Development and Validation of a Risk Score Predicting Death Without Transplant in Adult Heart Transplant Candidates.

Importance: The US heart allocation system prioritizes medically urgent candidates with a high risk of dying without transplant. The current therapy-based 6-status system is susceptible to manipulation and has limited rank ordering ability. Objective: To develop and validate a candidate risk score that incorporates current clinical, laboratory, and hemodynamic data. Design, Setting, and Participants: A registry-based observational study of adult heart transplant candidates (aged ≥18 years) from the US heart allocation system listed between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2022, split by center into training (70%) and test (30%) datasets. Adult candidates were listed between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: A US candidate risk score (US-CRS) model was developed by adding a predefined set of predictors to the current French Candidate Risk Score (French-CRS) model. Sensitivity analyses were performed, which included intra-aortic balloon pumps (IABP) and percutaneous ventricular assist devices (VAD) in the definition of short-term mechanical circulatory support (MCS) for the US-CRS. Performance of the US-CRS model, French-CRS model, and 6-status model in the test dataset was evaluated by time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for death without transplant within 6 weeks and overall survival concordance (c-index) with integrated AUC. Results: A total of 16 905 adult heart transplant candidates were listed (mean [SD] age, 53 [13] years; 73% male; 58% White); 796 patients (4.7%) died without a transplant. The final US-CRS contained time-varying short-term MCS (ventricular assist-extracorporeal membrane oxygenation or temporary surgical VAD), the log of bilirubin, estimated glomerular filtration rate, the log of B-type natriuretic peptide, albumin, sodium, and durable left ventricular assist device. In the test dataset, the AUC for death within 6 weeks of listing for the US-CRS model was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75-0.83), for the French-CRS model was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.67-0.76), and 6-status model was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.62-0.73). Overall c-index for the US-CRS model was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.73-0.80), for the French-CRS model was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.65-0.73), and 6-status model was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.63-0.71). Classifying IABP and percutaneous VAD as short-term MCS reduced the effect size by 54%. Conclusions and Relevance: In this registry-based study of US heart transplant candidates, a continuous multivariable allocation score outperformed the 6-status system in rank ordering heart transplant candidates by medical urgency and may be useful for the medical urgency component of heart allocation.

Disparities in donor heart acceptance between the USA and Europe: clinical implications.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Given limited evidence and lack of consensus on donor acceptance for heart transplant (HT), selection practices vary widely across HT centres in the USA. Similar variation likely exists on a broader scale-across countries and HT systems-but remains largely unexplored. This study characterized differences in heart donor populations and selection practices between the USA and Eurotransplant-a consortium of eight European countries-and their implications for system-wide outcomes. METHODS: Characteristics of adult reported heart donors and their utilization (the percentage of reported donors accepted for HT) were compared between Eurotransplant (n = 8714) and the USA (n = 60 882) from 2010 to 2020. Predictors of donor acceptance were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Additional analyses estimated the impact of achieving Eurotransplant-level utilization in the USA amongst donors of matched quality, using probability of acceptance as a marker of quality. RESULTS: Eurotransplant reported donors were older with more cardiovascular risk factors but with higher utilization than in the USA (70% vs. 44%). Donor age, smoking history, and diabetes mellitus predicted non-acceptance in the USA and, by a lesser magnitude, in Eurotransplant; donor obesity and hypertension predicted non-acceptance in the USA only. Achieving Eurotransplant-level utilization amongst the top 30%-50% of donors (by quality) would produce an additional 506-930 US HTs annually. CONCLUSIONS: Eurotransplant countries exhibit more liberal donor heart acceptance practices than the USA. Adopting similar acceptance practices could help alleviate the scarcity of donor hearts and reduce waitlist morbidity in the USA.

Optimal patient selection for simultaneous heart-kidney transplant: A modified cost-effectiveness analysis.

