Self-reported physical functional health predicts future bone mineral density in EPIC-Norfolk cohort.

Using a large population sample from the UK, we found that self-reported physical functional health may be used to predict future bone mineral density especially in women. It may be a useful and inexpensive way to identify individuals before further decline in bone mineral density and the risk of fracture. PURPOSE: Self-reported physical functional health may predict bone mineral density (BMD) and thus provide a method to identify people at risk of low BMD. In this study, the association between the 36-item short-form questionnaire (SF-36) physical component summary (PCS) score and future BMD in participants aged 40-79 years enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk study was investigated. METHODS: Associations between a participant's SF-36 PCS score, measured 18 months after baseline health check, and broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA-a measure of BMD), measured 2-5 years after baseline, were examined using sex-specific linear and logistic regression analyses adjusting for age, BMI, medical co-morbidities, lifestyle and socioeconomic factors. RESULTS: Data from 10,203 participants, mean (standard deviation (SD)) age 61.5 (8.9) years (57.4% women), were analysed from 1993 to 2000. For every five points lower PCS score in men and women, there was approximately a 0.5 dB/MHz lower mean BUA. In women, a PCS score of less than one standard deviation (1SD) below the sex-specific mean was associated with having a low BUA (< 1SD below sex-specific mean) and very low BUA (< 2.5SD below the sex specific mean); odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval) 1.53 (1.24, 1.88) and 8.28 (2.67, 25.69), respectively. The relationship was lesser so in men; corresponding OR (95% CI) were 1.34 (0.91, 1.98) and 2.57 (0.72, 9.20), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported physical functioning predicts BMD in an apparently healthy population, particularly in women. This could potentially provide an inexpensive, simple screening tool to identify individuals at risk of osteoporosis.

Residential area deprivation and risk of subsequent hospital admission in a British population: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether residential area deprivation index predicts subsequent admissions to hospital and time spent in hospital independently of individual social class and lifestyle factors. DESIGN: Prospective population-based study. SETTING: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) study. PARTICIPANTS: 11 214 men and 13 763 women in the general population, aged 40-79 years at recruitment (1993-1997), alive in 1999. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Total admissions to hospital and time spent in hospital during a 19-year time period (1999-2018). RESULTS: Compared to those with residential Townsend Area Deprivation Index lower than the average for England and Wales, those with a higher than average deprivation index had a higher likelihood of spending >20 days in hospital multivariable adjusted OR 1.18 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.29) and having 7 or more admissions OR 1.11 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.22) after adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, education, social class and body mass index. Occupational social class and educational attainment modified the association between area deprivation and hospitalisation; those with manual social class and lower education level were at greater risk of hospitalisation when living in an area with higher deprivation index (p-interaction=0.025 and 0.020, respectively), while the risk for non-manual and more highly educated participants did not vary greatly by area of residence. CONCLUSION: Residential area deprivation predicts future hospitalisations, time spent in hospital and number of admissions, independently of individual social class and education level and other behavioural factors. There are significant interactions such that residential area deprivation has greater impact in those with low education level or manual social class. Conversely, higher education level and social class mitigated the association of area deprivation with hospital usage.

Association between area deprivation and major depressive disorder in British men and women: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Studies have shown area-level deprivation can increase the risk for mental disorders over and above individual-level circumstances, such as education and social class. The objective of this study is to determine whether area deprivation is associated with major depressive disorder (MDD) in British women and men separately while adjusting for individual-level factors. DESIGN: Large, population study. SETTING: UK population-based cohort. PARTICIPANTS: 30 445 people from the general population aged 40 years and older and living in England consented to participate at study baseline, and of these, over 20 000 participants completed a structured Health and Life Experiences Questionnaire used to capture MDD. Area deprivation was measured in 1991 using Census data, and current MDD was assessed in 1996-2000. 8236 men and 10 335 women had complete data on all covariates. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: MDD identified according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV). RESULTS: In this study, 3.3% (339/10 335) of women and 2.1% (177/8236) of men had MDD. Men living in the most deprived areas were 51% more likely to have depression than those living in areas that were not deprived (OR=1.51, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.24; p=0.043), but the association between deprivation and MDD was not statistically significant in women (OR=1.24, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.65; p=0.143). CONCLUSION: This study shows that the residential environment differentially affects men and women, and this needs to be taken into account by mental health policy-makers. Knowing that men living in deprived conditions are at high risk for having depression helps inform targeted prevention and intervention programmes.

