Should I See You Again Soon? A Multispecialty Assessment of the Impact and Burden of Preoperative History and Physical Update Visits.

BACKGROUND: Federal regulations require a history and physical (H&P) update performed ≤30 days before a planned procedure. We evaluated the utility and burdens of H&P update visits by determining impact on operative management, suitability for telehealth, and visit time and travel burden. STUDY DESIGN: We identified H&P update visits performed in our health system during 2019 for 8 surgical specialties. As available, up to 50 visits per specialty were randomly selected. Primary outcomes were a) interval changes in history, exam, or operative plan between the initial and updated H&P notes and b) visit suitability for telehealth, as determined by two independent physician reviewers. Clinic time was captured, and round-trip driving time and distance between patients' home and clinic ZIP codes were estimated. RESULTS: We identified 8,683 visits and 362 were randomly selected for review. Documented changes were most commonly identified in histories (60.8%), but rarely in physical exams (11.9%) and operative plans (11.6%). 99.2% of visits were considered suitable for telehealth. Median clinic time was 52 minutes (IQR:33.8-78), driving time was 55.6 minutes (IQR:35.5-85.5), and driving distance was 20.2 miles (IQR:8.5-38.4). At the health system level, patients spent an estimated aggregate 7,000 hours (including 4,046 hours of waiting room and travel time) and drove 142,273 miles to attend in-person H&P update visits in 2019. CONCLUSION: Given their minimal impact on operative management, regulatory requirements for in-person H&P updates should be reconsidered. Flexibility in update timing and modality might help defray the substantial burdens these visits impose on patients.

Impact of Hospital Affiliation With a Flagship Hospital System on Surgical Outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To compare general surgery outcomes at flagship systems, flagship hospitals, and flagship hospital affiliates versus matched controls. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: It is unknown whether flagship hospitals perform better than flagship hospital affiliates for surgical patients. METHODS: Using Medicare claims for 2018 to 2019, we matched patients undergoing inpatient general surgery in flagship system hospitals to controls who underwent the same procedure at hospitals outside the system but within the same region. We defined a "flagship hospital" within each region as the major teaching hospital with the highest patient volume that is also part of a hospital system; its system was labeled a "flagship system." We performed 4 main comparisons: patients treated at any flagship system hospital versus hospitals outside the flagship system; flagship hospitals versus hospitals outside the flagship system; flagship hospital affiliates versus hospitals outside the flagship system; and flagship hospitals versus affiliate hospitals. Our primary outcome was 30-day mortality. RESULTS: We formed 32,228 closely matched pairs across 35 regions. Patients at flagship system hospitals (32,228 pairs) had lower 30-day mortality than matched control patients [3.79% vs. 4.36%, difference=-0.57% (-0.86%, -0.28%), P<0.001]. Similarly, patients at flagship hospitals (15,571/32,228 pairs) had lower mortality than control patients. However, patients at flagship hospital affiliates (16,657/32,228 pairs) had similar mortality to matched controls. Flagship hospitals had lower mortality than affiliate hospitals [difference-in-differences=-1.05% (-1.62%, -0.47%), P<0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: Patients treated at flagship hospitals had significantly lower mortality rates than those treated at flagship hospital affiliates. Hence, flagship system affiliation does not alone imply better surgical outcomes.

Costs of Care for Operative and Nonoperative Management of Emergency General Surgery Conditions.