Increasing rates of simultaneous heart-kidney (SHK) transplant in the United States exacerbate the overall shortage of deceased donor kidneys (DDK). Current allocation policy does not impose constraints on SHK eligibility, and how best to do so remains unknown. We apply a decision-analytic model to evaluate options for heart transplant (HT) candidates with comorbid kidney dysfunction. We compare SHK with a "Safety Net" strategy, in which DDK transplant is performed 6 months after HT, only if native kidneys do not recover. We identify patient subsets for whom SHK using a DDK is efficient, considering the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains from DDKs instead allocated for kidney transplant-only. For an average-aged candidate with a 50% probability of kidney recovery after HT-only, SHK produces 0.64 more QALYs than Safety Net at a cost of 0.58 more kidneys used. SHK is inefficient in this scenario, producing fewer QALYs per DDK used (1.1) than a DDK allocated for KT-only (2.2). SHK is preferred to Safety Net only for candidates with a lower probability of native kidney recovery (24%-38%, varying by recipient age). This finding favors the implementation of a Safety Net provision and should inform the establishment of objective criteria for SHK transplant eligibility.

Cost-effectiveness and system-wide impact of using Hepatitis C-viremic donors for heart transplant.

BACKGROUND: The advent of direct-acting antiviral therapy for Hepatitis C (HCV) has made using HCV-viremic donors a viable strategy to address the donor shortage in heart transplantation. We employed a large-scale simulation to evaluate the impact and cost-effectiveness of using HCV-viremic donors for heart transplant. METHODS: We simulated detailed histories from time of listing until death for the real-world cohort of all adults listed for heart transplant in the United States from July 2014 to June 2019 (n = 19,346). This population was imputed using historical data and captures "real-world" heterogeneity in geographic and clinical characteristics. We estimated the impact of an intervention in which all candidates accept HCV+ potential donors (n = 472) on transplant volume, waitlist outcomes, and lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). RESULTS: The intervention produced 232 more transplants, 132 fewer delistings due to deterioration, and 50 fewer waitlist deaths within this 5-year cohort and reduced wait times by 3% to 11% (varying by priority status). The intervention was cost-effective, adding an average of 0.08 QALYs per patient at a cost of $124 million ($81,892 per QALY). DAA therapy and HCV care combined account for 11% this cost, with the remainder due to higher costs of transplant procedures and routine post-transplant care. The impact on transplant volume varied by blood type and region and was correlated with donor-to-candidate ratio (ρ = 0.71). CONCLUSIONS: Transplanting HCV+ donor hearts is likely to be cost-effective and improve waitlist outcomes, particularly in regions and subgroups experiencing high donor scarcity.

Prognostic value of comprehensive intracoronary physiology assessment early after heart transplantation.

AIMS: We evaluated the long-term prognostic value of invasively assessing coronary physiology after heart transplantation in a large multicentre registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: Comprehensive intracoronary physiology assessment measuring fractional flow reserve (FFR), the index of microcirculatory resistance (IMR), and coronary flow reserve (CFR) was performed in 254 patients at baseline (a median of 7.2 weeks) and in 240 patients at 1 year after transplantation (199 patients had both baseline and 1-year measurement). Patients were classified into those with normal physiology, reduced FFR (FFR ≤ 0.80), and microvascular dysfunction (either IMR ≥ 25 or CFR ≤ 2.0 with FFR > 0.80). The primary outcome was the composite of death or re-transplantation at 10 years. At baseline, 5.5% had reduced FFR; 36.6% had microvascular dysfunction. Baseline reduced FFR [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88-6.15; P = 0.088] and microvascular dysfunction (aHR 0.88, 95% CI 0.44-1.79; P = 0.73) were not predictors of death and re-transplantation at 10 years. At 1 year, 5.0% had reduced FFR; 23.8% had microvascular dysfunction. One-year reduced FFR (aHR 2.98, 95% CI 1.13-7.87; P = 0.028) and microvascular dysfunction (aHR 2.33, 95% CI 1.19-4.59; P = 0.015) were associated with significantly increased risk of death or re-transplantation at 10 years. Invasive measures of coronary physiology improved the prognostic performance of clinical variables (χ2 improvement: 7.41, P = 0.006). However, intravascular ultrasound-derived changes in maximal intimal thickness were not predictive of outcomes. CONCLUSION: Abnormal coronary physiology 1 year after heart transplantation was common and was a significant predictor of death or re-transplantation at 10 years.