Socioeconomic Effect of Education on Pancreatic Cancer Risk in Western Europe: An Update on the EPIC Cohorts Study.

BACKGROUND: To analyze the potential effect of social inequality on pancreatic cancer risk in Western Europe, by reassessing the association within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study, including a larger number of cases and an extended follow-up. METHODS: Data on highest education attained were gathered for 459,170 participants (70% women) from 10 European countries. A relative index of inequality (RII) based on adult education was calculated for comparability across countries and generations. Cox regression models were applied to estimate relative inequality in pancreatic cancer risk, stratifying by age, gender, and center, and adjusting for known pancreatic cancer risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 1,223 incident pancreatic cancer cases were included after a mean follow-up of 13.9 (±4.0) years. An inverse social trend was found in models adjusted for age, sex, and center for both sexes [HR of RII, 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02-1.59], which was also significant among women (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.05-1.92). Further adjusting by smoking intensity, alcohol consumption, body mass index, prevalent diabetes, and physical activity led to an attenuation of the RII risk and loss of statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: The present reanalysis does not sustain the existence of an independent social inequality influence on pancreatic cancer risk in Western European women and men, using an index based on adult education, the most relevant social indicator linked to individual lifestyles, in a context of very low pancreatic cancer survival from (quasi) universal public health systems. IMPACT: The results do not support an association between education and risk of pancreatic cancer.

Is loneliness associated with increased health and social care utilisation in the oldest old? Findings from a population-based longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVES: The present study aimed to examine the impact of loneliness on health and social care service use in the oldest old over a 7-year follow-up. DESIGN: Prospective study. SETTING: UK population-based cohort. PARTICIPANTS: 713 people aged 80 years or older were interviewed at wave 3 of the Cambridge City over-75s Cohort Study. Of these, 665 provided data on loneliness. During 7 years' follow-up, 480 participants left the study, of which 389 due to death. 162 still in the study answered the loneliness question. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Use of health and social care services, assessed at each wave from wave 3 to wave 5. RESULTS: At wave 3, of 665 participants who had data on loneliness, about 60% did not feel lonely, 16% felt slightly lonely and 25% felt lonely. Being slightly lonely at wave 3 was associated with a shorter time since last seeing a general practitioner (ß=-0.5, 95% CI: -0.8 to -0.2); when examining the association between time-varying loneliness and health and social care usage, being lonely was associated with three times greater likelihood of having contact with community nurses and using meals on wheels services (community nurse contact: incidence rate ratio (IRR)=3.4, 95% CI: 1.4 to 8.7; meals on wheels service use: IRR=2.5, 95% CI: 1.1 to 5.6). No associations between loneliness and other health and social care services use were found. CONCLUSION: Loneliness was a significant risk factor for certain types of health and social care utilisations, independently of participants' health conditions, in the oldest old. Study findings have several implications, including the need for awareness-raising and prevention of loneliness to be priorities for public health policy and practice.