OBJECTIVE: Many emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions can be managed operatively or nonoperatively, with outcomes that vary by diagnosis. We hypothesized that operative management would lead to higher in-hospital costs but to cost savings over time. BACKGROUND: EGS conditions account for $28 billion in health care costs in the United States annually. Compared with scheduled surgery, patients who undergo emergency surgery are at increased risk of complications, readmissions, and death, with accompanying costs of care that are up to 50% higher than elective surgery. Our prior work demonstrated that operative management had variable impacts on clinical outcomes depending on the EGS condition. METHODS: This was a nationwide, retrospective study using fee-for-service Medicare claims data. We included patients 65.5 years of age or older with a principal diagnosis for an EGS condition 7/1/2015-6/30/2018. EGS conditions were categorized as: colorectal, general abdominal, hepatopancreaticobiliary (HPB), intestinal obstruction, and upper gastrointestinal. We used near-far matching with a preference-based instrumental variable to adjust for confounding and selection bias. Outcomes included Medicare payments for the index hospitalization and at 30, 90, and 180 days. RESULTS: Of 507,677 patients, 30.6% received an operation. For HPB conditions, costs for operative management were initially higher but became equivalent at 90 and 180 days. For all others, operative management was associated with higher inpatient costs, which persisted, though narrowed, over time. Out-of-pocket costs were nearly equivalent for operative and nonoperative management. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with nonoperative management, costs were higher or equivalent for operative management of EGS conditions through 180 days, which could impact decision-making for clinicians, patients, and health systems in situations where clinical outcomes are similar.

Assessing the Frequency of Deferrable Thyroid Nodule Biopsies to De-escalate Low-Value Care.

OBJECTIVE: Thyroid nodules are common, yet fewer than 1 in 10 harbors malignancy. When present, thyroid cancer is typically indolent with excellent survival. Therefore, patients who are not candidates for thyroid cancer treatment due to comorbid disease may not require further thyroid nodule evaluation. The goal of this study was to determine the rate of deferrable thyroid nodule biopsies in patients with limited life expectancy. METHODS: We identified patients who underwent thyroid fine needle aspiration (FNA) between 2015 and 2018 at our institution. The primary outcome was the number of deferrable FNAs, defined as FNAs performed in patients who died within 2 years after biopsy. Secondary outcomes included cytologic Bethesda score, procedure costs, and final diagnosis on surgical pathology. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to evaluate factors associated with FNA in patients with limited life expectancy. RESULTS: A total of 2565 FNAs were performed. Most patients were female (79%), and 37 (1.5%) patients died within 2 years. Nonthyroid specialists were significantly more likely to order deferrable FNAs (odds ratio 4.13, P < .001). Of the patients who died within 2 years, most (78%) had a concomitant diagnosis of nonthyroid cancer, and 4 went on to have thyroid surgery (Bethesda scores: 3, 4, 4, and 6). Spending associated with deferrable FNAs and subsequent surgery totaled over $98 000. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the rate of deferrable thyroid nodule biopsies was low. However, there is an opportunity to reduce low-value biopsies in patients with a concurrent nonthyroid cancer by partnering with oncology providers.

Inefficiencies of care in hub and spoke healthcare systems: A multi-state cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Complex surgical care is often centralized to one high volume (hub) hospital within a system. The benefit of this centralization in common operations is unknown. METHODS: Using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's State Inpatient Databases, adult general surgical patients within hospital systems in 13 states (2016-2018) were identified. Risk-adjusted logistic regression estimated the odds of death or serious morbidity (DSM) and prolonged length of stay (LOS) at hubs relative to other system hospitals (spokes). RESULTS: We identified 122,895 patients across 43 hub-and-spoke systems. Hubs completed 83.2 â€‹% of complex and 59.6 â€‹% of common operations. For complex operations, odds of DSM were significantly lower in hubs (OR: 0.80; 95 â€‹% CI [0.65, 0.98]). For common operations, odds of DSM were similar between hubs and spokes, while odds of prolonged LOS were greater at hubs (OR 1.19; 95 â€‹% CI [1.16,1.24]). CONCLUSIONS: While hub hospitals had lower odds of DSM for complex operation, they had higher odds of prolonged length of stay for common operations. This finding shows an opportunity for improved system efficiency.

The use and costs of same-day surgery versus overnight admission for total thyroidectomy: A multi-state, all-payer analysis.