Cost-effectiveness of Dapagliflozin for Treatment of Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction.

Importance: In the Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure (DAPA-HF) trial, dapagliflozin was shown to reduce cardiovascular mortality and hospitalizations due to heart failure while improving patient-reported health status. However, the cost-effectiveness of adding dapagliflozin therapy to standard of care (SOC) is unknown. Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin therapy among patients with chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Design, Setting, and Participants: This Markov cohort cost-effectiveness model used estimates of therapy effectiveness, transition probabilities, and utilities from the DAPA-HF trial and other published literature. Costs were derived from published sources. Patients with HFrEF included subgroups based on diabetes status and health status impairment due to heart failure. We compiled parameters from the literature including DAPA-HF, on which our model is based, and many other sources from December 2019 to February 27, 2021. We performed our analysis in February 2021. Exposures: Dapagliflozin or SOC. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hospitalizations for heart failure, life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and the cost per QALY gained (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio). Results: In the model, dapagliflozin therapy yielded a mean of 0.78 additional life-years and 0.46 additional QALYs compared with SOC at an incremental cost of $38 212, resulting in a cost per QALY gained of $83 650. The cost per QALY was similar for patients with or without diabetes and for patients with mild or moderate impairment of health status due to heart failure. The cost-effectiveness was most sensitive to estimates of the effect on mortality and duration of therapy effectiveness. If the cost of dapagliflozin decreased from $474 to $270 (43% decline), the cost per QALY gained would drop below $50 000. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that dapagliflozin provides intermediate value compared with SOC, based on American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association benchmarks. Additional data regarding the magnitude of mortality reduction would improve the precision of cost-effectiveness estimates.

Survival Outcomes After Heart Transplantation: Does Recipient Sex Matter?

BACKGROUND: Currently, women represent <25% of heart transplant recipients. Reasons for this female underrepresentation have been attributed to selection and referral bias and potentially poorer outcomes in female recipients. The aim of this study was to compare long-term posttransplant survival between men and women, when matched for recipient and donor characteristics. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation Registry, we performed descriptive analyses and estimated overall freedom from posttransplant death stratified by sex using Kaplan-Meier survival methods. Male and female recipients were matched according to the Index for Mortality Prediction After Cardiac Transplantation and Donor Risk Index score using 1:1 propensity score matching. The study cohort comprised 34 198 heart transplant recipients (76.3% men, 23.7% women) between 2004 and 2014. Compared with men, women were more likely younger (51 [39-59] versus 55 [46-61] years; P<0.001) and had a different distribution of heart failure etiology (P<0.001). In general, the prevalence of comorbidities was lower in women than in men. Women were less likely to have diabetes mellitus (19.1% versus 26.2%; P<0.001), hypertension (40.7% versus 47.9%; P<0.001), peripheral vascular disease (2.4% versus 3.3%; P=0.002), tobacco use (36.5% versus 52.3%; P<0.001), and prior cardiovascular surgery (38.6% versus 50.7%; P<0.001). Women were more likely to have a history of malignancy (10.5% versus 5.3%; P<0.001), require intravenous inotropes (41.4% versus 37.2%; P<0.001), and were less likely supported by an intra-aortic balloon pump (3.3% versus 3.8%; P=0.03) or durable ventricular assist device (22% versus 31.5%; P<0.001). Transplanted male recipients had a higher Index for Mortality Prediction After Cardiac Transplantation score (5 [2-7] versus 4 [1-6]; P<0.001). When male and female heart transplant recipients were matched for recipient and donor characteristics, there was no significant survival difference (P=0.57). CONCLUSIONS: Overall survival does not differ between men and women after cardiac transplantation. Women who survive to heart transplantation appear to have lower risk features than male recipients but receive hearts from higher risk donors.

