Population risk factors for COVID-19 deaths in Nigeria at sub-national level.

INTRODUCTION: Nigeria is the most populous country in the African continent. The aim of this study was to analyze risk factors for COVID-19 prevalence and deaths in all 6 geopolitical regions and 37 States in Nigeria. METHODS: we analyzed the data retrieved from various sources, including Nigeria CDC, Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics, Unicef-Nigeria multiple indicator cluster survey and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington. We examined 4 clinical risk factors (prevalence of TB, HIV, smoking and BCG vaccination coverage) and 5 sociodemographic factors (age ≥65, population density, literacy rate, unemployment and GDP per capita). Multivariate modeling was conducted using generalized linear model. RESULTS: our analysis showed that the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases differed widely across the 37 States, from 0.09 per 100,000 in Kogi to 83.7 in Lagos. However, more than 70% of confirmed cases were concentrated in just 7 States: Lagos, Abuja, Oyo, Kano, Edo, Rivers and Delta. Case mortality rate (CMR) also varied considerably, with Lagos, Abuja and Edo having CMR above 9 per million population. On bivariate analysis, higher CMR correlated positively with GDP (r=0.53) and to a lesser extent with TB (r=0.36) and population density (r=0.38). On multivariate analysis, which is more definitive, States with higher HIV prevalence and BCG coverage had lower CMR, while high GDP States had a greater CMR. CONCLUSION: this study indicates that COVID-19 has disproportionately affected certain States in Nigeria. Population susceptibility factors include higher economic development but not literacy or unemployment. Death rates were mildly lower in States with higher HIV prevalence and BCG vaccination coverage.

Global and regional incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years for Epstein-Barr virus-attributable malignancies, 1990-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the global and regional burden of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-attributed malignancies. DESIGN: An international comparative study based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study estimates. SETTING: Global population by age, sex, region, demographic index and time. METHODS AND OUTCOME MEASURES: The burden of EBV-attributed Burkitt lymphoma (BL), Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) and gastric carcinoma (GC) was estimated in a two-step process. In the first step, the fraction of each malignancy attributable to EBV was estimated based on published studies; this was then applied to the GBD estimates to determine the global and regional incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for each malignancy by age, sex, geographical region and social demographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: The combined global incidence of BL, HL, NPC and GC in 2017 was 1.442 million cases, with over 973 000 deaths. An estimated 265 000 (18%) incident cases and 164 000 (17%) deaths were due to the EBV-attributed fraction. This is an increase of 36% in incidence and 19% in mortality from 1990. In 2017, EBV-attributed malignancies caused 4.604 million DALYs, of which 82% was due to NPC and GC alone. The incidence of both of these malignancies was higher in high and middle-high SDI regions and peaked in adults aged between 50 and 70 years. All four malignancies were more common in males and the highest burden was observed in East Asia. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides comprehensive estimates of the burden of EBV-attributed BL, HL, NPC and GC. The overall burden of EBV-related malignancies is likely to be higher since EBV is aetiologically linked to several other malignancies not included in this analysis. Increasing global population and life expectancy is expected to further raise this burden in the future. The urgency for developing an effective vaccine to prevent these malignancies cannot be overstated.

Burden of Breast Cancer in the Arab World: Findings from Global Burden of Disease, 2016.

Epidemiology of breast cancer in the Arab region is understudied as compared with Western countries. We aimed to examine breast cancer epidemiology in Arab countries from 1990 to 2016. We analyzed the Global Burden of Disease, 2016 data for breast cancer among women in 22 Arab countries. Epidemiological measures including incidence, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were analyzed for breast cancer in women from 1990 to 2016. We also measured the burden of breast cancer stratified by the sociodemographic index (SDI). Our analysis indicates that the incidence of breast cancer in Arab women has risen over the past 26 years, but is still lower than global averages. In 2016, there were 45,980 new cases (28/100,000) and 20,063 deaths (11/100,000) in the region. The burden of breast cancer as estimated by DALYs was also lower than the global rates and tended to increase with increasing SDI. Although some studies have reported that Arab women present with breast cancer at a younger age, our analysis of age-specific rates, indicates that this is not statistically significant. Our findings indicate that a comprehensive plan to improve public awareness, screening, diagnosis, and treatment is required to reduce the growing burden of breast cancer in the Arab world.