BACKGROUND: Outpatient thyroidectomy is increasingly favored, given evidence of safety and convenience for selected patients. However, the prevalence of same-day discharge is unclear. We aimed to evaluate temporal trends, hospital characteristics, and costs associated with same-day discharge after total thyroidectomy in an all-payer, multi-state cohort. METHODS: We included patients aged ≥18 years who underwent a total thyroidectomy (2013-2019) using Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project data. Admission type was defined as same-day, overnight, or inpatient based on length of stay. Same-day patients were propensity-score matched 1:1 with overnight patients. Hospital characteristics and costs were compared in the matched cohort. RESULTS: Among 86,187 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy, 16,743 (19.4%) cases were same-day, 59,778 (69.4%) were overnight, and 9,666 (11.2%) were inpatient. The proportion of patients who underwent same-day thyroidectomy increased from 14.8% to 20.8% over the study period (P < .001), whereas overnight admissions decreased from 72.9% to 68.8% (P < .001). In total, 9,571 same-day patients were matched to 9,571 overnight patients. Same-day patients had higher odds of treatment at a certified cancer center (odds ratio 1.77; 95% confidence interval 1.65-1.90), Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education-accredited teaching hospital (odds ratio 1.72; 95% confidence interval 1.61-1.85), and high-volume hospital (odds ratio 1.53; 95% confidence interval 1.42-1.65). Pairwise cost differences showed median savings of $974 (interquartile range -1,610 to 3,491) for same-day relative to overnight admission (P < .001). CONCLUSION: Although over two-thirds of patients are admitted overnight, same-day total thyroidectomy is increasingly performed. Same-day thyroidectomy may be a lower-cost option for selected patients, particularly in specialty centers with experience in thyroidectomy.

The effect of Section 1557 of the Affordable Care Act on surgical outcomes in non-English primary language speakers.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, Section 1557 mandated use of qualified language interpreter services. We examined the effect of Section 1557 on surgical outcomes. METHODS: Utilizing the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Database (2013-2020), we performed a difference-in-differences analysis of adult surgical patients (Maryland, New Jersey). The exposure was implementation of Section 1557 (pre-period: 2013-2015; post-period: 2017-2020). The treatment group was non-English primary language speakers (n-EPL). The comparison group was English primary language speakers (EPL). Outcomes included length-of-stay, postoperative complications, mortality, discharge disposition, and readmissions. RESULTS: Among 2,298,584 patients, 198,385 (8.6%) were n-EPL. After implementation of Section 1557, n-EPL saw no difference in readmission rates but did experience significantly higher rates of mortality (+0.43%, p â€‹= â€‹0.049) and non-routine discharges (+1.81%, p â€‹= â€‹0.031) in Maryland, and higher rates of post-operative complications (+0.31%, p â€‹= â€‹0.001) in both states, compared to pre-Section 1557. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to our hypothesis, Section 1557 did not improve surgical outcomes for n-EPL.

An acute care surgeon's dilemma: Operative vs. non-operative management of emergency general surgery conditions in patients with recent colorectal cancer treatment.

BACKGROUND: This comparative effectiveness study examined outcomes of operative vs. non-operative management for emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions in patients with recent cancer treatment (RT). METHODS: Medicare beneficiaries with a history of colorectal cancer hospitalized for an EGS condition (2016-2018) were identified. RT was defined as chemotherapy/radiation within 3 months prior to admission. Instrumental variable analysis assessed the impact of management on mortality and readmissions among survivors (30d, 60d, and 90d), for patients in whom there was clinical equipoise regarding optimal management strategy. RESULTS: Of 26,097 patients, 13% had undergone RT. In both the RT and non-RT groups, the optimal management strategy was uncertain in 14%. Operative management conferred increased risk of mortality but not readmission in patients with RT compared to those without (90d mortality:+43%, p â€‹= â€‹0.03; 90d readmission:+7.1%, p â€‹= â€‹0.776). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with RT for whom there is clinical equipoise regarding EGS management, operative intervention increases risk of mortality.

Primary Care Physician Follow-Up and 30-Day Readmission After Emergency General Surgery Admissions.