Gene expression profiling and racial disparities in outcomes after heart transplantation.

BACKGROUND: African Americans (AAs) have lower survival rates after heart transplantation (HTx) than Caucasians. The aim of this analysis was to evaluate racial differences in gene expression and their associations with survival and the composite outcome of death, retransplant, rejection with hemodynamic compromise, and graft dysfunction in the Outcomes AlloMap Registry. METHODS: Registry participants included low-risk Caucasian and AA heart transplant recipients with a baseline and at least 1 follow-up gene expression test (AlloMap(C)) within the first year after HTx. The Kaplan-Meier method with delayed entry was used to describe differences in outcomes. Multivariable Cox hazard regression was used to evaluate the associations of overall gene expression profiling score, MARCH8 and FLT3 expression, and tacrolimus levels with each outcome, and stratified Cox models were developed to quantify race-specific associations. RESULTS: Among 933 eligible recipients, 737 (79%) were Caucasian and 196 (21%) were AA. Compared with Caucasians, AAs were significantly younger (55 vs 59 years, p < 0.001), with higher rates of non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (68% vs 50%, p < 0.001), sensitization (>10% panel reactive antibody, 16% vs 9.1%, p = 0.009), and human leukocyte antigen mismatches (7 vs 7, p = 0.01), but less frequent primary cytomegalovirus serostatus mismatch (14.31% vs 27.3%, p < 0.001). Overall, AAs had an increased adjusted mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR] 4.13, p = 0.007). Higher tacrolimus levels were associated with decreased mortality in AAs (HR 0.62, p = 0.009). Overall gene expression profiling score was associated with increased mortality among Caucasians (HR 1.21, p = 0.048). In Caucasians, but not AAs, overexpression of MARCH8 was associated with increased mortality (HR 2.90, p = 0.001). FLT3 upregulation was associated with increased mortality (HR 2.42, p = 0.033) in AAs. There was an inverse relationship between FLT3 expression and tacrolimus levels (-0.029 and -0.176, respectively) in Caucasians and AAs. CONCLUSIONS: AAs have a significantly higher mortality risk after HTx than Caucasians, even in the low-risk Outcomes AlloMap Registry population. AAs and Caucasians had differential outcomes based upon the varying expression of MARCH8 and FLT3 genes following HTx.

Early invasive assessment of the coronary microcirculation predicts subsequent acute rejection after heart transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Acute allograft rejection (AAR) plays an important role in patient and graft survival; therefore, more emphasis should be placed on its prediction. This study aimed to investigate baseline clinical and diagnostic variables associated with subsequent AAR during the first year post-transplant, especially focusing on early physiologic and anatomic measures. METHODS: This study enrolled 88 heart transplant patients who underwent fractional flow reserve (FFR), coronary flow reserve (CFR), the index of microcirculatory resistance (IMR) and intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) in the left anterior descending artery at baseline (within 8 weeks post-transplant). Cardiac index (CI), pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP), mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP), right atrial pressure and left ventricular ejection fraction were also evaluated. AAR was defined as acute cellular rejection of grade ≥2R and/or pathological antibody-mediated rejection of grade ≥pAMR2. RESULTS: During the first year post-transplant, 25.0% of patients experienced AAR. Patients with AAR during the first year showed higher rates of recipient obesity, lower rates of recipient-donor sex mismatch and rATG and tacrolimus uses, higher PCWP, mPAP and IMR, and lower CFR at baseline, compared with those without. In the multivariate analysis, only baseline IMR ≥ 16.0 was independently associated with AAR during the first year, demonstrating high negative predictive value (96.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Invasively assessing microvascular resistance (baseline IMR ≥ 16.0) in the early post-transplant period was an independent determinant of subsequent acute allograft rejection during the first year post-transplant, suggesting that early assessment of IMR may enhance patient risk stratification and target medical therapies to improve patient outcome.