Monthly High-Dose Vitamin D Supplementation and Cancer Risk: A Post Hoc Analysis of the Vitamin D Assessment Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Previous randomized clinical trials have reported inconsistent results on the effect of vitamin D supplementation on cancer incidence. Objective: To examine whether high-dose vitamin D supplementation received monthly, without calcium, is associated with a reduction in cancer incidence and cancer mortality in the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a post hoc analysis of data from the Vitamin D Assessment (ViDA) study, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial that recruited participants from family practices and community groups in Auckland, New Zealand, from April 5, 2011, through November 6, 2012, with follow-up completed December 31, 2015. Participants were adult community residents aged 50 to 84 years. Of 47 905 adults invited from family practices and 163 from community groups, 5110 participants were randomized to receive vitamin D3 (n = 2558) or placebo (n = 2552). Two participants withdrew consent, and all others (n = 5108) were included in the primary analysis. Data analysis was by intention to treat. Interventions: Oral vitamin D3, in an initial bolus dose of 200 000 IU and followed by monthly doses of 100 000 IU, or placebo for a median of 3.3 years (range, 2.5-4.2 years). Main Outcomes and Measures: Post hoc primary outcome was the number of all primary invasive and in situ malignant neoplasms (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) diagnosed from randomization until the study medication was discontinued on July 31, 2015. Results: Of the 5108 participants included in the analysis, the mean (SD) age was 65.9 (8.3) years, 58.1% were male, and 4253 (83.3%) were of European or another race/ethnicity, with the remainder being Polynesian or South Asian. Mean (SD) baseline deseasonalized 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration was 26.5 (9.0) ng/mL. In a random sample of 438 participants, the mean follow-up 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration consistently was greater than 20 ng/mL higher in the vitamin D group than in the placebo group. The primary outcome of cancer comprised 328 total cases of cancer (259 invasive and 69 in situ malignant neoplasms) and occurred in 165 of 2558 participants (6.5%) in the vitamin D group and 163 of 2550 (6.4%) in the placebo group, yielding an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.01 (95% CI, 0.81-1.25; P = .95). Conclusions and Relevance: High-dose vitamin D supplementation prescribed monthly for up to 4 years without calcium may not prevent cancer. This study suggests that daily or weekly dosing for a longer period may require further study. Trial Registration: anzctr.org.au Identifier: ACTRN12611000402943.

Monthly vitamin D supplementation, pain, and pattern of analgesic prescription: secondary analysis from the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Vitamin D Assessment study.

Observational studies suggest that vitamin D deficiency is associated with higher risk of pain. However, evidence on the effect of vitamin D supplementation on pain is limited and contradictory. The aim of this study was to compare the effect of monthly high-dose vitamin D supplementation on a pain impact questionnaire (PIQ-6) score and prescription of analgesics in the general population. We performed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of 5108 community-dwelling participants, aged 50 to 84 years, who were randomly assigned to receive monthly 100,000-IU capsules of vitamin D3 (n = 2558) or placebo (n = 2550) for a median of 3.3 years. The PIQ-6 was administered at baseline, year 1, and final follow-up. Analgesic prescription data were collected from Ministry of Health. There was no difference in mean PIQ-6 score at the end of follow-up (adjusted mean difference: 0.06; P = 0.82) between the vitamin D (n = 2041) and placebo (n = 2014) participants. The proportion of participants dispensed one or more opioids was similar in the vitamin D group (n = 559, 21.9%) compared with placebo (n = 593, 23.3%); the relative risk (RR) adjusted for age, sex, and ethnicity was 0.94 (P = 0.24). Similar results were observed for dispensing of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (RR = 0.94; P = 0.24) and other nonopioids (RR = 0.98; P = 0.34). Focusing on vitamin D deficient participants (<50 nmol/L, 24.9%), there was a lower risk of dispensing nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in the vitamin D group compared with placebo (RR = 0.87; P = 0.009); all other subgroup analyses were not significant. Long-term monthly high-dose vitamin D supplementation did not improve mean PIQ-6 score or reduce analgesic dispensing in the general population.

Longitudinal associations between built environment characteristics and changes in active commuting.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have assessed the predictors of changes in commuting. This study investigated the associations between physical environmental characteristics and changes in active commuting. METHODS: Adults from the population-based European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort self-reported commuting patterns in 2000 and 2007. Active commuters were defined as those who reported 'always' or 'usually' walking or cycling to work. Environmental attributes around the home and route were assessed using Geographical Information Systems. Associations between potential environmental predictors and uptake and maintenance of active commuting were modelled using logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex and BMI. RESULTS: Of the 2757 participants (62% female, median baseline age: 52, IQR: 50-56 years), most were passive commuters at baseline (76%, n = 2099) and did not change their usual commute mode over 7 years (82%, n = 2277). In multivariable regression models, participants living further from work were less likely to take up active commuting and those living in neighbourhoods with more streetlights were more likely to take up active commuting (both p < 0.05). Findings for maintenance were similar: participants living further from work (over 10 km, OR: 0.06; 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.13) and had a main or secondary road on route were more likely to maintain their active commuting (OR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.28 to 0.98). Those living in neighbourhoods with greater density of employment locations were more likely to maintain their active commuting. CONCLUSIONS: Co-locating residential and employment centres as well as redesigning urban areas to improve safety for pedestrians and cyclists may encourage active commuting. Future evaluative studies should seek to assess the effects of redesigning the built environment on active commuting and physical activity.