Importance: The benefit of primary care physician (PCP) follow-up as a potential means to reduce readmissions in hospitalized patients has been found in other medical conditions and among patients receiving high-risk surgery. However, little is known about the implications of PCP follow-up for patients with an emergency general surgery (EGS) condition. Objective: To evaluate the association between PCP follow-up and 30-day readmission rates after hospital discharge for an EGS condition. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Master Beneficiary Summary File, Inpatient, Carrier (Part B), and Durable Medical Equipment files for beneficiaries aged 66 years or older who were hospitalized with an EGS condition that was managed operatively or nonoperatively between September 1, 2016, and November 30, 2018. Eligible patients were enrolled in Medicare fee-for-service, admitted through the emergency department with a primary diagnosis of an EGS condition, and received a general surgery consultation during the admission. Data were analyzed between July 11, 2022, and June 5, 2023. Exposure: Follow-up with a PCP within 30 days after hospital discharge for the index admission. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was readmission within 30 days after discharge for the index admission. An inverse probability weighted regression model was used to estimate the risk-adjusted association of PCP follow-up with 30-day readmission. The secondary outcome was readmission within 30 days after discharge stratified by treatment type (operative vs nonoperative treatment) during their index admission. Results: The study included 345 360 Medicare beneficiaries (mean [SD] age, 74.4 [12.0] years; 187 804 females [54.4%]) hospitalized with an EGS condition. Of these, 156 820 patients (45.4%) had a follow-up PCP visit, 108 544 (31.4%) received operative treatment during their index admission, and 236 816 (68.6%) received nonoperative treatment. Overall, 58 253 of 332 874 patients (17.5%) were readmitted within 30 days after discharge for the index admission. After risk adjustment and propensity weighting, patients who had PCP follow-up had 67% lower odds of readmission (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.33; 95% CI, 0.31-0.36) compared with patients without PCP follow-up. After stratifying by treatment type, patients who were treated operatively during their index admission and had subsequent PCP follow-up within 30 days after discharge had 79% reduced odds of readmission (AOR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.18-0.25); a similar association was seen among patients who were treated nonoperatively (AOR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.34-0.39). Infectious conditions, heart failure, acute kidney failure, and chronic kidney disease were among the most frequent diagnoses prompting readmission overall and among operative and nonoperative treatment groups. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, follow-up with a PCP within 30 days after discharge for an EGS condition was associated with a significant reduction in the adjusted odds of 30-day readmission. This association was similar for patients who received operative care or nonoperative care during their index admission. In patients aged 66 years or older with an EGS condition, primary care coordination after discharge may be an important tool to reduce readmissions.

Emergency Surgery, Multimorbidity and Hospital-Free Days: A Retrospective Observational Study.

INTRODUCTION: Analyzing hospital-free days (HFDs) offers a patient-centered approach to health services research. We hypothesized that, within emergency general surgery (EGS), multimorbidity would be associated with fewer HFDs, whether patients were managed operatively or nonoperatively. METHODS: EGS patients were identified using national Medicare claims data (2015-2018). Patients were classified as multimorbid based on the presence of a Qualifying Comorbidity Set and stratified by treatment: operative (received surgery within 48 h of index admission) and nonoperative. HFDs were calculated through 180 d, beginning on the day of index admission, as days alive and spent outside of a hospital, an Emergency Department, or a long-term acute care facility. Univariate comparisons were performed using Kruskal-Wallis tests and risk-adjusted HFDs were compared between multimorbid and nonmultimorbid patients using multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: Among 174,891 operative patients, 45.5% were multimorbid. Among 398,756 nonoperative patients, 59.2% were multimorbid. Multimorbid patients had fewer median HFDs than nonmultimorbid patients among operative and nonoperative cohorts (P < 0.001). At 6 mo, among operative patients, multimorbid patients had 6.5 fewer HFDs (P < 0.001), and among nonoperative patients, multimorbid patients had 7.9 fewer HFDs (P < 0.001). When length of stay was included as a covariate, nonoperative multimorbid patients still had 7.9 fewer HFDs than nonoperative, nonmultimorbid patients (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: HFDs offer a patient-centered, composite outcome for claims-based analyses. For EGS patients, multimorbidity was associated with less time alive and out of the hospital, especially when patients were managed nonoperatively.