Attenuated-Signal Plaque Progression Predicts Long-Term Mortality After Heart Transplantation: IVUS Assessment of Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy.

BACKGROUND: Although cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) is typically characterized by diffuse coronary intimal thickening with pathological vessel remodeling, plaque instability may also play an important role in CAV. Previous studies of native coronary atherosclerosis have demonstrated associations between attenuated-signal plaque (ASP), plaque instability, and adverse clinical events. OBJECTIVES: This study's aim was to characterize the association between ASP and long-term mortality post-heart transplantation. METHODS: In 105 heart transplant recipients, serial (baseline and 1-year post-transplant) intravascular ultrasound was performed in the first 50 mm of the left anterior descending artery. The ASP score was calculated by grading the measured angle of attenuation from grades 0 to 4 (specifically, 0°, 1° to 90°, 91° to 180°, 181° to 270°, and >270°) at 1-mm intervals. The primary endpoint was all-cause death or retransplantation. RESULTS: At 1-year post-transplant, 10.5% of patients demonstrated ASP progression (newly developed or increased ASP). Patients with ASP progression had a higher incidence of acute cellular rejection during the first year (63.6% vs. 22.3%; p = 0.006) and tendency for greater intimal growth (percent intimal volume: 9.2 ± 9.3% vs. 4.4 ± 5.3%; p = 0.07) than those without. Over a median follow-up of 4.6 years, there was a significantly lower event-free survival rate in patients with ASP progression at 1-year post-transplant compared with those without. In contrast, maximum intimal thickness did not predict long-term mortality. CONCLUSIONS: ASP progression appears to reflect chronic inflammation related to acute cellular rejection and is an independent predictor of long-term mortality after heart transplantation. Serial assessments of plaque instability may enhance identification of high-risk patients who may benefit from closer follow-up and targeted medical therapies.

Assessment of Heart Transplant Waitlist Time and Pre- and Post-transplant Failure: A Mixed Methods Approach.

BACKGROUND: Over the past two decades, there have been increasingly long waiting times for heart transplantation. We studied the relationship between heart transplant waiting time and transplant failure (removal from the waitlist, pretransplant death, or death or graft failure within 1 year) to determine the risk that conservative donor heart acceptance practices confer in terms of increasing the risk of failure among patients awaiting transplantation. METHODS: We studied a cohort of 28,283 adults registered on the United Network for Organ Sharing heart transplant waiting list between 2000 and 2010. We used Kaplan-Meier methods with inverse probability censoring weights to examine the risk of transplant failure accumulated over time spent on the waiting list (pretransplant). In addition, we used transplant candidate blood type as an instrumental variable to assess the risk of transplant failure associated with increased wait time. RESULTS: Our results show that those who wait longer for a transplant have greater odds of transplant failure. While on the waitlist, the greatest risk of failure is during the first 60 days. Doubling the amount of time on the waiting list was associated with a 10% (1.01, 1.20) increase in the odds of failure within 1 year after transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a relationship between time spent on the waiting list and transplant failure, thereby supporting research aimed at defining adequate donor heart quality and acceptance standards for heart transplantation.

The history of the coronary care unit.

The first coronary care units were established in the early 1960s in an attempt to reduce mortality from acute myocardial infarction. Pioneering cardiologists recognized the threat of death due to malignant arrhythmias in the postinfarction setting, and developed techniques for successful external defibrillation. The ability to abort sudden death led to continuous monitoring of the cardiac rhythm and an organized system of cardiopulmonary resuscitation, incorporating external defibrillation with cardiac drugs and specialized equipment. Arrhythmia monitoring and cardiopulmonary resuscitation could be performed by trained nursing staff, which eliminated delays in treatment and significantly reduced mortality. These early triumphs in aborting sudden death led to the development of techniques to treat cardiogenic shock, limit infarct size and initiate prehospital coronary care, all of which laid the foundation for the current era of interventional cardiology.