Sex differences in the association between area deprivation and generalised anxiety disorder: British population study.

OBJECTIVE: Studies have shown that area-level deprivation measured by factors, such as non-home ownership, non-car ownership and household overcrowding, can increase the risk for mental disorders over and above individual-level circumstances, such as education and social class. Whether area-level deprivation is associated with generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) independent of personal circumstances, and whether this association is different between British women and men is unknown. DESIGN: Large, population study. SETTING: UK population-based cohort. PARTICIPANTS: 30 445 people from the general population aged 40 years and older and living in England consented to participate at study baseline, and of these, 21 921 participants completed a structured health and lifestyle questionnaire used to capture GAD. Area deprivation was measured in 1991 using Census data, and GAD was assessed in 1996-2000. 10 275 women and 8219 men had complete data on all covariates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Past-year GAD defined according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV). RESULTS: In this study, 2.5% (261/10 275) of women and 1.8% (145/8219) of men had GAD. Women living in the most deprived areas were over 60% more likely to develop anxiety than those living in areas that were not deprived (OR=1.63, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.21; p=0.001), but this association between deprivation and GAD was not apparent in men (OR=1.13, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.77; p=0.598). CONCLUSIONS: The absolute numbers of people living in deprived conditions are large worldwide. This, combined with a growing mental health burden, means that the findings obtained in this study remain highly relevant. The WHO has emphasised the need to reduce social and health inequalities. Our findings provide a strong evidence base to this call, showing that the environment needs to be taken into account when developing mental health policy; gender is important when it comes to assessing the influence of the environment on our mental health.

Effect of Monthly High-Dose Vitamin D Supplementation on Cardiovascular Disease in the Vitamin D Assessment Study : A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Cohort studies have reported increased incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among individuals with low vitamin D status. To date, randomized clinical trials of vitamin D supplementation have not found an effect, possibly because of using too low a dose of vitamin D. Objective: To examine whether monthly high-dose vitamin D supplementation prevents CVD in the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Vitamin D Assessment Study is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial that recruited participants mostly from family practices in Auckland, New Zealand, from April 5, 2011, through November 6, 2012, with follow-up until July 2015. Participants were community-resident adults aged 50 to 84 years. Of 47 905 adults invited from family practices and 163 from community groups, 5110 participants were randomized to receive vitamin D3 (n = 2558) or placebo (n = 2552). Two participants retracted consent, and all others (n = 5108) were included in the primary analysis. Interventions: Oral vitamin D3 in an initial dose of 200 000 IU, followed a month later by monthly doses of 100 000 IU, or placebo for a median of 3.3 years (range, 2.5-4.2 years). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the number of participants with incident CVD and death, including a prespecified subgroup analysis in participants with vitamin D deficiency (baseline deseasonalized 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels <20 ng/mL). Secondary outcomes were myocardial infarction, angina, heart failure, hypertension, arrhythmias, arteriosclerosis, stroke, and venous thrombosis. Results: Of the 5108 participants included in the analysis, the mean (SD) age was 65.9 (8.3) years, 2969 (58.1%) were male, and 4253 (83.3%) were of European or other ethnicity, with the remainder being Polynesian or South Asian. Mean (SD) baseline deseasonalized 25(OH)D concentration was 26.5 (9.0) ng/mL, with 1270 participants (24.9%) being vitamin D deficient. In a random sample of 438 participants, the mean follow-up 25(OH)D level was greater than 20 ng/mL higher in the vitamin D group than in the placebo group. The primary outcome of CVD occurred in 303 participants (11.8%) in the vitamin D group and 293 participants (11.5%) in the placebo group, yielding an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.02 (95% CI, 0.87-1.20). Similar results were seen for participants with baseline vitamin D deficiency and for secondary outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance: Monthly high-dose vitamin D supplementation does not prevent CVD. This result does not support the use of monthly vitamin D supplementation for this purpose. The effects of daily or weekly dosing require further study. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: ACTRN12611000402943.