Conditional Effects of Race on Operative and Nonoperative Outcomes of Emergency General Surgery Conditions.

INTRODUCTION: Many emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions can be managed both operatively or nonoperatively; however, it is unknown whether the decision to operate affects Black and White patients differentially. METHODS: We identified a nationwide cohort of Black and White Medicare beneficiaries, hospitalized for common EGS conditions from July 2015 to June 2018. Using near-far matching to adjust for measurable confounding and an instrumental variable analysis to control for selection bias associated with treatment assignment, we compare outcomes of operative and nonoperative management in a stratified population of Black and White patients. Outcomes included in-hospital mortality, 30-day mortality, nonroutine discharge, and 30-day readmissions. An interaction test based on a t test was used to determine the conditional effects of operative versus nonoperative management between Black and White patients. RESULTS: A total of 556,087 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 59,519 (10.7%) were Black and 496,568 (89.3%) were White. Overall, 165,932 (29.8%) patients had an operation and 390,155 (70.2%) were managed nonoperatively. Significant outcome differences were seen between operative and nonoperative management for some conditions; however, no significant differences were seen for the conditional effect of race on outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The decision to manage an EGS patient operatively versus nonoperatively has varying effects on surgical outcomes. These effects vary by EGS condition. There were no significant conditional effects of race on the outcomes of operative versus nonoperative management among universally insured older adults hospitalized with EGS conditions.

Association of Established Primary Care Use With Postoperative Mortality Following Emergency General Surgery Procedures.

Importance: Sixty-five million individuals in the US live in primary care shortage areas with nearly one-third of Medicare patients in need of a primary care health care professional. Periodic health examinations and preventive care visits have demonstrated a benefit for surgical patients; however, the impact of primary care health care professional shortages on adverse outcomes from surgery is largely unknown. Objective: To determine if preoperative primary care utilization is associated with postoperative mortality following an emergency general surgery (EGS) operation among Black and White older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a retrospective cohort study that took place at US hospitals with an emergency department. Participants were Medicare patients aged 66 years or older who were admitted from the emergency department for an EGS condition between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2018, and underwent an operation on hospital day 0, 1, or 2. The analysis was performed during December 2022. Patients were classified into 1 of 5 EGS condition categories based on principal diagnosis codes; colorectal, general abdominal, hepatopancreatobiliary, intestinal obstruction, or upper gastrointestinal. Mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression was used in the risk-adjusted models. An interaction term model was used to measure effect modification by race. Exposure: Primary care utilization in the year prior to presentation for an EGS operation. Main Outcome and Measures: In-hospital, 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and 180-day mortality. Results: A total of 102 384 patients (mean age, 73.8 [SD, 11.5] years) were included in the study. Of those, 8559 were Black (8.4%) and 93 825 were White (91.6%). A total of 88 340 patients (86.3%) had seen a primary care physician in the year prior to their index hospitalization. After risk adjustment, patients with primary care exposure had 19% lower odds of in-hospital mortality than patients without primary care exposure (odds ratio [OR], 0.81; 95% CI, 0.72-0.92). At 30 days patients with primary care exposure had 27% lower odds of mortality (OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67-0.80). This remained relatively stable at 60 days (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.81), 90 days (OR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.69-0.81), and 180 days (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.81). None of the interactions between race and primary care physician exposure for mortality at any time interval were significantly different. Conclusions and Relevance: In this observational study of Black and White Medicare patients, primary care utilization had no impact on in-hospital mortality for Black patients, but was associated with decreased mortality for White patients. Primary care utilization was associated with decreased mortality for both Black and White patients at 30, 60, 90 and 180 days.

