0.012) were independent predictors of late recurrence, in addition to the predictors of early recurrence; AFP > 7 ng/mL at 12 weeks after DAA administration, time from HCC complete response (CR) to DAA initiation (< 1 year), and the number of HCC treatments necessary to achieve CR (≥ 2). CONCLUSIONS: The evaluation of fibrosis and characteristics of the previous HCC would allow for better HCC recurrence stratification, which would be helpful for developing long-term surveillance strategies.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of sofosbuvir plus ribavirin in patients with genotype 2 chronic hepatitis C: an analysis with real world outcomes from a multicentre cohort in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: A number of publications have demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of sofosbuvir plus ribavirin (SOF+RBV) compared with the former standard therapy with interferon (IFN)-containing regimens. Unlike these cost-effective analyses, where efficacy parameters were obtained from registration trials for drug approval, this analysis is a cost-effectiveness analysis of SOF+RBV for genotype (GT) 2 non-cirrhosis (NC) and compensated cirrhosis (CC) patients using efficacy parameters obtained from a multicentre cohort study (Kyushu University Liver Disease Study; KULDS) in Kyushu area in Japan in order to reflect real-world clinical practice in Japan. METHOD: A Markov model followed 10 000 patients (62 years old) over their lifetime. Four populations were followed: treatment-naïve (TN)-NC, treatment-experienced (TE)-NC, TN-CC and TE-CC. Comparators were Peg-IFNα2b+RBV for TN-NC and CC patients and telaprevir (TVR)+Peg-IFNα2b+RBV for TE-NC patients. The sustained virological response (SVR) rates of SOF+RBV were taken from KULDS and those of comparators were obtained from systematic literature reviews. There were nine states (NC, CC, decompensated cirrhosis [DC], hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC], SVR [NC], SVR [CC], liver transplantation [LT], post-LT and death) in this model, and an increase in the progression rate to HCC due to ageing was also considered. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of a public healthcare payer, and a discount rate of 2% was set for both cost and effectiveness. RESULTS: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of SOF+RBV versus Peg-IFNα2b+RBV were ¥323 928 /quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for TN-NC patients, ¥92 256/QALY for TN-CC patients and ¥1 519 202/QALY for TE-CC patients. The ICER of SOF+RBV versus TVR+Peg-IFNα2b+RBV was ¥849 138/QALY for TE-NC patients. The robustness of the results was determined by sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this analysis strongly demonstrate the robustness of our previous findings that SOF+RBV regimens are cost-effective in the real world and clinical trial settings for Japanese GT2 NC and CC patients.