Dietary Diversity, Diet Cost, and Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in the United Kingdom: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Diet is a key modifiable risk factor for multiple chronic conditions, including type 2 diabetes (T2D). Consuming a range of foods from the five major food groups is advocated as critical to healthy eating, but the association of diversity across major food groups with T2D is not clear and the relationship of within-food-group diversity is unknown. In addition, there is a growing price gap between more and less healthy foods, which may limit the uptake of varied diets. The current study had two aims: first, to examine the association of reported diversity of intake of food groups as well as their subtypes with risk of developing T2D, and second, to estimate the monetary cost associated with dietary diversity. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A prospective study of 23,238 participants in the population-based EPIC-Norfolk cohort completed a baseline Food Frequency Questionnaire in 1993-1997 and were followed up for a median of 10 y. We derived a total diet diversity score and additional scores for diversity within each food group (dairy products, fruits, vegetables, meat and alternatives, and grains). We used multivariable Cox regression analyses for incident diabetes (892 new cases), and multivariable linear regression for diet cost. Greater total diet diversity was associated with 30% lower risk of developing T2D (Hazard ratio [HR] 0.70 [95% CI 0.51 to 0.95]) comparing diets comprising all five food groups to those with three or fewer, adjusting for confounders including obesity and socioeconomic status. In analyses of diversity within each food group, greater diversity in dairy products (HR 0.61 [0.45 to 0.81]), fruits (HR 0.69 [0.52 to 0.90]), and vegetables (HR 0.67 [0.52 to 0.87]) were each associated with lower incident diabetes. The cost of consuming a diet covering all 5 food groups was 18% higher (£4.15/day [4.14 to 4.16]) than one comprising three or fewer groups. Key limitations are the self-reported dietary data and the binary scoring approach whereby some food groups contained both healthy and less healthy food items. CONCLUSIONS: A diet characterized by regular consumption of all five food groups and by greater variety of dairy, fruit, and vegetable subtypes, appears important for a reduced risk of diabetes. However, such a diet is more expensive. Public health efforts to prevent diabetes should include food price policies to promote healthier, more varied diets.

Repeat Cardiovascular Risk Assessment after Four Years: Is There Improvement in Risk Prediction?

BACKGROUND: Framingham risk equations are widely used to predict cardiovascular disease based on health information from a single time point. Little is known regarding use of information from repeat risk assessments and temporal change in estimated cardiovascular risk for prediction of future cardiovascular events. This study was aimed to compare the discrimination and risk reclassification of approaches using estimated cardiovascular risk at single and repeat risk assessments. METHODS: Using data on 12,197 individuals enrolled in EPIC-Norfolk cohort, with 12 years of follow-up, we examined rates of cardiovascular events by levels of estimated absolute risk (Framingham risk score) at the first and second health examination four years later. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (aROC) and risk reclassification, comparing approaches using information from single and repeat risk assessments (i.e., estimated risk at different time points). RESULTS: The mean Framingham risk score increased from 15.5% to 17.5% over a mean of 3.7 years from the first to second health examination. Individuals with high estimated risk (≥20%) at both health examinations had considerably higher rates of cardiovascular events than those who remained in the lowest risk category (<10%) in both health examinations (34.0 [95%CI 31.7-36.6] and 2.7 [2.2-3.3] per 1,000 person-years respectively). Using information from the most up-to-date risk assessment resulted in a small non-significant change in risk classification over the previous risk assessment (net reclassification improvement of -4.8%, p>0.05). Using information from both risk assessments slightly improved discrimination compared to information from a single risk assessment (aROC 0.76 and 0.75 respectively, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Using information from repeat risk assessments over a period of four years modestly improved prediction, compared to using data from a single risk assessment. However, this approach did not improve risk classification.