National Cohort Study of Resource Utilization in Older Adults With Emergency General Surgery Conditions.

INTRODUCTION: Prior studies have sought to describe Emergency General Surgery (EGS) burden, but a detailed description of resource utilization for both operative and nonoperative management of EGS conditions has not been undertaken. METHODS: Patient and hospital characteristics were extracted from Medicare data, 2015-2018. Operations, nonsurgical procedures, and other resources (i.e., radiology) were defined using Current Procedural Terminology codes. RESULTS: One million eight hundred two thousand five hundred forty-five patients were included in the cohort. The mean age was 74.7 y and the most common diagnoses were upper gastrointestinal. The majority of hospitals were metropolitan (75.1%). Therapeutic radiology services were available in 78.4% of hospitals and operating rooms or endoscopy suites were available in 92.5% of hospitals. There was variability in resource utilization across EGS subconditions, with hepatobiliary (26.4%) and obstruction (23.9%) patients most frequently undergoing operation. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of EGS diseases in older adults involves several interventional resources. Changes in EGS models, acute care surgery training, and interhospital care coordination may be beneficial to the treatment of EGS patients.

The Conditional Effects of Multimorbidity on Operative Versus Nonoperative Management of Emergency General Surgery Conditions: A Retrospective Observational Study Using an Instrumental Variable Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To understand how multimorbidity impacts operative versus nonoperative management of emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions. BACKGROUND: EGS is a heterogenous field, encompassing operative and nonoperative treatment options. Decision-making is particularly complex for older patients with multimorbidity. METHODS: Using an instrumental variable approach with near-far matching, this national, retrospective observational cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries examines the conditional effects of multimorbidity, defined using qualifying comorbidity sets, on operative versus nonoperative management of EGS conditions. RESULTS: Of 507,667 patients with EGS conditions, 155,493 (30.6%) received an operation. Overall, 278,836 (54.9%) were multimorbid. After adjustment, multimorbidity significantly increased the risk of in-hospital mortality associated with operative management for general abdominal patients (+9.8%; P = 0.002) and upper gastrointestinal patients (+19.9%, P < 0.001) and the risk of 30-day mortality (+27.7%, P < 0.001) and nonroutine discharge (+21.8%, P = 0.007) associated with operative management for upper gastrointestinal patients. Regardless of multimorbidity status, operative management was associated with a higher risk of in-hospital mortality among colorectal patients (multimorbid: + 12%, P < 0.001; nonmultimorbid: +4%, P = 0.003), higher risk of nonroutine discharge among colorectal (multimorbid: +42.3%, P < 0.001; nonmultimorbid: +55.1%, P < 0.001) and intestinal obstruction patients (multimorbid: +14.6%, P = 0.001; nonmultimorbid: +14.8%, P = 0.001), and lower risk of nonroutine discharge (multimorbid: -11.5%, P < 0.001; nonmultimorbid: -11.9%, P < 0.001) and 30-day readmissions (multimorbid: -8.2%, P = 0.002; nonmultimorbid: -9.7%, P < 0.001) among hepatobiliary patients. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of multimorbidity on operative versus nonoperative management varied by EGS condition category. Physicians and patients should have honest conversations about the expected risks and benefits of treatment options, and future investigations should aim to understand the optimal management of multimorbid EGS patients.

Barriers and facilitators to surgical access in underinsured and immigrant populations.

BACKGROUND: Marginalized communities are at risk of receiving inequitable access to surgical care. We aimed to examine the barriers and facilitators to access to surgery in underinsured and immigrant populations. METHODS: A systematic review of disparities in access to surgical care was performed between January 1, 2000-March 2, 2022. Methodological quality was assessed with the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. A convergent integrated approach was used to code common themes between studies. RESULTS: Of 1315 publications, a total of 66 studies were included for systematic review. Eight studies specifically discussed immigrant patient populations. Barriers and facilitators to surgical access were categorized by patient and health systems related factors. CONCLUSIONS: Established facilitators to improve surgical access are centered on patient-level factors while interventions to address systems-related barriers are limited and may be an area for further investigation. Research focused on access to surgery in immigrant populations remains sparse.

Insurance-Based Disparities in Guideline-Concordant Thyroid Cancer Care in the Era of De-escalation.

INTRODUCTION: Prior studies have demonstrated insurance-based disparities in the treatment of well-differentiated thyroid cancer. However, it remains unclear whether these disparities have persisted in the era of the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) management guidelines. The goal of this study was to assess whether insurance type is associated with the receipt of guideline-concordant and timely thyroid cancer treatment in a modern cohort. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with well-differentiated thyroid cancer between 2016 and 2019 were identified from the National Cancer Database. Appropriateness of surgical and radioactive iodine treatment (RAI) was determined based on the 2015 ATA guidelines. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard regression analyses, stratified at age 65, were used to evaluate the associations between insurance type and appropriateness and timeliness of the treatment. RESULTS: 125,827 patients were included (private = 71%, Medicare = 19%, Medicaid = 10%). Compared to privately insured patients, patients with Medicaid more frequently presented with tumors >4 cm in size (11% versus 8%, P < 0.001) and regional metastases (29% versus 27%, P < 0.001). However, patients with Medicaid were also less likely to undergo appropriate surgical treatment (odds ratio 0.69, P < 0.001), less likely to undergo surgery within 90 d of diagnosis (hazard ratio 0.80, P < 0.001), and more likely to be undertreated with RAI (odds ratio 1.29, P < 0.001). There were no differences in the likelihood of guideline-concordant surgical or medical treatment by insurance type in patients ≥65 y old. CONCLUSIONS: In the era of the 2015 ATA guidelines, patients with Medicaid remain less likely to receive guideline-concordant, timely surgery and more likely to be undertreated with RAI compared to privately insured patients.

Development of a Machine Learning Model to Identify Colorectal Cancer Stage in Medicare Claims.

PURPOSE: Staging information is essential for colorectal cancer research. Medicare claims are an important source of population-level data but currently lack oncologic stage. We aimed to develop a claims-based model to identify stage at diagnosis in patients with colorectal cancer. METHODS: We included patients age 66 years or older with colorectal cancer in the SEER-Medicare registry. Using patients diagnosed from 2014 to 2016, we developed models (multinomial logistic regression, elastic net regression, and random forest) to classify patients into stage I-II, III, or IV on the basis of demographics, diagnoses, and treatment utilization identified in Medicare claims. Models developed in a training cohort (2014-2016) were applied to a testing cohort (2017), and performance was evaluated using cancer stage listed in the SEER registry as the reference standard. RESULTS: The cohort of patients with 30,543 colorectal cancer included 14,935 (48.9%) patients with stage I-II, 9,203 (30.1%) with stage III, and 6,405 (21%) with stage IV disease. A claims-based model using elastic net regression had a scaled Brier score (SBS) of 0.45 (95% CI, 0.43 to 0.46). Performance was strongest for classifying stage IV (SBS, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.64; sensitivity, 93%; 95% CI, 91 to 94) followed by stage I-II (SBS, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.47; sensitivity, 86%; 95% CI, 85 to 76) and stage III (SBS, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.33; sensitivity, 62%; 95% CI, 61 to 64). CONCLUSION: Machine learning models effectively classified colorectal cancer stage using Medicare claims. These models extend the ability of claims-based research to risk-adjust and stratify by stage.

Explaining racial disparities in surgical survival: a tapered match analysis of patient and hospital factors.