The Vitamin D Assessment (ViDA) Study: design of a randomized controlled trial of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, acute respiratory infection, falls and non-vertebral fractures.

Observational studies have shown that low vitamin D status is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, acute respiratory infection, falls and non-vertebral fractures. We recruited 5110 Auckland adults, aged 50-84 years, into a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to test whether vitamin D supplementation protects against these four major outcomes. The intervention is a monthly cholecalciferol dose of 100,000IU (2.5mg) for an estimated median 3.3 years (range 2.5-4.2) during 2011-2015. Participants were recruited primarily from family practices, plus community groups with a high proportion of Maori, Pacific, or South Asian individuals. The baseline evaluation included medical history, lifestyle, physical measurements (e.g. blood pressure, arterial waveform, lung function, muscle function), and a blood sample (stored at -80°C for later testing). Capsules are being mailed to home addresses with a questionnaire to collect data on non-hospitalized outcomes and to monitor adherence and potential adverse effects. Other data sources include New Zealand Ministry of Health data on mortality, hospitalization, cancer registrations and dispensed pharmaceuticals. A random sample of 438 participants returned for annual collection of blood samples to monitor adherence and safety (hypercalcemia), including repeat physical measurements at 12 months follow-up. The trial will allow testing of a priori hypotheses on several other endpoints including: weight, blood pressure, arterial waveform parameters, heart rate variability, lung function, muscle strength, gait and balance, mood, psoriasis, bone density, and chronic pain.

Area deprivation and age related macular degeneration in the EPIC-Norfolk Eye Study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relationship between area deprivation, individual socio-economic status (SES) and age related macular degeneration (AMD). STUDY DESIGN: Cross sectional study nested within a longitudinal cohort study. METHODS: Data were collected in the EPIC-Norfolk Eye Study by trained nurses, using standardized protocols and lifestyle questionnaires. The English Index of multiple deprivation 2010 (IMD) was derived from participants' postcodes. AMD was identified from standardized grading of fundus photographs. Logistic regression was used to examine associations between IMD, SES and AMD. RESULTS: 5344 pairs (62.0% of total 8623) of fundus photographs were of sufficient quality for grading of AMD. Of 5182 participants with complete data, AMD was identified in 653 participants (12.60%, 95%CI = 11.7-13.5%). Multivariable logistic regression showed that people living in the most affluent 5% of areas had nearly half the odds of AMD compared to those living in comparatively more deprived areas (OR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.36-0.89, P = 0.02), after adjusting for age, sex, education, social class and smoking. CONCLUSIONS: The authors found that living in the most affluent areas exerted a protective effect on AMD, independently of education and social class. Further investigation into underlying mechanisms will inform potential interventions to reduce health inequalities relating to AMD.

Performance of the CHARGE-AF risk model for incident atrial fibrillation in the EPIC Norfolk cohort.

BACKGROUND: Identification of individuals at risk for developing atrial fibrillation (AF) will help to target screening and preventive interventions. We aimed to validate the CHARGE-AF model (including variables age, race, height, weight, blood pressure, smoking, antihypertensive medication, diabetes, myocardial infarction and heart failure) for prediction of five-year incident AF in a representative European population with a wide age range. METHODS AND RESULTS: The CHARGE-AF model was calculated in 24,020 participants of the population-based EPIC Norfolk study with 236 cases of hospitalization with diagnosis of AF within five years. The model showed good discrimination (c-statistic 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75-0.85), but weak calibration (Chi(2)-statistic 142) with an almost two-fold overestimation of AF incidence. A recalibration to characteristics of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Norfolk cohort improved calibration considerably (Chi(2)-statistic 13.3), with acceptable discrimination in participants both >65 and ≤65 years of age (c-statistics 0.70, 95% CI 0.61-0.77 and 0.83, 95% CI 0.74-0.88). The recalibrated model also showed good discrimination in participants free of cardiovascular disease (c-statistics 0.80, 95% CI 0.75-0.84). Categories of predicted risk (<2.5%, 2.5-5% or >5%) showed good concordance with observed five-year AF incidence of 0.62%, 3.49% and 8.74% (log rank test p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSION: A recalibration of the CHARGE-AF model is necessary for accurate predictions of five-year risk of AF in the EPIC Norfolk population. The recalibrated model showed good discrimination across a wide age range and in individuals free of cardiovascular disease, and hence is broadly applicable in primary care to identify people at risk for development of AF.

Distribution of lipid parameters according to different socio-economic indicators- the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population study.

BACKGROUND: Data on the relationship between plasma levels of cholesterol and triglycerides and social class have been inconsistent. Most previous studies have used one classification of social class. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional population based study with data on occupational social class, educational level obtained using a detailed health and lifestyle questionnaire. A total of 10,147 men and 12,304 women aged 45-80 years living in Norfolk, United Kingdom, were recruited using general practice age-sex registers as part of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC-Norfolk). Plasma levels of cholesterol and triglycerides were measured in baseline samples. Social class was classified according to three classifications: occupation, educational level, and area deprivation score according to Townsend deprivation index. Differences in lipid levels by socio-economic status indices were quantified by analysis of variance (ANOVA) and multiple linear regression after adjusting for body mass index and alcohol consumption. RESULTS: Total cholesterol levels were associated with occupational level among men, and with educational level among women. Triglyceride levels were associated with educational level and occupational level among women, but the latter association was lost after adjustment for age and body mass index. HDL-cholesterol levels were associated with both educational level and educational level among men and women. The relationships with educational level were substantially attenuated by adjustment for age, body mass index and alcohol use, whereas the association with educational class was retained upon adjustment. LDL-cholesterol levels were not associated with social class indices among men, but a positive association was observed with educational class among women. This association was not affected by adjustment for age, body mass index and alcohol use. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study suggest that there are sex differences in the association between socio-economic status and serum lipid levels. The variations in lipid profile with socio-economic status may be largely attributed to potentially modifiable factors such as obesity, physical activity and dietary intake.

Nutrient patterns and their food sources in an International Study Setting: report from the EPIC study.

BACKGROUND: Compared to food patterns, nutrient patterns have been rarely used particularly at international level. We studied, in the context of a multi-center study with heterogeneous data, the methodological challenges regarding pattern analyses. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We identified nutrient patterns from food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study and used 24-hour dietary recall (24-HDR) data to validate and describe the nutrient patterns and their related food sources. Associations between lifestyle factors and the nutrient patterns were also examined. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied on 23 nutrients derived from country-specific FFQ combining data from all EPIC centers (N = 477,312). Harmonized 24-HDRs available for a representative sample of the EPIC populations (N = 34,436) provided accurate mean group estimates of nutrients and foods by quintiles of pattern scores, presented graphically. An overall PCA combining all data captured a good proportion of the variance explained in each EPIC center. Four nutrient patterns were identified explaining 67% of the total variance: Principle component (PC) 1 was characterized by a high contribution of nutrients from plant food sources and a low contribution of nutrients from animal food sources; PC2 by a high contribution of micro-nutrients and proteins; PC3 was characterized by polyunsaturated fatty acids and vitamin D; PC4 was characterized by calcium, proteins, riboflavin, and phosphorus. The nutrients with high loadings on a particular pattern as derived from country-specific FFQ also showed high deviations in their mean EPIC intakes by quintiles of pattern scores when estimated from 24-HDR. Center and energy intake explained most of the variability in pattern scores. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The use of 24-HDR enabled internal validation and facilitated the interpretation of the nutrient patterns derived from FFQs in term of food sources. These outcomes open research opportunities and perspectives of using nutrient patterns in future studies particularly at international level.

Daytime napping and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a 13-year follow-up of a British population.