OBJECTIVES: Evaluate whether hospital factors, including nurse resources, explain racial differences in Medicare black and white patient surgical outcomes and whether disparities changed over time. DESIGN: Retrospective tapered-match. SETTING: 571 hospitals at two time points (Early Era 2003-2005; Recent Era 2013-2015). PARTICIPANTS: 6752 black patients and three sets of 6752 white controls selected from 107 001 potential controls (Early Era). 4964 black patients and three sets of 4964 white controls selected from 74 108 potential controls (Recent Era). INTERVENTIONS: Black patients were matched to white controls on demographics (age, sex, state and year of procedure), procedure (demographics variables plus 136 International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 principal procedure codes) and presentation (demographics and procedure variables plus 34 comorbidities, a mortality risk score, a propensity score for being black, emergency admission, transfer status, predicted procedure time). OUTCOMES: 30-day and 1-year mortality. RESULTS: Before matching, black patients had more comorbidities, higher risk of mortality despite being younger and underwent procedures at different percentages than white patients. Whites in the demographics match had lower mortality at 30 days (5.6% vs 6.7% Early Era; 5.4% vs 5.7% Recent Era) and 1-year (15.5% vs 21.5% Early Era; 12.3% vs 15.9% Recent Era). Black-white 1-year mortality differences were equivalent after matching patients with respect to presentation, procedure and demographic factors. Black-white 30-day mortality differences were equivalent after matching on procedure and demographic factors. Racial disparities in outcomes remained unchanged between the two time periods spanning 10 years. All patients in hospitals with better nurse resources had lower odds of 30-day (OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.78, p<0.010) and 1-year mortality (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.92, p<0.010) even after accounting for other hospital factors. CONCLUSIONS: Survival disparities among black and white patients are largely explained by differences in demographic, procedure and presentation factors. Better nurse resources (eg, staffing, work environment) were associated with lower mortality for all patients.

Impact of Medicaid expansion on outcomes after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

OBJECTIVE: Lack of insurance has been independently associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, possibly due to worse control of comorbidities and delays in diagnosis and treatment. Medicaid expansion has improved insurance rates and access to care, potentially benefiting these patients. We sought to assess the association between Medicaid expansion and outcomes after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases data from 14 states between 2012 and 2018 was conducted. The sample was restricted to first-record abdominal aortic aneurysm repairs in adults under age 65 in states that expanded Medicaid on January 1, 2014 (Medicaid expansion group) or had not expanded before December 31, 2018 (non-expansion group). The Medicaid expansion and non-expansion groups were compared between pre-expansion (2012-2013) and post-expansion (2014-2018) time periods to assess baseline demographic and operative differences. We used difference-in-differences multivariable logistic regression adjusted for patient factors, open vs endovascular repair, and standard errors clustered by state. Our primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Outcomes were stratified by insurance type. RESULTS: We examined 8995 patients undergoing abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, including 3789 (42.1%) in non-expansion states and 5206 (57.9%) in Medicaid expansion states. Rates of Medicaid insurance were unchanged in non-expansion states but increased in Medicaid expansion states post-expansion (non-expansion: 10.9% to 9.8%; P = .346; expansion: 9.7% to 19.7%; P < .001). One in 10 patients from both non-expansion and Medicaid expansion states presented with ruptured aneurysms, which did not change over time. Rates of open repair decreased in both non-expansion and Medicaid expansion states over time (non-expansion: 25.1% to 19.2%; P < .001; expansion: 25.2% to 18.4%; P < .001). On adjusted difference-in-differences analysis between expansion and non-expansion states pre-to post-expansion, Medicaid expansion was associated with a 1.02% absolute reduction in in-hospital mortality among all patients (95% confidence interval, -1.87% to -0.17%; P = .019). Additionally, among patients who were either on Medicaid or were uninsured (ie, the patients most likely to be impacted by Medicaid expansion), a larger 4.17% decrease in in-hospital mortality was observed (95% confidence interval, -6.47% to -1.87%; P < .001). In contrast, no significant difference-in-difference in mortality was observed for privately insured patients. CONCLUSIONS: Medicaid expansion was associated with decreased in-hospital mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair among all patients and particularly among patients who were either on Medicaid or were uninsured. Our results provide support for improved access to care for patients undergoing abdominal aortic aneurysm repair through Medicaid expansion.