Epidemiologic studies have reported conflicting results on the relationship between daytime napping and mortality risk, and there are few data on the potential association in the British population. We investigated the associations between daytime napping and all-cause or cause-specific mortality in the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer-Norfolk study, a British population-based cohort study. Among the 16,374 men and women who answered questions on napping habits between 1998 and 2000, a total of 3,251 died during the 13-year follow-up. Daytime napping was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (for napping less than 1 hour per day on average, hazard ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.27; for napping 1 hour or longer per day on average, hazard ratio = 1.32, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.68), independent of age, sex, social class, educational level, marital status, employment status, body mass index, physical activity level, smoking status, alcohol intake, depression, self-reported general health, use of hypnotic drugs or other medications, time spent in bed at night, and presence of preexisting health conditions. This association was more pronounced for death from respiratory diseases (for napping less than 1 hour, hazard ratio = 1.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.95, 2.05; for napping 1 hour or more, hazard ratio = 2.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.34, 4.86) and in individuals 65 years of age or younger. Excessive daytime napping might be a useful marker of underlying health risk, particularly of respiratory problems, especially among those 65 years of age or younger. Further research is required to clarify the nature of the observed association.

Self-reported sleep patterns in a British population cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Sleep patterns have been linked to various health outcomes, but sleep patterns in the British population have not been extensively reported. We aimed to describe the sleep characteristics reported by the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk participants, with a particular emphasis on the comparison of measures of sleep quantity. METHODS: From 2006 to 2007, a total of 8480 participants aged 45-90 years reported sleep timing, nighttime sleep duration, and sleep difficulties. Time in bed (TIB) was calculated from the difference between rise time and bedtime, and sleep proportion was defined as the ratio of sleep duration and TIB. RESULTS: On average, the reported TIB was more than 1.5h longer than sleep durations. Compared to men, women spent 15 min longer in bed, but they slept for 11 min less and reported more sleep difficulties. In multivariate analysis sleep duration and TIB varied with socioeconomic factors, but sleep proportion was consistently lower among women, nonworkers, and older individuals, as well as those who were widowed, separated, or divorced; those who reported sleep difficulties and more frequently used sleep medication; and those who had lower education, poorer general health, or a major depressive disorder (MDD). CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported sleep duration and TIB have different meanings and implications for health. Sleep proportion may be a useful indicator of sleep patterns in the general population.

Crowdsourcing as a novel technique for retinal fundus photography classification: analysis of images in the EPIC Norfolk cohort on behalf of the UK Biobank Eye and Vision Consortium.

AIM: Crowdsourcing is the process of outsourcing numerous tasks to many untrained individuals. Our aim was to assess the performance and repeatability of crowdsourcing for the classification of retinal fundus photography. METHODS: One hundred retinal fundus photograph images with pre-determined disease criteria were selected by experts from a large cohort study. After reading brief instructions and an example classification, we requested that knowledge workers (KWs) from a crowdsourcing platform classified each image as normal or abnormal with grades of severity. Each image was classified 20 times by different KWs. Four study designs were examined to assess the effect of varying incentive and KW experience in classification accuracy. All study designs were conducted twice to examine repeatability. Performance was assessed by comparing the sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: Without restriction on eligible participants, two thousand classifications of 100 images were received in under 24 hours at minimal cost. In trial 1 all study designs had an AUC (95%CI) of 0.701(0.680-0.721) or greater for classification of normal/abnormal. In trial 1, the highest AUC (95%CI) for normal/abnormal classification was 0.757 (0.738-0.776) for KWs with moderate experience. Comparable results were observed in trial 2. In trial 1, between 64-86% of any abnormal image was correctly classified by over half of all KWs. In trial 2, this ranged between 74-97%. Sensitivity was ≥ 96% for normal versus severely abnormal detections across all trials. Sensitivity for normal versus mildly abnormal varied between 61-79% across trials. CONCLUSIONS: With minimal training, crowdsourcing represents an accurate, rapid and cost-effective method of retinal image analysis which demonstrates good repeatability. Larger studies with more comprehensive participant training are needed to explore the utility of this compelling technique in large scale medical image analysis.